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Topic: The Barry Silbert segwit2x agreement with >80% miner support. - page 41. (Read 120014 times)

legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Love the professionalism of:
Quote
LOL

More professional than Barry Silbert and his unethical closed door agreement. ... and also pretty spot on,  segwit2x and the process used to create it isn't just bad, but absurdly so...  as highlighted by jtimon's recent post: https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-June/014661.html

I don't claim to understand all these various technical variations, but it seems to me that even if segwit2x is fucked up and ambiguous, it seems to be serving as a pretty decent vehicle to on board  a large number of folks into segregated witness, which is seeming to make segregated witness more likely to happen, and also on a bit quicker of a timeline. 

So, even if segwit2x is a bunch of nonsense, likely we would not gotten to the likely activation and locking in of segwit?  Sure segwit is not a done deal, yet, and there are a variety of influential factors - but doesn't segwit2x deserve some credit for adding to the likelihood and speed of the real deal seg wit activation and lock in?
staff
Activity: 4284
Merit: 8808
Love the professionalism of:
Quote
LOL

More professional than Barry Silbert and his unethical closed door agreement. ... and also pretty spot on,  segwit2x and the process used to create it isn't just bad, but absurdly so...  as highlighted by jtimon's recent post: https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-June/014661.html
hero member
Activity: 1092
Merit: 552
Retired IRCX God
Love the professionalism of:
Quote
LOL
-ck
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1631
Ruu \o/
Eh? I was talking about the 2MB hard fork component.

EDIT: Oh I see you're saying they won't. Well that's obviously their position for now; I was speaking only hypothetically.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 253

Can someone confirm this? How much support is needed for locking the SegWit? Is it 80% or 95%? I heard that support levels of more than 80% for three days will be enough to lock the SegWit. Also, are they planning to run it from July 7?
80% support with segwit2x for 2 days will mean those miners will then orphan any blocks that are not signalling segwit. That means the chain is then guaranteed to reach 100% within the next 2 weeks (since the chain will only have segwit signalling blocks) which makes it above the 95% threshold to activate regular segwit. Anyone mining on core nodes signalling segwit, or users running core nodes will select the longest compatible chain which is the one with 100% segwit signalled blocks as well.

They're planning to run it on July 14 though they have until July 21 to deploy it.

6 months after the 80% activation threshold is the 2MB hard fork. At that stage anyone running core nodes that are incompatible will end up forked on a separate smaller chain (from that fork point onwards) unless core creates something compatible or the mining consortium no longer agrees to participate in the rest of the segwit2x agreement...

Very informative post. Thanks a lot for spending so much time to explain these things to everyone. So right now, I'd say that SegWit2X is almost a 100% probbaility. Those miners who are opposing it will fall in line, when they realize that they are about to wage a losing battle. Chances of a split are also quite low. 
Segwit is a near certainty, but whether there is a split is much less certain... The 2MB block size is the real obstacle.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1008

Can someone confirm this? How much support is needed for locking the SegWit? Is it 80% or 95%? I heard that support levels of more than 80% for three days will be enough to lock the SegWit. Also, are they planning to run it from July 7?
80% support with segwit2x for 2 days will mean those miners will then orphan any blocks that are not signalling segwit. That means the chain is then guaranteed to reach 100% within the next 2 weeks (since the chain will only have segwit signalling blocks) which makes it above the 95% threshold to activate regular segwit. Anyone mining on core nodes signalling segwit, or users running core nodes will select the longest compatible chain which is the one with 100% segwit signalled blocks as well.

They're planning to run it on July 14 though they have until July 21 to deploy it.

6 months after the 80% activation threshold is the 2MB hard fork. At that stage anyone running core nodes that are incompatible will end up forked on a separate smaller chain (from that fork point onwards) unless core creates something compatible or the mining consortium no longer agrees to participate in the rest of the segwit2x agreement...

Very informative post. Thanks a lot for spending so much time to explain these things to everyone. So right now, I'd say that SegWit2X is almost a 100% probbaility. Those miners who are opposing it will fall in line, when they realize that they are about to wage a losing battle. Chances of a split are also quite low. 
-ck
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1631
Ruu \o/

Can someone confirm this? How much support is needed for locking the SegWit? Is it 80% or 95%? I heard that support levels of more than 80% for three days will be enough to lock the SegWit. Also, are they planning to run it from July 7?
80% support with segwit2x for 2 days will mean those miners will then orphan any blocks that are not signalling segwit. That means the chain is then guaranteed to reach 100% within the next 2 weeks (since the chain will only have segwit signalling blocks) which makes it above the 95% threshold to activate regular segwit. Anyone mining on core nodes signalling segwit, or users running core nodes will select the longest compatible chain which is the one with 100% segwit signalled blocks as well.

They're planning to run it on July 14 though they have until July 21 to deploy it.

6 months after the 80% activation threshold is the 2MB hard fork. At that stage anyone running core nodes that are incompatible will end up forked on a separate smaller chain (from that fork point onwards) unless core creates something compatible or the mining consortium no longer agrees to participate in the rest of the segwit2x agreement...
legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
This may be a dumb question - or an area that has already been covered, but do we have a date in which the segwit2x software will be available for miners to actually run, to change their smoke from "intention" to actual "signaling" that counts towards locking in segwit? 

Accordingly, since BIP141 is already at about 42%, then the segwit2x portion would only need about 53% in order to add up to 95% and then to lock in segwit, right?

Seems like there is enough support.. but an ongoing problem is that there is a difference between actually running software and merely asserting intention.. .. and I know that there is some locking in, as well.. with BIP148 and also with BIP91 that requires them to actually signal segwit which will bring the segwit number close to 100%. 

Somewhere I heard that the miners would have to start running the segwit2x software by July 7 in order to have enough time to lock it in before August 1 and to make BIP148 irrelevant.

Am I on the right track?

Can someone confirm this? How much support is needed for locking the SegWit? Is it 80% or 95%? I heard that support levels of more than 80% for three days will be enough to lock the SegWit. Also, are they planning to run it from July 7?
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
This may be a dumb question - or an area that has already been covered, but do we have a date in which the segwit2x software will be available for miners to actually run, to change their smoke from "intention" to actual "signaling" that counts towards locking in segwit? 

Accordingly, since BIP141 is already at about 42%, then the segwit2x portion would only need about 53% in order to add up to 95% and then to lock in segwit, right?

Seems like there is enough support.. but an ongoing problem is that there is a difference between actually running software and merely asserting intention.. .. and I know that there is some locking in, as well.. with BIP148 and also with BIP91 that requires them to actually signal segwit which will bring the segwit number close to 100%. 

Somewhere I heard that the miners would have to start running the segwit2x software by July 7 in order to have enough time to lock it in before August 1 and to make BIP148 irrelevant.

Am I on the right track?
legendary
Activity: 4410
Merit: 4766
coindesk owned by barry silbert, brother of alan silbert.

alan and barry have at each'satoshi round table' event(which they sponsored/paid for) for last couple years, drummed up some empty craig wright drama to distract the sheep from deeper issues involving other things happening behind the scnes unrelated to CW and related to the roadmap.

inshort if ever there is something CW related.. something else is happening elsewhere they dont want people gossiping about

seems if we ignore this latest CW drama event they want to create. we might find the real story they are trying to avoid being talked about

my theory is if segwit does have legal issues its more about it breaks asicboosts patent and thats why Gmax and crew have been crying that the softfork method of implementing it would ultimately fail. hense all these other bip methods popping up to try getting it activated.

though the real thing alan wants to distract people away from may not even be about segwit legal issues.
either way nothing to concern ourselves with in regards to CW, thats just drama
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
https://twitter.com/alansilbert/status/879699425421135875
 Alan Silbert‏ @alansilbert 5h5 hours ago

Alan Silbert Retweeted CoinDesk

Translation: Craig Wright fabricating FUD before launching competing product. Shame on you @coindesk Title should lead with OpEd

Frequently, I am confused by supposed legal implications of a decentralized system.  Who are they going to prosecute?  Bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 4392
Be a bank
https://twitter.com/alansilbert/status/879699425421135875
 Alan Silbert‏ @alansilbert 5h5 hours ago

Alan Silbert Retweeted CoinDesk

Translation: Craig Wright fabricating FUD before launching competing product. Shame on you @coindesk Title should lead with OpEd
hv_
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1055
Clean Code and Scale
hero member
Activity: 1092
Merit: 552
Retired IRCX God
... He doesn't want to hear that Segwit might not get done...If and when Segwit does activate...
Perhaps that's because he hasn't time for delusional comments?  Roll Eyes
There is no "if" about it in the real world.  Wink

There are 2 near certainties in Bitcoin Core:
  • Even if the Core devs were the only people in the world to support segwit, it would still be in every version of Core from now until the end of time (and they will make every effort to activate it).
  • Even though BDB 4.8 is antiquated by every standard in the world, it will still be the "compatible" db in every version of Core from now until the end of time (and they will make no effort to remove it).
hero member
Activity: 1792
Merit: 534
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Speaking of emotions, I think mister ck is scared... He doesn't want to hear that Segwit might not get done and he's really triggered about "Jihan".
SegWit is happening.  I really don't see why you would think otherwise.

I mean what are the pools going to do?  Look at the code and say "I don't like that line, let's pull out"?  Your logic here doesn't really make any sense here.  It's UASF which has pushed all these sudden solutions through, and I see it as extremely likely that at least one of them, involving SegWit, happens at this point.
sr. member
Activity: 276
Merit: 254
You're really missing the significance of segwit2x. There is no doubt that the main players advertising segwit2x will adopt it. The code already does exist and is complete and they're calling it alpha simply because it hasn't undergone full testing yet.

I dont think it is certain the SegWit2x code is complete now. Jeff Garzik openned issue week ago about the first possible block to be over 1M as mandatory. Requested by Bitmain and BU to implement an anti-wipeout feature. So there is still possibility for the code change, thats why its better to wait for the final code before speculating what happens.

https://github.com/btc1/bitcoin/issues/29
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 504
Why? I think the guy has a point... For instance, if- when- and after SegWit gets locked in (and thus would make BU incompatible with it), there is no guarantee that the whole thing, to some degree, is 'settled'... We have seen many ideas addressing the scaling issue, yet we have also seen neither sides playing it nice. SegWit, Segwit2x, BU, UASF or whatever other proposal which can be labeled as a (temporary) 'answer', is addressing scaling; yet what they all lack, is addressing the emotions that have came along with them... Logic, basic or not, isn't applicable in that case, as logic simply cannot reason with emotions, the same as emotions cannot reason with logic, as in a way they're complete opposites of each other...

Thank you for supporting my suggestions. I think the emotions are merely used to persuade - every actor in this drama has a fairly clear-cut economic interest.  The person screaming the loudest usually just has the worst technical justifications for their solution...

You've misunderstood what I'm flabbergasted by. I never said the whole thing was settled; not even remotely. How many times have I reiterated that what remains a complete mystery is what happens after segwit gets activated when we're staring down the barrel of the 2MB base blocksize (an 8MB overall block weight hence why I add the word base in there). The guy I just put on ignore seems to think this coinbase intention to signal of 85%+ is no guarantee that segwit will get activated and that the BU coinbase signatures used by Jihan and his minions are relevant to that.

Speaking of emotions, I think mister ck is scared... He doesn't want to hear that Segwit might not get done and he's really triggered about "Jihan". A bit of apprehension is understandable: this flight might get bumpy over the next few months... Personally, I am hedging and compiling a bunch of this crap in case I do need to run it... Nonetheless I will believe Segwit2x when I see it. I have seen very little crypto media covering this fork that is supposed to happen in such a short period of time. It's not clear to me at all that this proposal is sound and the code is functional. Core's silence on the matter is downright creepy. 

Honestly I am starting to suspect that Segwit2x is an attempt to leverage the FUD over UASF and UAHF to quickly soft fork to a bastardized Segwit, and then renege on the blocksize increase AGAIN...  If and when Segwit does activate, I've read that Core has to release again to switch everyone to the Segwit coinbase anyway.


sr. member
Activity: 1988
Merit: 453
IMO, no matter what your personal belief is on the subject, anyone that hasn't already accepted that segwit is a 100% certainty is either in denial or delusional. It's been quite a while since the only questions that remained were "when?", "what comes after?", and "...and what else?".  Undecided

It is still not a 100% certainty. More like 90% right now. I checked Coin Dance, and they are still showing 86.8% support for SegWit2X. But this is just "intention" or "support". We don't know whether this support level will remain at the time of implementation. Also, there is a chance that some bug may be found with the SegWit2X code.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 501

I disagree. It is a very biased Utopian vs Evil article.
A summary of nothing useful and I should have switched off as soon as the 'hard brexit' reference comparison was made.
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