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Topic: The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? - page 19. (Read 29279 times)

donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
There might be a bounce up to $120-125, but I sold out the last of the little I had at 105.

Did cost me about 20% of my meager holdings, but I think FIAT is the safest atm. Have put in buy orders at 80-90 though, because I think it might linger in the $100 area before heading further down.
That's the kind of thinking which got us in the economic mess in the first place. You have to learn that there are players out there which prey on that strategy. It's called a stop-loss. While this tactics may make sense in an isolated case, it's a mechanism for them to scare you into giving up your BTC. It's similar to how the banks profit from engineered market crashes.

please let me make this clear:
PEOPLE! Stop playing the games you're not good at. If you're not a trading expert, invest only the money you have set aside for hedging with bitcoin and use PRICE-INDEPENDENT CRITERIA to determine whether to sell or buy (like paying utility bills or having spare USD liquidity). Otherwise you set yourself up for a game in which you have inherently the weaker hand.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
One bitcoin to rule them all!
There might be a bounce up to $120-125, but I sold out the last of the little I had at 105.

Did cost me about 20% of my meager holdings, but I think FIAT is the safest atm. Have put in buy orders at 80-90 though, because I think it might linger in the $100 area before heading further down.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
History doesn't repeat itself. It only rhymes. Your prediction is self defeating if everyone believes it.

Indeed... but not everyone believes it.

See this forum and reddit posts "Wiring money to Gox now...  Oh cheap coins... etc".
newbie
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
See, people keeps saying that, but no one really qualifies what they mean.

Here's what I see:

BTC payment services getting hacked (bitinstant), BTC wallet services being hacked, Lag on the exchanges grinding trading to a halt and killing liquidity, an overinflated price driven by media hype and people looking to get rich quick, an overinflated blockchain that may or may not contain child porn (or links to child porn), an economy driven primarily by drugs and grey market goods, etc, etc

....and thats just the tip of the iceburg.




Frankly, the fundamentals look like shit.


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1888636

Yeah and let's not forget Bitfloor shutting down.
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
Confidence shatters. It's a long slide down folks.

This. We will probably bubble up again eventually (after a period of stability at the bottom), but it's all downside for the forseeable future.

History doesn't repeat itself. It only rhymes. Your prediction is self defeating if everyone believes it.
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
See, people keeps saying that, but no one really qualifies what they mean.

Here's what I see:

BTC payment services getting hacked (bitinstant), BTC wallet services being hacked, Lag on the exchanges grinding trading to a halt and killing liquidity, an overinflated price driven by media hype and people looking to get rich quick, an overinflated blockchain that may or may not contain child porn (or links to child porn), an economy driven primarily by drugs and grey market goods, etc, etc

....and thats just the tip of the iceburg.




Frankly, the fundamentals look like shit.


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1888636
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
daytrader/superhero
Confidence shatters. It's a long slide down folks.

This. We will probably bubble up again eventually (after a period of stability at the bottom), but it's all downside for the forseeable future.
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
daytrader/superhero
Those who are truly confidently bearish on bitcoin (or any commodity/stock) will short sell as hard as possible, given the slightest opportunity. Right?

Not necessarily. I am bearish on bitcoin right now, but I don't see a point in adding more risk to an already extremely risky investment/speculative tool through margin trading.
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
I also think the still-significant risk of BTC crashing to zero is heavily priced into the current market.

The risk of crashing to zero for pure market reasons is zero. Of course there can always be a fat finger....
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Confidence shatters. It's a long slide down folks.
Indeed. We've got a long way down.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Confidence shatters. It's a long slide down folks.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
Jack of oh so many trades.
Down, down, down....
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
Bixcoin Superdouche
Looks like double digits today!
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Annuit cœptis humanae libertas
All these guys who have thousands of Bitcoin who sell during a large movement like this aren't stupid - they're selling for a reason and they know what they are doing.

The reason is they know they will be able to buy it back cheaper.

Selling in order to buy back cheaper isn't stupid, I agree. It's only stupid to think making the initial ask is a risk-free strategy. It is not: it is a wager that the price will fall. Needless to say, short selling is an even bigger wager that the price will fall...

Those who are truly confidently bearish on bitcoin (or any commodity/stock) will short sell as hard as possible, given the slightest opportunity. Right?
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Annuit cœptis humanae libertas
People also have to remember the $400,000 in new money have to come into Bitcoin every day to maintain the current price.
I think this steady inflation is one the reasons why a slow decline in price after a price peak seems to be typical for Bitcoin.

This point is very valid, but the market can price in this extra supply easily enough. The high inflation combined with sheer lack of buyers almost certainly played the central rôle in the 2011 post-bubble decline.

Rather than ask oneself "where is the additional $400k/day value coming from?" one can just assume that there is BTC15-20m already out there (even though it's not and possibly never really will be due to lost 'coins).

I also think the still-significant risk of BTC crashing to zero is heavily priced into the current market.

There is, however, a reason I don't daytrade, and especially not the BTC-fiat crosses. I have turned some profit arbitraging LTC/BTC when the exchange rate rolled up and down fairly predictably like a yo-yo: volatility you can believe in. Grin
hero member
Activity: 894
Merit: 501
I honestly think it is.

I just hope it won't take another 2 years to recover.

I would appreciate a new record before the end of the year.

Slovenia seems to be next for the big haircut. Let Cyprus 2.0 happen and bulls are back in business.

Doesn't bode well for Bitstamp once this bear-phase is through...
legendary
Activity: 2097
Merit: 1070
People also have to remember the $400,000 in new money have to come into Bitcoin every day to maintain the current price.
I think this steady inflation is one the reasons why a slow decline in price after a price peak seems to be typical for Bitcoin.

Good thinking, at this point I think it's worth mentioning that the banks it Japan have closed for the day and due to Bank holidays on Friday and Monday they won't reopen until Tuesday.

So there's no new money (USD) arriving at MtGox until next Tuesday at the earliest.
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
I honestly think it is.

I just hope it won't take another 2 years to recover.

I would appreciate a new record before the end of the year.

Slovenia seems to be next for the big haircut. Let Cyprus 2.0 happen and bulls are back in business.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Quote
There's a large wall at $80 and a huge wall at $70 - these are my targets over the coming weekend.

I chose the same targets on the downside. My ask at $129 went unfilled.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
If someone bought some BTC at $140-150 they are not 'weak' for selling when it's obviously crashing out from underneath them even if they sell at a loss.

Only a stubborn fool would hold onto a bad investment when it's obviously crashing / collpasing in value and you can buy more back cheaper if you sell and potentially make much greater profits in the long run. Knowing when to sell at a loss is very important thing to know. The key is to decide whether it's just a large fluctuation or a much rarer collapse.

For example : If you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115 you initially spent $15,000 and end up with $11,500, a loss on that trade of $3,500.

If the price goes down to $80 you will end up with 143.75 Bitcoin (instead of only 100) assuming you buy back in at $80.

Then you only have to sell at $104 to break even and you have more Bitcoin so as the price rises in the future you will make much more profit than had you been 'strong' and held onto your initial Bitcoin like some kind of idiot while the value crashed through the floor. By the time the price rises back to your initial purchase price you will have much more profit by doing this.


Except, you never know when the price will change direction, and how far it will go. What if, in your example, you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115, and then the price rises back to $200? Now you have no btc and $3500 less than you started with.

Presumably one would buy somewhere along the way....
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