In my opinion, the best time to become a trader is when the market falls off and the price of the different coins are negative and that is one of the best chance to buy a lot of coins and get a chance to earn high profits in the future if you have patience and you choose the right coin to invest in. Just like bitcoin, a few months ago the bitcoin is just 500$ and now the price is $650+. So my point is, become a trader or risk taker when others are afraid to trade when the market starts falling because after a months or even years the market will recover its loss and they will start to climb up high and give you great profits.
It can always go lower dude. That's like trying to win a guessing game. The thing is, you can't guess the bottom everytime.
Still though, somewhat i agree with you. But not on bitcoin trading. Bitcoin market is too shallow to make that kind of predictions.
I follow this method on Gold trading. To me the bottom is 1000$for gold. Maayybe 9xx$, but it is very unlikely.
When it comes to make the same guesses for bitcoin, ah. No idea. It can go to 1000$, or go back to 400$ in a few hours.