Topic: The BEST time to buy bitcoin is not there yet,but coming soon, don't miss it ! - page 3. (Read 910 times)

Every time is a best time to buy bitcoin so we can't miss anything but of course not all are afford it so they do some strategy so they can buy bitcoin. I know the best ti.e of bitcoin will come soonest just be patience and hodl.

I said I'd rather buy higher at the beginning of a confirmed bull market then buy now in the middle of a bear market. At the beginning of a bull market, price will continue rising. 2 months off a brutal crash in the middle of a bear market? Price will probably continue falling.

That's what I was addressing with the above post. You have no idea if the bottom would be $6K or $3K or $1K. I'm trying to conserve capital and make profits, not bleed away capital and wait years for recovery. Buying into a bull market is a much more reliable way to do that.

For clarity, this was the original post:



You called $6K the bottom range too. Since we crashed to $3K, your average "bottom range" price is now no better than waiting for a theoretical golden cross at $4-5K. And if we fall to $1K, you will be in a much worse position.

Catching the bottom really shouldn't be the goal, and averaging down means you called the bottom too early anyway.

I was replying to a post you made in which you specifically said you'd rather buy higher later on than buy lower now. You said you'd rather get a worse price. You said $4k+ later on is better than $3000s now. That makes no sense. You didn't address that at all in this reply.

Anyway, I ain't catching no knife, I'm buying up the bottom and have been ever since it went under $4000. If it happens to drop even lower I'll be buying it up at that price too. Whatever the bottom is I'm buying it because I'm buying the whole thing, cost averaging it out. If $3100 in December was the bottom, great, I already bought in the $3100s, and the $3200s, and $3300s and $3400s, and so on for months. If it drops to $2000s great I'll be buying there too.

Whereas you are guaranteed to miss the bottom, and there is no way to know if a price rise is the beginning of the bull market or not, so you'll have to wait a while after the price starts going up, so likely you'll be buying way off the bottom, meanwhile I'll have spent many months buying up the whole bottom range! I like my strategy infinitely better than yours!

if you see price movements on existing charts, it is indeed very difficult to be able to determine the right position to buy coins because all of those possibilities can happen up and down the price of bitcoin no one will know, when you want to buy you only need to be brave to take risks.

The problem I see about using the golden cross is you already missed the right opportunity before the cross even happens, so using the golden cross alone won't detect any kind of reversal in the charts. If you want to be more accurate you must also use RSIs, MACDs, as well as its volume in order to support those moving averages. Also the hardest thing is keeping track on their latest candles which is crucial on detecting any kind of bullishness in the chart. The golden cross is like a monitor in which it would only say "Yes we are now in an up trend".

It is very hard for one to actually know the best time to buy bitcoin and I think every time is good for buying bitcoin it mostly depends on the type of trader you are.  Bitcoin may recover from the current price and it might go down a little and we are limited on how it should be.

Oh for sure, I do get that logic, but I still feel it's a risk too big to take to wait for the opportune moment, when the long-term view is of a certain time and amount, which more or less makes the difference between 1k and 3k negligible. Besides, most of us at most could only entertain fractions of BTC, (unless I underestimate how many of us could be whales!)... so even for me at most I'm talking about the difference between owning 1 BTC now and 3 BTC, over the period of several months.

Anyway, you should hold to where you're comfortable. This may be a game to some, but most of us have real lives and real expenses. Good luck to you!

I'm that type of hodler yeah. I gladly buy the market down without being bothered by the overall $$ value of my holdings going down in the short term. I know that it will pay off in the long run, and that's what I focus on here. I know that it may sound cringe worthy considering how many short term traders there are here, but it paid off for me back in 2015/2016 and I'll happily do it again.

From a trader's to mid term investor's perspective everything you said definitely makes sense. Thanks for the time you put into your counter reply.

ever wondered why people pay more interest rate for longer period loans? there is a time factor that you seem to be missing out, buying time is more precious than you think.

i am not satoshi, i honestly don't put much hope in bitcoin, i as an investor, i like to invest my money where it grows, by keeping it there for a say year not making me any profit is something i call "Stupid".

but if you, or anybody else for that matter, have nothing else to do with that money for a whole year and BTC is all you know  - by all means you this strategy shouldn't be of any sense to you, just buy in right away.

i think bitcoin can pump from these price to 4600 (25) in 24 hour  . russia will invest in bitcoin   and the whale can buy large some of bitcoin . do not forget
bitcoin
1 btc .... 3400 usd cheap cheap
bitcoin can pump hard at any moment .

Tell that to the bulls buying dips all the way down through 2018, thinking it was the bottom every time.

You thought $6K was bottom, right? Your investment would be down 40-50% right now, and that's assuming you managed to buy at $6K. In general, people buying based on that bottom obviously would have bought even higher.

This is still officially a downtrend. Nothing but lower highs and lower lows. The long term MAs continue pressuring price down. With that in mind, you should assume price may crash again. At $1,500 your investments from $6K+ are starting to look unbelievably shitty, aren't they?

If you do the math and account for the risk, then waiting for signs of an actual reversal is much smarter. I appreciate you knife catching bulls but I also think you guys are sort of crazy.

Getting a worse price later on is infinitely better than getting a better price now? Interesting investing strategy. though the math on that doesn't really pan out ;p

The only reason I would see for that is if you don't believe in Bitcoin and aren't sure it is going to go back up so you'd rather wait for signs that it is for sure going to go up and get less buying power than get a better deal earlier when you are scared Bitcoin might disappear.

Exactly. Waiting and hoping for some specific low price could either end up great or make someone totally miss the bottom when it never comes. That strategy involves hoping to get lucky which is never a good strategy.

The other strategy is waiting for a clear sign that the market is moving up for good, by which time you'll have missed the bottom as well.

The best/safest strategy is to accumulate over the course of this entire bottoming out process. So you can have started accumulating since November or start now for anyone who hasn't already started accumulating. Keep buying regularly throughout the coming months until the price starts moving upwards which will probably be sometime the second half of this year - so plenty of time to accumulate! And of course one could keep accumulating as the next bull market begins, or could just sit back and watch the bottom Bitcoin you bought grow exponentially.

I think you're misreading him. More than anything else, the OP is just stating what to look for when the market is transitioning to bullish. He's not saying what needs to happen or when. He's just stressing patience and then suggesting how you can react to changing market conditions by using MA crosses.


The chart will tell us when the golden cross occurs. Then we can react.

I agree with him. People averaging down into this market and letting their losses run obviously have money to burn. If you're concerned with preserving your capital, buying at $4K+ off a golden cross 9 months from now is infinitely smarter than buying now.

It's called hindsight analysis. If things were so obvious, why didn't any of these so called TA cowboys pointed out the importance of the corrective cross? They probably didn't because they might have thought it would pump....

The thing with traders is that you cant blame them even if they guess wrong, because it's a probability based trade that they either win or lose, and that's always what they point to when they guess wrong.

People have been quite bearish already, so they expect lower prices even without an indication or understanding of TA. If we do head lower, TA cowboys and those blindly guessing that the price will go down are right. We'll see.

I touched on why i wouldn't personally buy now, this of course is different and very personal option that differs from one person to another, just because you are a long-term investor it does not make sense to keep your funds in an asset that might not move for nearly a year from now,not only that, you would also risk not being able to buy it for cheaper should it go lower, i think most of you skipped this part that i clearly stated in the OP.


maybe i miss explained it, but here is another explanation.

first let's agree on certain TA facts.

1- the SMA always levels-off before a golden cross.
2- the bull run does not happen over-night.

if we both could agree to these 2 points and here are more facts that develop based on the above points ;

-For the bull run to start, the 20 SMA MUST cross the 50 SMA , there is no argument about this TA wise.
-when that happens, price will be sitting on top of those moving averages.

having said that,the only way for the 20 MA to push though the 50 MA is by leveling-off , this will allow the 20 SMA to remain flat , while the 50 will keep dropping, therefore, reducing the gap between the two and making a cross possible.




 i drew the potential shape of SMAs , they are difficulty not even accurate , just use them to imagine how does the chart have to look like before a bull market begins.

the current reading on the 50 SMA is 6600$ simply because it contains some prices from 11k
the current reading on the 20 SMA is 4600$ they are off by about 30% , and on the weekly chart , this simply means that it's not possible for the bull market to kick in any time soon.

so here is the likely scenario, price will range for not less than 30 to 40 weeks from the alleged bottom candle - between 3000$ - 5000$

this will keep the 20 SMA at about 4000$ for a few months, while 50 SMA will continue to go down to the 4k zone, only then a cross will be possible and the bull market will kick.

i have not done exact calculations because it doesn't really matter, but based on these rough calculations and from comparing the the 2014-2015 chart i am almost certain that the cross will have to happen around 4k.

i don't know about you, but i rather buy at 4k in say Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 than buying at 3.5k now , i would use the cash for something else. also don't forget that we still have for face the possibility of price making another low.

there is nothing certain about bottom, it's nearly impossible to catch it, but there are many certain sings about a bull run kicking in. i rather enter a bit late and too early.

there is indeed no guarantee any of this will have to happen, price could spike up over night and that 20S MA will cross the 50 SMA in 2-3 weeks, but it's not feasible at all.

having said that, if you really don't care don't about your money sitting there doing nothing, it makes all sense to buy now, keep some if the price drops.

How doesn't it make sense for long term investors to buy at current levels?

You point out that it's not certain whether we have already bottomed or not. I think what you are referring to are more short term (buy low sell high) investors. In this case there are two options. 1) you wait and risk missing a great buying opportunity. 2) you buy in right now and take the risk of seeing lower lows, but have additional funds aside to buy more on the way down.

This market rhymes, that's undoubtedly true, but it's not something I would want to wait for as being an actual long term investor/believer of the tech. Whether you buy at $3000 or $2000, in the long run it doesn't make much of a difference with how the next bull wave will catapult the price to $100,000 with enough momentum behind it. Heck, even $50,000 isn't all that bad, and the difference between buying at $3000 or $2000 is still negligible.

this is the only missing part of the puzzle now, percentage wise we have dropped almost exactly as we did in 2014, time wise of first bottom candle is also almost identical from death cross , the only thing missing now is that last leg ( which is not a must anyway, but still !).

this is why i am not going balls deep in bitcoin yet, because if the market decide another leg, that leg is going to be a large one, anywhere from 1000$ to 1800$ as i don't see any major support above that.pretty soon

having said that, i am almost very confident that we will have to level off pretty son and i tend to think based on charts that we have already bottomed, but i still want to see more signs before jumping in, and the golden cross will be my all-in signal.


you make a lot of sense, but you know that if we drop to 1k then you buy about 3 btc for each btc you can buy now, but that's not a big deal to some people, however this is not my major concern, it's the "how long" that gets me, i am not the best hodler minded out there, i don't like to keep my fortune stuck for a long time doing nothing, i am pretty sure nothing bullish is going to happen before at least Q4 of this year, i wouldn't want to put my money in bitcoin now and watch it do nothing , some people might be okay with that tho.


then wtf are you doing in price speculation? it's either technical or fundamental based topics, unless you have a magic that tells you something we all don't know. if you don't like what you see, move on, visit the off-topic and talk about flat earth.



you are taking the risk if you now too, the risk is always there, there is nothing that guarantees bitcoin not going to 100$ or 50$, i simply don't make my decision on how much bitcoin is worth, price alone does not mean shit, it was cheap at  6k wasn't it ? it was cheap at 10k too, anything below ATH was cheap, people bought in and now they have either lost their money or minds, just because price is very low from ATH it doesn't mean it's time to buy it, i rather wait for clear signals even if i had to buy bitcoin for more than current price, taking less risk in itself is profit. also should the price fall to say 1k, you would be missing out on a great discount.

don't get me wrong tho, if you don't know how to read charts or you just don't care about time, it's still a very good chance to buy.

I already convert my savings into bitcoin even it is too risky. I already take the advantages in buying bitcoin which the price is very cheap and I just store it in my wallet which is a kind of hardware wallet. The savings that I use to buy bitcoin is my profit way back 2017.

Why ? Whhhyy would it make the same thing again? What makes it sooo sure that it will happen again. I can't really believe people who keep on thinking bitcoin did something once and it will do it again, why don't you guys understand just because something happened once it will happen again.

Why would it pass that golden cross again, maybe it wont ? I mean I understand its bitcoin and price will probably go up one day or another and even if it takes 20 years bitcoin will go up again but why does it have to be according to the chart ? Have you ever looked at all the charts that were shared here all this time  ?

Almost ALL of them were wrong and none of them found the perfect time to get into bitcoin, there has been a lot of charts that said THIS is the time to join and all failed. I don't doubt bitcoin will increase once again but it has nothing to do with 2014-2015 and it has nothing to do with charts as well.