I have been comparing charts from 2014-2015 to 2018-2019 and i can't think of any more similar market behavior, and based on that , to me ,we still have a long way to go before seeing any considerable gains.
the history view , plus adding to it the concept of the
golden cross which is always the best and strongest sign of any market reversal.
Without any further ado let's jump right into the weekly BLX chart.
looking at how price reacted to the 20 and 50 simple moving averages back in 2014-2015 , it's pretty similar to how it reacted to it in 2018 , and the similarity is still showing on the chart, it's like history all over again, and based on that, we still have a long way to go for bull market, I never look at exact periods and prices but if timing is to be the same , then here are the numbers ;
it took 440 days from the dead cross to the mark the golden cross, this puts us somewhere around September 10th 2019.
from a pure technical point of view , it's almost always impossible to make a golden across (shift in market direction) without a quite a good period of long sideways market where price does not move much.
in 2015 it took almost 300 days from the bottom candle to the golden cross, and it only makes sense that the same thing has to happen this year, and even 20 years from now, it's basic , it's simple , it MUST always happen.
therefore based on that, it does not really make sense to buy bitcoin now for long term investment ( for day traders is a different story as sideways market can do up to 100% in btc with no problem).
also the fact that we are not certain whether we have bottomed or not adds more reasons for why do i think it's still too early to buy.
one could argue that the golden cross will happen when price has already increased from bottom, and therefore it's better to buy at the bottom, well this makes a perfect sense in a perfect world, but since we can't know where is the exact bottom, the probability of success is definitely on the golden cross side.
also based on the way these SMA look, it's pretty clear the distance from bottom to golden cross won't be much, as the 20 SMA will have start leveling off , therefore i don't think that anything above 50% increase in price from bottom to golden cross will be possible.
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TL;DR , when is should i buy? how do i know golden cross is coming,? how do i know bottom is there or almost there?
1- wait for the 20 SMA on the weekly chart to start looking level/flat ( refer to the period before the 2015 golden cross)
2- wait for the 20 SMA to cross the 50 SMA go balls deep with SL right under the 50 SMA
This is probably the safest trade one can ever make.
i would love to hear what you guys think is the best chance on charts for your long term entry?
* this is not a fiinancal advice, trading BTC is
FUN risky.