The Big Picture | Bitcointalksearch.org

randy8777

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Quote from: spazzdla on May 26, 2015, 02:48:43 PM

Quote from: randy8777 on May 20, 2015, 07:03:32 PM

people here don't have patience. they want profit, and they want it quick. i'm not really a fan of looking at charts and say it will go up or down. i only look at the facts. fact is that short term doesn't look bright, sub $200 is not far away.

I would disagree with patience.. the only one left here are "stronghands" "bagholders" and Fallin ... time will tell which term is correct.

you not seeing patience as one of the most important aspects says enough. without it you basically are lost. there are many weak handed traders ready to click on the sell button as soon as they are about to panic.

Amph

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Quote from: alch1mista on May 27, 2015, 02:49:53 AM

Quote from: Amph on May 27, 2015, 02:13:00 AM

usually the cycle look like a big dump first, then stagnation then a rise again, so we could be on the right track now

Could you tell, exactly, when did this happen in the past?
Thanks

very easy to see it on the all time chart, take a look at the time between june 2011 and september 2012, so even longer than current situation, there was a raise on july 2011 then a dump between july and october 2011, than a long stagnation phase until july 2012, then a new high between july and october 2012 and so on, it has occured at least two times, one was very long(so i can't understand the whole "this long bearish market never happened" argument) and one smaller around april 2013

alch1mista

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Quote from: Amph on May 27, 2015, 02:13:00 AM

usually the cycle look like a big dump first, then stagnation then a rise again, so we could be on the right track now

Could you tell, exactly, when did this happen in the past?
Thanks

Amph

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Quote from: readysalted89 on May 26, 2015, 05:21:54 PM

Quote from: mrhelpful on May 25, 2015, 12:35:22 PM

Why do I get the feeling its going to be in the $100 zone.

I only state on this based on the previous years around this price zone, but also peoples patience has been wearing out since some people expected too much out of bitcoin.

This has been one of the longest bear markets in bitcoin's history. Lots of people expected to make huge profits in months and after a year they gave up hope. If the bear market continues for another year increasing numbers of investors could start losing hope.

not much more of a bear market, than a stagnant market, swing recently are very non existent, the market is just moving up and down by a few usd, not even worth watching or trade with this situation

usually the cycle look like a big dump first, then stagnation then a rise again, so we could be on the right track now

readysalted89

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Quote from: mrhelpful on May 25, 2015, 12:35:22 PM

Why do I get the feeling its going to be in the $100 zone.

I only state on this based on the previous years around this price zone, but also peoples patience has been wearing out since some people expected too much out of bitcoin.

This has been one of the longest bear markets in bitcoin's history. Lots of people expected to make huge profits in months and after a year they gave up hope. If the bear market continues for another year increasing numbers of investors could start losing hope.

spazzdla

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Quote from: randy8777 on May 20, 2015, 07:03:32 PM

people here don't have patience. they want profit, and they want it quick. i'm not really a fan of looking at charts and say it will go up or down. i only look at the facts. fact is that short term doesn't look bright, sub $200 is not far away.

I would disagree with patience.. the only one left here are "stronghands" "bagholders" and Fallin ... time will tell which term is correct.

techgeek

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That picture that op, posted really doesnt justify really anything.

For all you know, it can go back up for whatever reason, yeah its a downtrend but you dont know the future regardless.

mrhelpful

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Why do I get the feeling its going to be in the $100 zone.

I only state on this based on the previous years around this price zone, but also peoples patience has been wearing out since some people expected too much out of bitcoin.

Fabrizio89

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Either we dump hard or stay here for months and months. There's no reason for going up at this time. Next year with some hype cause of the halving maybe we will get a chance for a mini bubble and then all out again.

Benjig

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Quote from: randy8777 on May 20, 2015, 07:03:32 PM

people here don't have patience. they want profit, and they want it quick. i'm not really a fan of looking at charts and say it will go up or down. i only look at the facts. fact is that short term doesn't look bright, sub $200 is not far away.

The pushes and pulls on the Bitcoin price are diverse. Some are slow but steady, like the gradually rising Supply/Demand curve for a stable bitcoin supply base. Others are violent and sentimental, such as the speculative trades that see the buying and selling of tens of thousands bitcoin via exchanges every day. As you said, I believe Bitcoin for now its not a quick way for profit.

randy8777

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Quote from: Anonymoose33 on May 20, 2015, 07:51:34 PM

Quote from: randy8777 on May 20, 2015, 07:03:32 PM

people here don't have patience. they want profit, and they want it quick. i'm not really a fan of looking at charts and say it will go up or down. i only look at the facts. fact is that short term doesn't look bright, sub $200 is not far away.

Interesting. I do not like to predict short term price swings on a long term investment, it is rather pointless as trendlines can be drawn different ways. I would not argue that $180 would be completely out of the realm of possibility tweaking the line slightly. Some call downtrend, but it all just a matter of perspective on the time frame you are basing the analysis off of.

Just out of curiosity though, you say you do not look at charts to predict price movement, yet you seem to have come to the conclusion that "fact is that short term doesn't look bright, sub $200 is not far away". Care to elaborate on where you get these "facts" for a price prediction, if you do not get it from the charts?

$180 trendline:

it's not that hard to spot. sentiment is bad for quite a while. every time the price looks to go up and people get excited, the price then goes down again. it will stay like this untill there's reason for that. (blockhalving)

Amph

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Quote from: 1Referee on May 21, 2015, 07:57:46 AM

Big picture? I think we're very lucky if we hit $300 this year. And even if we hit it, will we manage to stay above that level...

there is a contradiction here, how can we hit it and stay above that is, i mean if we manage to stay above that it mean that the price can be anything higher than 300...

LFC_Bitcoin

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Quote from: randy8777 on May 20, 2015, 07:03:32 PM

people here don't have patience. they want profit, and they want it quick. i'm not really a fan of looking at charts and say it will go up or down. i only look at the facts. fact is that short term doesn't look bright, sub $200 is not far away.

Speak for yourself, obviously we all want profit but I won't be cashing in at 300, 400, even at 1000 USD.
In 10 years time bitcoin will probably be worth somewhere around 10,000 USD each or literally nothing.
We will either succeed as a currency/store of value or fail massively.
I don't think there will be any middle ground.
Moon or floor.

Xialla

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Quote from: 1Referee on May 21, 2015, 07:57:46 AM

Big picture? I think we're very lucky if we hit $300 this year. And even if we hit it, will we manage to stay above that level...

ahh and why not? it so low for you and you want 1k/BTC again in couple of weeks? More important is trend then current value..we need to rise first.(

1Referee

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Big picture? I think we're very lucky if we hit $300 this year. And even if we hit it, will we manage to stay above that level...

8up

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Quote from: klee on May 21, 2015, 03:47:46 AM

Quote from: 8up on May 21, 2015, 03:35:12 AM

Quote from: klee on May 21, 2015, 03:19:44 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on May 20, 2015, 11:21:28 PM

On the logscale chart going back to 2011, the projection of the bottom is around $30. The pattern drawn in the OP on the logscale chart shows the price action broke down through the bottom support line as of the start of 2015, thus the next line of support is the long-term line.

I place high odds on Bitcoin breaking back below $100, because there are still too many hyper-proud, overconfident Bitcoin fanatics who don't understand basic facts. Capitulation will likely be some where in the double digits because we need blood in the streets and below $100 is the psychological pain/panic/despair threshold for many.

I am expecting a potential bounce to $320 (to the upper line of the wedge to touch support that became resistance) before the waterfall (stampede) decline to the capitulation bottom.

If we fail to break 250 in this move, your scenario is very probable.
On the other hand, based on my analysis, if we do penetrate this then it is the beginning of a new bull market..

EDIT: Though I have to repeat that since China entered, we really had no new blood buying - this has changed with GBTC and XBT ETN (& probably with COIN ETF) and I seriously doubt it will be easy for supply to overtake demand and NOT break 250.

THIS is bitcoin. There will always be overconfident Bitcoin fanatics. Even at $10 many early adopters sit on massive (cashed out) profits. I wrote some time ago, that this board shouldn't be used for sentiment analysis anymore as it degnerated to an (entertaining) puppet show. If you want to get a feeling, where the market stands now, you have to get out of this realm.

Not sure if you agree with me or not but my analysis is based not on fundamentals or sentiment:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/pnf-ta-1064374

Now, bitcoin fanatics & the forum and their interaction with the price are two topics for analysis that are huge on their own !

Finally, many traders/investors @ NYSE/NASDAQ will buy regardless if the current price is high or low for various analysts and this is a DEMAND increase.

I don't see any increase in SUPPLY though, excluding miners and the short sellers who act more short term (opportunistically) anyway...

EDIT: That said I will open some shorts if we reach the resistance at 245 to hedge (stoploss 247) and will put 240 as a stoploss for my longs.
So I am not a btc fanatic in any way, I am looking to make as much profit as I can from this market whether it moves up or down.

Just in case it was not clear. I agree with you and I appreciate your P&F analysis thread. Keep it going. Wink

klee

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Quote from: 8up on May 21, 2015, 03:35:12 AM

Quote from: klee on May 21, 2015, 03:19:44 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on May 20, 2015, 11:21:28 PM

On the logscale chart going back to 2011, the projection of the bottom is around $30. The pattern drawn in the OP on the logscale chart shows the price action broke down through the bottom support line as of the start of 2015, thus the next line of support is the long-term line.

I place high odds on Bitcoin breaking back below $100, because there are still too many hyper-proud, overconfident Bitcoin fanatics who don't understand basic facts. Capitulation will likely be some where in the double digits because we need blood in the streets and below $100 is the psychological pain/panic/despair threshold for many.

I am expecting a potential bounce to $320 (to the upper line of the wedge to touch support that became resistance) before the waterfall (stampede) decline to the capitulation bottom.

If we fail to break 250 in this move, your scenario is very probable.
On the other hand, based on my analysis, if we do penetrate this then it is the beginning of a new bull market..

EDIT: Though I have to repeat that since China entered, we really had no new blood buying - this has changed with GBTC and XBT ETN (& probably with COIN ETF) and I seriously doubt it will be easy for supply to overtake demand and NOT break 250.

THIS is bitcoin. There will always be overconfident Bitcoin fanatics. Even at $10 many early adopters sit on massive (cashed out) profits. I wrote some time ago, that this board shouldn't be used for sentiment analysis anymore as it degnerated to an (entertaining) puppet show. If you want to get a feeling, where the market stands now, you have to get out of this realm.

Not sure if you agree with me or not but my analysis is based not on fundamentals or sentiment:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/pnf-ta-1064374

Now, bitcoin fanatics & the forum and their interaction with the price are two topics for analysis that are huge on their own !

Finally, many traders/investors @ NYSE/NASDAQ will buy regardless if the current price is high or low for various analysts and this is a DEMAND increase.

I don't see any increase in SUPPLY though, excluding miners and the short sellers who act more short term (opportunistically) anyway...

EDIT: That said I will open some shorts if we reach the resistance at 245 to hedge (stoploss 247) and will put 240 as a stoploss for my longs.
So I am not a btc fanatic in any way, I am looking to make as much profit as I can from this market whether it moves up or down.

8up

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Quote from: klee on May 21, 2015, 03:19:44 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on May 20, 2015, 11:21:28 PM

On the logscale chart going back to 2011, the projection of the bottom is around $30. The pattern drawn in the OP on the logscale chart shows the price action broke down through the bottom support line as of the start of 2015, thus the next line of support is the long-term line.

I place high odds on Bitcoin breaking back below $100, because there are still too many hyper-proud, overconfident Bitcoin fanatics who don't understand basic facts. Capitulation will likely be some where in the double digits because we need blood in the streets and below $100 is the psychological pain/panic/despair threshold for many.

I am expecting a potential bounce to $320 (to the upper line of the wedge to touch support that became resistance) before the waterfall (stampede) decline to the capitulation bottom.

If we fail to break 250 in this move, your scenario is very probable.
On the other hand, based on my analysis, if we do penetrate this then it is the beginning of a new bull market..

EDIT: Though I have to repeat that since China entered, we really had no new blood buying - this has changed with GBTC and XBT ETN (& probably with COIN ETF) and I seriously doubt it will be easy for supply to overtake demand and NOT break 250.

THIS is bitcoin. There will always be overconfident Bitcoin fanatics. Even at $10 many early adopters sit on massive (cashed out) profits. I wrote some time ago, that this board shouldn't be used for sentiment analysis anymore as it degnerated to an (entertaining) puppet show. If you want to get a feeling, where the market stands now, you have to get out of this realm.

oser41eric

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Quote from: Chef Ramsay on May 20, 2015, 11:03:55 PM

Quote from: techgeek on May 20, 2015, 10:05:45 PM

If you see this big picture down trend, what do you think would be the bottom.

I mean do you think it`ll head to $10 per 1 btc? or ever go back down that far?

Some people will mention, yeah it`ll never hit that price again, but how do you know its the bottom lol.

You asked and you shall receive: no it won't go below180$ at this point. That's right I said it/

Have to agree and you are not the only one saying it, as long as we don't get satoshi's coins heading to the exchange or another massive whale or seriously terrible news, then we will not go below $180 for longer than a few seconds. To many buy orders would be placed by the guys that see the bigger picture and are not scared to buy when there is blood on the streets so to speak. I am not scared and I will load up again if we go sub 200, (which we won't) Undecided

klee

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Quote from: TPTB_need_war on May 20, 2015, 11:21:28 PM

On the logscale chart going back to 2011, the projection of the bottom is around $30. The pattern drawn in the OP on the logscale chart shows the price action broke down through the bottom support line as of the start of 2015, thus the next line of support is the long-term line.

I place high odds on Bitcoin breaking back below $100, because there are still too many hyper-proud, overconfident Bitcoin fanatics who don't understand basic facts. Capitulation will likely be some where in the double digits because we need blood in the streets and below $100 is the psychological pain/panic/despair threshold for many.

I am expecting a potential bounce to $320 (to the upper line of the wedge to touch support that became resistance) before the waterfall (stampede) decline to the capitulation bottom.

If we fail to break 250 in this move, your scenario is very probable.
On the other hand, based on my analysis, if we do penetrate this then it is the beginning of a new bull market..

EDIT: Though I have to repeat that since China entered, we really had no new blood buying - this has changed with GBTC and XBT ETN (& probably with COIN ETF) and I seriously doubt it will be easy for supply to overtake demand and NOT break 250.

Topic: The Big Picture (Read 2265 times)