The Big Short movie, BTC edition? - page 5.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 27, 2020, 10:38:03 PM

You might be wrong in speculating that exchanges are completely insinuated if Tether collapses. Many of them depend on the liquidity to maintain their orderbooks. I would speculate that a liquidity crisis might force some exchanges to suspend and close their service.

If altcoin exchanges have thin order books because volume hasn't yet moved to other stablecoins like USDC and BUSD, I don't think that qualifies as a liquidity crisis. And there's no way any exchanges would suspend service just because they list Tether markets. They can still make good on all their obligations to depositors.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 27, 2020, 10:38:03 PM

Also, why would it depend if it is a bull or bear market?

Because underlying supply and demand is much more powerful than any news item, even an important exchange going down. I just gave you several real life examples from 2017 that show this. An observable phenomenon: novice traders always blame news for price moves, whereas experienced traders don't.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 27, 2020, 10:38:03 PM

I would argue a Tether takedown would be the beginning of a new bear market.

You might be right, but only because of timing. Wink

Let's agree to disagree. We're starting to go in circles......

error08

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 27, 2020, 10:38:03 PM

You might be wrong in speculating that exchanges are completely insinuated if Tether collapses. Many of them depend on the liquidity to maintain their orderbooks. I would speculate that a liquidity crisis might force some exchanges to suspend and close their service.

Also, why would it depend if it is a bull or bear market? I would argue a Tether takedown would be the beginning of a new bear market.

Tether's credibility has been in doubt for years and has been encountered lawsuit, it is an unwise decision if the exchange's liquidity backed by USDT, they just list it for traders but hopefully don't hold it as a reserve.

"Kiana Shek, Digifinex’s co-founder, told CoinDesk she’d been “looking for ways to get rid of USDT” for months, adding, “I simply don’t believe in tether but I had no choice” but to list it.^[1]

If Tether will be takedown, then every trader who holds it will suffer losses but won't affect the whole crypto market significantly to cause a new bear market.

bbc.reporter

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You might be wrong in speculating that exchanges are completely insinuated if Tether collapses. Many of them depend on the liquidity to maintain their orderbooks. I would speculate that a liquidity crisis might force some exchanges to suspend and close their service.

Also, why would it depend if it is a bull or bear market? I would argue a Tether takedown would be the beginning of a new bear market.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 26, 2020, 09:07:22 PM

However, you do not see the other side of the argument. Tether could arguably be the one that supports or one that mostly supports the cryptospace market. Taking it down would be similar to taking away the foundation and cause it to fall.

Tether is an important part of the ecosystem, sure, but to suggest the entire crypto space would collapse without it is nonsense. Exchanges are completely insulated from Tether's collapse; it's only USDT depositors that are exposed. I also maintain that this is not 2014; one exchange being taken down will not have the same effect as Mt. Gox did back then. And like I said, a lot depends if there is an underlying bull or bear market when it happens. I think I gave some pretty good examples of how bad news never stops a bubble.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 26, 2020, 09:07:22 PM

How would the Tether holders exit Tether if it was taken down by the exchanges?

I don't think they would all do that, and certainly not immediately.

estenity

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@extasie
don't you think that, out of an attack on bitfinex/tether/usdt, an analogous crisis could be engineered by an attack on defi and stablecoins, whose generalization results in a big problem for central banks of the world?

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: exstasie on October 26, 2020, 04:25:56 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 26, 2020, 01:07:53 AM

@exstasie. However, an overstatement or not, an immediate Tether takedown will cause a liquidity crisis.

How so? Could you elaborate?

The immediate liquidity crisis, as I see it, would be out of USDT and therefore into cryptocurrencies.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 26, 2020, 01:07:53 AM

How fast will real dollars and Tether's competitors swallow up its market share without causing a big short? I speculate not fast enough. We cannot assume that the billions in Tether will be transfered to other stablecoins or real dollars in 1 day.

Tether holders would absorb losses, whether by panic buying out of USDT or by waiting for a bankruptcy or similar action. I still maintain that whether this causes a serious crash or prolonged downtrend depends on the underlying market trend. If they take Tether down in the middle of a bubble (like 2017) it won't stop the bulls, anymore than when the Chinese exchanges were shut down.

However, you do not see the other side of the argument. Tether could arguably be the one that supports or one that mostly supports the cryptospace market. Taking it down would be similar to taking away the foundation and cause it to fall.

How would the Tether holders exit Tether if it was taken down by the exchanges?

Also this article.

Did you know that each time Tether is traded a small fee is charged, and that they can just change the fees and terms of their contract at any time??

There is no possibility for transparency because this contract has a backdoor that allows the owner to change the terms at any point:

Source https://inst.medium.com/tethers-fees-4f1ce048bfba

Tether in Ethereum might be easy to takedown if declared illegal and if ordered to cease operation by the government.

@Fortify. Agreed. This is only the cryptospace edition hehe. Also, markets always recover.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Febo on October 07, 2020, 07:45:54 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 07, 2020, 12:22:18 AM

According to Chris Larsen, co-founder and executive chairman of Ripple Labs, the company is likely to move its headquarters overseas because due to the regulatory stance of the federal government towards the crypto industry.

No one can touch ripple labs. They are bankers. They will simply pay huge fines and just continue doing whatever they are doing.

For McAfee. He total understood crypto long time ago. But still acted totally dumb. I will never understand him.

coke steroids lots of women will make a lot of men act badly.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 26, 2020, 01:07:53 AM

@exstasie. However, an overstatement or not, an immediate Tether takedown will cause a liquidity crisis.

How so? Could you elaborate?

The immediate liquidity crisis, as I see it, would be out of USDT and therefore into cryptocurrencies.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 26, 2020, 01:07:53 AM

How fast will real dollars and Tether's competitors swallow up its market share without causing a big short? I speculate not fast enough. We cannot assume that the billions in Tether will be transfered to other stablecoins or real dollars in 1 day.

Tether holders would absorb losses, whether by panic buying out of USDT or by waiting for a bankruptcy or similar action. I still maintain that whether this causes a serious crash or prolonged downtrend depends on the underlying market trend. If they take Tether down in the middle of a bubble (like 2017) it won't stop the bulls, anymore than when the Chinese exchanges were shut down.

Fortify

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There have been many scams in bitcoin, ever since the Mt Gox. exchange imploded many years ago. I'm not sure that any one exchange (beyond maybe coinbase) has the potential to blow up the system and it certainly wouldn't have the same effect or scale as the Big Short film portrayed. The big short film represented the subprime mortgage crisis which involved trillions of dollars and the potential to lead the world into a depression if it was not handled well. One exchange going down would hurt many people, but it would not have a destabilizing effect on the world economy.

palle11

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 24, 2020, 11:39:52 PM

Also, the essence of my argument is not fud. It is to warn us from making similar mistakes made by those overconfident people during the real big short.

Is there really someone that is doing mistake in bitcoin or cryptocurrency, I don't think because everyone is taking chance in speculation of price move. You are not sure of it until it is done, you just have move and not to show even regret.

bbc.reporter

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@exstasie. However, an overstatement or not, an immediate Tether takedown will cause a liquidity crisis. How fast will real dollars and Tether's competitors swallow up its market share without causing a big short? I speculate not fast enough. We cannot assume that the billions in Tether will be transfered to other stablecoins or real dollars in 1 day.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 24, 2020, 11:39:52 PM

However, a Tether takedown will not be some bad news that we can ignore carelessly. The whole cryptospace and most of its liquity depends on Tether.

I've always contended that Tether represents a big chunk of Bitcoin market liquidity, but "most" is a big overstatement. I also think you underestimate how quickly Tether's competitors will swallow up its market share if things go that way.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 24, 2020, 11:39:52 PM

Bull markets cannot be created without it unless real dollars or another stablecoin also reaches a similar amount of liquidity.

Real dollars, like the ones flowing into Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, etc. during a bull market? We need dollar inflows, not necessarily stablecoins.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 24, 2020, 11:39:52 PM

Also, the essence of my argument is not fud. It is to warn us from making similar mistakes made by those overconfident people during the real big short.

I'm not the type to accuse anyone of FUD anyway. I just think you underestimate how robust the exchange ecosystem is (it would be nothing like Mt. Gox in 2014) and more importantly, how strong bubble psychology is. Bad news can't stop a bull market, let alone a bubble.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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However, a Tether takedown will not be some bad news that we can ignore carelessly. The whole cryptospace and most of its liquity depends on Tether. Bull markets cannot be created without it unless real dollars or another stablecoin also reaches a similar amount of liquidity.

Also, the essence of my argument is not fud. It is to warn us from making similar mistakes made by those overconfident people during the real big short.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 22, 2020, 12:39:14 AM

I would argue that if BTCe was really relevant in the cryptospace during that time, why was the bull market pump of 2017 not affected by BTCe's takedown?

That's exactly the point I was making: Bad news can't keep a lid on a bull market. Good news can't prop up bear markets either.

Did the rejection of the highly anticipated Winklevoss ETF stop the bull market in 2017? How about when China banned Bitcoin exchanges and ICOs? No, each time (like when BTC-e was taken down) we got a dip, and then the market went to new ATHs again.

This is why technical traders often say "news doesn't matter." The underlying trend is usually much more powerful.

teosanru

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on May 23, 2020, 11:00:33 PM

USDT was crticized in this forum because it does not have the 100% backing of real USD. According to Bitfinex, the tethers are backed 100% again. However, how are we certain?

Bitfinex also has pending inquiries on the New York State attorney general's office.

Whether or not USDT is fully-backed has long been a point of contention. The company has promised an audit of its stablecoin reserves (though it has not delivered one, and has since dissolved its relationship with its auditor), produced a third-party report saying it likely had more funds than outstanding tokens, and had a bank write a letter vouching for its holdings. (The latter two reports both acted as snapshots, only assuring the crypto community that on specific days, Tether’s obligations did not exceed its assets.)

Source https://www.coindesk.com/tether-says-its-stablecoin-is-fully-backed-again

Also, 70% of the total bitcoin trading in the cryptospace is made in USDT. This is an old source, however, I reckon the % might be close to similar at this moment.

In August, BTC trading into USDT represented 71.23% of total volume (traded into fiat or stablecoin).

Source https://www.cryptocompare.com/media/35651527/cryptocompare_exchange_review_2019_08.pdf

Are we sitting on a timebomb similar to the movie The Big Short?

Dr. Burry, The Big Short

I don't know why people are taking this lightly or acting as if they don't care about this. This post technically makes sense. If you say that you hate fiat but don't care what all scam is going on with USDT then you technically are giving you a false belief. But yes the amount of USDT that we have currently in market cap is pretty difficult to accomodate in reality. Moreover until now I am surprised that when we are talking about money supply of USD reaching heights why isn't the US government concerned about so much USD lying in with bitfinex? Isn't this strange?

bbc.reporter

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I would argue that if BTCe was really relevant in the cryptospace during that time, why was the bull market pump of 2017 not affected by BTCe's takedown?

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 19, 2020, 08:51:05 PM

@exstasie. 2017 became the dominance of Binance, Bitfinex and some Chinese or Korean exchanges. I am not certain, however, BTCe's millions in volume was very much lower than the top 3 exchanges' billions. BTCe on 2017 was not relevant anymore.

I really think this challenges that point of view:

Quote from: exstasie on October 17, 2020, 04:41:09 PM

This is an archive of CMC exchange rankings the day before BTC-e went down: https://web.archive.org/web/20170724163440/https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

BTC-e and xBTCe (BTC-e's margin platform at the time, which used their liquidity on the back end) took the #7 and #15 spots by volume. Notably, several of the exchanges ahead of them are known for faking volume.

BTC-e was very important at the time.

The exchanges ahead of BTC-e included Yunbi, CHBTC, Coinone, Korbit, and other volume faking exchanges.......give me a break! Roll Eyes

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 19, 2020, 08:51:05 PM

It also appeared to be the exchange that money launderers used to dump their coins to retrieve fiat.

Sure. Does that imply it wasn't an important exchange? The fact that the US government thought they were worth taking down (not to mention trying so hard to extradite the alleged owner, Vinnik) would suggest otherwise.

bbc.reporter

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@exstasie. 2017 became the dominance of Binance, Bitfinex and some Chinese or Korean exchanges. I am
not certain, however, BTCe's millions in volume was very much lower than the top 3 exchanges' billions. BTCe on 2017 was not relevant anymore.

It also appeared to be the exchange that money launderers used to dump their coins to retrieve fiat.

In any case, yes we will see.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 16, 2020, 10:41:09 PM

@exstasie. I cannot agree. Tether is speculated to be carrying the whole cryptospace with the biggest volume and liquidity. It will not be whether it is a bull market or a bear market. If the American government is successful in the Tether rug pull, we should be hoping that the speculations are not true because it will certainly be the cryptospace's version of the Big Short.

We'll see.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 16, 2020, 10:41:09 PM

BTCe is not a good comparison. It only had a small percentage of the total volume in the cryptospace on 2017. Mtgox might be a better comparison.

I disagree. The exchange space was much more concentrated in early-mid 2017 than now. And when Mt. Gox went down in early 2014, there were only a handful of relevant exchanges. It's worth noting that Bitcoin was in a bull market in 2017. It was in a bear market in 2014. Wink

This is an archive of CMC exchange rankings the day before BTC-e went down: https://web.archive.org/web/20170724163440/https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

BTC-e and xBTCe (BTC-e's margin platform at the time, which used their liquidity on the back end) took the #7 and #15 spots by volume. Notably, several of the exchanges ahead of them are known for faking volume.

BTC-e was very important at the time.

SquallLeonhart

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 05, 2020, 10:16:09 PM

There can be an argument that a bet against Tether can also be a bet against the price of bitcoin.

Bet against tether is not a bet against bitcoin at all. Tether is owned by a company, well actually tether is the company, usdt is the product they are putting out. Which is why I keep saying that tether and ripple type of company owned stuff should be excluded from the cmc and all the crypto discussions. They are just a company and they have a product, they are not decentralized crypto currency.

I feel like tether could crash and be worth nothing and bitcoin market will be affected by it but can move on without any problem. Didn't we had bitcoin before usdt was a thing? We definitely had it and we will still have it if USDT gets cancelled as well by SEC. I am also glad that John finally got what he deserved, I have nothing to say about that, dude deserved it.

Topic: The Big Short movie, BTC edition? - page 5. (Read 1834 times)