The Bitcoin halving's 3 possible scenarios.

milewilda

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Quote from: smyslov on May 16, 2020, 11:05:54 AM

I voted for the boring scenario because that's what exactly is happening right now, the price move up and down, but the good thing is the upwards price is moving two steps upwards, it's only a matter of time before we reach the $10 k mark, great time to still accumulate,I'm hoping the price to double before the start of the third quarter.

You are somewhat right on this one. After halving event the price havent moved out since but doesnt mean that it wont really make in further days or week since we do know that effects might happen on longer aspect
which isnt something new yet this had been the case that happened in the past.For now we should need to wait and shouldnt really be on a hurry on seeing things up and its better to utilize these
current prices because we wont know if these would be the last digits that we would able to see before we would shoot up.

smyslov

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I voted for the boring scenario because that's what exactly is happening right now, the price move up and down, but the good thing is the upwards price is moving two steps upwards, it's only a matter of time before we reach the $10 k mark, great time to still accumulate,I'm hoping the price to double before the start of the third quarter.

kryptqnick

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Just like the majority of votes says, it seems that the boring scenario is what we're dealing with. There are some fluctuations, but nothing that couldn't have happened without halving. The short-term affect is not present. Maybe it's the pandemic anxiety and the halving FOMO crossing each other out. As for the long-term effect which is something people usually mean when they say that last halving brought BTC to the new ATH, I think that the more time goes by, the more factors that can influence the price appear, so it becomes next to impossible to tell whether halving played a major role. So we can see Bitcoin rising at the beginning of 2021, but there would not be a consensus on whether the halving had something to do with it.

tbterryboy

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It is cool that we managed to go back up and that is really valuable honestly. I was thinking maybe people could have been disappointed when something like this happens because people do expect a lot of moves. I remember from Libra to Bakkt there was a lot of hype and people bought a lot of bitcoin and none of that happened people sold and price went down a lot.

I was afraid that the halving would have been something like that as well. Thankfully it wasn't like that at all and right now it is getting a lot better right now and price reached to 10k almost and that's cool. Of course there could still be some lows and some highs as well, I don't know what will happen in the future at all but I know that we are doing good right now and that is kinda good enough for me.

aioc

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I'll choose the FOMO as the one that will likely happen, FOMO because the halving will create a significant event in the community and those new people coming in will believe what old-timers will say to them and that is to buy as the price is going to skyrocket, people are looking on the chart and they are comparing the first two and that's what likely to happen if there's no pandemic now, we are in a different scenario and the market will be different from what we are seeing now

btc_angela

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 15, 2020, 05:41:44 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on May 12, 2020, 03:02:26 AM

"Boring scenario" won the poll, and it was truly a boring scenario. Everything WAS priced in with the halving event already known to be four years after 2016's halving.

Any market FOMO from here will be of unknown causes.

And checking back in here 3 days later, I can confirm, all of us who voted for boring won and continue to be right. We should all get prizes for finally getting crowd wisdom right in this forum.

I'll admit I held some small belief I could be wrong, especially when we touched 10k last Friday. Would have been happy to been proven wrong. Still, next difficulty adjustment coming up, and every step from there could clue us in on how miners are thinking.

Funny thing is after 3 days, the bulls at least are trying to push the price into the five digits again. So I don't know if this is boring as the price increased 5%-6%. But I guess this is just short-term, we still don't know how miners are going to react. There could still be FOMO, but I don't know how far can we get, reaching $10k again will be a good gauge.

buwaytress

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on May 12, 2020, 03:02:26 AM

"Boring scenario" won the poll, and it was truly a boring scenario. Everything WAS priced in with the halving event already known to be four years after 2016's halving.

Any market FOMO from here will be of unknown causes.

And checking back in here 3 days later, I can confirm, all of us who voted for boring won and continue to be right. We should all get prizes for finally getting crowd wisdom right in this forum.

I'll admit I held some small belief I could be wrong, especially when we touched 10k last Friday. Would have been happy to been proven wrong. Still, next difficulty adjustment coming up, and every step from there could clue us in on how miners are thinking.

UnDerDoG81

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So in conclusion you mean it will go up, down or sideways? Could happen.

Sirait

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Quote from: Gotumoot on May 05, 2020, 05:42:22 AM

I would bet that there is a big percentage that this halving could be the Boring Scenario because of the covid effect.
But there is also a possibility of a FOMO because of covid people would try to use crypto to earn online so there could be a batch of fresh money for the market.
But the FOMO would only be for the newbie's not for us who have been in crypto game for long.

haha, why only a newbie? have you lost your passion for Bitcoin Cheesy

I more agree with the Boring scenario at halving this time, the attractiveness of investors may be has diverted because covid is happening

kawetsriyanto

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Quote from: The Cryptovator on May 05, 2020, 03:07:21 AM

Most probably price would drop after halving FOMO because there will be another FUD after halving. As you mention on the topic regarding panic sell, it would happen immediately after halving, not before the halving IMO.

It is also what I think related to this halving. People will buy Bitcoins several days or weeks before halving and once there is a big increase during halving, those people will probably try to sell their Bitcoins, then there is a huge drop in price. Actually I don't assume it is a panic sell but a selling time that the people have already planned and predicted to take advantage of Bitcoin halving hype.

Wind_FURY

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"Boring scenario" won the poll, and it was truly a boring scenario. Everything WAS priced in with the halving event already known to be four years after 2016's halving.

Any market FOMO from here will be of unknown causes.

crwth

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There is a lot that has happened but I think we are in Boring Part of this phase. The OP considered everything that could possibly happen and for me, it did. Right now, all I can say is Now What?

It's like the tweet of the official Binance account.

Quote from: mk4 on May 05, 2020, 02:05:03 AM

It's evident in the past that the past halving events had positive effects on bitcoin's price in the mid-long term. So whatever happens in the short-term, really doesn't matter that much. Though I'd personally probably prefer a drop so we could accumulate more. Thoughts?

I think this is the best mindset that we could have, people involved in Bitcoin should have too. Having the Long Term mindset that people should have. It's not wise to have to speculate on what could happen to Bitcoin's price because no one can predict it, but the discussion should always be what could we do in the long term to help the price move up. In the short term, accumulate more.

adaseb

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Well it was the scenario that I didn't expect to happen. I assumed that after the halving either we will get a dump or it would trade sideways and instead we got a dump right before the halving. Looking at the hourly charts it looks like the low $8xxx area might be holding so we might actually in a few days break out of this mid $8xxx trading and head back to the $10K+ but that dump from $9600 was pretty ugly to say the least.

All over crypto twitter and reddit people who were new to bitcoin and invested are calling it a scam already because it lost so much value in such little time. Many people bought at $10K or so and were forced to watch almost 20% of their investment plunge in a day or so. So not looking well on that front. Either way we will see how it will play out for the remainder of this week and month.

leea-1334

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So,,, are we in something else territory now? I feel like we are at the totally boring moment phase. And this is what I have been saying will happen. Every time we hype something up, it turns to boring shit. Bitcoin suffered the altcoin moment. Hyped to max effect then plop nothing happened.

TitanGEL

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Quote from: carlfebz2 on May 11, 2020, 05:34:02 PM

Dont expect for any FOMO thing but rather im anticipating for some another Boring market situation.Well, in talks of long term aspects then we would all like to have that increasing prices
but if we do just talk on the particular halving situation then im not really that expecting much.I do even believe that the hype is already over when we do hit up 10k and now is the time for
another sideways movement for upcoming months or onwards.I do prefer this way than seeing a market thats bubble-like just like what happened in 2017 where it do increase up too fast
but same goes on how fast it did make a hard dump.

The price retrace at $8300 and it bounced back because it is a major support, right now the price is trailing at short term dynamic support which is the 20 MA. There is also no sign of momentum at all even if the Halving is already finished, I think there is a delay as long as the price will not breakdown expect a rally that will happen. The RSI also is looking good because it is already bounce on its support. We should just control our expectation because anything can happen especially in the very volatile market.

carlfebz2

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Dont expect for any FOMO thing but rather im anticipating for some another Boring market situation.Well, in talks of long term aspects then we would all like to have that increasing prices
but if we do just talk on the particular halving situation then im not really that expecting much.I do even believe that the hype is already over when we do hit up 10k and now is the time for
another sideways movement for upcoming months or onwards.I do prefer this way than seeing a market thats bubble-like just like what happened in 2017 where it do increase up too fast
but same goes on how fast it did make a hard dump.

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I expect a FOMO situation. Bitcoin has had two halvings each bringing significant rise in the market price, in the long-run. The first time could be called a coincidence, but after the second halving which sparked the bull run that led to the current ATH, there's enough basis to attract people to invest in Bitcoin purely on the idea of a halving charge. This would attract a lot of new investors, who just hear about a significant event upcoming, and they think; this could be a chance to make profit. This would likely push the price short term. Creating more interest and more FOMO. I also expect there would be a correction period in-between.

thecodebear

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The panic sell already happened a couple days before the halving. People got too excited about an incoming post-halving panic sell and did it early. The FOMO event will happen as a slow build over months, I don't see a huge spike about to happen as we just gained from $3k to $9k the past 8 weeks. So probably the boring scenario, where it'll probably bottom out here in the 8000s or maybe even high 7000s then move back to 9000s and play around in the 8k-10k range for a bit, slowly building upwards in spurts as the supply pressure of the halving slowly builds.

onrise

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Quote from: Yourhomeboy on May 11, 2020, 10:57:36 AM

I chose the huge panic selling. All I see is news about people hoping to see bitcoin price increase after the halving. But won't understand that if they stop buying bitcoin, the price will not increase as expected. After the halving and what they expected of bitcoin to do, it doesn't happen. They will likely sell their coins putting the bitcoin price at risk. I hope they start buying again after the price has started increasing weak later after the halving.

I expect the prices to increase slowly if not all of the sudden. I also expect many investors to buy the crypto for the next few months consdi3ring the global economy and this will yield the more demand and as halving will reduce the mining of bitcoin the price will grow eventually. Though it may take some time but do expect the prices to rebound from this level.

seoincorporation

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Quote from: mk4 on May 05, 2020, 02:05:03 AM

... hence some miners might need to turn off their machines.

I like the 3 scenarios you share with us, i mean any of them are possible, but i think we should focus more on this point because i think we will see a big number of miners turning off after the halving. I'm not sure how will that affect the price, but if those mining farms sell their bitcoin that will be a massive dump.

Topic: The Bitcoin halving's 3 possible scenarios. (Read 613 times)