Looks like #1 is happening already.
FOMO.
I thought it will be a boring week.
But look at the sections here and it is filled with threads about the halving.
Members are excited and I like that, it might help for a while. Asking different kind of question and are still on 50-50 if they will really buy at the expensive price.
But, there is always the truth in which traders will sell. When they reach that line another dump will happen.
Topic: The Bitcoin halving's 3 possible scenarios. - page 2. (Read 683 times)
I chose the huge panic selling. All I see is news about people hoping to see bitcoin price increase after the halving. But won't understand that if they stop buying bitcoin, the price will not increase as expected. After the halving and what they expected of bitcoin to do, it doesn't happen. They will likely sell their coins putting the bitcoin price at risk. I hope they start buying again after the price has started increasing weak later after the halving.
Once the weak hands have all left the price rise can continue. Expect at least another year before you see the upward price explosion people seem to think will come next week.
Weak-hands have already left during the crash to $3,600 - $3,800 in my opinion. Plus everything is already priced in - the halving, AND the "crash" after halving. Individuals from both groups must have already bought or sold.
one way or another, halving is designed to provoke a shortage of bitcoin in the market, which means that this will lead to an inevitable increase in bitcoin prices. and based on this, Bitcoin mining will again be profitable over time. The main thing is that Bitcoin holders, upon reaching a certain maximum, do not begin to sell massively in order to earn a lot and very quickly.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Lots of people are piling in to get rich from the halving. They will sell as soon as their expectations aren’t met causing downward pressure on the price.
Lots of people are piling in to get rich from the halving. They will sell as soon as their expectations aren’t met causing downward pressure on the price.
I believe not immediately, IF there are some of "them" left.
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Once the weak hands have all left the price rise can continue. Expect at least another year before you see the upward price explosion people seem to think will come next week.
Weak-hands have already left during the crash to $3,600 - $3,800 in my opinion. Plus everything is already priced in - the halving, AND the "crash" after halving. Individuals from both groups must have already bought or sold.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Lots of people are piling in to get rich from the halving. They will sell as soon as their expectations aren’t met causing downward pressure on the price. Once the weak hands have all left the price rise can continue. Expect at least another year before you see the upward price explosion people seem to think will come next week.
Lots of people are piling in to get rich from the halving. They will sell as soon as their expectations aren’t met causing downward pressure on the price. Once the weak hands have all left the price rise can continue. Expect at least another year before you see the upward price explosion people seem to think will come next week.
Just came back to lurk after ages to read the sentiment as the Halving approaches
Personally I voted for the boring scenario, realistically I see it being the bull run scenario a significant amount of money has been printed to battle COVID leading to a Cyprus reignition point that caused the last rally.
The potential crisis with the entire economic system has not played out yet and we may also see shifts to the current hegemony that are pro bitcoin and crypto. China just started its blockchain system a few weeks ago so interesting times.
That said these are a bit long term in outlook compared to reality and as it is I don't see it occurring for a while yet.
Bullish, however, is my personal opinion based on the speculation of new money entering into Bitcoin as people search up the Bitcoin halving and to be honest ... with the world in a social distance state the attention this event may attract and the people who are speculating the markets will bring a lot more people into the game.
Just a new influx of money from people who receive cheques and are financially stable enough to invest will cause a rally.
Will they get the accounts settled and prepared by next week well that's the real question after the halving will there be a short term drop on the news and a rally after hard to say kind of fun that way though.
New money is sometimes stupid money though so FOMO can happen
Personally I voted for the boring scenario, realistically I see it being the bull run scenario a significant amount of money has been printed to battle COVID leading to a Cyprus reignition point that caused the last rally.
The potential crisis with the entire economic system has not played out yet and we may also see shifts to the current hegemony that are pro bitcoin and crypto. China just started its blockchain system a few weeks ago so interesting times.
That said these are a bit long term in outlook compared to reality and as it is I don't see it occurring for a while yet.
Bullish, however, is my personal opinion based on the speculation of new money entering into Bitcoin as people search up the Bitcoin halving and to be honest ... with the world in a social distance state the attention this event may attract and the people who are speculating the markets will bring a lot more people into the game.
Just a new influx of money from people who receive cheques and are financially stable enough to invest will cause a rally.
Will they get the accounts settled and prepared by next week well that's the real question after the halving will there be a short term drop on the news and a rally after hard to say kind of fun that way though.
New money is sometimes stupid money though so FOMO can happen
Do you believe the "new money" would come in mere days, or hours before the halving? I would debate that the halving is already known four years before, and that the "new money" have already came in, and already priced it in.
can i choose 4 of the choices on the poll op ? number 1 is the fomo event or fear of missing out .
people will try to accumulate right now or when the halving is getting close because they believe price will rise and then number 2 is the panic selling will occur during and after halving because price finally pump at these times and there goes number 3 the price will dump so so it wil gonnabe boring again . lastly number 4 , i cant think of something else
people will try to accumulate right now or when the halving is getting close because they believe price will rise and then number 2 is the panic selling will occur during and after halving because price finally pump at these times and there goes number 3 the price will dump so so it wil gonnabe boring again . lastly number 4 , i cant think of something else
^ IF, there is probably no panic selling event after the halving for most of the traders already aware that bitcoin's price will still pump and they will surely hold to their asset until the market recovers and begin trading at the time they think it is already manageable to them. Let assume that newbies probably experience fomo because evidently it shows the slow movement on bitcoin's price. At the end of the day, it may be a make or break for investors depending on their skills in handling scenarios like this halving. You have a good point of view OP, nevertheless, we will see to it what will happen next after the halving.
I'm into boring scenario
Since I didn't feel the halving effect for now compare to past few years of halving days since whenever the even close by the price stretching up but for now since there us pandemic the people are now not on investments that's why we see a rough start from the market.
Since I didn't feel the halving effect for now compare to past few years of halving days since whenever the even close by the price stretching up but for now since there us pandemic the people are now not on investments that's why we see a rough start from the market.
I love the crowd so far, voted for what turned out to be the majority (7 votes) because yes man, we've had past more impactful halvings already happen and shit didn't go hit the fan (in a good way) until months later.
We's gonna see a lot of yawnfest nothings in the next few weeks at least, if not months.
Definitely not a short-term precursor. @Exolix: even less effect if you do Covid-19 considerations. People will be squeezed for money and jobs. Buying bitcoin last on their mind. Selling it maybe to pay bills.
We's gonna see a lot of yawnfest nothings in the next few weeks at least, if not months.
Definitely not a short-term precursor. @Exolix: even less effect if you do Covid-19 considerations. People will be squeezed for money and jobs. Buying bitcoin last on their mind. Selling it maybe to pay bills.
Bitcoin's price concerning the halving has really been a very hot topic for the past few weeks, and it's pretty evident due to the number of questions we've been getting here on Bitcointalk concerning bitcoin's price.
So, as if we haven't been getting enough halving topics, here I am, creating another one. I blame the pandemic for me having so much time, I guess. And also hopefully so that we get a lot less redundant "will bitcoin rise after halving?" topics.
So, will bitcoin rise in price? or will it be coming crashing down temporarily? Out of the 3 potential short-term scenarios, what do you think is likely to occur?
So, as if we haven't been getting enough halving topics, here I am, creating another one. I blame the pandemic for me having so much time, I guess. And also hopefully so that we get a lot less redundant "will bitcoin rise after halving?" topics.
So, will bitcoin rise in price? or will it be coming crashing down temporarily? Out of the 3 potential short-term scenarios, what do you think is likely to occur?
Do these scenarios take into account the pandemic? Well, you know, a new variable has appeared in the equation that matters. Covid- 19 affects the financial, physical, emotional state of bitcoin owners. And is it possible to somehow take this into account?
p.s.voted for The Boring Scenario
Going with that theme, in all likelihood there will be a "sell the news" element at play, given the amount of hype we're seeing. My Twitter feed and the Speculation forum have been completely overtaken by it. Mainstream media coverage too.
For sure. The thing that makes things harder in this case is how high can bitcoin actually get due to the hype? While I don't think there will be much upward price movements in the short term, I could definitely be wrong. I thought bitcoin's ceiling was at around 8k in the bull run of 2017 so I don't really trust my crystal ball LOL. One thing's for sure, Bitcoin surprises us from time to time.
The only scenario that is unlikely to occur is the huge panic selling event. (...)
I don't think so. Just always remember, in Bitcoin nothing is impossible. Expect the unexpected, for me I am worried because of the panic selling event or in positive side for me is Boring scenario. Huge panic selling event is possible, but for me if this will happen, this is just a short time, like a huge candle wicks.
So "up, down, or sideways?" 
This halving is shaping up much like 2016. The May-June 2016 pump felt very similar. There was a very significant dip afterwards.
Going with that theme, in all likelihood there will be a "sell the news" element at play, given the amount of hype we're seeing. My Twitter feed and the Speculation forum have been completely overtaken by it. Mainstream media coverage too.
There are also significantly more leveraged longs now than there were in April, which may provide additional selling pressure if the rally sputters out.
This halving is shaping up much like 2016. The May-June 2016 pump felt very similar. There was a very significant dip afterwards.
Going with that theme, in all likelihood there will be a "sell the news" element at play, given the amount of hype we're seeing. My Twitter feed and the Speculation forum have been completely overtaken by it. Mainstream media coverage too.
There are also significantly more leveraged longs now than there were in April, which may provide additional selling pressure if the rally sputters out.
There will possibly be a pump above $10,000 in the next week, if that happens then the price will probably have a bit of a dump shortly after the halving. We’ll then slowly see the price rise throughout the rest of 2020 & then see new highs in 2021.
Exactly, BTCs main story will continue only after the Halving right now it's slowly moving up might be because of FOMOs. After Halving there will be a serious panic sell the reason is people don't have enough money as the lockdowns are still in progress in many countries, well if this happens the price of BTC will be affected very badly. And like you said we can expect some positive signs by 2021..
Just a new influx of money from people who receive cheques and are financially stable enough to invest will cause a rally.
I've also thought about this too. But this scenario itself, also has an opposing possibilities. While new influx of money can definitely go into the markets due to the stimulus checks, but we could also argue that the last thing that people would own in times off economic uncertainty are volatile assets like bitcoin. Again, it boils down to "no one knows" lmao.
The only scenario that is unlikely to occur is the huge panic selling event. We all know that Bitcoin already capitulated when the huge flash crash occurred when stock market falls due to the corona and we've seen the rise of Bitcoin keyword searches and wallet hodlers and im expecting it would not be a boring event.
We surely know that it will lead to an increase in the long run but to the scenario of how much it can go down before the rise, is not predictable for me. Therefore it is better for me to hodl until I get to my selling point at $15,000. At that point, I think the initial pump can have a drop.
There will possibly be a pump above $10,000 in the next week, if that happens then the price will probably have a bit of a dump shortly after the halving. We’ll then slowly see the price rise throughout the rest of 2020 & then see new highs in 2021.
I would bet that there is a big percentage that this halving could be the Boring Scenario because of the covid effect.
But there is also a possibility of a FOMO because of covid people would try to use crypto to earn online so there could be a batch of fresh money for the market.
But the FOMO would only be for the newbie's not for us who have been in crypto game for long.
But there is also a possibility of a FOMO because of covid people would try to use crypto to earn online so there could be a batch of fresh money for the market.
But the FOMO would only be for the newbie's not for us who have been in crypto game for long.
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