Topic: The bitcoin price crashes - here's why - page 2. (Read 4810 times)

I think/hope you are inevitably right - For those that agree - yourselves, like me probably have been in this game for a while and have a nice collection of BTC.

Now, my question is; At what price would you acquire more in bulk? I'm strongly considering investing another 25K and ok buying-in at current price $180

I'm sorry, but that IS a demand.  Actually, it is a very real and inelastic demand !
However, it is true that that demand can only be responsible for a MUCH LOWER price of a coin, as given by the monetary formula P x Q = M x V.

This is why I insisted since I've been here (that is summer 2014 when I entered bitcoin) that the real fundamental is merchant adoption, as a *currency*.  That merchant adoption is on the rise in 2014.  However, it is still so terribly low that it can only support a price in the single or maybe double digits.

I've been countered by many to say that merchant adoption is not a fundamental but "store of value" is.  That's ridiculous, as I pointed out: store of value comes with trust, after another fundamental (currency) has shown that there IS a demand for it.  Gold has 5000 year proof of trust.  Bitcoin has only a very volatile 6 years behind it, and if anything, it proves that it is NOT YET a store of value.

However, it could become a great currency.

The market is finally realizing this.

sure i think thats because 19 k lost btc and cloud mining famous

You have to laugh, when you see all these Nay sayers, cherrie picking certian things, to bash the currency.... When it was $1000+ they were the same people, singing it's praise's.

Let's digest 2014

1. it was the year, where HUGE companies like DELL / Microsoft and atleast 5000 smaller merchants in only Taiwon, adopted Bitcoin.
2. Huge amounts of Fed coins were put back into circulation, when it was sold on auction. {Some are kept in storage}
3. Miners are dumping almost ALL coins back on exchanges to be converted to fiat to pay for electricity costs etc.

So the situation now, is this :

We have HUGE amounts of coins being sold for fiat, more than previous years. {Merchants like Dell / Microsoft is definately not hoarding coins}
We have coins being brought back into circulation, which was previously hoarded. {Hoarders buying products from these NEW merchants coming in}
We have Fed coins, perceived as being back in circulation. {Previously, the Fed protected those coins and it was not availlable to the public}
We have a higher percentage of coins being converted to fiat from the miners side. {As the price goes down, they have to sell more coins to pay for the electricity}

The result :

There are more coins availlable, and this push the price down.

The solution :

1. Merchants should hoard some coins, and not convert everything directly to fiat {In the long run, this will increase their profits}
2. People buying coins from the Fed autions, should see this as a long term investment and slowly put them back into circulation.
3. Most difficult option - Miners will have to find ways to reduce the amount of coins, they put into circulation. {What they are forced to do now, will even hurt them more, in the future}

i was shocked when i saw 200$ price at first, and the first thing that came to my mind was that it might be a good opportunity to buy. but now i am not that sure

If it keeps dropping like this we're all going to get rich again.

@PINOY, DEV's JOB LOL

I should remind the audience that Bitcoin is free and open source.

To me, this is just an opportunity to buy more bitcoin at a much cheaper price.  I have no doubt the value will climb again, but I have no idea how long it will take.

A miner dropping out, seriously?  No, the obvious reason for the crash in price is that the recent hack at Bitstamp panicked a lot of people, who started selling.  I can't say that I blame them, really.  I'm starting to wonder if I'm dumb for not selling earlier, but I always knew it was a gamble and high risk investment buying bitcoins, and I sleep soundly at night even with my paper loss.  I'm still hopeful that the price will go up again eventually.

Would that sort of dead cat bounce be something similar to the typical price increase after conferences?  Seems like it to me.  Although.. I can also imagine people taking advantage of such a bounce especially given the current trend in price decrease.

who knows...  just watch it go down, go sideways, then trend up again.  and beware of fake reversals aka the dead cat bounce.

People who think Bitcoin (a toy virtual asset)...
Has ANYTHING to do with the USD are crazy = zero correlation.

The USD is up 20% in recent years because there is huge global demand...
Russia, Africa, South America... everywhere USD is wanted and used to pay for IMPORTANT things.

The Fed is fucking brilliant...
They are printing shiny pieces of paper and selling them for $100 to people in the Third World.
 

It's going to the $100 range...

What does it all mean?  How low will it go?  Does this mean it's still better to buy btc or invest in mining gear?

Exactly so.

Right now Bitcoin is shedding the speculative adopters because for them it makes more sense to hold USD while the debt singularity is busy devouring Dollar liquidity.

While this continues Bitcoin will see organic adoption rather than speculative adoption.

The organic adopters are were already in the informal economy, and those who get pushed into the informal economy due to the effects of USD appreciation.

Sooner or later, appreciation of the USD is going to cause financial distress for indebted Americans (statistically speaking, all Americans). As more people get pushed over the edge and end up facing the gamut of civil judgements and their associated wage and bank account garnishments, the fraction of people who need Bitcoin's censorship resistance will increase.

Someone who's facing a 100% garnishment of what little money they have in the bank would do better to have all of that value in Bitcoin, even if there's a potential 90% downside risk. Keeping 10% is better than keeping 0%.

The last time we saw this kind of mass financial distress was 2008, and just like we saw then people will adapt to financial distress by joining the informal economy.

The major difference between now and then is that "cash under the table" income is no longer an option that's restricted to blue collar labor.

The ability to get paid by clients anywhere in the world without moving funds through the banking system means that tens of millions of middle class professionals now have the same opportunity. In fact, the are arguably in an even better position because anyone who produces digital deliverables can now access a global client base.

For someone who purports to know a lot about trading and markets, you seem to not understand that the market knows more than you and what you deem to be important or assume are the motivators.

cyberpinoy is right

yes, there is no demand. ONLY 1 MIL real users in 6 years.

I think any other e-currency from market has triple than Bitcoin and without any lobby in media.

it is a bubble, few people earned a lot of money (mostly exchangers who manipulated the market and few others...a gang) and now...someone must pay the bill.  

Your'e right, they usually are registered around November 13 when the bubble started and just came here to get rich.

Bitcoin believers are barely batting an eyelash, it's all the "fairweather friends" running around like chickens with their head cut off.

Bitcoin is crashing because the liquidity of USD is dramatically worsen since the stop of QE3, now every raw material and other foreign currencies are going down together with bitcoin, spare assets are being sold out in exchange for USD because there is no 2.8 billion USD trickle down from FED every day

Soon we will see some bank run into liquidity problem and the rise of interbank lending rate. Under such a situation, FED either print more money or let banks die. If they select the first, bitcoin will be pumped up again just like the previous QE. If they select later, banks who ran out of fiat money will turn to bitcoin holders to borrow bitcoin. Unlike USD, bitcoin's value is very scalable, you could just borrow 1 bitcoin and use it as 1 billion USD, then all their liquidity problem will be solved

Imagine that in 2008, when Lehman Brother had their problem, if they could just turn to bitcoin holders and borrow some bitcoin, they would not go down and the financial crisis might have been avoided. But there was no bitcoin in 2008