It was a day that left bitcoin believers horrified, panicked and quite probably far poorer. The bitcoin market has crashed by around 15% in the last 24 hours, driven by a mix of fundamentals and fear. Our theory is that the price fall was in no small part driven by the combination of increased bitcoin mining difficulty and the prolonged bitcoin price declines, events which have led to some large cloud mining outfits like Cex.io and GHash.io shutting down and rumors of others being in trouble (and perhaps quietly winding back their operations).
The pull back in mining has in turn impacted block propagation times, with confirmation times of up to 2 and a half hours in yesterday’s session, far longer than is ordinarily the case (see blockchain.info screen capture below). This may have added fuel to the bearish fire, with traders and miners alike selling off coins as fear took hold. Naturally we cannot be certain that our theory is accurate, but it does seem to hold some weight.
The bitcoin price opened at 268 on the BitFinex charts and fell steeply soon after the open on the back of huge sell orders which dominated early trading. The selling pressure continued to mount over the next few hoursand caused the bitcoin price to hit a low of 226. At this point, there was some attempt from the bulls to hold the price and drive it up moderately to 230-235 where it currently sits.
What to Expect Today? We are expecting atleast a brief pullback towards the 255 resistance level, at which point the question of ‘how low can we go?’ could reasonably be asked. The panic that is currently gripping the market is leading some to speculate that the next bottom will be the psychologically important 200 level, while others think the price could fall well below this. To dig into this question further, we have taken a look at the historic 1-week bitcoin price chart.
The red horizontal line in the chart marks the point from which the infamous Bitcoin bubble took off in 2013, with the price exploding to its all-time high around 1200. The patterns in the chart suggest that 133 is potentially a solid bottom in the event that bearish sentiment continues to prevail over the coming days and weeks. Looking at the nearer term, we think 200 fits the bill as a likely support level. We do not expect any violent rebound.
Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Strongly Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 11 Sell)
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