Topic: The China Hype Fades Away - page 2. (Read 8322 times)

Quote from: Cluster2k on May 09, 2013, 12:23:48 PM

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

Google is not blocked in China

Chinese people don't typically use Google though (I live in Shanghai) - Baidu is the search engine of choice.
Though the Google trends stats is obviously still a good indicator

You're right about Google not being popular over there, lived in Shanghai 5 years myself.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

It's not necessarily a bad thing. The average Chinese speculator chases bubble like everyone else, but with special zeal and gusto. If they don't get rich quick on bitcoins they'll find something else to inflate.

Example. The garlic bubble of 2010:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/30/garlic-chinese-commodity-bubble

There were media reports from the time of speculators buying truckloads of garlic and hoarding them, hoping to get rich quick. The whole bubble popped of course and the speculators rightfully got burned.

That's fun Grin

I didn't know that happened. Some of the Chinese aren't much wiser than 17th century dutch people. Thanks for sharing.

Makes me think of Hugh Hendry too: 'thou shalt not invest in overcapacity!'

dancupid

hero member

Activity: 955

Merit: 1002

Quote from: bootlace on May 09, 2013, 01:45:47 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on May 09, 2013, 01:18:55 PM

Quote from: BitChick on May 09, 2013, 01:02:42 PM

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

Google is not blocked in China

Chinese people don't typically use Google though (I live in Shanghai) - Baidu is the search engine of choice.
Though the Google trends stats is obviously still a good indicator

ThatDGuy

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: Rampion on May 09, 2013, 12:25:59 PM

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest. Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner.

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap. It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]". What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet. You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This is very accurate. Process is slow.

YES! This is how it is! If someone can make an easier way for the average person to get into BTC there will be no stopping it. Sure there is a learning curve at the beginning, but once we choose to invest it still takes so long and is very frustrating. I have a friend that wanted to buy but never did because it was too complicated. She is very smart too and somewhat comfortable with technology, but just getting cash into BTC is not easy. I would probably have invested even more if it was easier to do so.

It will certainly help, but honestly I don't think I would believe in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general as much if I hadn't spent that much time wrapping my head around them.

Short term, though,you're absolutely right: being able to get money in and out easier would (and will!) mean the future bubbles or hype cycles are potentially huge...

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Quote from: jl2012 on May 09, 2013, 01:18:55 PM

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap. It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]". What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet. You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This PLUS way less information available in Chinese, way fewer people to help you, etc. They are at a far less advanced stage ecosystem-wise, though they are getting the news hype a little so it's not exactly like a few years ago in the English-language space, but similar in that there are many hindrances to the casual entrant - even more than the already difficult process for an English speaker.

bootlace

full member

Activity: 364

Merit: 100

Justice as a Service Infrastructure

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

Google is not blocked in China

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

This is my thread in late Feb when the price was still below 30: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/warning-to-bears-big-players-in-china-146768

China will play a more important role, but not until the next bubble

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

I agree it is a matter of time.

bootlace

full member

Activity: 364

Merit: 100

Justice as a Service Infrastructure

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

I think it is your graph that is deceptive because it totally hides the rise and fall relating to the time period we're referencing because of lack of space on the x-axis.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest. Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner.

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap. It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]". What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet. You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

this is very true.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

They will jump in as soon as the next bubble inflates. Only at that time you will see the huge momentum from China

superduh

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

bootlace

full member

Activity: 364

Merit: 100

Justice as a Service Infrastructure

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest. Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner.

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

Quote from: Rampion on May 09, 2013, 12:25:59 PM

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap. It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]". What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet. You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

Do you realize that the search metrics that I linked to apply directly to the first step of your list: "Read about it". For explosive growth to happen you need more and more people start your list/chain and that means the first step is key. The current trend suggests that there is as many people starting your investment chain as there was before the news = the short-term hype is past.

BitChick

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1001

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest. Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner.

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap. It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]". What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet. You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This is very accurate. Process is slow.

YES! This is how it is! If someone can make an easier way for the average person to get into BTC there will be no stopping it. Sure there is a learning curve at the beginning, but once we choose to invest it still takes so long and is very frustrating. I have a friend that wanted to buy but never did because it was too complicated. She is very smart too and somewhat comfortable with technology, but just getting cash into BTC is not easy. I would probably have invested even more if it was easier to do so.

Le Happy Merchant

hero member

Activity: 634

Merit: 500

When I first heard about Bitcoin, I wanted in that day. It took me three months to do it right. Give them some time.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest. Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner.

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

Quote from: bootlace on May 09, 2013, 11:35:18 AM

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap. It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]". What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet. You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This is very accurate. Process is slow.

Cluster2k

legendary

Activity: 1692

Merit: 1018

It's not necessarily a bad thing. The average Chinese speculator chases bubble like everyone else, but with special zeal and gusto. If they don't get rich quick on bitcoins they'll find something else to inflate.

Example. The garlic bubble of 2010:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/30/garlic-chinese-commodity-bubble

There were media reports from the time of speculators buying truckloads of garlic and hoarding them, hoping to get rich quick. The whole bubble popped of course and the speculators rightfully got burned.

dancupid

hero member

Activity: 955

Merit: 1002

Hate to be the bearer of bad news as people tend to go spastic at the sight of any non-bullish news but seems like the whole China explosion people were expecting has fizzled out rather quietly:

Baidu searches for Bitcoin in Chinese: http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

Google searches for Bitcoin in Chinese: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Sourceforge downloads: http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline

Shit - I was pinning all my hopes and dreams on this.

thezerg

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1010

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest. Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner.

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.