Topic: the crash is over? (Read 4606 times)
I'm interested to see what the bottom turns out to be. That's not saying much, everyone here is waiting to see that. But I'm looking forward to seeing how the long-term volatility of BTC shapes up. To have a repeat of the 2011 crash from 30 to around 2, we'd need to break below 20. If the bottom turns out to be significantly above 20, I'd take it as supportive of the theory that volatility should go down as trading volume goes up, in the long term.
Today was very interesting. If you look at the hourly chart it looks almost identical to the "zoomed out" chart of the april crash. Oh fractal nature of markets...
If history is to be repeated, the price is going to gradually decrease to about $110, accelerating towards $100. There will be some big sell-offs at around that $90-$100 resistance. If it holds, then both bubbles can be called over.
If it does not and $80ish support is broken, we are entering a dangerous bear territory.
If history is to be repeated, the price is going to gradually decrease to about $110, accelerating towards $100. There will be some big sell-offs at around that $90-$100 resistance. If it holds, then both bubbles can be called over.
If it does not and $80ish support is broken, we are entering a dangerous bear territory.
Quote from: rpietila
What I think, however, is that some time from now on, it will come from the likes of me. True believers.
It's funny, though, because many of our resident Occupy Wall St. Bears would label you a
"greedy speculator who doesn't believe in or care about bitcoin," simply because you have more than, say, [$5000 USD worth of bitcoins] (arbitrary amount, because, around here, having a fiat savings account is OK but we're supposed to treat Bitcoin like a hot potato lest we be labeled 'greedy.') It's interesting how "true believer" means different things to different folks... But as you say,
Quote from: rpietila
[...] the successful speculators have no reason to come here to spread FUD, they are already pumping the next bubble in Madagaskar real estate or something with their quick gains.
The real speculators are done and onto the next bubble, lol @ Madagascar real estate.
For the FUDers, no matter why the price goes up, they'll always blame it on "greedy speculators." Any price rise must surely be due to bubble-pumpers rather than thousands upon thousands of people just like me, buying bitcoins to avoid fiat and for the sheer convenience.
i'm glad i was right. "correction" happening. hopefully it will go slower
I don't know if it's over, but I do know that I've never trading something so resilient as BTC. All those little crashes on they way to 260 were blips after a few days.
It's because there are no shorts. Everyone that is trading is long by definition. If they sell, it's to buy back at a lower price or to take profits.
It creates massive swings, but has huge upside.
It's because there are no shorts. Everyone that is trading is long by definition. If they sell, it's to buy back at a lower price or to take profits.
It creates massive swings, but has huge upside.
+1.
To add: People have tendency to project their own actions or thought to the general public. I, for one, am super bullish long term, have done my homework, bought on equity (not credit) on the way to $100, stopped buying, sold a tiny bit over $200 (had intention to sell 25% at an average price of $400 but we never got that far), resumed buying at $100 and now I am slowly accumulating more as I don't have "excess" assets that could be converted to BTC (my silver is also getting interesting..), I would never panic sell, but I did panic buy several times on the way up.
I think most of the new entrants in Jan-March were like me.
If someone, on the other hand, actually bought on margin, solely for the reason that it went up, and is now either exited or busted, he may very well think that most of the new money was from the likes of him.
What I think, however, is that some time from now on, it will come from the likes of me. True believers. It will be an excellent entry point, as we cannot go but up from the point where all sellers have sold already. The "bears" in this forum are people waiting to buy back, the successful speculators have no reason to come here to spread FUD, they are already pumping the next bubble in Madagaskar real estate or something with their quick gains.
looks very stable to me, lets see how it ends up by the end of the week
Yes, I hope it stabilizes soon. I can't sleep with all this 24/7 volatility.
looks very stable to me, lets see how it ends up by the end of the week
We double bottomed around $50. If you didn't buy on the dip or panicked and sold your coins for cheap, then commiserations.
You guys are so cute.
I don't know if it's over, but I do know that I've never trading something so resilient as BTC.
+1
I don't know if it's over, but I do know that I've never trading something so resilient as BTC. All those little crashes on they way to 260 were blips after a few days.
It's because there are no shorts. Everyone that is trading is long by definition. If they sell, it's to buy back at a lower price or to take profits.
It creates massive swings, but has huge upside.
It's because there are no shorts. Everyone that is trading is long by definition. If they sell, it's to buy back at a lower price or to take profits.
It creates massive swings, but has huge upside.
I think the worst is behind us. The market has tried to break through the $50 support twice and failed, this gives confidence and makes speculators afraid to try that a third time and fail again. We're going up again with a slowly rising support level is my opinion.
I am fairly sure we will only go up when the bears have completely blown their wads and got nothing more to burn.
hahah really made me laugh glad i wasn't drinking a hot coffee
Nope, it's crashing upwards now 
it's hilarious how perfectly sentiment lags price. when everyone was all doom and gloom, this rally was born. now that everyone's on board, it's topping. short term top at $8x.xx
selling pressure, ON!
Nope, it's crashing upwards now
Crash is over, correction will continue...
Thank you so much for your information.
I feel a change in the wind, but I have to say I'm still very dubious that things have shaken out this quickly. I'm still bearish overall.
That said, I didn't expect my buy orders that were just above $50 to kick till the end of the week if this was a long slide down - so could this really be a big correction rather than a crash? If $50 was the bottom then I'll be a bit gutted that I didn't buy more (I was expecting $40 or lower).
Stating the obvious I think we can expect more volatility either way. Hold on to your hats.
That said, I didn't expect my buy orders that were just above $50 to kick till the end of the week if this was a long slide down - so could this really be a big correction rather than a crash? If $50 was the bottom then I'll be a bit gutted that I didn't buy more (I was expecting $40 or lower).
Stating the obvious I think we can expect more volatility either way. Hold on to your hats.
If BTC/USD can double and then crash to half in a day, it can bottom and stabilise in a week -- and that is what it appears to be doing.
39K BTC Bid wall at 70$ and it's rising. Looks like all the sellers are getting back in the game.
I agree
Speculating....keeps you up at night. 
39K BTC Bid wall at 70$ and it's rising. Looks like all the sellers are getting back in the game.
I feel a change in the wind, but I have to say I'm still very dubious that things have shaken out this quickly. I'm still bearish overall.
That said, I didn't expect my buy orders that were just above $50 to kick till the end of the week if this was a long slide down - so could this really be a big correction rather than a crash? If $50 was the bottom then I'll be a bit gutted that I didn't buy more (I was expecting $40 or lower).
Stating the obvious I think we can expect more volatility either way. Hold on to your hats.
That said, I didn't expect my buy orders that were just above $50 to kick till the end of the week if this was a long slide down - so could this really be a big correction rather than a crash? If $50 was the bottom then I'll be a bit gutted that I didn't buy more (I was expecting $40 or lower).
Stating the obvious I think we can expect more volatility either way. Hold on to your hats.
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