Topic: the crash is over? - page 2. (Read 4606 times)

Looks to me like it's stabilizing.

If this bubble took a month to peak ( and it took longer than that) doesn't it stand to reason that it will take at least a month to get back to some kind of stability?

People are pointing to $50 because its a nice round number, I think it will drop to where we were at the beginning of March because we all know MTGox is broken, and that does cause more doubt than you can make a graph with!

I wouldn't worry. Fundamentals are still there.

In no particular order:

1) Deposit confiscation is getting worldwide
2) Limited bitcoin supply is there.
3) Mtgox and others should be stronger than ever, in terms of machinery and capital.
4) Bitcoin transactions are more than ever. Look here http://blockchain.info/el/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

5) The number of involved people is bigger than ever. Look here http://blockchain.info/el/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

 

I am fairly sure we will only go up when the bears have completely blown their wads and got nothing more to burn.

We have tried it 4 times now:
- During the time Mt.Gox was closed for 12 hours, in Bitstamp and other exchanges
- Immediately after Mt.Gox was opened, in MtGox
- About 12 hours after it was opened, in MtGox
- Yesterday, in MtGox

It is starting to feel strong.. Maybe it will fall next 

I think the worst is behind us. The market has tried to break through the $50 support twice and failed, this gives confidence and makes speculators afraid to try that a third time and fail again. We're going up again with a slowly rising support level is my opinion.

That's good. I would think it nets you more than it takes.

I would give a 20% chance now, that bitcoin in a major traded exchange would go below $50, 12% for a visit to $32. (Before end of 2013)

Less than 5% that we linger at around 50 next autumn.

Today it is my opinion (caveat!) that we will see our first green candlestick since the crash.

Link? 

This crash was not a mere correction. I for one am buying back when I see a reason to on the weekly chart.

nice list of points. it should be noted that the wall at 70, which I believe is currently holding up the current price, is the work of a handful of people (all of those buy orders appeared together over a few minutes), and when that person/people log off for the day where ever they are (canceling their buy orders if they dont actually want them filled, and I believe they dont or there'd be a lot more volume via market buys), then the price will drop back into 60s range.

Impossible to know for sure...

Arguments for :
* record volume trying to sell into the $50 support, twice, not broken. Capitulation ?
* fundamentals look great. Lots of new businesses and buyers. MtGox seems to have fixed their lag problem.
* lots of confidence that was not present in 2011 - at the time it was the first bubble and no one knew if Bitcoin would survive. Today its recovery is a question of when, not if.
* forum bears are quieter again (not just Proudhon, whether he's trolling to desperately get the price down or genuinely bullish, it's a bullish sign either way)
* usual eliott wave analysis of 0->30 = wave 1, 30->2 = wave 2, 2->266 = wave 3, 266->? = wave 4 implies that the low of wave 4 must be >32. Does not let much further downside than what we've already retraced from the 266 high.

Arguments against :
* even though we're now back at $70, we are not officially clear of the downtrend channel that started with the first bounce to $130 after the bubble popped. That rally may just be a correction for dropping 50% in a day (100->50) and the downtrend may contine slowly.
* bubble deflation was too quick ?
* still lots of people speculating. Way too much IMHO. The bulls are still in "yeah $100 by next week woohoo !" mode; after the true bottom I would expect the rally to restart very slowly, not go from $50 to $80 and back to $65 in less than a day.

What do you think ?

the crash is over. whether we slide downhill or get wind under our wings nobody knows.

After the high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011, at 31.90, the previous bitcoin bubble dropped to just 2.20. That drop took 159 days and most of the time the rate of decline was about 1% a day.  There were several high volume capitulations along the way.

To the extent that this bubble is typical, this crash is not over - the losses for buyers above 70 are only going to increase.

2011?

Was Beiber even born back then? Wasn't Regan president?

Past performance is not an indication of future results. If only it was that easy, we'd all be rich. Luckily I'm old enough I was there in 2011, this isn't remotely close to what happened then.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN4XpIbEY-Y

=)

I'm still bearish.  Using the June 2011 "crash" as a reference for how this one will turn out, prices will continue to drop for some time.  Obviously things are different in many ways now, but I think the price will steadily drop for some time.  We'll see whether I'm wrong soon.   

I use it both ways.

There won't be stability in any case while BTC trades at penny-stock prices. As the ecosystem expands, the net demand for BTC will rise, pushing the price up with it. But a steadily increasing price draws in the speculators and get-rich-quick crowd, fuelling the next bubble, which pops, and around and around we go...

There should be more stability at $10/mBTC.

I don't think it will ever stable out 100% if people arnt willing to use it as currency. They only see it as an investment which is a shame because the potential is there we just have to utilize it.

Looks like it -- buying pressure is increasing again. There is a big wall at $60 and $61 -- yesterday it was at $50; it look slike buyer sentiment is improving.

Still lots of selling pressure too, but she seems to be holding up well.