Topic: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work - page 16. (Read 96539 times)

You mean like the dollar is stable because it is anchored to the...  Or the way the Euro is stable because it is anchored to the...  Or the way the Yen is stable because it is anchored to the...

Well, shit.  I guess nothing is anchored to anything.  Hint:  currency stability comes from depth, not unicorns.

People didn't know about bitcoins before, then it go a lot of publicity, now people want the value that they didn't know it had before. Demand grew, price went up. Dollars are becoming worth less, and that hasn't been reflected in bitcoins until just now. I suspect the volatility is due to the inability to short bitcoins right now. So all speculators can only go up. Once we see speculators shorting, we'll get less volatile exchange (assuming the dollars being exchanged aren't themselves volatile)


They don't hold those billions in cash. They hold them in assets with different uses. Liquidity is less and less valued the more they have, then they start doing stuff with their money, not hording it all. Also, bitcoin isn't going to represent all transactions of the entire economy. There will probably be other monies and competing currencies. It's up in the air whether or not they understand marginal utility, but clearly you do not.


No, that's called a bubble, not a ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme is where you pay the old people dividends with the new people's money but everybody get's to keep the assets they had in the scheme. Bitcoin is a clear transfer of assets. Also it's only a bubble if the underlying value of it is much much lower than what it's trading for. And it's only a bubble if the underlying value can never catch up to the trading price. That all depends on it's ability to be traded for goods and not just dollars. The increase in value will convince people to accept bitcoin for trade. Which if it is in a bubble, will decrease it's severity.

That's not addressing the problem. What happens if the whole world accepted bitcoin tomorrow? The price would still be jumping up and down because it's not tied to any stable thing. We need a damn price anchor for stability. Bitcoins will eventually be like Picasso paintings, they can be sold at absolutely any price at any point in time.

In the ones I was familiar with you get only 3 or 5 or whatever limited number of tickets. Had it been unlimited the system would've collapsed too early because all patsies would be "early adopters" with no one to cough up the money.

Regardless, with bitcoin you simply earn more money the longer you hold on to the coins. Deflation is the same as "more tickets coming from nowhere".

So early adopters didn't have the advantage of creating 1 block per hour or per day when now you need to wait for weeks to create one? How the hell does that make any sense? Can you imagine the EU giving early "euro adopters" more euros?

And that whole risk argument is strawman. It's all about "early adopters taking more risk". Crap. Had they immediately spent their coins then they took no risk. But had they kept them then they're speculators not adopters. They were waiting for the price to go up because the system was built so the price perpetually goes up. And what risk did they take anyway? $10 on their electricity bill to generate 1000 BTCs? Does this justify the current profit rate of 100,000% for "early adopters" and even higher for "earlier adopters"? That's a pyramid scheme by definition.

Nobody smart enough to make $10M would join a Ponzi scheme. And it's exactly these kind of expectations which paralyze the market: "I'll hold on to my coins because soon enough some dude with $10M will enter the market, and then I can exit making a good buck!" Given no such thing can happen in the proposed system, it's much better than the current one as far as stable medium of exchanges (as averse to crazy speculations and price bubbles) are concerned.

If you don't want to join in the bitcoin spectulation and ignore all the arguments that been made, that's fine.  

When somebody invest 10 million dollars into the market, it's going to increase the price widely anyway. You can't expect price stability at time of extreme adoption.

In the meantime, I will keep posting that bitcoin bubble comic everytime somebody cry "BUBBLE!" on this forum. More traffic for me.

And what exactly is the problem in joining a sane, stable marathon? I have yet to see a single economic or technical argument against my suggestion. I think most "skeptics" are simply happy with the current system because they want to earn huge early-adopter profits when more patsies join in.

I'm even beginning to seriously doubt that Satoshi (not his real name) specifically designed the system that way so he could get away with whatever he made at the very beginning before the network went public. The dude could simply be a millionaire now. You guys are just hoping to become mini-Satoshis when more people jump on board.

@ Rlutz - FAQ added.

@ Suggester - As I said, I agree that Bitcoin is currently highly speculative which is unhealthy. The way to solve this is to get more mainstream shops to accept Bitcoin payments. Why do you keep obsessing about speculation as if that's all there is to Bitcoin?

In a pyramid, each person can own at most one ticket and can sell as many copies of that ticket as he likes. This will necessarily collapse as we run out of people without tickets. In Bitcoin I can have as many bitcoins as I can get, and I can send each only once. Thus it's like any other commodity.

In a ponzi, there is someone running the show who promises high returns on investment. In Bitcoin - even in its current unfortunate highly speculative state - there's no one at the top, and there's nobody (except some crazies) promising returns. It's you who evaluates the situation (perhaps based in part on the opinions of some people) and expects them to rise. If your evaluation turns out correct, more power to you.

Actually, I paid my writers through all the turbulence. I dropped the payment rate there and there, but I don't remember much raising prices. The price deflation was extreme  that I was not sure if I keep pace with the salary.

I don't have any regret at all. Growing the bitcoin economy is a marathon and my business is not a sprint.

I hope you paid them after the price crashed not before

If you received your bitcoin sallary around the 12th of April you probably wouldn't mind the speculative economy. If you got it around the the 10th of May though you would've been on my side now.

So? I never said it wasn't growing. I said it was a Ponzi scheme. A growing Ponzi scheme is still a Ponzi scheme. Moreover, Ponzi tickets were a valuable commodity at a time.
Tell me, how would a commodity buyer or a service provider like to price their goods/services to a roller coasting currency? I personally would never sell anything in BTCs unless I can liquidate it into fiat within 24 hours. Make that 12 hours if the transaction was huge.  How does that serve a "medium of exchange" purpose? Hell, you can't even go on vacation for a week without worrying your coins might be worth next to nothing by the time you come back. That's poison for any currency.

I don't need to "measure it". Suffice is to see the price skyrocket 10 fold in a month before crashing 50% within 10 days. I don't think that was due to the increase of genuine demand on bitcoin, do you? The bitcoin market didn't expand 10 times in a month before suddenly shrinking to half in 10 days. The current design has turned this beautiful idea into a speculators den.

Must be a ponzi scheme! http://bitcoinweekly.com/articles/reactions-to-bitcoin

That comic was not created by me. I paid somebody to create it and I paid somebody 22 times total for content on http://bitcoinweekly.com. I have one current employee, several freelancers, and two cartoonists over the lifetime of Bitcoin Weekly. I am even employed by somebody else. Some spectulative economy, eh?  

Did ya know the marketplace is buzzing with so much activities that moderators have to subdivide it into sell and buy? You said virtually the whole market is speculative, right? So, is that 95%, 85%, 75% or what? How would you measure it?

Let end it with a bitcoin bubble comic: http://bitcoinweekly.com/articles/comic-reaction-after-dramatic-rise-of-bitcoin-s-value

Part of me wants that yes. But I would've felt guilty had I not warned everyone and told them the way out of this Ponzi scheme. I feel better now, and still hoping to get away with as much cash as I could.

Really? I don't remember the last time my electricity bill skyrocketed 10 times in a month.

With the exception of people being forced to sell their coins for an emergency and the exception of "hit-and-run" transactions, most buyers buy now on hope that the coin's price will rise and most sellers on the expectation that it will drop. How otherwise can you justify a ten-fold increase in a single month? It wasn't a sudden surge in child porn anonymous sales I suppose. No, it was speculation. Virtually the whole bitcoin market is speculation.

Hmm, I wonder how we ended up with quite a few millionaires and billionares on this planet then. Weird. Perhaps they don't understand marginal utility either. Why don't you explain it to them DrSammy? Maybe they'll give up their hoarded money to charity.

I'm pretty tired of having to repeat this, but let's say it one more time: Yes they will sell at some point, but to another investor who'll keep the coins till the price is right before selling them again. That's a Ponzi scheme by definition.

That just shows you understood nothing of what I said. Stability doesn't come except with a supply proportionate to the demand. Otherwise you'll continue to see these roller coaster prices and/or perpetual deflation.

You didn't even need to see the historical price graph to figure the current design has issues? I see you're smarter than quite a few folks here

You join now on the hope that in a year or two you'll be a relatively "early adopter" and then grab a new "late adopter's" cash for your coins which would be even scarcer by then. In other words: Pyramid Scheme

The incentive is to get other fools to join the pyramid so they can fatten their wallet even more before running away with their money.

Another great definition for a Ponzi scheme. And totally true. I mean, the first few people purchasing the ticket are indeed taking more risk since the scheme isn't popularized just yet! The only problem with that, however, is that with bitcoin everyone is an "early adopter" at some point if he holds on to his coins long enough (as long as the system didn't collapse yet).

I explicitly outlined in the first post why that scenario would be much worse than the current one. You're hoping for the total removal of the electricity-cost anchor. That's a nightmare.

You forgot to add: "provided the coins' price doesn't drop in half before you get the chance to sell/reuse them".

Unless enough people realize the trick and escape the ship before it sinks. But if we live in a world of zombies then sure, it won't fail until it snatches enough victims so that it has no space for any new naive newcomers. We're talking hundreds of millions of potentially stupid (or speculative) people.

There is only $45 Million dollars worth of Bitcoins in the world.  If you think you are "late to the game" and also there's some "incredible wealth" out there, I think you are mistaken.

There are 11,000 people registered in this forum.  Probably most are like me, with just a little bit of Bitcoin.  Some registered users probably have none, but on the contrary some bitcoin holders probably aren't registered in the forum.

The first 960 participants registered prior to 11/1/2010.  Back then there were about 4 Million bitcoins issued (so a current value of about $28 M).  Even if 280 of them split the 28M, that's only an average of $100K each.  Not exactly "incredible wealth".  Or even if only one person has the vast majority of coins issued prior to 11/1/2010, that's only one person getting very rich ($28 Million).
 
I suspect that you could apply the 80/20 rule.  20% of the 11,000 own 80% of the current $45M wealth.  Splitting $36M over 2200 people won't exactly make them all rich.  That's $16K a person.   Maybe the top 20% own 80% of that wealth.  So 440 people split $28M.  That's 64K per person, for 440 people.  Still no incredible wealth.  And if you apply 80/20 one more time, you have 88 people splitting $22M.  That's 88 people getting $250K each.  Still not a lot of money, but respectable.   And 80/20 one more time gets you to 18 people splitting $18M.   So it made 18 millionaires. 

18 millionaires seems about right.  And that's if they didn't dump their bitcoin when the value quadrupled, the first time, or the second time, or the third time.


Besides, there is SOooooo much money and opportunity in other services, and there are soooo many more people that still need to be introduced to Bitcoin.  You are hardly late to the game!

The fact that so many people who already adopted the original bitcoin imagine mining a new but similar currency to be a waste of time might allow late-comers a window of opportunity each time they start yet another similar currency, because it seems possible that not a lot of huge mining corporations will immediately jump on their blockchain and mine a few million coins of it "just in case it does take off".

Thus simply start yet another one yourself, or jump on one of the ones the bitcoin-plutarch-cabal considers beneath their notice and large mining pools seem like they might actually be able to resist the temptation to throw lots of processor power at.

Maybe it will only take a few iterations to accomplish something or maybe it will have to get close to "one blockchain-based currency per person" but hey, is it really so much more wild a gamble than Satoshi's gamble of gosh knows how many programmer hours gallons of skullsweat etc?

There are more and more new blockchain-based currencies springing up all the time. If original bitcoin is not quite to your taste pick another or create one tailored to your precise tastes.

-MarkM-

"I am not going to adopt bitcoin because it unfairly reward early adopters...boohoo!"

10 months later.

"Damn! I should have invest in bitcoin!"

It doesn't stop people from continuing to sign up for and use Facebook.  Not only is Zuckerberg getting a lot more out of the deal than any of Facebook's users, but he's also way more of an asshole than any of Bitcoin's early adopters.

Give people compelling enough value and they will overlook fairness.  When the pie (or candy bar) is really small people will bicker forever over how to divide it.

and also like stated above if this works out well they'll be worth potentially thousands more.

a return in the tens of thousands of percents is pretty solid

jesus what is with all the bitching about being "late to the game?"

you snooze you lose, why does this argument keep coming up?

If you have a deflationary growth economy, everybody win, even if you're a latecomer. 

Hi Rlutz welcome to the forum.  

I wouldn't dismiss bitcoins as a currency because these perceived "flaws" just yet.  From what i see, its commonly mentioned that early adopters are rewarded disproportionately, its a pyramid scheme, etc, but as posters has noted already, these complaints completely discount the huge risk that early adopters are bearing.  If you speculate on something that fails, you lose, and its hard to tell if something will win or lose when its just getting off the ground.  The reward should be proportionate to the risk taken.  Starting a new currency like bitcoins is a huge risk in terms of success or failure, it's something most people would consider impossible and or/a waste of time.  I think its brilliant that early adopters have a chance of big rewards, it gives new comers great incentive to get involved with using or earning coins NOW - to catch the wave - so to speak. Removing this incentive means there is less interest in this new money, and less growth.

This may seem unstable now, but bitcoin is a tool for exchange, the more people have it, the better chance there will be to build a thriving economy with it, once speculation stops being so novel, and mining stops being so profitable, it will start being used the way it was intended, because there really is no better use.

This is not to say that getting in "late" is bad though.  Mining is not the only way to make coin, trading goods and services is an excellent way to earn your way into the economy. This will eventually be the primary method of earning coin.  The currency is young now, and the infrastructure is still building up to this, but it will eventually happen.

People tend to have this notion - if I do something where someone will gain more than me, then I wont do it - Even if that thing is a win win.  It's not a very constructive way to think about things, but I agree, it may dissuade a lot of people.  People also tend to be overly concerned with "fairness", unfortunately there is no objective way to measure this.  One may consider a free-market unfair because wealth and earning power are distributed unequally at any point in time, while another person may consider it the fairest, because each individual is free to take action to increase their wealth in any way they see fit.  One may consider bitcoins unfair because there are already people with so much more coin than them, others may consider it very fair because there is no one in charge of distributing new money, its just based on your participation in the network.  Unfortunately I don't think there can be a single solution to this problem, its personal.

What's the incentive for early adopters to promote and use bitcoin?

Right, but it still doesn't fix the gut reaction problem that even small children have. Split a candy bar with two kids 70/30, and the kid with the 30 isn't going to say, "Sweet, three tenths of a candy bar!" He's going to say, "Why did he get twice as much as me?!"

I think at a base level, we all have that concept of "fairness" in our decision making processes, and so long as that isn't rectified, I don't see BTC gaining a level of appeal necessary for its success.