Topic: The DEATH CROSS is in. How low will we go? - page 2. (Read 650 times)

During the last DEATH CROSS, the price of BTC was 250 USD (2015 summer). Sınce than 50 days EMA have never been under 200 days EMA. At the moment the cross is very very close. Maybe 2-3 more days if the fall continues like this.

I think it's pretty clear by now what this signal means.
LOL.

I'm not worried about the future. Bitcoin is a very good idea. She can't go anywhere. Now many potential investors are ready to buy bitcoin but they are afraid that bitcoin will never become a currency and will forever remain a speculative asset. Without bitcoin upgrades, we should not expect price increases. To increase prices, you need to forget about the legalization of bitcoin and Fiat.

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

Someone is nervous. This lion you can't kill so easily. Waiting for more panic and it will turn over again.
Up and down we go as always.

Well now you're just confusing things. I didn't say price follows fees. That would imply causation. I merely said there was a correlation between BTC price and transaction fees that is at odds with your theory.

You actually went further than mere correlation. You argued they have a causal relationship (higher fees causes lower price):


I don't believe BTC price and transaction fees have a causal relationship. I believe the correlation exists because higher demand = higher price, and higher demand = higher network activity. So price and average fees rise together, but one doesn't cause the other. They are both caused by spikes in demand to own/use BTC.

I think we guys shouldn't let mathematics to fool us. Bitcoin is returning to sane levels and consolidating. Its not losing confidence or trust. Every pther price drop gives us good entry point so I am waiting like 'hunter' to accumulate more bitcoin.

Who even cares? Let the death cross happen, and then we will be gladly buying more at the end of the day. This is just a way to panic some people in the market, but from the look of things and the news going on, I want to believe that we are going to have good times ahead of us from the bounce we already had. It is just plain stupid for anyone to be panicking right now when the market is about to set off for another bull run.

As much as I believe that the 50 and 200MA will not cross on the daily chart, one must also be ready to get careful in the market as things are presently. I am very optimistic though that we won't get to see any doom, but if that happens, I am so sure, the bear rally is going to be a huge one, and that is one that would set us way down lower. Let's just see how this would suffice in coming days.

My thought won’t be as negative that anyone does. It isn’t failing to recover, it does recovered in a slight and slowly phase that is different from than the much faster happened last year. Mtgox is already a done controversial news and happened to be used in FUDs to strongly crash the market. They have given an statement regarding this issue and that’s good enough.

No, I didn't. We're actually in agreement on this. Its just that you said price follows fee and I'm saying its the other way around.

You're now just arguing with me for argument's sake.

How does that change the "nature of Bitcoin?" A new version may affect the network's prospects for scale and adoption (fundamentals), the perception of which affects supply and demand. So what? Like all markets, everything boils down to supply and demand.


If transaction fees rise over time, why does it follow that TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin?

If stock brokers have flat fees, why does it follow that TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin?


Um, peaking only 10 days apart just proves my point.

• Both fees and price significantly trended upwards throughout 2017.
• After both fees and price peaked in December, they trended downwards throughout 2018.

You argued that fees had a negative correlation to price. Any data to support that? Because you're ignoring an obvious and established correlation which suggests the opposite.


You're saying that demand is limited by fees. I get it. The idea is not intuitively wrong if Bitcoin's only value is cheap fees (I disagree). Anyway, I was just pointing out that the evidence isn't there.


No it wasn't. It was built to remove trusted third parties from financial transactions.

Actually it is. Recently a new version of Core was released that contained some upgrades that helped scale bitcoin and reduce tx fees.


For most of its history it wasn't and its rise has been uniquely spectacular. However, when the price goes higher, the ave tx fee is bound to simultaneously increase, due to people shelling out more BTC to speed through a transaction. Trading stocks and bonds and commodities doesn't work this way. Most trade brokers offer a flat trading fee -- it doesn't change with the price of the security being traded.


Okay so I did what you asked. BTC reached its all-time high on 12-10-17. The all-time high for fees was on 12-20. So what was your point again?

Anybody can read anything however they want to and make a compelling argument for their prediction. I believe bitcoin's upward potential is limited by an increasing non-competitiveness in transaction fees, which means its intrinsic value morphs according to its price, or adjustments made to the Core client.

That's why its different from anything that's ever been traded before: first of all, unlike most things that are traded, it was built to be traded. It just so happens that because of the way it works, as it becomes more popular and the system gets strained, people have to pay more $$ to rush their transaction into the next block. This causes it to lose some of its innate value as a currency. That's what its for. It's not meant for speculation. Then again, most things that are traded aren't.

"Its essence is digital?" If I say the essence of gold is metal, does that tell you something about how the gold market moves? I don't think so. What does it have to do with anything? The nature of Bitcoin is not changing all the time. It's rather society's opinion towards it that changes. This boils down to markets.

It's very simple: Bitcoin is bought and sold like anything else. The market is necessarily determined by supply and demand, like any other market. Why would it be immune to market dynamics, the understanding of which underpins TA?


Take a chart of median/average transaction fees paid over time. Then lay the chart over a Bitcoin price chart for the same period.

Seems like the opposite is true. As fees rise, so does Bitcoin's price.

Ah, finally somebody who gets it.

As others began to explain, BTC is not beholden to the trader psychology theories that underpin classical technical analysis. That's because its not a stock or a commodity -- its essence is digital and its nature is changing all the time.

BTC has a price ceiling which is determined by its average transaction fee. If the ave tx fee goes too high, BTC loses its intrinsic value as a currency and is no longer competitive. That doesn't happen with commodities. The amount it costs to trade gold is always flat regardless of its price or current popularity.

It's wrong no more often in Bitcoin than other markets, especially now that we have a more liquid market. The problem is that most people (especially novices and laypeople) assume that TA is predictive. It is not, at least not outside the scope of generalized probability.

A chart setup will always fail a significant amount of the time. Trading successfully is about quickly cutting the losses from those failures while maximizing the gains (letting your winners run, rolling stops up).


That's probably not true. "Golden crosses" and "death crosses" are long term lagging indicators. Nobody who trades based on them would have called a top at $7,500.

Maybe what you say is true of permabears, but then your bone to pick is with permabears, not TA.


I don't like to think of it as predictive. It's a lagging observation of cyclical trends. A death cross after long term bullish trending just means that price is no longer recovering during bearish/corrective cycles as before. That can indicate a marked change to the trend. It doesn't necessarily mean doom, but it's one indicator that an uptrend is no longer intact.

No such thing as better than Bitcoin, so no, Bitcoin is not outdated, and no, none of these "4th generation crypto currencies" (whatever this shit means) offer anything worth anyone's time. I guess you are stupid enough to have fallen for the IOTA scam and any other of these DAG, DPoS or whatever other scams which pretend to be viable replacements for pure PoW. This explains everything. Well, what can I say? other than sorry for your loss.

Yes, there is no bad news, the atmosphere is gradually changing and I do not see how this would really be the case. Before we even see the 50 and 200MA crossing, we should have seen a huge bounce already in the market with volume kicking in. I do not know, but at least I expect the bulls to be somewhere around the corner, ready to do something.

Moreover, OP kind of guys all should stop all this bullshit with the death cross, it may be looming but does not mean it would happen. We are bouncing and volume can kick in, and at least let it cross first before spreading some unnecessary panic. I know this would not be good because that would cause some panic dump in the market but, I feel we have gotten past this stage already once we show sign of recovery and strength.

Bitcoin is well above $6k which was the lowest of the low. So it has recovered, it has not failed to recover as you have suggested.

I agree, we may be seeing $6k soon but that's going to be temporary. The price should again recover to at least $8-9k if the price does hit $6k, but for now, I think it's just a short correction that will stop as soon as the $9.3k resistance is broken.

2018 was never expected to be bullish, anyways.

I mean what else do you expect coming off a year where BTC's price grew 2000%. Do you expect the exact same thing to happen? Come on, obviously there's got to be some profit takers and corrections to consolidate the price to a more reasonable level. And that's exactly what's happening right now. Nothing surprising. But the process is definitely sped up via all the new regulations coming out that is scaring the crap out of traders.

Very true and the fact that it happened in 2014/2015 does not mean we will end up seeing the same thing happening this time around. The market is not looking bad presently and I would not be surprised to see it breaking some resistances in the coming days.

Moreover, since we had the bounce from the $7k region, it already gave some hope and things are changing fundamentally towards the positive, so we may just see these MAs (50 and 200) never meeting.

Hahaha! I was about to make the same post! OK EVERYONE! It is time to start buying this dip. Kwukduck, who is hiding in the not so obvious username "cryptokwuk", has given us the signal of doing the opposite of what he predicts.

Thank you for this, Kwuk. It made my decision to buy this dip easier.


"Old" but still ahead of everyone in security and reliability. Plus look! The market also prefers Bitcoin over the rest.

If you want "P2P cash", go use an altcoin like Bitcoin Cash or Dogecoin. No one is stopping you.