Topic: The Dichotomy Of a Bubble - Why Bitcoin Will Endure - page 2. (Read 17449 times)
Satoshi was sent from the future?
I would imagine that a singularity such as what Kurzweil describes would require a new monetary system to exponentially increase the efficiency of trade - by an order of magnitude at least. Bitcoin surely satisfies that criteria.
Hey... maybe Satoshi really was an AI and it created Bitcoin to start the singularity. Like the match in the kindling?! Oh gosh!!
Hey... maybe Satoshi really was an AI and it created Bitcoin to start the singularity. Like the match in the kindling?! Oh gosh!!
if you want to get Kurzweil to offer an opinion, ask him about the potential of the network - forget about Bitcoin: he'll find them on the way.
it's the network that's more up his alley. and it would - rightfully - fascinate him.
vladimir claims (probably correctly) that Bitcoin is a singularity. he speaks of financial/economic singularities when he does.
but there are other kinds of singularity...
it's the network that's more up his alley. and it would - rightfully - fascinate him.
vladimir claims (probably correctly) that Bitcoin is a singularity. he speaks of financial/economic singularities when he does.
but there are other kinds of singularity...
Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.
Ray Kurzweil comes up with impressive-sounding ideas about the future that turn out to be wildly optimistic. Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.
Yeah how do we get HIM to check out this Bitcoin thing?! Hopefully he'd see how it will bring about the singularity faster, be making all commerce more efficient. Rumor is he takes like a billion vitamins a day so he has a chance of living until the singularity, but he'd be better served by advocating true free market money.
Ask him if bitcoins are potentially like reserved parking spaces for the transition. Or will everybody get saved? I didn't get to finish the movie.
I love people who look at linear graph and call it a bubble because they see an elbow in the curve.
Hey Adam, the only linear graph on this page is an XKCD comic. And as I understand it, a large fraction of marriages do pop!
Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.
Yeah how do we get HIM to check out this Bitcoin thing?! Hopefully he'd see how it will bring about the singularity faster, be making all commerce more efficient. Rumor is he takes like a billion vitamins a day so he has a chance of living until the singularity, but he'd be better served by advocating true free market money.
I love people who look at linear graph and call it a bubble because they see an elbow in the curve.
Most growth curves over the long run ( Dow, IBM, other ) will look like this unless you plot the log scale.
Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.
Adam
Most growth curves over the long run ( Dow, IBM, other ) will look like this unless you plot the log scale.
Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.
Adam
I recommend a work by a bubble-expert: BUBBLES AND HOW TO SURVIVE THEM by JOHN P. CALVERLEY.
According to his checklist, I would rate Bitcoin about 6/9. You can recognize many of the mantras of the Bitcoin community in his write-up.
RAPIDLY RISING PRICES
OVERVALUATION
ECONOMIC UPSWING
NEW ELEMENT
PARADIGM SHIFT
NEW INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS
POPULAR AND MEDIA INTEREST
MAJOR RISE IN LENDING
STRONG EXCHANGE RATE
According to his checklist, I would rate Bitcoin about 6/9. You can recognize many of the mantras of the Bitcoin community in his write-up.
RAPIDLY RISING PRICES
OVERVALUATION
ECONOMIC UPSWING
NEW ELEMENT
PARADIGM SHIFT
NEW INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS
POPULAR AND MEDIA INTEREST
MAJOR RISE IN LENDING
STRONG EXCHANGE RATE
The 6/9 are strong and the other 3/9 are questionable or couldn't reasonably apply to bitcoin. None the less, I see little difference between recent exchange patterns and the plateaus of December and March, except that the volume of trade (in dollars) has grown enormously. Granted the May build-up was steeper and longer than earlier, much of which can rightly be called a bubble, but the following pattern has been smooth and typical. Unlike the tech, housing, and perhaps gold bubbles, people may never have heard of bitcoin a month before buying a sample. The 9 June bubble popped and I believe what we are seeing now is normal mixed with a little shaken confidence after the Mt. Gox exploit. The interest (shown by forum membership growth) seems legitimate. Quick-rich speculation have had weeks to sell after seemingly catastrophic events if they so desired. Now with no new blood, perhaps we are seeing the effect of 30% (2% monthly) monetary inflation.
Quote
Currently betting on dead cat bounces for fun :p
Did you catch that one a few minutes ago off of $11?Good luck - and fast fingers.
Did alright, the cat was kind to me and the charts gave the hints they needed to
Heh....Trading...the art of swinging a cat as high as it can go, taking bets on the way up how high it will reach, taking bets again on the way down how fast it will fall, then betting on how much it will bounce.....before prodding it back to life with a stick before starting the whole thing all over again!
Schroedinger's cat had it easy!
Quote
Currently betting on dead cat bounces for fun :p
Did you catch that one a few minutes ago off of $11?Good luck - and fast fingers.
Wait. I thought wives were a liability.
Quote
That is a somewhat extreme confidence in charting a low volume traded commodity/unit/currency/whatever. If you're able to chart as well as your analysis shows, then you should also be able to comment on the noise, volatility, low volumes and other factors.
My interpretation of charts is mostly to explain what is happening - or better what has recently happened. Chart reading has limited predictive power for traders. The channel I am now fascinated with held again at its upper trend line - $12.56 - and prices in the last few minutes have dipped to $12.03. [update] $11.19
Who knows when the channel will have a breakout - at least for a pause. I have little to offer regarding noise, volatility, low volumes and other factors. Except that relatively low volumes and tranquil trading activity may be indications of a bottom - when those features occur.
Hehe, fair enough
I've been more keeping an eye to the order book in the current window as a general feel for supply and demand, not too sure what to make of the charts at the moment, but I'll be more at ease when we finally start to see a sideways/upward trend over a few days.
Currently betting on dead cat bounces for fun :p
That cartoon is useless and disingenuous. Husbands aren't a commodity. Bitcoins are.
If wives can be a commodity, why not husbands?
...
...I believe that there is in fact a bitcoin bubble in the process of deflating...
...I believe that there is in fact a bitcoin bubble in the process of deflating...
Bubbles don't deflate, they burst
Quote
That is a somewhat extreme confidence in charting a low volume traded commodity/unit/currency/whatever. If you're able to chart as well as your analysis shows, then you should also be able to comment on the noise, volatility, low volumes and other factors.
My interpretation of charts is mostly to explain what is happening - or better what has recently happened. Chart reading has limited predictive power for traders. The channel I am now fascinated with held again at its upper trend line - $12.56 - and prices in the last few minutes have dipped to $12.03. [update] $11.19
Who knows when the channel will have a breakout - at least for a pause. I have little to offer regarding noise, volatility, low volumes and other factors. Except that relatively low volumes and tranquil trading activity may be indications of a bottom - when those features occur.
That cartoon is useless and disingenuous. Husbands aren't a commodity. Bitcoins are.
Insightful analysis!
Here we are in early July, 2011 and the end of August is just 8 or so weeks away. At the time of this posting, Mt Gox shows a channel-bound decline of $0.11 per hour over the past 27 hours. At this rate of decline, the $1 price would be reached in only 4.3 days.
In contrast to your own opinion, I believe that there is in fact a bitcoin bubble in the process of deflating. The rate of decline on Mt Gox is currently within your model's constraints to complete before the end of August.
That is a somewhat extreme confidence in charting a low volume traded commodity/unit/currency/whatever. If you're able to chart as well as your analysis shows, then you should also be able to comment on the noise, volatility, low volumes and other factors.
Thanks for the responses.
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
Insightful analysis!
Here we are in early July, 2011 and the end of August is just 8 or so weeks away. At the time of this posting, Mt Gox shows a channel-bound decline of $0.11 per hour over the past 27 hours. At this rate of decline, the $1 price would be reached in only 4.3 days.
In contrast to your own opinion, I believe that there is in fact a bitcoin bubble in the process of deflating. The rate of decline on Mt Gox is currently within your model's constraints to complete before the end of August.
That is a somewhat extreme confidence in charting a low volume traded commodity/unit/currency/whatever. If you're able to chart as well as your analysis shows, then you should also be able to comment on the noise, volatility, low volumes and other factors.
Thanks for the responses.
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
Insightful analysis!
Here we are in early July, 2011 and the end of August is just 8 or so weeks away. At the time of this posting, Mt Gox shows a channel-bound decline of $0.11 per hour over the past 27 hours. At this rate of decline, the $1 price would be reached in only 4.3 days.
In contrast to your own opinion, I believe that there is in fact a bitcoin bubble in the process of deflating. The rate of decline on Mt Gox is currently within your model's constraints to complete before the end of August.
That is a somewhat extreme confidence in charting a low volume traded commodity/unit/currency/whatever. If you're able to chart as well as your analysis shows, then you should also be able to comment on the noise, volatility, low volumes and other factors.
Thanks for the responses.
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
Insightful analysis!
Here we are in early July, 2011 and the end of August is just 8 or so weeks away. At the time of this posting, Mt Gox shows a channel-bound decline of $0.11 per hour over the past 27 hours. At this rate of decline, the $1 price would be reached in only 4.3 days.
In contrast to your own opinion, I believe that there is in fact a bitcoin bubble in the process of deflating. The rate of decline on Mt Gox is currently within your model's constraints to complete before the end of August.
Thanks for the responses.
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.
We shall see...
Jump to: