Topic: The Ethereum killer storyline part 2 might be beginning - page 2. (Read 1544 times)

Probably at least we'll see again an increase of marketing tactics of "Ethereum killers" trying to sell themselves as "the best technology". But the past has shown that not always the best technology wins. In the crypto sector, there are interesting projects technologically which do not get much attention of the market, like Nomic (a Bitcoin L2).

Technology will be somewhat important but not really as crucial as most think. As I wrote in the last post, Ethereum killers have similar consensus algorithms, and thus they tend to work in a very similar fashion. Of course there's the issue we've already discussed: high-throughput "monolithic" L1 (SOL) vs. L2-based "modular" platform (Ethereum, partly also XRP which is implementing smart contracts on a sidechain). And with the emergence of Solana and now also Sui also different smart contract languages are competing against each other, while previously everybody tried to be compatible to EVM/Solidity.

What I guess is also that some of the Ethereum projects will fall behind again after a market shakeout eventually. There will be perhaps 4 to 8 leaders which can grow further, and the others will tend to stagnate. This is due to the fact that human attention is limited, and thus too many "brands" will also clutter the space. This doesn't mean that the smaller projects can't be successful, only that even in a bullish market for smart contracts, and despite of the "levelling out" I described, some platforms will have more success than others, there won't be 10 or more platforms with a similar marketcap.

Also much depends if a "killer app" for smart contracts can be found which is relevant for everyday people and not only for traders. If this happens, then I think the market will be much larger, and more blockchains will be successful.

@d5000. I very much agree and I have also argued that the people in the cryptospace will witness new inflows of funding from venture capitalists that will be invested in this new ICO season. This will also reduce netflows being invested in memecoins and go to the new ICOs.

On ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX and TRON, TONcoin and SUI being close in market capitalization, will it not also make technology matter? Will this be the season in this bull market where the people will try to find better investments in what appears to be better technology?

I guess it has to do with the expectation that regulation for tokens will be less restrictive. All those coins are primarily token/DeFi platforms. So we'll probably see a wave of new ICOs and new DeFi stuff, often of dubious nature, from 2025 on. Of course with this expectation of the market becoming bigger, attention might be switching from the more established ETH and SOL to their slightly smaller compatitors.

It is not unlikely that in the end, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX and TRON, perhaps also TONcoin and SUI, will become closer regarding market cap, they're competing mainly via transaction fees to create an ecosystem. But as fees depend also on usage, the coin with most usage will also in the mid-term see the highest fees. That's the chance of the other "Ethereum killers". As all coins of this group are basically PoS coins with BFT-style algorithms, they can adopt innovations from other chains.

It's of course also possible that SOL can reaffirm its leadership as "No. 2" behind Ethereum in this sector, and the other coins of this group falling behind again. This depends also on who wins the competition for the attention economy, and there SOL has currently an advantage.

In the case of Ripple, obviously the main driver is that Gensler resigned, and that this would stop the SEC legal action against them. In addition there's a XRP ETF filing, and it has better chances to be approved under Trump than under Biden/Gensler. Add to that the rumours about XRP folks as Trump advisers I already mentioned.

@d5000. What would you speculate might be the real causes of these pumps on these cryptocoins that were created and issued before 2020? Is this their past pump before they become dead fossils or is there a development that the promises that they have made might presently become real?

Is the American government speculated to start giving favorable regulatory conditions for Ripple, Cardano and Avalanche under the Donald Trump's administration?

Let's see how the season(s) is/are going. Showing the price evolution of the top "Ethereum killers " in ETH (violet). We see that almost all have grown versus ETH, but some did more so than others.

In addition, let's see the percentage of the ETH market cap of each "killer" coin (ETH has currently 439 billion.)

ADA


Made a nice jump, but if we look at the price earlier in 2024 and earlier (in 2021, it was at $3), the jump only made it recover from a long bearish phase.
Market cap: 46 billion (10% of ETH's)

AVAX


Has grown in the last weeks, but proportionally is one of the weakest "Ethereum killers" in 2024.
Market cap: 21 billion (5% of ETH's)

SOL


Registered a new ATH, but then fell again a bit.
Market cap: 108 billion (25% of ETH's)

Tron

Had its heyday in the mid-year sideways market and didn't profit that much from the November pump.
Market cap: 19 billion (<5% of ETH's)

XRP

And we have a winner. Made a straight x5, probably fueled also by rumours that the XRP team could advise Trump. But is that pump sustainable? Looks almost like a memecoin ...
XRP is currently also implementing smart contracts so it may indeed be now considered an "Ethereum killer".
Market cap: 155 billion (35% of ETH's).

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@Zanab247. It appears that presently you have the correct argument. It also appears that no one has noticed that Ripple XRP has over taken Solana in market capitalization heheheheh. The people who have noticed are very much shocked on this comedy occurrence. However, if this is a shocking comedy occurrence for the Solana community, I reckon wait if Ethereum will pump higher than Bitcoin's market capitalization hehehehehe.

If you take a good look at Sola movement in this season and ETH movement in this season, you will agree with me that Sola don't have the capacity to over take ETH soon because ETH price has created a long gap that will make Sola not to near 2 or 3 position among other cryptocurrencies. The community still see ETH as the king among altcoins in the market because it move along side with BTC, which is the reason many people still like to hodl ETH base on the good result they found in ETH few months ago which is very attractive in the community.

I'm very sure that Sola will going to do well in the future, but it will not going to over take the position of ETH in the general market because there are still solid team behind ETH, which will be very hard for Sola to pump higher above ETH.

@conquest99999. I understand the argument and it appears that it will only be witnessed if Solana is really the Ethereum killer in a bear market heheheheh. In this bull market, it is very head shaking because Ripple is showing that it might be the Solana killer hehehehehehe. No one has predicted this. There are also memecoins pumping in Ripple.

In any case, I have a new prediction. We might have a season 3 for the Solana is the Ethereum killer storyline hehe.

Solana is going good but not that good. Mainly it's going good because of all the memecoins that are pumping right now. But because I believe they will pump for a small amount of time, solana may even loose it's popularity long term, thus it will never reach ethereum's market cap.

I shake my head on your argument because what you are telling us is very much not true. Are you using the bridges that have been developed in the bear market since 2022? There are also other bridges that have been developed before the bear market occurred. Transferring tokens and using bridges for crosschain swaps is presently much easier. You can transfer ETH to SOL, ETH to layer2 and it will not take more than 1 minutes for the transfer process, others are instant.

..And mostly, it's just a buzz to get the funds flowing, unfortunately. These trends which just change each other like a rainbow after the storm.
However, hey - aren't we already used to it?   

Honestly, if there is an ETF for it, we could actually see some bigger increases with a doubt, we just need a few billion dollars invested that's it. Think about it, we are talking about 295 billion marketcap ETH here, and we are talking about just mere 50% of it as well, so that would be 147.5 billion dollars, nothing all that high.

So there isn't really a big ask here, if price of SOL goes twice higher, then it goes beyond that level, it is not really that impossible for SOL to increase higher than ETH increases, there is more room for growth for SOL at the moment, it requires a lot more money for ETH. If the article said SOL will go higher than ETH, then I would say they are talking nonesense without a doubt, but reaching just 50% doesn't really feel that bad.

I guess people don't want to move away to another chain with an added learning curve. Switching from ETH to a L2 chain based on rollups is not as easy as it sounds. It's why most people prefer high-performance and cost-efficient chains such as Solana and BSC/BNB. If ETH developers focus on scaling the L1 blockchain, I'm sure adoption will increase tenfold.

Hopefully, your prediction comes true. But be aware that AI-based tokens are taking the world by storm. It might become the hottest trend besides Gamefi, "De-Fi", NFTs, and whatnot. Who knows how ETH will perform in the future?

The Ethereum holders who argue that Blackrock CEO and the new mayor of Bitcoin Larry Fink supports Ethereum and it has an ETF already, it appears that there is also an argument that there are institutional investors that are also filing their own ETF for Solana. It is beginning to appear that the only positive argument for Ethereum is the ETF inflows which has not arrived after the approval. It will be very headshaking for them if the approval for the Solana ETF will have very big inflows on SOL and pump this hehehe.



new SOL vehicle to would-be institutional investors.

Canary Capital Group’s Wednesday filing for a spot SOL ETF with the SEC comes a few months after VanEck kicked off the process with a filing of its own.

The fresh filing is a cause for celebration, certainly — especially if you’re of the opinion/hope that next week’s election will usher in a far less, shall we say, Gensler-ish take on US securities oversight. Sitting SEC commissioners on the Republican side are of the view that investors, not regulators, should judge the merits of such products, and in the event that Donald Trump prevails, Chair Gary Gensler may find himself out of a job sooner than later.

Read in full https://blockworks.co/news/canary-capital-sol-etf-filing

I reckon answer on why rollup tokens are not very much valued by the community might be because this does not give the holders a share of the revenue from fees collected by the rollup. If they can give some yield to the holders for staking, we can be quite certain much of these DeFi farmers will certainly buy and stake.

This might continue on 2025 and the community will continue to ignore this. I predict the return of gamefi and play to earn projects with better tokenomics.



By some measures, Ethereum’s bet on its “rollup-centric” future has gone too well: Rollups now process more transactions than Ethereum itself and have been called parasites that depress the price of its cryptocurrency.

So, why doesn’t anyone want their tokens?

Tokens for major rollups, also known as layer 2 blockchains, or L2s, have had a miserable year: Arbitrum is down 66% since January 1; Optimism has fallen 56% in that span; Starknet is down a whopping 84%; and ZkSync is off 55%. Mantle has been the least worst off, falling a modest 10%.

At the same time, crypto has boomed.

Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/can-the-rollup-token-market-break-its-2024-slump/

BTW Vitalik announced that Ethereum will do the purge to overcome the Ethereum data liberation, however Ethereum requires efficiency there and then he will simplify the Ethereum protocol to make it easier to navigate Ethereum networks and developers will be more easy to avoid bugs in the tissue.
We do not know what is the percentage of the success of this Purge Tea, but I strongly support Ethereum to be more friendly and dispose of outdated complexities that do not need to be used again in the Ethereum network.

See? More projects moving away from ETH. Partly because of the main chain's limited transaction capacity. At least, Unichain will be a L2 network built on top of the ETH blockchain. This shouldn't affect ETH's market dominance. After all, L2s depend on ETH to survive. It would've been a problem if Unichain was a separate chain.

Let's face it. Around 90% of smart contract chains are based on the EVM. Propietary chains such as Solana and Cardano are the minority. It's no wonder why ETH is still the "King". I'd expect Vitalik and team to scale the main ETH blockchain for greater benefits in the long run. High fees and slow confirmation times will no longer be an issue to ETH users. Just be patient to see good results in the long run. In my eyes, ETH will be the #2 crypto in market cap forever. "Ethereum Killer"? Says who?

Yes, these are the arguments that folks that think ETH is going to die due to parasitic nature of Layer-2s right now on Ethereum. Almost all L2s not just base does that. My thesis is that Base will never airdrop to its users due to the fact that Coinbase itself is in the US and they're on the SEC watch list. Iirc, Coinbase was even sued by SEC this year. I think it's a similar story with Linea being that it's a product of consensys.

It's time to face the reality that L2s might just siphon liquidity from Ethereum and remit very little value back and that's going to be the reality for a long time.

@nelson4lov. Are you following the conversation of the thread? You should read it from the beginning hehehehe. I am talking about the value gathering premium of ETH because this is a proof of stake blockchain. Base layer 2 has made millions in fees, however, this paid the Ethereum blockchain only in thousands. I speculate that if Coinbase will issue a token for their layer 2, they might give this millions in value gathering premium to the stakers of the token of their layer 2. The token holders will certainly dump some or much of the ETH they earn from staking.

Also, there is the argument on netflows in Solana and Ethereum. You should read this.