Topic: The fall from 65k to $30k was the best thing to ever happen to Bitcoin - page 3. (Read 1233 times)

Agreed with this. Whenever the price goes down a little, we find the forums flooded with posts such as this one.


2012 was the only instance when I "purchased" Bitcoin. I am still holding a large share of these original coins. But I earned a lot more BTC in 2013-15 through various means. I lost around 50% to various scams and the other 50% I converted to fiat. So it can be said that I am not a typical investor. Most of my coins were not purchased, but earned. But the coins that I have in my wallet right now are from the 2012 investment.

This is my stand mate everytime there is a huge dumping from the bitcoin price because the opportunity to add for my coins and folio.

But this time i am sudden because i already used all my funds and there are nothing left to buy more so for me this is not a Best thing since i did not even dare to sell first and then re buy.

I don't have the means to know which institutions but I am sure that they probably did what I just said, just a little putting your feet on their shoes and you will probably arrive at the same conclusion and you have said it in your post that they might have a knowledge about the incoming conrrection.

I guess that I was attempting to give some benefit of the doubt to a largely dweeb assessment that was saying merely that we are closer to $0 than $100k - which we already know in bitcoin's history that it has had a large number of doublings, triplings and even 10x-enings...

So, even if it  is possible that we never reach $100k, the comment about being closer to $0 seems to be quite detached from reality and maybe one coming from a nocoiner/bitcoin naysayer.. or some other variant of nonsense spreader.


I was throwing all kinds of numbers out there in terms of attempting to show various ways to get to $1million, including a scenario of getting there overnight... So, surely if you are investing more, such as investing greater than $100k or investing $750k, then it is going to be easier to reach $1million.



I was not necessarily saying for myself specifically, but moreso asserting for a kind of average Joe Blow, even in an average western world city, $1million would be a very good target to begin to consider that he could largely support himself with $3,333 per month passive income.  Of course, there are a lot of expenses that people have, and surely the more complicated his/her life than the more difficult it would be to get $3,333 per month (or $1million in capital to work for you).

So, $1million was not really mine specifically - even though I thought that it was a good place to start to consider and surely talking about the matter in terms of a $1million target would be something that people would be able to relate to and to consider if they would be able to get by for less than that or if they needed more.  I surely had heard responses from people saying that they were humble and could get by on $500k, and others proclaiming that they needed $6million to $10million as their bare entry level for that.  Some of those higher numbers do seem a bit ridiculous for me, in terms of both considering entry level entry into fuck you status.. and also, a kind of failure/refusal to recognize the power of having passive income of even $3,333 per month (the $1million point).... I am not denying that people could create those higher levels as their personal considerations for entry into "fuck you" status because maybe they have already considered that they are already spending at those levels, they are considering maintaining medical insurance, they are wanting to live in a more expensive area (by choice rather than a job causing such an obligation) and/or they are thinking about the dollar losing its value so they need more cushion for their income level.

Personally, I believe that the error of the real high entry level thinkers is that they are mixing up entry level fuck you status with some form of richie status or rich as fuck status, even though - there are degrees to those higher levels of rich too and many of us are not going to agree what thresholds are needed to enter into those various statuses... but I did concede to move my consideration of an entry level into fuck you status from $1million to $2million.


Well one thing is investing early, and another thing is considering your thereafter plan.  Yeah, $150 to start out is NOT a very BIG amount to invest.  My first purchase was $1,500 in November 2013 to get 1.248BTC.  Of course, I continued to invest because I created an investment plan for 6 months, and then I extended another 6 months and mostly I reached my BTC accumulation target levels in late 2014 - so I graduated a bit into more of a maintenance stage which still involved some BTC accumulation.. and surely my BTC  maintenance and even some of my periodic liquidations (scraping of small portions) has been tweaked over the years in a variety of ways in an attempt to keep my BTC holdings in a position of comfort for me and my situation.

BTC is such a seemingly crazy investment, that I find it difficult to conceive of someone NOT really actively continuing to invest in various ways through a 8-9 year period, or to be taking other measures to manage their BTC investment - and surely one of the questions of this thread is what to do when the BTC price drops by around 53% from, and surely the questions raised for longer term BTC holders is going to be quite different than someone who is newer into the BTC space and still figuring out his/her BTC investment strategy (or maybe even considering BTC as a gamble or not even knowing why they are in BTC - and a 53% price drop can cause them to reconsider their involvement in BTC).

By the way, bryant.. if you bought 15 BTC in 2012 for $150 and you have not bought any BTC since then, I would consider you a likely NOT very active BTC investor - or maybe a rare duck.  I know that there are some folks out there in the real world who have bought some BTC in early days (maybe even more than one session of buying) and then have not really bought more or actively engaged.. just considered their investment as a kind of "cold storage."  I have hard times relating to that kind of investor, especially when it comes to BTC, even though I know that they exist in the real world.




For sure, bitcoin has been a very powerful long-term value for HODL, so I kind of expect that the returns are going to slope off with the passage of time.  So for example from your approximate buy price to the 2013 peak (of $1,163) there was about a 116x price appreciation.. And if we look at the bouncing off point of the 2017 price peak from 2015, there was a price appreciation of about 78x from $250 to $19,666.  Currently, our $64,895 has had about a 16.5x price appreciation, if we use March 2019 price of $4,200 as our round about spring board.    

So there seems to be decent evidence that the price appreciation peaks are getting smaller, but I am NOT even proclaiming that those past levels of BTC price appreciation are necessary in order for BTC to serve as a very good and solid long term investment and an ongoing consideration to continue to hold a decent amount of value in BTC, even if the price appreciations might become way less.

For sure you know, bryant, that the 4-year minimum timeframe for holding has to do with a historical assertion that BTC has so far never been priced below any previous 4-year price - yet I am not even suggesting that it will always be greater in price 4 years later, but still 4 years does seem to be a great starting point for considering any investment made into BTC, even though each person will also retain full discretion to pull out of BTC at any time, but still coming into BTC and considering any further purchases of BTC having at minimum a 4-year hold time is likely a good long-term investing mindset.  By the way, before I got into BTC I had quite more than 25 years of investing under my belt, so I can appreciate that it takes a whole hell of a long time to grow an investment portfolio from scratch.. so longer timelines does really seem to help for capital to compound upon itself...  

There can be a kind of doubling and doubling and doubling, but if the amount in the fund is only $200, then doubling is not going to seem to be very much money.. but once the amount is $400,000 or even greater, then doubling can seem to add up a lot.. so for example, if someone had been investing in bitcoin for a year prior to the 2017 price run up and then got up to 10 BTC, the price run from $1k in the beginning of the year ($10k portfolio) to $19,666 ($196,666) is going to feel like a pretty decent price appreciation.... So when the BTC price drops during 2018 and bounces around mostly between $5k and $11k during most of 2019 and even most of 2020, there could have been opportunities to acquire another 10 coins or so.  Therefore, when the price ended up going from $10k to $65k, the 20 coins may have gone from $200k to $1.3 million.... so there is a kind of compounding going on, but if someone is still buying coins, then they likely have to just let any of those new coins at least build for 4 years.

And sure, if your budget has been a lot more modest than the guy who had been able to acquire 10 BTC for the 2017 BTC price run and then another 10 BTC during the crash, maybe you made a lot of mistakes along the way, and you were only able to acquire 1 BTC in 2016/2017 and then you were ONLY able to acquire another 1 BTC in 2018 - 2020... then in that case you only got up to 2 BTC, so your price run in 2017 ONLY went up to $20k and in 2021 it only went up to $130,000.  Each of us has to start somewhere, and we just build what we got, and maybe you can attempt to learn from all of these matters and if you are still buying more and more BTC, then this particular dip down to $30k should be considered as a potential opportunity to continue to stack and maybe get more BTC.  And, maybe your feeling that you ONLY have 2 BTC is very small, but there are all kinds of people who have not even set up BTC accounts yet, and they are struggling to get their first 0.21BTC, while you are working on getting your 3rd BTC... and maybe it will take you 4 years to go from 2 BTC to 3BTC, so there are all kinds of levels of BTC accumulation and abilities to budget for sure, and it does seem to take a long time to build up any kind of investment portfolio, whether we are referring to BTC or otherwise other combinations that might be decided (not talking about shitcoins, here.. but some people might include them in their overall portfolio).  

Hmm.. yeah.. have to agree.. I didn't calculated it properly. You are right in saying that a 100% spike would take us to $72K, and a 100% drop would take us to $0. Although practically it is impossible for Bitcoin to drop to such low levels, I understand that theoretically it makes sense.

And regarding the "millionaire" question.. once again I can't deny your claim. But how many of the users will able to invest >$100,000 in Bitcoin? You are saying that in 2013, you considered $1 million as your minimum entry level. I made my first investment one year before that. Back in 2012 I got 15 BTC for around $150. Well.. that was my minimum entry level. 

And I agree with your last point, regarding the 4-year minimum period for holding. I am holding coins from 2012 onwards, and the returns that I received in the long run validates it.

From how OP has explained I do agree that there is some good coming from the crash, and the benefits outweigh the bad effects of it.

Of course things like investors confidence will be hurt but like people say one man's treasure is another man's trash **should be the other way round  ** but you get my point...you could choose to dump the coins but others are on the side line waiting to buy the dip.

And the crash got free marketing and have others an opportunity to enter the market.

You will be quite lucky if you ever can buy BTC in the $20ks ever again.. so hopefully you are not ONLY planning for down, especially all the way down to $10k-ish.

We have a lot of examples in BTC history where no coiners and fence sitters were waiting for lower prices that did not happen.... those instances are probably way too numerous to list (or waste time listing them). 

Moral of the story, is that you should be prepared for either direction.. so if the BTC price goes shooting up to $65k and beyond, you are not going to be whining because you could have bought another .5BTC at $36k, but you were too fucking busy waiting for $12k so that you could get 1.5BTC.. but you end up with 0BTC and you have to buy .25BTC at $72k after it drops from $300k back down to $72k.. and you were sitting with no coins the whole time because you failed and refused to prepare for UP.

Probably not everyone of us here may felt the same thing as what OPs felt about the recent market crash. I felt that OP's is full of positivity that he see the goodness or see the improvements to the system of usage of bitcoin in the society today rather than using the crashed as an excuse to panic selling or what else.
Everyone felt that this sudden bearish season really one of the biggest losses they have, but we already know that a bearish season is one of the season of bitcoin right. I mean we only have two season in crypto which is the bullish and the bearish.
But in my case I am waiting for the bearish season of bitcoin so I can bag more btc, this season is a chance for me to grab but I am also waiting for a $10k of bitcoin if possible which I guess is possible but I don't know when it will going to happen.

I understand how some investors felt saddened about the current dip because all their investments seem to fall but we should not lost faith in bitcoin. Bearish season is part of bitcoin and we will not be profitable unless we learn to survive from this dip.

Honestly, i see this dropdown a big opportunity to buy and store more bitcoin in my portfolio but it would make me create more opportunities if the price will be atleast $10k so others will not think it still quite expensive. This bearish moment is a good time to enter crypto market as bitcoin price will eventually recover and reach new ATH after all this negative issues will be resolved.

Not everyone is actually happy about it. There are many people who considered themselves suffering because of it while others are saying that it is a great opportunity to buy during the dip. We should not be too selfish and consider other people's feelings with regards to their investments. Bitcoin will soon recover once again that is why we should all not be sad about what's happening and find a way on how we can take advantage of the current dip. We will soon get our holdings back again, just have faith with bitcoin.

Expectations always don’t favour ourselves.
I too expected that BTC won’t fall so much, but gradually it went more down.
I guess this is just because of some rich people boycotting BTC from their services.
And personally i am not happy after seeing the dump of the coin, as i was planning to sell the coins at high price.
Nevertheless i will hold more and will see where the price ends.
Wish all of us best of luck.

I cannot resist trolling you here, bryant... .. you made a couple of points and even though I largely agree with your sentiment, they seem worthy of discussion and/or clarification.

The logic of saying that we are closer to $0 than $100k makes sense because let's say at just shy of $36k, we could lose 100% and then we are at zero.  But if we gain 100%, we are only at $72k.. but there is some lack of appreciation for how difficult, at this point to get bitcoin to actually go to zero or even anywhere close to zero.

Personally, I am currently considering getting below $20k would be really tough absent some pretty severe events.. but we have seen them before in the past.. Another extreme bottom would be the 208-week moving average, which is currently at about $13,000.  We have touched upon the 208-week moving average a few times in the past, and actually dipped below it for about a week around the time of the mid-March 2020 liquidity (it was at around $5k at that time).

So, surely I agree with your overall point, bryant about such difficulties to get the BTC price to go down below certain price points, but one of the wonderful things about any asymmetrical bet, and bitcoin seems to be one of the more convincing ones in current times is that for every dollar or other quantity of value that you invest, you can get multiples of returns of that dollar.. but you are ONLY going to be able to lose up to 100% at the most, of course, if you use leverage that is another story and perhaps another reason NOT to be fucking around with leverage because it is NOT only not necessary with such an asymmetrical bet such as bitcoin, it is also causing your already risky bet into bitcoin to become way more risky (actually some people are starting to consider bitcoin amongst the less risky of bets, these days.. which is kind of a recently increasing frame of mind in regards to bitcoin).


If you started out investing $750k into BTC at $35,715, then that would get you 21 BTC.. not a bad number to achieve. 

Then if bitcoin went up to $47,619, then you could become a millionnaire, perhaps even overnight... you never know.

Sure, you might be referring to smaller levels of investment, such as someone who might be more of an average joe with perhaps $10k or $20k that s/he could lump sum invest into bitcoin and then maybe buy BTC on a regular basis.. perhaps another $5k to $10k per year... So, yeah even a fairly aggressive investment strategy like that could take several years to play out before the BTC portfolio reached a million in value.

However, if someone takes [url=http://a 5-year time horizon, and looks back, a mere investment of $200 per week (which would be $52,200 invested for that period and achieved a BTC portfolio of 18.8 BTC)]a 5-year time horizon, and looks back, a mere investment of $200 per week (which would be $52,200 invested for that period and achieved a BTC portfolio of 18.8 BTC) [/url]would have brought the BTC investor to millionaire status for the period of time that BTC prices were above $53.2k.. sure only a short period of time, and at current BTC prices, such portfolio would only be worth $722k.


On the other hand, let's say that such BTC investor had a quite a bit of reservations about buying BTC with a lump sum, so such person began investing with DCA in the beginning starting around May/June 2016.. but then with the passage of time and studying into BTC, there came more conviction about the long term bullish case of bitcoin, so in around August/September 2017 such investor decided to make a lump sum investment into BTC of an additional $20k - and such person was not able to exactly buy the dip, and mostly ended up FOMO buying at an average price of about $4k per BTC (which would add about 5BTC onto their current DCA-ing stash) so would have 23.8 BTC currently.

So, currently at $36k prices such 23.8 BTC would be just shy of a $1million valuation at $857k; however when BTC prices were above $42k, such portfolio would have been worth more than a $million.

Surely, the premise of NOT becoming a millionaire overnight remains true, even though there are some scenarios that we could paint for normie peeps to have become a millionaire in a decently quick status because they had taken an assertive position in their BTC investment and without necessarily employing much risk.. just investing an amount that was doable for them, and surely I would recommend against using leverage.

Currently, we have a bitcoin price dynamics situation in which we may well NOT be able to reasonably expect the same level of percentage returns as had been achieved in the past 5 years, so maybe such person employing the same or a similar strategy might need to either invest more or just have a bit of a longer time horizon.. if $1 million were the goal or some other amount of value. 

By the way, when I got into BTC investing in late 2013, I had considered a million dollars to be a kind of bare entry-level amount in order to enter into "fuck you" status.  If you think about it, with a presumed withdrawal rate of 4% per year, $1 million could bring $3,333 per month of passive income (at least income from withdrawing 4% per year from the asset).  Currently, with inflation that has already occurred since 2013 and including both recent money printer (go burr) and ongoing expected increases in
prices, likely a minimum entry level fuck you status is going to have to move up from $1 million to $2 million....   Sure, there are probably people who are going to need more than that and some people would be able to get by with less, but just as a general guideline.. probably $2 million is a more reasonable target for minimum level of "fuck you" status.. that would thereby generate $6,667 per month of passive income.. based on such 4% per year withdrawal rate anticipations.
 

I like to suggest that anyone getting into BTC, should consider holding their coins for at least 4 years minimum from any purchases that they are making and of course 10 years or longer is even better.  So, going through a few 4 year cycles in BTC would have very decent chances of putting many people in a decent place as long as they are holding and accumulating BTC with whatever strategies are comfortable for them.. hopefully without going overboard in terms of how they manage their investment and cashflows, and being able to live (and pay expenses) through the ongoing ups and downs that are expected to continue in BTClandia.

Yes, if you are aiming for long term then this would serve as opportunity since the market already grown and now currently experiencing
correction, just make sure that you are ready to hold for much longer period to lessen the chance of losing your investment.

Development and adoption bring value to this asset, with more to come the value will grow more as well.

Very possible as it happened before to those who believe and continue supporting this market.

If you are using the long term method and want to make a purchase now, this may be the right choice to make a purchase and although such things have become commonplace for those who have been in the industry for a long time.
the difference from year to year is only the development, growth and adoption that continues to grow.
and if you make a purchase now for the long term you will likely get double the profit if it reaches the price of 65K or more.

It's always a good time to buy bitcoin when it going dip its a common as well that there will always a negative thoughts of some ppl when it comes to the situation. But the fact that bitcoin still upgrading or should i say it keeps getting stronger when it always plunges that would be enough reason to buy and hodl... Indeed this isn't new and bitcoin always experience such declined but see what happen afterwards? It keep making ATH and always going to the moon after it fells like a rock.. That's why bicoin believer will always win on this race.. Not those negative ppl. Just saying.

Bitcoin is known to be more profitable in the long term than in the short term but that is also not the reason why bitcoin should not be used as a day traded asset. Day trader take profit of market fluctuation to make a profit, so fluctuation in bitcoin trading should not be blamed as a form of risk that people should avoid. Although currently bitcoin has experienced a decline of almost half of the previous ATH price, I believe trader and investor are still quite confident in the potential it will achieve in the future.

It's not exactly the best thing but sure it is really a great chance for those who want to add their investment, or for those who want to afford bitcoin in lower price. If the dip encourage people to buy more bitcoin of course it is a good thing, since the price is affected by supply and demand, and when the demand increases then the price will increase as well. Maybe this can lead into the increase of bitcoin price more and more to the goal reaching $100k.

What sort of logic is that? Another 2x increase in the prices should take Bitcoin to $100,000. In order for Bitcoin to drop to $0, the price needs to be dropped by tens of thousands of times. So your logic doesn't make any sense. Anyway, if you want to invest in Bitcoin, then you need to have patience. Bitcoin will not make you a millionaire overnight. You need to hold the coins for many years, to become rich. Compared to the levels we had 12 months ago, we are still in green, and that too by a massive +300%. Let me know what are the other assets that gave this much appreciation during this period.

Bitcoin price is very volatile.  Therefore we should invest in long term not for short term investment.  Don't buy bitcoins for trading.  But buy bitcoin for future investment.  Now the price of bitcoin is only 36k.  this is our opportunity to buy long term investment.

We were also closer to $0 than $65k in September, but we ended up going 6.5x the then price.

So shows you how ridiculous any assertion about zero is, in terms of a comparison.


Yes, we might get a deeper dive, but we also may have reached the bottom already. So, hopefully you are not betting so much on down, when we might not go down more.

Seems a bit retarded for some folks to be expecting more down in a bull market when we have already gotten 53% down..

Sure, anything can happen, but best to be prepared for either price direction rather than just one price direction.


Who gives any shits about "crypto."  We are talking about bitcoin here.


People can use bitcoin however they want to use it.


I doubt that you merely get a "stable" price from having "equal distribution of coins", but as the BTC price rises, it becomes more difficult to manipulate the price, which will likely lead to more stability.

Even though there have been a lot of claims that bitcoin is becoming more and more stable, and probably the evidence shows it becoming somewhat more stable with the passage of time and the increases in its market cap.  However, large drops of 53% in less than a month and also most of that drop coming in a day or so, does not inspire confidence in regards to bitcoin's price stablility.  I would think that bitcoin will continue to become more and more stable as its market cap continues to grow.. and sure perhaps bitcoin will need to become 100x gold's market cap before it starts to become way less manipulated than therefore relatively more stable.