Topic: The fall from 65k to $30k was the best thing to ever happen to Bitcoin - page 6. (Read 1225 times)

Sure, many of us appreciate that the value of bitcoin remains strong in spite of these various dumps that seem severe at the time, and perception of ongoing value seems to be part of the reason that there are limitations in terms of how much dump can be achieved and how long the BTC price can be kept down.

There are going to be ongoing attempts to push the BTC price down, but questions remain whether they will be successful because for sure we know that there are some who have goals to push the BTC price down as far as they can and to keep it down as long as they can, but at some point they run out of ammunition whether it is more coins or more FUD,.. and just are no longer able to change the UP momentum.. and we surely seem to be in an ongoingly UPward pressure time, in spite of signs to the contrary.



Perhaps you are correct that more retail are buying at this time.  It can be quite difficult to know who is buying because surely some retail has gotten scared out of their coins and scared from getting into BTC.. It seems to me that institutions and richer folks could be accumulating behind the scenes and we cannot really know for sure who is buying exactly.

In the end, not even bitcoin gives any shits about who is buying or not.. and sure there could be some inclinations towards skewed acquisition, and we know that it is better for smaller players including poor people to get some BTC.. but really difficult to imagine that a lot of them are doing it..

Yeah, it's just the matter of perspective. Many people might complain about the price drop, especially those who are not patient enough to hold and only want instant profit. However, it's such a good news for others who want to afford bitcoin in a lower price, and will be able to let new players into market as well. This dip is such a golden opportunity and shouldn't be missed.

Interesting.
But nothing is lost if you know how important a secure decentralized finance is. The price went down but the value remains strong.

I think it's good to see the community/people buying those dips rather than having the whale do it. Better to have the coins supply in the hands of thousands/millions of people rather than in hands of the few.

Never ever miss any dip when correction market is going on and it's really great to get another oppertunity to accumulate more btc at low price . Indeed, it's the best thing for diamond hand hodlers of bitcoin. Though few users will be upset with the current situation and will always complain about market manipualtion, but it's not the first time as we already experienced this type of huge correction previously and investors always push down bitcoin so that they could accumulate more in their portfolio. Whenever they'll be finished with their accumulation, bitcoin will rebound from this sidewise movement and good news will be started to circulate. As a result, major resistance would be nothing because of huge volumes and bullish again for another new ATH. 

Same. I'd also like bitcoin to drop in the short-mid term for the exact same reasons as you've stated. Do I feel guilty because some people get hurt by the drops though? Not really; because bitcoin will move where the markets will lead it to anyway, regardless of what my wants are.

These dips don't matter infact if we have a look at past price history of Bitcoin.We reached ATH of $64k and we were Happy but now when they are down to $35k what's the big deal in this?At one point we were standing at $3k in previous 2 years so it's still far better than that.On the contrary basis it is sometimes best when you have surplus fund and want to invest again but due to price cannot.Long term hodlers treat dips as opportunities to gain more profits which we also need to do.Then dips become special occasion for us.

I can honestly say that the price correction from $65K to $30K is the best thing to explain to trader and investor who are new to bitcoin that bitcoin investing and trading carries risks that are worth considering for them. I don't want to talk about long term investor, but for new investor especially those who are concerned with short term profit it can be very frustrating to see how the value of their investment asset has gone down.

Someone I know last week told me that he has lost 20% more of his current total investment asset because the bitcoin price has corrected. Obviously he is not a person with a lot of experience in this area, but because he is so sure that the bullish will continue, he will keep his asset for a longer period of time. I will probably admit that wherever the price of bitcoin goes there will be winners and losers.

in my opinion the rate at which the bitcoin price went to 65k is as sudden and it was built on shaky ground and that is why it droped so quickly, i really rather see the price going up real slow rather thn these sudden jumps in prices, but it is good that it droped because it will allow for more people who  have intrest in investing in it to actual do so especialy if they know that they can make so good profit from holding it long term, and also i feel like the price drop actually helps bitcoin stays somewhat under the radar.

I mean, sure I would probably agree that the current situation means Bitcoin isn't great as a currency, but there are people out there that do use it as one. Most people I know that are serious about Bitcoin are currently holding or investing somewhat regularly. Although, I would say most of the adoption we've had is from speculative investors so they aren't exactly healthy for the currency in the long term, since most will likely want to get out. Therefore, it could be suggested that these investors could actually mean there will be more frequent bull runs, rather than longer ones which could actually effect the confidence of others in Bitcoin.

I just don't think its as black, and white as it might appear. Bull runs are exciting, and everyone wishes they invested sooner, and the bull run lasted longer. However, I'm actually not that bothered by how Bitcoin reacts in the short term. In fact, I would personally like to keep Bitcoin as low as possible for the time being, so we could acquire more for services provided.

Huh? You are presuming a lot hatshepsut93, if you believe that a 53% correction means that we have fallen out of the bull run.  Sure, it could be the case that $64,895 (on April 13 - merely 7 weeks ago) was the top for this particular bull cycle, but think about the matter a wee bit more before presuming that the bull cycle is over...


again.... "huh?"  What the fuck you talking about?

We had a BTC price run from $10k-ish in the beginning of September to nearly $65k in the middle of April, and so that is a 6.5x BTC price appreciation for that period. 

Even if we look at our current BTC price of about $37k as I type this post, that is still about a 3.7x price rise from merely 9 months ago...

Again, you seem to be presuming that the price run is over, merely because we are in the midst of a correction that brought us down 53% from $64,895 to $30,066 and now we are currently at about a 43% distance from getting back to the top..

By the way, I will concede with any kind of overall point that BTC's price growth is slowing down and is likely to slow down because with any new asset class, it is going to be way easier to attain astronomical and exponential growth in the earliest days of its price discovery, so inevitably there is going to be truth to claims that assets that mature more and more are not going to be able to sustain their earlier levels of exponential price appreciation.   Nonetheless, there remains a whole hell of a lot of prematurity in your presumption that this particular bull run is over.

By the way, there are also a lot of ways to attempt to measure exponential price rise periods, so we could end up getting quite a bit of swing in the numbers merely from making choices regarding how to measure the various price rise periods.  One of my personal favorite ways to attempt to make comparisons would be to describe the BTC price rises within a context of the four-year cycles, and then instead of looking at the extremes of the cycle to attempt to look at a round about number to figure out a base jumping off point for the beginning of the bull cycle, which may well not be known until the cycle is allowed to play out for a while.. so even with that we can get some round about numbers in terms of attempting to put our run cycle into context in terms of how the four years seems to be playing out. 

So for example our 2017 BTC price run largely seemed to have started from mid-to-late 2015 with a base starting rate of around $250.  So the $19,666 top would have been about a 78x price increase.  The 2013 run to $1,163 did start from sub $10 in 2012, but we could just round it up to $10 to assert that the price rise was at least 116x.  So, we already see a decrease in the exponential price rises (at least looking at the tippity top price for that run) for each of those 4 year periods.

It seems to me that if we take our current period, reasonable assertions can be made that our price foundation would be around $4,200 from April 2019.. Yeah, of course, you can use other numbers, but I believe that there is a decent amount of BTC price performance to show $4,200-ish as a decent and fair jumping off point for this particular bull run that we are in and attempts to consider whether the bull run might be over and how much this particular bull run might have shrunk in size from previous bullruns to consider if there might be some concerns about the size (presuming that it is over).  So, if $64,895 ends up being the top, then that would be about a 15.5x price appreciation.. which surely is quite a bit lower than the previous ones that were in the ballpark of 116x and 78x respectively. 

Personally, I believe that the potential magnitude of the drop of the exponential peak for this period to a measly 15.5x lends more support to theories that the bull run is not over yet rather than presuming that BTC's grown is dramatically shrinking - especially since it also seems way too premature to proclaim that $64,895 is the top for this run. and furthermore, if some people seem to be very inclined to rush to judgement rather than looking at actual charts showing BTC past performance, there are reasonable arguments that could be made regarding our current cycle to play out as a kind of double top scenario that somewhat resembles the 2013 double top.  Sure, it may well not play out exactly the same, and no one should really expect such a current cycle to play out with any kind of exactness because there are a lot of dynamics in bitcoin that are different now as compared to 2013 - even if some of the overriding supply halvening principles (that help to give more credence to 4 year cycles) remain intact in bitcoin's design.

So, if we look at 2013 more closely we see that it achieved 116x through two cycles and the first cycle to around $263 in April, would have constituted a 26x increase in the early stages of the price rise, and then a pretty BIG ASS price drop down to $70--ish and then a decently long period that brought questions to whether the price run was over, yet... and surely later in the year the run began to show signs of recovery, and once the BTC price started getting close to the $263 top from April, it ended up rising quite quickly after that to reach the $1,163 blow off top.

So, bitcoin's increasing adoption does take away from blow off tops being so short and so short lived and even the extremes of down seem to take longer to play out, even though they can surely feel like they are happening quickly and that they are "unprecedented" while they are happening, including our BTC price drop from supra $50k to $30,066 which took over a week to play out even while the drop from supra $40k to $30,066 took less than a day to play out.   
 


You have a lot of seemingly nonsensical presumptions built into your various assessments of the state of BTC, hatshepsut93.  Your assertion that almost everyone is aware of bitcoin is almost complete bullshit.

Sure there are a lot of people who are aware of bitcoin because they heard the word "bitcoin."  But so many people do not even know what bitcoin is, including a lot of people who buy bitcoin.

Anyhow, you can presume all that you like about bitcoin being mature or largely adopted because you are wanting to suggest that its price peaks are flattening - including that either $64,895 is the top or pretty damned close to the top. 

We will find out, won't we? 

To me there seems to be a whole hell of a lot of more potential UPpity for this particular cycle, but surely further UPpity is far from guaranteed....

On an individual level, each of us is responsible for our own level of preparedness for both UP and DOWN scenarios.. as well as flat scenarios (which seems to be the least likely of the bunch)...


When we conceive of the various entrants, users of bitcoin and services offered, it seems a bit problematic to be framing the matter in terms of what we might want or not want because bitcoin is designed in such a way that there is no control over who uses it or does not use it..  or whether it is adopted or not.

Sure, there are incentives built into bitcoin that seem to suggest that it could be a good idea to get some bitcoin in case it catches on, and then once you have the bitcoin, then you have options concerning whether you use one service or another that is provided by someone else or if you try to lessen your reliance on going through third party services.

Of course, there are peeps out there who are saying that "adoption is our goal" but in the end, bitcoin does not really need any marketers - even though, surely it does not hurt to have people becoming more and more aware of bitcoin with the passage of time, and some of them figure out that "it might be good for me to get some of this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie in case it might catch on."    hahahaha



Just because they might hear the word from time to time or see some news reports on it does not really mean that they know shit about it.  Furthermore, you can ask some of these nocoiners who have heard about bitcoin and quickly find out they hardly know shit about it, even if they had heard the word several times.


It's going to become pretty damned novel once some of these no coiners actually set up an account and buy some bitcoin.. and when that happens, some of them are going to become way more enlightened in terms of going to be like.. "holy shit!!!! I did not know about this thingie-ma-jiggie that is be called "the bitcoins," previously."  So of course there is a difference between passively hearing about something and coming around to understand it on a deeper level.


Seems quite inevitable that with something like money or an asset class like bitcoin, then greater and greater adoption would be causing less and less volatility, in part because it is going to take more and more capital to move the price one direction or another.  I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about what you "hope for", so one of the better strategies is to attempt to figure out how to prepare yourself for whatever might happen rather than hoping for something that may or may not happen. 

Even in 2017 a lot of people didn't know what Bitcoin was, but now regular people see it in on their news regularly, because mainstream media reports about big movements or some interesting stories related to it.

Of course there's still a huge room for adoption, but the novelty factor is not the same as before.


From a point of view of hodler, it would have been better if the magnitude of bull cycles slowed down later. It's still so volatile that most people aren't ready to use it as a currency, so why not hope for bigger bull runs while we're at it?

It's a useful experience for new investors, of course. Bitcoin as an investment is risky, and people have to be aware how much the price can drop. Moreover, some believed that Bitcoin would be okay this time because institutional investors are more reliable than individual newbies, but evidently, this isn't the case. Regarding the network, I think it's actually good that the price is down because the fees are finally okay.
Eventually, Bitcoin recovers, and it does seem to become more popular and gain more attention over time. But the rates of adoption are very low.

I completely understand what you're saying, but if adoption is the goal, it's better to have Bitcoin within reach of more people. People using custodial services when it's completely unnecessary certainly is a cause of concern, but I feel like this is an easier problem to solve than lack of adoption. I see it as kind of like how people are much more aware of what to put and not to put on social media nowadays vs. a decade ago -- people are going to start talking about it, and at least a decent portion will listen.

I dislike that banks will be in a position of power in this scenario, but since it's always been open for use to everyone, it's not like we can stop them if they want to get involved anyway. All we can really do is speak with our own wallets and encourage other people to do the same. Either way, I personally believe getting more people involved = better.

I'm not sure if this was the best one. But it was expected. For this reason, I sold all my bitcoins from ownr wallet shortly before. I felt that something like this would happen.

I am not sure if "welcoming" BTC price drops should be the right kind of mentality, even though surely I understand what you are saying Welsh, in terms of accepting the BTC price drops as an opportunity to continue to buy more BTC and to accumulate more BTC than you would have been able to accumulate if the BTC price had either stayed flat or just ongoingly gravitated UPpity without any meaningful price drops.

Accordingly, surely recognizing BTC price drops as opportunities to buy more and even to already be in a position to buy by having money available and accounts already set up that you can buy through puts you in a pretty damned good position compared to so many normies out there who either do not recognize the BTC price dips as buying opportunities and/or do not have BTC related accounts set up in order that they are even able to take advantage of the BTC price dips when they do happen.


Well, there can be some advantages in keeping some balanced perspective in regards to the entrances of banks into the bitcoin space.  Of course, having a lot of skepticism towards banks remains quite healthy, and even being aware that there is a difference between custodying your own BTC and having some third-party custody your BTC.  One of the considerable advantages and power of BTC is being able to demand and achieve immediate custody over it, so surely setting up contractual relations with banks or other third parties that remove your ability to immediate custody is going to increasingly become a phenomena that becomes more and more known by the general population as we get more and more used to some of the powers of bitcoin and being able to assert and exercise some of those powers.

Surely various kinds of finanacialization of BTC should not merely be considered as incorporating traditional institutions into bitcoin because so far, and to my knowledge, bitcoin itself has not given up those kinds of powers, even if some (and perhaps many) individuals/institutions are choosing to use various services of third parties, and there are even some institutions that are forbidden from self-custody - even though likely several of the standards around self-custody versus third-party custody are going to be changing in the years to come, including becoming more and more aware about how some of the features (powers) of bitcoin will be usable to design more sophisticated custodying solutions that leave more power in the hands of the actual owner of the asset rather than with banks or other kinds of third-party custodians.


Of course, a lot of what you are saying makes sense, mindrust - although I am not going to go along with any kind of suggesting that there would ever be any need for any kind of bitcoin name change.. because king daddy no gives no shits.. including the fact that its name has already been established and getting consensus upon a name change is just NOT going to happen.. if we are actually trying to stay in the "real world" with our various conceptualizations of the future.

So, what about you mindrust?  Are you "real"?  Have you come back around to attempting to get bitcoin back into your life as a central investment mechanism rather than getting roped into investing your time, mentality and presumably finances into a lot of distractions (aka shitcoins and other likely inferior investments)?

Surely many of us need to be careful in any of our investments in terms of attempting to find a balance that allows us to neither panic at the wrong times, but also not to be led down some various detached from reality paths in terms of either BTC price dynamics or the likely roles of a variety of other projects that might sound promising but they are lacking in a lot of ways when they are not somehow accounting for the ongoingly dominant role of king daddy, including that king daddy is not going to be losing its dominant role, even though in the short-term (maybe even 20, 50 or 100 years) there are going to continue to be a decent number snake oil projects that can be ways to earn money in the short term, but they are not really tied to solid foundations, like BTC has been providing and will likely continue to provide.

I guess in sum, what I am trying to suggest is that there remains a decent amount of need to appreciate that bitcoin prices can be pushed down, but there are certain kinds of limits to how much that it can end up getting pushed down or that theoretically it seems quite unlikely that it is going to be pushed down below certain limits - without getting into fantasylandia thinking (which seems to be part of the point that you were making in your above post).  Surely, there are a lot of projects out there in which we could allocate some of our value and even have some potential for short term profits, but then we still do not have certain assurances regarding how far they are going to dump, once they start dumping. 

Anyhow, I hope that you mindrust, and maybe even some other folks who had gotten distracted into potential upside of various non-bitcoin projects and who seemed to have had lost confidence in terms of the solidness of bitcoin price floors, have come around to reconsidering their allocations in bitcoin and perhaps even their ways to ease back into bitcoin and/or increase their BTC allocations in such a way that is more in line with the reality that bitcoin remains the best investment out there, and when we are having various dips (especially relatively BIG ones like we just have seen - down 53%-ish from $64,895 to $30,066), then these remain opportunities to increase BTC allocations - especially if there had been some movements away from that in the past... for sure, each person has to figure out his/her own way of accomplishing allocation objectives and also reallocation objectives including figuring out if there are ways to use seemingly decently sized price dips to their advantage(s).

I think you countered your own counter argument there though. Bull runs, are expected somewhat to slow down, in terms of the amount of people buying in, and the longevity of them. In theory, as more people invest in Bitcoin, the more it should become stable. the longer, and the closer we get to the limit it shouldn't be so volatile. This is helped by the block rewards being reduced as time goes on.

So, while you might be correct in it not being a good thing, I don't see it as a necessarily bad thing. It entirely depends on your perspective, since if you are a opportunistic investor then this is a good thing, and all the previous times it was a good thing. If you are someone who wants to use Bitcoin as a currency, then of course this can be seen as a bad thing, especially if you are focusing on Bitcoin as a currency right now.

There's always two sides of the spectrum, so there will always be people who benefit from price drops, and those that lose out. Usually, this is linked to confidence in Bitcoin, the reasons for investing, and what they intend to use Bitcoin for.

There are definitely hard core investors who are hurting right about now and they only have themselves to blame by pushing up the price with little more than hype and thehpoe of ever higher prices for their investment.

I'm also glad the price has fallen & I hope it drops to sub $20,000 by years' end and stays there for a few/many years to come.

I admit asking a friend to invest at ATH, which is disconcerting, I tell them to look at the quantity of the coin and not the price, which I think is reasonable. or is it an alibi? Investing in Bitcoin is for the long term, this is a good time to increase your asset.

Who exactly do you mean when you say "almost everyone is aware of Bitcoin"? Are they regular investors in stocks, gold, bonds or similar things - or do you think most people in the world generally know about BTC?

Hearing about something, knowing something about something, and understanding something are completely different things. If we take into account that 45% of people do not have access to the Internet, out of the remaining 55% who theoretically have the opportunity to invest in BTC - how many of them actually actively participate in everything that happens in, say, the last 6 months? I would say that it is at most about 5%, although it is very easily possible that it is less than that. It is still a game that has a very limited number of players globally - especially those who can influence the market with their moves.

Indeed but I'm looking at it from a different perspective than what you and most other users are discussing here...
^{- What I'm about to mention might not be 100% accurate, since I'm not going to refer to any of the charts but whenever we experience one of these ATH moments, it also results in huge spikes in fees [understandably] and when crashes of that extent happen, we're mostly left with true bitcoiners and that also leads to fees going down drastically.}