Topic: The fear of global recession is real or just a speculation? - page 2. (Read 560 times)

Most governments are corrupt, and that means we do not get to see the benefits of our taxes in almost any nation in the world and recession will of course be an issue when corruption is higher. They will just print double what they need, half of it to ALL people and half of it to their rich friends, or even themselves.

This is why recession is so much worse than inflation in my mind, during inflation you need to pay more for the workers, if you do not, then someone else will be, but during recession everyone cuts spending, which means you need to cut even more than the corrupt ones since they will try to do illegal but bribed ways of making more than you.

If that's true, then you can hedge against Apple and the S&P 500 at the same time:

- When Apple goes down (significantly), sell your S&P 500 stock if everyone is arguing about a recession at the time.

- Then, when Apple goes up again, buy back your S&P 500 stocks

Easy way to take advantage of people's inability to agree on whether there is a recession or not by gauging the stocks of companies producing stuff that everybody wants to buy.

disclaimer not investment advice

Today we hear a lot of scary news about the global recession.  I don't think it's fake.  If we look at it in micro form, there are many types of industries that have an impact due to the current world economic uncertainty.  It may not be as complete as the recession in 2008 but I have seen a lot of people who are worried about the state of their economy right now.

The other issue here is that it's fairly normal for a government to borrow money or receive financial aid during a recession and the higher the corruption, the more debt that could end up being taken by the whole country to be used for and by just a few people in control there (if they're corrupt enough and there's little able to make them leave - especially if it isn't publicised).


I don't think this is really a problem unless the recession is huge or lasts a long time. The sector a recession hits and the epicentre of where it affects feels it for decades to come, everyone else doesn't really. If a recession hits and GDP falls, the same amount of people are often still looking to produce things and within about 3 years, the economy can adapt to the new climate of what's needed and wanted in an area and gaps can be completely filled by then (companies spring up during recessions from people hoarding cash because the gamble is normally considered worth it - especially when most other things are collapsing in value).

A lot of people also contribute to the efforts of regrowing the economy by completely giving up or changing course from what they were doing (which is likely easier in a wealth country) - many people (especially young) thinking of joining the workforce or who have been recently employed and sacked (/fired) because of the recession may turn to education instead and improve their skills ready for when the market picks up - a lot of people in the 2008 crash getting jobs have seen their wages stagnate because so many applied for jobs during a recession (in the US, this hasn't happened as much in Europe).

A lot of developed countries may be overleveraged but they're normally all part of the same house of cards (and have to stop each other from collapsing as most economies are unable to survive without both imports and exports).

Recession does happen but sometimes the media makes too much noise and if we follow it it will cause panic, the media always overreacts in reporting things and this is because they want to attract people's interest and in the end get profit from advertising, as humans who have experienced difficulties of course crises and recessions are normal thing and don't make us too afraid.

Yes, I agree, many governments looks frightened they won't be able to control the people anymore. After Covid limitations and lockdowns people are losing patience and bad news may fuel riots etc. So they're trying to sweep it under the rug, hoping the situation will improve next Q or next year.

We need to judge each country according to their respective circumstances, a country which is still developing but which has a low amount of debt and it is self-sufficient when it comes to food and other key sectors will probably do fine, however many developed countries could do terribly during a recession as they are the most heavily indebted countries around the world and the room they have to maneuver is very tight.

I am not sure Op why are you asking this question now dear if you still think a global recession is real or speculation then I am not sure how you are justifying the current inflation all over the world. Dear global recession is ongoing the current economic crisis in each country is due to the global recession but it is going to be worse afterward. The whole financial ecosystem is stuck now and in the long run views it going to collapse and then maybe we need some new type of economic cycle without interest. The current situation is messed up as you better know and all this is due to the Intrest system and it's the only reason for the future collapse, this system is unfair to the Lower and Middle-class community.

Long Story, in Short, a new economic model is going to be established sooner or later and I am hoping for Bitcoin as the priority lets see what happens next to it.

That's why the war hasn't ended yet because there are countries that have benefited from it, so they are still trying to get as much benefit as possible. But if every country's leader realizes that war does not bring good to all parties, they should stop the war and try to communicate with each other to discuss the real problem in the world. Besides that, the countries can not feel the benefits because the war has given victims to each side. So it needs awareness from all the country's leaders but maybe it won't happen shortly because they all have to lower their egos to reach that agreement.

Yea I agree with this but developing countries will still suffer economically. Somehow developing countries that are dying in the hands of corrupt and incompetent leaders struggle really hard to move forward and learn from past experiences. The world around them learn and invent different ways to deal with issues while they are just content on how things are because they don't give a shit if the country gets better or not.
So if a global recession is to happen, I'm very certain that developing countries especially developing countries in Africa will feel it the most because they're too dependant on the developed countries.

I think the idea is that if recession happens everywhere, then it is a global issue, doesn't matter how much it impacted each nation. It would not be an issue if there were 30 nations with recession and 30 without recession and rest are just in the middle, then it is not a trouble and it is understandable but if ALL nations have recession, yet some have very little, it is still recession no matter how small it is.

Look at inflation numbers, there are nations with 5-10% and there are nations with 100%+, did we say that we didn't had inflation? Even though it varied from nation to nation, since all of us had it, we said it was a global thing, same will happen.

Usually a seemingly slow recovery like the one in the current example won't experience a more profound fragility, as a faster recovery is also more likely to experience a more profound correction making it appear fragile. In fact a seemingly slow recovery could also lay the foundation for a more certain growth this year and I'm saying this more to Bitcoin as an example. Not to the business cycle or global economic growth.

To start with, the global recession that is about to happen or has begun is not due to any war.
The global recession is avoidable but the government is doing little to avoid this menancr that is about to happen . This global station is likely because of inflation
The only solution the government has is to bring print more money and to be very honest this is not the best approach to avoiding the recession.
The recession might not hit the whole world but there is some part of the countries where it will hit them very well

Yes, we may be in a recession, but not all are the same. I see many people say that they are facing many difficulties in life due to unfavorable work and insufficient income for daily expenses but there are also many people who say they are making more money than usual. That said, recessions or crises don't negatively affect all industries or everyone. If we know how to take advantage and seize opportunities, the failure of others is sometimes our own opportunity.

While there is no doubt that the current global recovery remains slow and fragile, there is a general consensus among economists that we are now experiencing a period of more sustainable economic growth. Nonetheless, individual countries may experience a recession as part of their normal business cycle.

It is true that many economies around the world have been affected by COVID-19 pandemic, and some of them may be in recession now. However, it is important to note that situation can greatly vary from country to country and industry to industry. It is understandable to feel concerned about potential layoffs, but it is important to focus on what you can control, such as doing your best work and staying up-to-date on company developments and always prioritize your health and well being during these uncertain times.

World trade stability become one of the main reason why the professional called it that 2023 could become a dark one to get through with recession around the corner and you might now feels the recession has begun already with all those basic needs uprising ... no job space left even there a lot of mass layoffs.

Moreover ... there always a speculation after that , the exaggerated naration etc , beware just beware.

Economic recession was affected huge country in the world.The Ukraine war had affected even the small countries because of their oil supply.When the powerful Russia had their war on Ukraine,most of the countries had make their announcement of tax on Russia and some financial block to Russia.But the Ukrainian get some support throughout the world.But no country had started a war against Russia to fight in Russia behalf of Ukraine.The only reason is Russia is big Nation with all short of weapons.So most of the countries not ready to fight for the Ukraine,even after they had the soft corn towards the war.The war alone not the reason,the recession is also based on the climate change and flood.

From what I see these days, the fear as you call it is rescinding as inflation starts to come back now and the situation is somewhat normalizing after Putin decided to start the first war in Europe for over 60 years. However there is still a long way to go to mend it and any more chaos could trigger a collapse rather quickly. That's the thing about recessions and corrections, they often jump out of nowhere and usually quite dissimilar to previous ones. However the effects of inflation have yet to be fully realized in certain countries, because in the UK for example there are 2/3/5 year mortgage terms that need renewing at much higher rates when they expire, which could trigger a wave of house selling and push down property prices in future - having a wider knock on effect to the economy. There could be similar situations in other countries which will only play out in the next 2 years.

From what am I seeing, we are already on it, we started it last year maybe and I am just hoping that we will not suffer too much just like what they are saying I am also afraid to what is happening to other company, lots of layoff this year, being in a person works in corpo l am afraid that our company might face a huge problem that will lead them to cutting people from their job.