Topic: The fear of global recession is real or just a speculation? - page 4. (Read 509 times)

I think the fed, even though they are talking about 2 percent inflation, will stop at 4 percent. They are just using hawkish rhetoric now solely for market speculation. don't trust them. As it say, nothing personal - just business.

Based on the kind of country I live in and the current happenings here, I think it has reach a point where I personally, I'm no longer afraid of anything, be it a global recession of whatever, you guys can ask my fellow Nigerians, what is currently happening in Nigeria is having a huge negative effects on the citizens, far more than the effect of a global recession would have.

Like I always say, I don't think we will ever arrive at a stage in this world 🗺 where everything will be just fine, every nation living at peace, no natural disasters of any kind, people loving and caring for each other all over the world.
I don't mean to be negative minded, but I speak the fact, the sooner we learn to deal with any problem(s) we are faced with at any given time, the better.

I do not know how to face the challenges of natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes and floods. These cannot be faced, but their effects can only be mitigated. Is there a way to prevent earthquakes, hurricanes and floods from occurring? I don "t think so.

The only thing that can be addressed is climate change caused by man due to his industrial and nuclear activities, as well as bloody wars that contribute to the destruction of human resources and cause significant climate pollution.

However, the major industrial countries refuse to reduce their environmental polluting activities, and powerful countries cannot be prevented from waging wars on weak countries, so what is the solution?

After everything that happened within the few years, after the pandemic, there are a lot of considerations and events that have an impact on the possible global recession. A lot of people have been having a hard time with having the necessities and just living. It's a sign of a possible recession.

When the government decides to bail out again, the problem now would be the supply of money, and then it would end up with higher rates to cover up the supply.

Definitely real.

After we have battled the pandemic and not gone extinct, survived the great toilet paper shortage, and managed to survive without cooking oil,  surprisingly we here in Europe haven't yet frozen to death, we have been able to avoid eating our pet hamsters, managed to survive another wood, lumber and coal shortage, seems like even the egg crisis will go away and despite the fears of bankruptcy and recessions the EU economy is still growing (inflationary adjusted), how could one that has witnessed all this fearmongering and all the experts predicting a billion crises feel?


Look from all angles:
https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/revenues
- it went down 5% compared to 2021 but it's still 5% bigger than 2020 and 30% compared to 2019.
Leaving aside the lockdowns in China, there have been already signs immediately after the launch of the 14 that a lot of users will simply not upgrade just for that, iPhones are optimized to run easily and no 13 users are experiencing any hiccups so a lot of them are deciding to upgrade less frequently, my father is still happy with his first one, an xs and doesn't plan on ever changing it unless it breaks.
Apple will need to adjust its business model, this is not 2014 anymore when you could double specs in two years.

Didn't we already saw some of it or its clue already happened? That has triggered the inflation rate for most countries to go up and I think that it's for real.

Yeah, the media might romanticizing it but there's a point that it actually exist/existed.

With the tech industry, too many of employees are being laid off and note that we're done with the peak of the pandemic crisis although the war is still there but, to relate that isn't really close at all.

Lots have happened within the space of 2022 in both the traditional environment and crypto market that could lesser recession even it comes as they say, it is possible that we might experience a recession or maybe not but the more I look into this headline, the more I see it as a tool by opposition government to tackle democratic party as a message to people that he didn't do well in his regime and should be replaced after his first time in office. Another reason why I think the recession is a tool that people have been trying to exploit is the bears in crypto and also Tradfi, they are trying to make people fear that we will be going down another history where the economy will be in a downtrend so that everyone can sell their shares and bitcoin, it is all visible from their write up and reaction.

I think it is real. Haven't you seen what happened to the iphone sales?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64506940

If that's not recession, then I don't know what is. Iphone is simply the best electronic device that everyone wants to buy but somehow people can't do that. That's because they have to pay for their rent, food, water etc and there isn't any money left to buy an iphone.

Well if you read what the fed wants is they want lower inflation basically at 2%. And they also want a good economy. Pretty much a soft landing. However there is a feedback loop.

If there is a tight labor market then inflation will always be at risk. Because to find workers employers need to pay them more which comes at a cost to the customer. So inflation increases.

So if the fed wants to fight inflation then they need higher unemployment , how do you do that without causing a recession ? It’s very difficult.

Yes, there is a well-known concept called " The expectation effect". When majority of the people anticipate a negative event, such as recession, they will adjust their behavior accordingly, which can mitigate the impact of event. However, sometimes it doesn't work, the reality of negative event can still be much worse than what was expected. This can be true when other factors are at play, such as, sudden and unexpected shock to the economy.

You are correct that political changes can also create instability and disrupt the economy.

I think the fear of a global recession is just speculation. Almost every negative event imaginable has already happened. Inflation has started to come down gradually. No one is interested in driving the economy into a real recession.

There is a rule in economics that says as long as there is something expected, the damage resulting from the expectation is less serious than the possibility of the expectation occurring.
And therefore, as long as people expect a recession, if it does happen it will be less severe, although I am surprised that it was not as severe as it was shown in the previous month of June.

Unexpected things are the ones that have a devastating effect. Therefore, I hope that many political changes will not occur this year, because their impact will be greater and deeper.

whenever there is a bitcoin ATH there is always a correction.. expect it. its normal

whenever there is a excessive fiat inflation there is always a correction(oops recession).. expect it. its normal

..
here is the thing though.
fiat money has different layers

there are the m0,m1,m2,m3 layers

when inflation occurs. but that excess money it pushed to the institutions. it does not reach the normal citizens(much*). thus doesnt change citizens lives(much*).. thus no one is (much*) better off at the bottom

when those debt created moneys are clawed back. and recession happens only at the institutional level. it only affects them big time(mostly*).
..  (*it can trickle down and citizens see their favourite business/service no longer open. and a few temporary events of unemployment. and some richguys going poor.
but generally normal citizens dont "feel it")

however when new excessive inflation money is thrown at the citizens (trick up)
citizens love it they spend the extra "government cheques" (free money)

but that causes businesses to raise their goods/services prices.
and then when the "free money" stops. citizens at the bottom dont have excess income. but see excessive prices

i wont go through all the different versions of inflation where money is designated for different levels and reactions to other levels. but you get the general idea
inflation and recessions can help/harm different groups depending on how the funds are first distributed and then clawed back

Well recessions are generally by surprise. Nobody expects a recession when it happens.

Right now, everybody and I mean everybody is talking about a recession. So this leads me to think it won't happen and this "soft landing" by the fed might be actually possible. What is preventing a recession right now is the tight job market. Even though inflation is high, people are still working and looking for higher paying jobs and that's why everything is still functional. If the job market doesn't crash then we might get a soft landing.

However the way it looks right now, with next week CPI, it might indicate that the fed needs to raise interest rates even higher. And doing so will create even more problems for the job market. So its impossible to say whether or not we will get a recession.

I think we're already entering it, and it's not just because of the war. Two years of the pandemic hit the economy hard as well, and recessions just happen from time to time because I don't think constant growth without setbacks is even possible.
Maybe it won't hit as hard as the previous one initially did, but perhaps it will be a longer period of a milder stagnation. Also, not all countries and areas of life will be hit equally. Those that seem likely to be hit harder are the energy sector and food sector. Last time it was stocks, debt bonds.

It's both. Why a lot of economists and speculators are somewhat expecting a global recession because their personal analysis of fundamental data is telling them that it should occur. But regardless, in the end it's still speculation because no one simply knows for sure if it will occur. People are just placing bets.

I won't say we are technically into a recession yet but the foundation is being built for sure! Global tech and marketing companies are firing people like crazy because they understand that there will be a huge decline in the demand. Some product based companies are not going to meet their revenue forecast. Things are tough!

But as you rightly said that it will be less severe than 2008, hopefully! The GDP growth hasn't stopped but slowed down for sure. Unless the inflation is tackled, you will get into a recession for sure!

As time passes and we become better informed on challenges and obstacles we face. I believe we will naturally acclimate and adapt to the changing world and its shifting circumstances. Our survival and prosperity will depend upon us doing so. The only question is what form our adaptation will take. I think there are always people doing crazy things we would not expect, taking things to extremes that are both shocking and surprising. When it comes to topics like climate change and global recessions, I think it will be no different. There will be many who will address these topics in ways we would not expect, using any loophole or advantage they can find to do things that are unexpected.

Our culture and society will adapt and shift to meet these challenges head on. To some degree, I think these changes are already manifesting. They say the best way to predict the future is to invent it. And undoubtedly there are many who are taking this to heart.

Doesn't a drop in inflation normally cause a recession under some of the criteria (ie gdp could drop if domestic spending falls - that could be a particular problem for the larger and more exposed economies like the US and China but I imagine it'd go further than that and cause something more global).

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I wouldn't bet on it but there's been a lot of speculation governments have become better at handling recessions for the people that experience it the most (generally by giving cash or resource handouts - though they seem to be more Conservative/right wing overall now and there's a chance that's stunting growth like it normally does).

There are already foundations, NGO’s, groups and much more which are formed across the globe however we are failing to achieve the desired results. I think there are as much as worlds leading community’s doing there best to resist the climate change. 

UN Environment Programme
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC)
the Green Climate Fund(GCF)
Climate Investment Funds

And much more to count on. The list is big and growing all the time as we seek real organisations to fight this through for the sake of humanity.

I am not sure how much successful it is or will be but we do have plans for all. It’s just that we have made it worst in this world and god knows how far we gonna get.