I think that's a rational and simple way to look at it, but in my own estimations, the chances for success are much higher.
This price down-turn is necessary, which is why, as a holder, I find myself smiling this morning. I don't think it's over either. Hold on to your asses! Once we get this out of the way, the chains are off. No more excessive leveraged positions holding us in place, and a lot of people acting irrationally, while the biggest bulls just lost their positions and watch the train leave the station. Panic.
You guys asked for wall street to get in on bitcoin, I don't think you knew what you were wishing for. They are here, right now, they are about to shake you down for all your coins, because the window of opportunity is closing. Lock those coins up folks. Put your straight jacket on if you need to.
Agreed 100%.
Wall street is selling and buying back their own coins to depress price by taking advantage of delusion sentiment about the missed bubble. Also August is perfect for the above manipulation because there's statistically less people trading on exchanges, this means that said manipulation is also cheaper to achieve.
What do you think is special about August that makes people be less active on exchanges? I have read some people attributing that to it being the Summer months, and people are doing other things than sitting in front of a computer. But when you think about it though...it is always Summer somewhere in the world...
Mind you, i'm answering a question about a guess i made, therefore i must stay in "guess space"
In my probably wrong opinion bitcoin exchange market has been statistically mapped by "big players" since 2011 by analyzing (and correlating) factors like timestamps of market events and relative intensity, geolocalization of such events where possible and also obfuscation of emerged patterns by deliberate production of statiscal noise to make analysis harder to smaller analysts.
It *could* be that the northern hemisphere, and in more details big cities in europe/usa/asia, emerged in said analysys like big players in bitcoin market. If that chain of dumb guesses made any sense, August is the right month to achieve a cheap manipulation.
Keeping on guessing it looks to me that once market milking is done it make sense to reach september, where statistical market pressure gains normality and above, with exchanges price more aligned to hypotetical nominal values. Well over 700 near the end of August is my guess, with strong acceleration just the last days.
I also think the above manipulation will lead to a bubble whose apex, where most of traders will sell hoping to buy back lower, will coincide to another big one (etf maybe) which will haircut a lot of gamblers.
