Actually the bull run that would happen after halving event is just a pure speculation.
If halving event is the reason of bull run, why it's need to wait for next few months or year to increase? there's nothing difference between during halving event and a year after halving event because the reward already halved.
I agree that it is all pure speculation as we have neither proof nor any guarantee for it. But the bull season did not come immediately after the halving and that we hastily concluded that the halving was not the catalyst that created the bull season is not entirely correct. Everything takes time to absorb and be effective, we cannot expect it to happen immediately.
Furthermore, this is the financial market and if everything is so predictable then who will be the losers in the market? Making money in the financial markets has never been easy and there aren't too many winners, so it has to happen in the most unexpected way. When the crowd is most hopeful and excited, it will not come, but when the crowd becomes depressed and disappointed, that is when the bull season will come.
Personally, I still believe that the halving is the catalyst for the bull season, but the market is also being manipulated so the bull season will always come in the most unexpected way.
Good points, something I never thought about before but it makes sense that the Halving is the
catalyst for the bull market which has followed every time so far. I guess its speculation, everyone
knows "its going to happen" and we all move in that direction which actually creates the bull market,
maybe its like a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Maybe its a HODL'ing thing, there is a increase in adoption, more people getting into Bitcoin, more
speculators, more buying and HODL'ing even when the dump happens.
Furthermore, this is the financial market and if everything is so predictable then who will be the losers in the market?
The losers will be the ones who essentially "buy high" and "sell low".
Some people want to see results before they get into Bitcoin so they only buy when the price is high,
we all know that the markets dont keep going up and up. There will be others approximately 12 months
from now who will but right before a big market correction
if it happens as per previous post halving market corrections