Topic: The next bitcoin bubble will be massive - page 3. (Read 15349 times)

Have you not seen silk road?  There are many thousands of sellers, it's huge and growing, it's WAY more than doubled.

It is difficult to get at precise data, but when you look at actual, real-world bitcoin use to pay for goods and services, you see mainly Silk Road, Satoshi Dice, and a few others. Who is paying with bitcoins at namecheap.com or wordpress.com? Very few, an insignificant fraction of their customers.

And don't believe for a moment that Cypriots and Spaniards are buying bitcoin to flee from the euro. If anything, they buy gold or simply transfer their money to foreign banks. The Cyprus myth has had an effect though, it made more newbie speculators buy bitcoin.

So by how much has real-world use of bitcoin increased? Before the bubble, real-world use justified a bitcoin price of $2. If that real-world use had indeed doubled since then, it would now justify a price of $4.

Then you have some long-term speculators, who keep the price somewhat higher, simply because they believe in a fair chance for a bright longer-term future for bitcoin. I am one of them. I bought bitcoins at $10. I might be tempted to buy some more if the price falls back below $20, but that's about it.

Bitcoin will not live forever. It may get cracked. It may suddenly be superseded by something else. It may get stuck in its own technical problems because of its inability to handle a much higher number of transactions than it can barely handle today. It may get destroyed by its enemies. Its grand idea will certainly live on and may never go away again, but its first incarnation may not live for very long. That said, I'd be very happy if I could still use bitcoins 10 years from now.

"by much" - much relatively (% increase in users, transaction, merchants) or absolutely (No. of users, transaction, merchants)?

loooooooooool.

No way in hell prices are going back to $20.

Your timing was half a year early, but otherwise you seem to be astonishingly well on course. It looks as if $120 is now well in reach.

It is impossible to make any reliable and precise predictions for a bubble like this, but I would guess that this one will burst within the coming weeks. Since the number of transactions will explode when it bursts, Mt.Gox will stall as usual, so the trick is to sell your bitcoins before the panic sets in.

Since real-world bitcoin use has not increased by much since before the bubble, we can expect prices to sink back to $20 or even below $10 within about half a year. Don't believe the Cyprus news—the Cypriots have not bought bitcoins. Neither have the Spaniards. And if some very few actually have, they will be the first to join the sell-off panic to save whatever little bit they can still get out. Nearly everybody in the bubble has bought bitcoins for only one reason—because the price was rising. That's pure bubble-mania.

Unless its just a speed bump on our way to $1000 lol

Depends when you put the start of the runup. I'd put it at beginning of January. That's a slower runup than predicted. I'd still say it's a good call if we crash down to $15 or below after we've reached $120, though. (A bubble always pops all the way, right?)

Regardless of the timing he still said a 2 month run up to a bubble that pops at $120... which we are well on course for.

He didn't. He said mid-october 2012.

Let's hope the OP doesn't call this correctly. BTC now at $104.

It can be argued however, that history tends to repeat itself in financial markets and there is nothing that hasnt been there before (99.9% of the time correct). Thats why chart patterns and the likes can be observed.

For a "pattern" of such magnitude as described by the OP nonetheless, I fail to see the drivers or precedents.

past does not predict future

I wonder of what grounds this model is based other than wishful thinking (sorry OP, didnt grind through the whole thread)

Why would there be another bubble of epic proportions that can already be foretold?? Other then the high probability of anything big that happens to change fundamentals and to spur another bubble, I fail to see what it is OP bases his prediction on.

Necroing this thread, we've gone well over 4 months since the creation of this thread.

Is this theory officially busted?

fantastic. makes the price look steady (steadily rising) this whole year

It is better to show this kind of chart with a log scale. With a log scale all price increases are relative. That is, for example, a doubling of the price looks the same no matter what the price is.

Or just one ask at $100 of 30k btc

He doesn't have to sell, just announce a specific pattern of asks that adds up to 30k btc and then make it so.

I think you now have to sell those 30k bitcoins or all of us are going to have to call you a liar. If you have them, you can get damn near $13 each in one solid sell. It will also confirm you are not lying.

Come on.... What are you waiting for?

and get left behind as we go to 100$ ?