Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.
Why?
IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.
We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back
We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.
Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.
Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.
This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.
Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?
A nice insight. During the ath at Nov. 2013, only a few people all over the world knew about this bitcoin thing. When the price skyrocketed, many people--particularly those who thought of bitcoin as a legitimate 'get-rich-quick' scheme'--entered the scene and thus add to the buying and selling force. Some who faced losses in buying bitcoins left the markets, but most of them don't, and stayed. The point is there are more users who might add up to the buying force in the market once another bubble occurs. If the Wall Street and other major players in the economic scene invested in bitcoin, then people who are looking for an opportunity to get some hefty profit may (or may not) invest into bitcoins as well. Seeing that most of the major financial institutions are also invested, they might feel safe in having this investment. As a result, the graphs will see a horizontal uptrend, but no one will be accused of manipulation because, well, there are many people who are willing to buy bitcoins at any given price. The bubble could explode any time, but the cycle could be easily repeated because there are many people who might support the next bubble. Well if another bubble will happen, I can at least say that it will be bigger this time, given that the exposure bitcoin gained over the past years is higher compared to what it had om 2009-2013.