Topic: The Oracle of crypto digitalindustry trading investing fundamentals advice. - page 2. (Read 3839 times)

i'm not implying that a change in the reward will cause monopoly, there is already by definition "a monopoly"  the algo is SCRYPT so who do you think has been mining it?

i'm saying a viable break in the monopoly is possible longer term, the changing of a reward is by definition "messing with the reward." this is changing the mechanics of the monetary distribution so yes its a big deal.

thanks for the link.

Please excuse my ignorance. What do you mean by "messed with"? Changes? I don't see how changes to the reward would imply a monopoly as long as it's staying POW and not changing to POS.

As a side note, V3 ANN is here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/dgc-digitalcoin-30-multi-algorithm-improved-blockchain-storage-released-785601

TT

updated - based on the update its not a write off, and the multi pow is a good start.

if the reward is messed with this will be to compensate for the multi PoW - in that case it secures a little monpoly that will quickly fall apart.

Very interested to hear more thoughts and suggestions on the future of Digitalcoin as changes begin to materialize. Watching this thread.

TT

Bart inspired me.

i've added digitalcoin !

yes pls.

add

- pure stakes in the top 50 market capital
- NXT, shareX (maid, DP, CP) as a group or one in particular
- Name or Ix
- PTS or XxX

and a expanded review on
Quark - A high speed network that has proven itself secure.

Efficiency?  This one is murky, but my understanding is it is incredibly Efficient.  $ required to maintain a secure network.
Also on the nature of the security.  You seem to have a good handle on the tech.
   


Yes you seem see the same pattern.

The "Brands" and they are here already.  I doubt more than 10 new major coins will rise into the Top50 after the new year.  Forever.  

But their will be a large batch of fairly solid "farm league coins" that refuse to die because they have mastered a niche and have the ability to adapt quickly.  In this small-mid cap range, experimentation will be quickly rewarded and encouraged by the market.   The trends will rise up.  Once a trend is clear then the Top50 "Brands" will adopt any new innovation, given it shows advantage ... a "rotating stock"  of "features" and "gimmicks".

In the end it causes a barrier to enter, a wall too high to scale, the small caps do all the hard work, R&D, and the Top50 quickly add any trend feature that seems to threaten their monopoly/position.

BTC and LTC face a major problem because they are too distributed and likely could not organize a simple fork.  It would take an epic 'event' and 'panic' to accomplish a big code update.

Personally I am a conservative on the 'fork' idea.  The code is the contract, it should not be rewritten.

There will be a line in the sand for most, conservative/purist that refuse even simple and helpful upgrades and the populist who want the latest "gimmicks" and want it right now. (I blame Vericoin.)

----
Re Crypto Derivatives / Ether share-x  ripple etc counter-party etc.



I think you nailed it there.   These are oranges not apples, will you go with this definition?

The "share-x" are "payment container" not "money"

I can only explain as a concept, the NXT is only a 'sheet of commercial paper' the value is the security and ease of transfer that they system allows.  Imagine a blank bank note, unsigned check, a empty security box.  Not really valuable as is.  

But I do suggest that $millions can be assigned to these 'contracts' so expect creativity and invention and lots of trends.

But does this give value to NXT or CP or DP or MAID?  Not much.  And the field will be competitive to provide the best/cheapest.
  

This is pretty good analysis - basically what was said here -  http://kolinevans.wordpress.com/2014/08/30/rainbow-charts-not-so-much-but-more-interesting-fundamental-charts/

notice how a 6 month pattern can follow a 4 years chart, well its not set in stone yet but we will see. (I agree on the longer tail aspect so we jinxed here)

I will address some of these others you mentioned, a full disto like Zeta that is SHA256 may become the victim of "accidental monopoly" but they could do a number of things improve the situation.

Most other system with hard caps are ultimately doomed, they are by definition "crypto stocks" with a shelf life.

I will cover soon:

- Monero
- Peer
- Prime
- Caps
- Other PoW/PoS
- Myriad
- NXT (maybe should we bother?) (maybe to help people learn)
- Doge

others,  open to suggestion.




OK I'm not sure I'm 100% clear on the question but let me say what i think i understand :

- Yes I think that humans always find leaders, so what becomes a small connection expands and becomes a larger connection and pending further info this network effect expands, this is how "Brands" come about and even psychological patterns like "eating bacon for breakfast" or "Giving a fiancé a diamond"  these were all marketing tools that stuck on humans.  

- So yes some larger brands will come forward and then there will be a "rotating stock"  of "features" and "gimmicks" etc. but anything Key or important, the large brands should be able to integrate.

Now re your question on QT

I don't think the QT will be replaced for a long time, remember i'm agnostic, i'm not using any emotion but i will explain why:

1. - Security matters number 1 for confidence.

2. The QT and the idea of a "Full node" will be like a "server"

3. I think the Mini BC will be an evolutionary success

4. "Full users" full node holders will be rewarded in some small way for their "Peer" elder status in society. I.e if you run a full node you will be respected.

5. QT will not matter - it will hold the C++ interface that is secure for the "full node" holders, everything else will be basically a Hardware wallet or basically what Frozen bit is proposing here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fund-raiser-frozenbit-multi-currency-multisignature-open-source-wallet-673533

6 so i have to write off anything Java sorry, as a full node you see, Java for Mobile or anything else is fine. web anything goes but when the facts matter - this is a Peer market and the Peers are going to laugh at Java.

* There are a generation of new people learning C++ now its hard to see that it is replaced as it is the "trusted" open source system for structural design.
* so the pretty stuff can go on top of that you see.

------

Also Re Crypto Derivatives

Ether share-x  ripple etc counter-party etc.

the ideas for these came about by the strong human will to monopolize and fight the free market, but we have to be careful on definitions here.

We need to split productive capacity from "money" i'm not sure how to explain this but i will try:

if a company makes a product and uses a money to "settle trade" or facilitate "energy transfer" then they are by default attempting to add value to the money and/through the product.

this is completely normal and beautifully ok - but if the "money" does not adhere to "neutral control" in distribution it simply becomes a "payment container" and can not be priced, ( and will never have a market price)

^^^^^ sorry that's the best i can do for now. will come back to this and try to explain.

sshhhh...don't scare the btc zombies..."There is no coin but bitcoin!"

I thinks you might be speaking truths a coming ... so now just between us here (and those souls on the www) ...  

Yes BTC could roll down to $400 then $300 then $200 but I think you will see some thing similar to the long charts of World/Mega/Q but over a long and stable 18-24 months bearish drift on the bottom.

BTC market volume will continue to trend up to around 1-2% of total MC.  $30M/hr?
  
LTC will flatline for a long bottom of $4-$1 but approach the market volume of BTC (cuz it's quicker) $20M/hr?

Thus a question will nag to be answered "Why then is btc x20-x100 times more in price?  Cuz satoshi?"  

Enter a big crisis of faith, the beginning of coin-Apocalypse.

The general market consensus will become "LTC" is toxic cuz of the "China mining monopoly".  Which is trueish, China will start to build an ASIC kingdom in scyrpt first.  Only very slowly will the market also 'get' that they can capture SHA256 too.  

But this 'china monopoly' event will have to come in the form of 10,000 TH asic units that never ship  ... (we are at 50TH boxes today, still allowed for export).  So this is way off in the future ... like 2017

During this time 'alt' minables will rise some.  

But any thoughts that already 'distributed' coins might become the new and mighty?      

NXT and Q will be holding a good position to make a BIG jump, but so to will BC, XC, rdd, pnd, mint and other pure stakes, then Peer and any old school mineable that has nearly mined out (say Doge), And cpu bot nets byte, monero, prime, ect.ect.

And then there is always UNO, and Zeta if they can gain SHA network strength. (UNO nearly ZERO inflation, zeta just 1%/yr)

So you see the next 'new new' is not straight forward, and thus the Market Cap held in BTC will face a diaspora?

++++++++++++

I will also ask if the Oracle has seen visions of this:

The major coins will be limited to 100 or so holding spots on the main 10 global exchanges.  Behind that will be a field of 400-500 farm league coins.  But all those are coins launched between 2012-2015.

Post 2015 there will still be a new IPO coin of the hour, every hour on the hour.  But the 'asset' trading systems or platform will be used.  The old QT platform will be to 'burdensome'.  

In this system will be multi-$Billion MC coins too, and also a coin for your cat, dog, and favorite youtube video ... a coin for everyone and everything.  The market will start to get this idea in 2015, as 'coin burnout' takes hold.  

That explains the sudden #3 empire of 'shareX'  ... nxt, pts, cp, maid, sys, xrp make for tight competition field already ... and etherum has yet to flex its muscle ... but these 'shareX' systems are the rising stars ... LTC has crashed but is not forgotten, DRK will be on the rise again some day, and BTC could hit a new high but it will be like smoking crack to get sober ... the inflation problem will haunt any coin gunning for $Big Cap evalues while stuck in long inflationary periods, and captured by a mining monoply.

And I have still not mentioned the 'obvious' choice for security via strong AND distributed network of miners.

But it got mentioned >> http://kolinevans.wordpress.com/2014/08/22/what-would-a-crypto-currency-collapse-look-like/

tldt;  yes buy some Q, but buy more UNO!  

_{Zeta, Doge, and pure stakes will be okay too once a fair market price floor is established. Anything distributed widely and almost completely.  Don't forget on secure network too.  So for zeta and infinitiiii - NO SOUP FOR YOU!}

Much more likely than not , headline risks are mass adoption of sovereign digital systems , but then i think there will always be a supranational neutral control alternative.

There are of course risks eventually of sovereign attack but there really is no motive, if you understand what "money" is you will understand where motive comes from , money is simply a token for your energy.

A state generally does not  have a strong motive to try to own your energy, as they have to be more "representative" based on future projected information flow.

So you could use an example of past historical example as argument against that statement, but i can show that information is flowing in an uncontrollable way, subject to further proliferation in the future.

Oracle bump to spread glorious wisdom.

Oracle notes:

- Added dates for general ref under each name and logo - fee free to screen shot or quote for data integrity.

-----------------------------

- 00:06:05 For more enjoyment and greater efficiency...
- 00:05:27 and greater efficiency, consumption is being standardized.
- 00:05:32 We are sorry.

-----------------------------

- information is still proliferating at and exceptional rate in this dimension. (not to imply that there is any more viable one than this, that is conjecture at best and unproven)
- headline risks are the termination of the majority of life on the planet, but they seem to remain fairly small.

-----------------------------

- expect a small short squeeze of the monopoly crytpo  - 17 Sept - 2014.

-----------------------------

- added key pizazz and jazz to topic. the pizazz is machine code readable and will be found humorous at the binary level, the Jazz will not be interpreted by all systems.

All Updates have been moved to CCT :

https://cryptocointalk.com/topic/20963-the-oracle-of-crypto-digitalindustry-trading-investing-fundamentals-advice/?p=144898

Got something to say come say? it to me there - all links are updated on my blog to CCT - you can sign in with a Twitter.

This will be my last post and this will not be updated.

follow twitter here - @Kolin_Quark








Who reads it -:

- This topic is linked from my (future) multi award winning and sometimes semi literate Blog - http://kolinevans.wordpress.com/about/
- It is also passed around the offices at many surveillance centers as our diligent protectors uphold the Constitution and International Law. Quote "he's losing his god dammed marbles" - CoH
- Satoshi reads this, both the hacked version of Satoshi and sum of the atoms that make up the reality of "Satoshi"
- Warren Buffet Read this, but thinks it's a "Hodge Podge" of English characters on a computer screen, (which I take as a strong endorsement.)
- someone is reading this in the "90's"




Intro -:

If you can't understand something feel free to post in the topic and ask for an explanation - but i will keep these brief as i expect you to have higher than potato IQ.

feel free to ask me to asses if you are about to lose all your wealth on some derivative or ponzi scheme. ( you probably are..) (its the journey not the destination)

If it's not here it probably doesn't matter, or I'm not aware of it for some reason - feel free to change that by posting in the topic.




Crypto Currency in The Market Cap
No particular order

When the oracle uses a market cap he prefers :

Crypt Market Cap
http://cryptmarketcap.com/
as its simple and one does not have to filter the IPO derivatives. but go to "coinmarketcap" for a more diverse set of sources.

*subject to change.

* look at original date stamp of topic for historical price references.






Bitcoin
August 29, 2014, 05:04:06 AM  price 508~

Hold / Sell on pumps -:

you know my feeling on Bitcoin it was a great start but its monopoly on mining seems under a cloud, (and cloud mining isn't going to save it).

if you like reading, The more adoption = higher cap meme is gone.
http://kolinevans.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/why-the-bitcoin-price-really-needs-bad-news/

Citi agrees with me:
http://www.coindesk.com/citi-miners-merchants-keeping-bitcoin-prices-check/

With monopoly failure Bitcoin is not decentralized, and open to "hostile takeover"
http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/16/how-a-mining-monopoly-can-attack-bitcoin/

The Chinese free market can achieve this "take over" in my assessment which breaks all trust in the entity.

Summary -:
If you get a selling opportunity higher than here take it, long term this entity relies on a questionable monopoly, and with China's economic production growing and the rest of the worlds shrinking they will soon own the mining production on Bitcoin, The total cap is irrelevant as a 60 or 70% miner can Bitcoin QE or "bring Bitcoin down" in favor of a competitor.

if you see signals like this, its time to bail.

Price targets -: If Bitcoin survives a crash and hard-fork i think the market will value it between $10 and $50, without a hard fork maybe $1 high risk brand awareness.



Litecoin
August 29, 2014, 05:04:06 AM

Hold/slow acquire Wait for KnC to deliver -:

ahh Litecoin you are Bitcoin lite (somy) , lite cheese , lite milk, who actually likes those things?

apart from its obviously unfortunate branding, LTC can probably pull  through as a monopoly Crypto an here is why:

despite its better market distribution, it is still very much a monopoly, but pending new ASIC developments there is no way that anyone can out mine the dedicated Chinese mining interests that manufacture most Scrypt ASIC.

this means Litecoin could be the "Best monopoly" meaning that they can better price manipulate in the short term.

I will make a big prediction and say that at a point the BTC and LTC caps will cross, now this doesn't mean that LTC moves into the $100's but rather it takes up the prime monopoly position over Bitcoin and BTC falls.

what is the meeting point?  maybe $30 to $50 very hard to predict, as BTC fails large holders could shift to the "most reliable monopoly" in which case LTC moves up to $100 for a short time, then the market realizes that monopoly crypto is a meme and competing forces drive the price to a "mean base".

Summary:
Remember Fellow learners in a monopoly the market does not matter, so the "market adoption" or customer "take up" matters less in the short term than how good the monopoly is and how well it can be controlled in this aspect Litecoin can be the winner in the short term.
Price for mean base upon that scenario $10 ~ $30 but this relies on that scenario, key things to watch are the continued stagnation of the market. followed by a crash.

further reading:
http://kolinevans.wordpress.com/2014/08/22/what-would-a-crypto-currency-collapse-look-like/
http://kolinevans.wordpress.com/2014/07/04/why-has-litecoin-decoupled-from-bitcoin-and-is-on-a-price-decline-and-why-is-this-important-for-quark-and-other-free-market-crypto-currencies/




Quark

Slow acquire / obtain between under 1c and 3c
August 29, 2014, 05:04:06 AM

Quark and other are the winner in the event of any break down in monopoly crypto currency, all this leaves is sponsored attacks, which would come from bank sponsored entities as the primary distribution for Quark has been completed.
so there is no "natural market incentive" for a monopoly on Quark, only a sponsored attack, this gives Quark and others key significant advantages.

- Price stability (as its fully distributed and has reached "base money status")
- ideal stable hedge against inflation or deflation.
- Quark is fee free (it solved key Bitcoin Payment problems 12 months ago)
- A high speed network that has proven itself secure.

Summary:

A bet on Quark is a bet that in a decentralized free market environment, a monopoly can not rule for very long, and based on all of my analysis that's a pretty ok bet, price target in event of a monopoly collapse (and other disruptions)
$1 to $5 as people start to see the benefit of storing paper tokens in crypto, right now the psychological incentive to "cash out of Quark" is that eager beavers believe they are going to "gain more in Bitcoin"
that meme is breaking down as the Bitcoin monopoly breaks down, so now a "cash out" of Quark will slowly merge into a Cash into paper.
my price is a conservative estimate because markets can get exuberant and paper tokens can become unstable.



Digitalcoin
September 13, 2014, 02:50:04 PM


nota long term buy at moment.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/dgc-digitalcoin-30-multi-algorithm-improved-blockchain-storage-released-785601
^^^^

This is a "pump and dump"
Based on these vectors (see link) -:

1. the Multi pow will be 3 monopoly PoW but will provide more decentralization, but:
2. The reward change is a reduction in reward buy 66%

Summary -:

I can reasonably assume that in this time, after the dump by the developer(s) that drove both a disinterest and a price drop, a group of Scrypt ASICs "owners" have been furiously mining it, now the same guys are going to split the PoW but vastly reduce the reward.

The gypsy trick works like this (I'm a gypsy);

- the PoW split opens the vast power of the SHA256 network, but the reward reduction more than compensates for further decentralization by the multi algos.

- but SHA256 will drive difficulty higher on that algo and make overall difficulty much higher.

- Lower rewards higher difficulty = higher fake value.

Go along for the ride if you like, but this is a long term donkey.

I don't want to offend anyone from the Digitalcoin team, how you can avoid these assessments is by creating a reasonable long term investment I can offer to real investors.
Don't take this as a non endorsement, but rather a long term problem in the short term DGC can rise just like LTC could rise.