Topic: The pain of playing unders in Football - page 2. (Read 758 times)

Schalke was close, the Karlsruhe match I totally misread.

Bank: 417,05 Euro
W/L: 22-33
Yield: -17,68%

#56 l Nuremberg - Wehen l under 2,5 l 2,53 l 8,34 Euro l Pinnacle
Nuremberg with their new coach will still try to look for more defensive stability, which already resulted in a 0-0 in their derby against Fürth the other week. Wehen is still trying with a more defensive approach, which got them quite successful after a horrible start to the season. Last match at home against Kiel though, they found themselves in a shootout again and lost 3-6, more like an icehockey scoreline. So for today, they will want to stop the goal flood and Nuremberg is not the team to score that easily like Kiel did. Nuremberg will want to take those 3 points whatever it takes and they might even explode today, but odds for under are tasty in what I expect to be a borefest.

#57 l St. Pauli - Hannover l under 2,5 l 2,03 l 8,17 Euro l SBO
Both teams will be pretty disappointed with their season so far, as they were expecting to be contenders for promotion and now see themselves at the bottom of the table. Problem is their lack of creativity, they are just not able to dominate the happenings on the pitch and mostly rely on their opponents mistakes. Hannover with their new defensive-minded coach will look for a clean sheet here in first place here. They just conceded too much in the past and it's hard to win games like that. I expect them to sit back and look for counterattacks, while St. Pauli always has troubles scoring against well organized teams.

#58 l Köln - Augsburg l under 2,5 l 2,17 l 8,01 Euro l Pinnacle
#59 l Berlin - Dortmund l under 2,5 l 2,49 l 7,85 Euro l Marathon
#60 l Hoffenheim - Düsseldorf l under 2,5 l 2,50 l 7,69 Euro l Pinnacle
#61 l Paderborn - Leipzig l under 3,5 l 2,10 l 7,54 Euro l Pinnacle
#62 l Bayern - Leverkusen l under 3,5 l 2,12 l 7,39 Euro l Dafabet

Bank: 434,25 Euro
W/L: 22-31
Yield: -14,54%

#54 l Karlsruhe - Regensburg l under 2,5 l 2,56 l 8,69 Euro l SBO
I actually think this game will go over, but I think the odds for under have some value. Both teams are very overish, with Karlsruhe being 9-5 and Regensburg even 10-4. If you take a closer look though, Karlsruhe have been very overish in away games, while Regensburg have been very overish in home games. Karlsruhe at home is just 3-3 and Regensburg away 4-3. While Karlsruhe is not losing very often, they also don't win very often, looks like they just love to split the points with 1-1 being their "favourite" result for that. The odds for 1X2 are completely wrong in my book, so I see a win for Regensburg here. That would mean that Karlsruhe is not allowed to score here for that to happen and the match resulting in a under. They scored in every home game thus far, so it's seems kind of likely that they will score today as well. If they fail to do so, I could very well see this one going under with a result like 0-1/0-2 then.

#55 l Schalke - Union l under 2,5 l 2,12 l 8,51 Euro l Dafabet

Bank: 431,58 Euro
W/L: 21-30
Yield: -15,73%

Nothing caught my attention in yesterdays CL matches. Two high priced unders came in at Liverpool and Lille, but I thought we would see lots of goals there. Today I picked two matches for EL.

#52 l Lazio - Cluj l under 2,5 l 2,29 l 8,63 Euro l SBO
Lazio needs the 3 points here, to have any hope of advancing to the next stage. While trying to achieve this, they also have to take care of the H2H with Cluj. First leg was 2-1 for Cluj, so Lazio either needs a 1-0 here or a win with at least 2 goals margin, like 2-0, 3-1, 4-2 etc. Cluj will be happy with any draw here, as it means they will secure at least 2nd place and advance from this group. They only conceded 3 goals in EL so far and in their domestic, albeit rather poor, league, there opponents only scored 13 goals in 17 matches against them, so there is some defensive stability. Cluj will sit back here, just looking for a 0-0 and Lazio doesn't need to score right away. A 1-0 is enough for them, so there is no need to go all out right from the start.

#53 l Rosenborg - Linz l under 2,5 l 2,21 l 8,46 Euro l SBO
Rosenborg will be heavily disappointed with their international campaign this year. They are sitting with zero points at the bottom of the table and have no hope of advancing to the next stage. So the two remaining matches are just some training matches for them. They scored only once and played under 3 of 4 matches. Linz is doing pretty good in this group with the two big names of Sporting and PSV. They were very competitive against both of them, even owning the H2H with PSV. A win today paired with a loss of PSV would already secure qualification for next stage. But they can very well live with a draw here too as it leaves all possibilities open for the last match against Sporting at home. Rosenborg probably doesn't care a lot about this match and temperatures will be below zero, which always favours the under a bit. I expect a boring game, where Linz will look not to concede first and then probably go for the 3 points in a slightly more offensive approach in second half.

Already lost this bet in 28th minute, but it was 1-2 FT then

Bank: 423,78 Euro
W/L: 20-30
Yield: -17,87%

#51 l Galatasaray - Brugge l under 2,5 l 1,92 l 8,48 Euro l Dafabet
Crucial match here, like a lot of matches in this round. Realistically both teams only play for third place in this group, which will put them in Europa League afterwards. Gala needs the win badly here, but they have huge trouble scoring this season. In CL they failed to find the back of the net even once and in domestic league, they have 13 goals in 12 games, pretty poor. Brugge will be happy with a draw and can just sit back, probably going for some counterattacks to maybe snatch the 3 points and having the hope of Paris taking points at Real this evening and thus giving Brugge a final for 2nd place at home against Real in the last round. But main goal for Brugge will be to not lose here and with Gala being so poor offensively, I think we will see a 0-0 late into the 2nd half. The rest remains to be seen.

Tons of goals in GER1 matches again. After a bad start to this test, I am around break-even for the last 40 bets, but thats not enough to recover the losses.

Bank: 432,43 Euro
W/L: 20-29
Yield: -16,17%

#50 l Hannover - Darmstadt l under 2,5 l 2,01 l 8,65 Euro l Dafabet
Darmstadt is always playing very defensively. Even if they take a 1-0 lead, they don't bother a lot going for a 2-0 with counter attacks, only sending 2-3 players most of the time. Hannover sacked their coach Slomka and installed Kenan Kocak as new coach. Kocak is known for a more defensive/cautious approach as well. Players that played in defense in their active career, tend to be defensive-minded coached as well. Hannover needs a win badly here, but it's not easy to score against Darmstadt, who will park the bus again. 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 are the most likely results for me.

Bank: 439,64 Euro
W/L: 19-27
Yield: -15,40%

#47 l Fürth - Nürnberg l under 2,5 l 2,12 l 8,79 Euro l Dafabet
Nürnberg were on a pretty poor run and conceded a lot, so they sacked their coach and got a new one. First task is to get defensive stability again, to give yourself a chance to win games again. When you regularly concede 3 goals or more, it's pretty hard to get points. Fürth has a lot of good offensive players, but it doesn't result in scoring a lot surprisingly. This is the oldest rivalry in german football and I expect a cautious approach by both teams.

The other two games in GER2 I see going over, though the under odds with Stuttgart - Karlsruhe are very tempting and this is a derby full of hate too.

#48 l Augsburg - Hertha l under 2,5 l 2,16 l 8,62 Euro l Pinnacle
#49 l Hoffenheim - Mainz l under 2,5 l 2,58 l 8,28 Euro l Pinnacle

Paderborn scoring 3 is just madness

Bank: 422,10 Euro
W/L: 15-24
Yield: -23,16%

#40 l Bielefeld - Sandhausen l under 2,5 l 2,12 l 8,44 Euro l Dafabet
Recent H2H favours the under. Sandhausen is probably the worst team, when it comes to creativeness. Surprisingly they have the second most shots on goal in the league, but they need over 15 shots on average to actually score a goal, which is the worst number in GER2. Bielefeld play very organized and Sandhausen will have problems scoring here. Now Bielefeld can easily score 3 on their own as around 17% of their shots result in a goal, but lets see. Sandhausen will park the bus and it won't be easy for Bielefeld to create a lot of goal scoring opportunities today.

#41 l Leverkusen - Freiburg l under 2,5 l 2,32 l 8,27 Euro l Pinnacle
#42 l Düsseldorf - Bayern i under 3,5 l 2,09 l 8,11 Euro l Dafabet
#43 l Frankfurt - Wolfsburg l under 2,5 l 2,33 l 7,95 Euro l SBO
#44 l Union - Mönchengladbach l under 2,5 l 2,26 l 7,79 Euro l Pinnacle
#45 l Bremen - Schalke i under 2,5 l 2,42 l 7,63 Euro l Dafabet
#46 l Leipzig - Köln l under 3,5 l 1,86 l 7,48 Euro l Dafabet

Bank: 439,50 Euro
W/L: 15-22
Yield: -18,97%

#38 l Aue - St. Pauli l under 2,5 l 2,05 l 8,79 Euro l Dafabet
Both these teams are under teams in my book. Aue has slowed down a bit after a fantastic start to the season; looks like they are back to normal with a good defense and few scoring. St. Pauli isn't very confident right now, their last win dates back to end of September. I expect a boring, low-quality game in low temperatures and a draw like 1-1 seems very likely for that.

#39 l Dortmund - Paderborn l under 3,5 l 2,42 l 8,61 Euro l Pinnacle
As I said earlier, I will play all GER1 matches under from now on and see where it gets me. GER1 has been so overish since the beginning, that it has to stop at some point. Will normally choose the under 2,5, but in this match under 3,5 is a bit safer and still priced good.

Bank: 433,18 Euro
W/L: 14-22
Yield: -21,54%

#37 l Wales - Hungary l under 2,5 l 1,73 l 8,66 Euro l Dafabet
Interesting situation in this group. Assuming Slovakia will beat Azerbaijan, not only Wales will need the 3 points here, but also Hungary as they lost the H2H with Slovakia. Wales and Hungary are both very underish teams and I don't expect them to go for a shootout here, but rather sit back, trying not to concede. Both teams can defend very well and are not the ones to easily crack a good defense offensively. Most likely we will see a very boring and tactical match until around the 75th minute, with both teams starting to open more up as we get closer to the final whistle. I wouldn't be surprised to see this going over in the last 15 minutes, but I still like my chances for the under with these odds.

Bank: 427,20 Euro
W/L: 13-22
Yield: -24,13%

I see few goals with Greece - Finland and Ireland - Denmark, but the odds are too low for my liking and no fan of quarter over/under.

#36 l Liechtenstein - Bosnia l under 3,5 l 1,70 l 8,54 Euro l Expekt
Liechtenstein, similar to Luxembourg, have progressed a lot in recent years. The results are still missing, but they are way more competitive now. Problem is their goal scoring - just 2 goals in nine matches is not what will give you any results. They still get blown out by top opposition, but against middle of the pack teams, they are able to keep the score close, especially at home. Bosnia surely are disappointed with not qualifying for EC in a group that was wide open behind Italy. Don't see Liechtenstein scoring here, but give a good fight. Bosnia will just want to get this match done and move on. They can score a lot, if they are motivated, but I doubt they will go all out this evening.

Bank: 418,09 Euro
W/L: 12-22
Yield: -27,92%

Adding another one for today.

#35 l Bulgaria - Czech Republic l under 2,5 l 2,09 l 8,36 l SBO
Czech Republic probably had a huge party after their win over Kosovo and securing qualification. I guess they couldn’t care less about this match. Bulgaria themselves are pretty poor and only managed to score 5 goals in 7 matches. There will be no spectators in Sofia today, which tends to lead to more underish outcomes in general.

It is natural in betting that you need to accept your damages because nothing is certain when it comes to that. Just accept and move on before that thing makes you mad and stressed. Cup matches are unstable and inconsistent for you to raise your bet at a high level.

Just place your bet on the side with a high percentage of winning. Easy as that, overs are the best option but not always. But they have higher possibilities of winning.

Better luck next time.

A 90+3 goal from North Macedonia made this another losing day.

Bank: 410,94 Euro
W/L: 11-22
Yield: -31,23%

A lot of games, where there is nothing to play for today, so only one under, that I like.

#34 l Luxembourg - Portugal l under 3,5 l 1,87 l 8,22 Euro l Dafabet
Win and in it is for Portugal. Depending on the result of the parallel game between Serbia and Ukraine, a draw or loss might be suffice as well, but Portugal surely won't rely on that. Luxembourg has shown some good progress over the years and are quite competitive nowadays for their standards. Portugal is often playing down to their competition and this Luxembourg team is no walk in the park. First leg ended 3-0 in Portugal. Weather in Luxemburg is rather shitty, so I don't see a lot of goals here. Don't think Luxembourg will score and lets see, if Portugal can score 4 here.

Match is only fun as long as both opponents have equal level of skills. Though I enjoy goals but that does not mean simple ones. When a good amount of effort is done, only then the goal becomes a thrilling one. We can expect such output from only few teams like FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Even La Liga is not as much fun as it used to be in the past years. Still the craze and excitement is there.

Bank: 421,48 Euro
W/L: 10-20
Yield: -30,16%

#31 l Azerbaijan - Wales l under 2,5 l 1,69 l 8,43 Euro l Dafabet
Wales needs the three points badly here. A draw would still keep them alive in this group, but chances to qualify for EC would be next to zero then. Both teams are pretty poor offensively, while Wales at least has an ok-ish defense. Don't see Azerbaijan scoring here today and Wales will probably be happy with defending a 1-0 lead until the final whistle.

#32 l Russia - Belgium l under 2,5 l 2,14 l 8,26 Euro l SBO
These odds are too high for my liking. Both teams already qualified and they have scored a lot against poorish competition in this group. But they also didn't concede a lot - only 5 goals in total. This is a friendly match in the end and I don't see them going all out here in coldish weather.

#33 l Austria - North Macedonia l under 2,5 l 2,43 l 8,10 Euro l Pinnacle
Austria only needs a draw to qualify, while North Macedonia needs all three to keep their hopes, and the hopes of Slovenia and Israel, alive. So Austria won't go all out here and North Macedonia will sit back first too and only open up in the latter stages of this match, giving Austria opportunities for counter attacks. Could get goal-ish at the end, but lets see, odds for under are good.

If there is a game between two teams that have a good defense and a world class goal keeper then you cannot expect many goals, the beauty of the game is different and i am not interested in a one sided goal fest and as a fan i like good matches and the tactics during the match gives me the kick as a fan and most of the times i go under and won a lot and sometimes i lost and it is part and parcel of a sports.

Playing football is enjoying and also cheering on your favorite team and player in their play. Some of us are not just watching playing football to make some thrill in playing we are betting on the different groups with good odds and make us also some profit and also we are satisfied with watching too. Usually, we want some huge profit by just waging a lot of money or assets but sometimes in the under, because if the odds are 90% above and the under are 10% below, and you bet in under it makes you a more significant profit because on that percentage or odds. Still, sometimes it was not good if you think they cannot win the game; you are playing with a significant risk of loss.

0-0 HT, 2-1 FT, never happens, when I play overs

Bank: 424,11 Euro
W/L: 9-19
Yield: -31,16%

#29 l Romania - Sweden l under 2,5 l 1,67 l 8,48 Euro l Dafabet
A draw would probably feel like a win for Sweden. Will keep them at second place and would 99% mean the qualification for EC with a home game against Faroe Islands on the horizon, where 3 safe points are to be expected. Sweden, if needed, can be a super hard nut to crack defensively and I expect them wanting to keep a clean sheet for whatever it takes this evening. Romania are no worldbeaters offensively, so don't see them scoring here. 0-0 is super likely here imo.

#30 l Bosnia - Italy l under 2,5 l 1,96 l 8,31 Euro l SBO
By the time this match is played, Bosnia is probably already out of contention, as Finland is expected to beat Liechtenstein and book their spot in EC. Italy is already qualified and will finish the group in first place. So this match will be more of a friendly one. Italy probably couldn't care less about this match and I am doubting Bosnia will be super motivated after hearing the news from Finland prior to kick-off.

Bit lucky here, as with 1-1 an awarded penalty by the referee was taken away by VAR again.

Bank: 432,77 Euro
W/L: 9-18
Yield: -28,62%

Will pick some unders for the international matches, until the domestlc leagues start again. So here we go.

#28 l Czech Republic - Kosovo l under 2,5 l 1,97 l 8,66 Euro l SBO
Crucial match here this evening. Kosovo won the home leg 2-1 and both teams fight for second spot in this group behind England sitting only 1 point apart. I think both teams will be fine with a draw here, though they surely would love to take the 3 points. With a win, Czech Republic would already qualify, but it won't be easy against this Kosovo team, that only lost once (against England) in more than 2 years. A draw means Czech Republic still has one point advantage over Kosovo and they will travel to their showdown in last round against poor Bulgaria. If Kosovo loses, they are out, so I think they will take very cautious approach, just park the bus and pray for a win in last round against then most likely already qualified England, while hoping for some pride from bulgarian side to not lose against in last home match against Czech Republic. I see a very tactical game, where both teams put their emphasis on just not to lose.

Two goals in 88th and 90th minute in Darmstadt ruined the day a bit, but at least didn't lose more. There was even a fourth goal scored in Darmstadt, so it was 3 goals in 6 minutes, crazy.

Bank: 423,21 Euro
W/L: 8-18
Yield: -33,91%

#27 l GER2 l Karlsruhe - Aue l under 2,5 l 2,13 l 8,46 Euro l Dafabet
Aue has slowed down a bit after a fantastic start of the season. They are usually very defensive-minded, especially on away games. They will be satisfied with a draw here and won't push for 3 points. Karlsruhe has had some crazy games this season, but they are normally not playing very offensively as well and like to sit back. I expect a boring game with a 1-1 draw in the end.