Topic: The pain of playing unders in Football - page 3. (Read 779 times)

It probably doesn't make any sense at all from a statistical point of view tbh. I don't put too much emphasis on statistics normally though; more going with what I see on the pitch and doing my own analysis. There is teams that are under teams in my book, but have been overish a lot this season, so I expect these teams to slow down with the overs and get to 50/50 with over/under.
These teams are: Mainz, Hertha, Freiburg, Köln, Augsburg, Düsseldorf, Schalke, Paderborn (Paderborn is over-team normally, but don't belong in GER1 quality-wise). Frankfurt is 9-1, Dortmund 9-2, Leipzg 8-3 - a bit too much as well, so expect them to go maybe 50/50 from now on.

So, thats already 60% of teams for which I expect a more underish tendency in the upcoming weeks. Now I could just pick the games with these teams involved, but it's only a few games, where one of these teams is not involved, so why not play them all.

I am only using tiny stakes here to get used to playing unders, since I think there is often value in under odds as I explained in the opening post. Till now, can't say that I was very successful. Probably poor pick selection, maybe just bad timing, who knows. But to get a feel for it, this has been very valuable so far for me. I didn't expect to make huge gains right from the get-go. The positive things is, that I am more relaxed now, when watching a football match and having a bet on the under. So this is already an improvement But could also get worse again when I start to stake more on unders

How does this make sense? Ok, I get it that 71.9% is above expectations and more than last season. But that doesn't mean that future games will be mostly unders in order to lower this percentage. I checked some stats and average number of goals per match fluctuates quite a lot from season to season so maybe 2019/2020 will simply be full of goals.

Bundesliga stats from SoccerSTATS:

Hard business this under business Lots of matches go way over.

Bank: 420,52 Euro
W/L: 6-16
Yield: -41,02%

In GER1 there is now 71,9% of games going over and 28,1% going under since the start of the season. Insane numbers and I doubt this will continue. So I will play every game in GER1 under from now on without explanation.

In GER2 there have been 51,3% of games going over and 48,7% going under, so pretty balanced.

#23 l GER2 l Darmstadt - Regensburg l under 2,5 l 2,23 l 8,41 Euro l SBO
Under-team against over-team. Darmstadt is very limited offensively and Regensburg isn't the team that can easily score against a well organised defensive-minded team. Last season both matches ended 1-1 and I expect a similar result for tomorrow.

#24 l GER1 l Mönchengladbach - Werder l under 2,5 l 2,74 l 8,24 Euro l Pinnacle
#25 l GER1 l Wolfsburg - Leverkusen l under 2,5 l 2,11 l 8,08 Euro l SBO
#26 l GER1 l Freiburg - Frankfurt l under 2,5 l 2,31 l 7,92 Euro l Pinnacle

No sweat here, 1-0.

Bank: 433,96 Euro
W/L: 5-13
Yield: -41,25%

Lots of matches on Saturday of course, lets see, if we can make some bucks with those hated unders.

#19 l GER2 l Sandhausen - Fürth l under 2,5 l 1,90 l 8,68 Euro l SBO
Sandhausen is the most underish team in GER2. If possible, they would probably sign a 0-0 pre-match every time. Just very ugly and boring football, 2-10 over/under this season. Fürth plays more under than over as well. They have a few good offensive players, but still only score 1,16 goals per game. H2H @Sandhausen is also in huge favour of the under - only one over in 7 games played, last two matches finished 0-0 each, which is also a very likely result this time. Odds for Fürth win are pretty high btw; if there is a winner, it should be Fürth, so pricing them at 3,35 (Pinnacle) is wrong imo and gives good value.

#20 l GER2 l Osnabrück - Stuttgart l under 2,5 l 2,38 l 8,51 Euro l Pinnacle
After failing to score for four consecutive games, Osnabrück finally broke the spell and put three into the net last round in Regensburg, but don't let that fool you. They are struggling a lot offensively, the midfielders are not very creative, but their defense is fine. Stuttgart has some off-days defensively from time to time, but this Osnabrück team won't give them too many headaches. Lets see, if Stuttgart can score three here.

#21 l GER1 l Hertha - Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,51 l 8,34 Euro l Pinnacle
The stats point to a clear over here. Combined these two teams played 15-5 over/under this season in Bundesliga and 4-0 in cup matches. H2H has tons of goals too with results like 5-0 / 2-6 / 2-3 / 1-4. And still I like the under with these odds in this spot. Hertha is struggling lately and Leipzig was in Russia mid-week for their CL match and had a lot of matches recently anyway and some fatigue is to be expected. So I am hoping that Leipzig tries to get the three points with minimal effort here, a draw wouldn't be the end of the world for them too.

#22 l GER1 l Bayern - Dortmund l under 3,5 l 1,81 l 8,17 Euro l Dafabet
Bayern didn't convince me against Olympiacos. They were pretty toothless and would have gotten into some more trouble against stronger opposition, but Oly just came for a 0-0 and later even continued defending a 0-1, showing no offensive efforts whatsoever. Bayern will still look for defensive stability first and Dortmund often has performed poorly when travelling to Munich. So I don't see some goalfest here, but it can happen of course.

A bit unlucky with the under in Mönchengladbach, 2-1 was scored in 95th minute only The unders often look good until half-time, but always go over in second half. Looks good for some trading.

Bank: 422,73 Euro
W/L: 4-13
Yield: -50,96%

#18 l GER2 l Dresden - Wehen l under 2,5 l 2,33 l 8,45 Euro l SBO
As I wrote earlier, Wehen is taking a more defensive approach lately and it has paid off so far. Dresden, apart from the cup match in Berlin, has huge trouble scoring, while doing pretty good defensively. Two poor teams with troubles scoring, but also not conceding a lot in a very important match are good ingredients for under here. Good value from my point of view.

The other two matches in GER1 & GER2 look overish, so no bets there.

Two in a row. Feels like Christmas being early. Maybe I can put together some streak

Bank: 440,16 Euro
W/L: 4-11
Yield: -44,59%

#16 l UEL l Möchengladbach - Roma l under 2,5 l 2,27 l 8,80 Euro l Pinnacle
Mönchengladbach are leading the table in Bundesliga, but in UEL they have been pretty poor so far with 0-2-1. Not sure, if they are THAT interested in UEL as it always means a distraction for the main goal of doing good in domestic league. Mönchengladbach has some injury woes, especially upfront, where Plea, Thuram and Embolo are injured. Embolo will be sidelined, while Thuram and Plea could see limited time on the pitch, but won’t be at 100%. Rome is probably satisfied with a draw here and won’t push relentlessly. So I see good value in these odds.

#17 l UEL l Wolfsburg - Gent l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 8,63 Euro l Pinnacle
Wolfsburg were a bit shaky in their last matches. Their opponents were able to score 9 on them in the last two matches, which is very unusual. It has to be noted though, that those goals came from powerhouses Dortmund and Leipzig – Gent is not in that category. So for today I think Wolfsburg wants to find some defensive stability again and keep a clean sheet. They are no goal scoring machine, so lets see, if they can make this game an over on their own.

In general under is very risky. The most combinations of teams prove that the matches are going to end up with an over.
Only in the case where both teams are of bad quality and they dont have strong attackers can end up in under.

Under 3.5 is also risky. Remember Liverpool vs Arsenal game? You wouldn't have expected such numbers of goals. I would rather bet on half time goals or bet under 2.5 against a weak team.

Two losers again. Valencia under looked rather good for a long time, but Lille just imploded in the latter stages.

Bank: 423,12 Euro
W/L: 2-11
Yield: -65,46%

I like two unders from todays CL matches.

#14 l UCL l Bayern - Olympiacos l Olympiacos under 0,5 l 2,22 l 8,46 Euro l Pinnacle
Slightly different bet this time, but I like it very much. Bayern sacked Kovac and Flick has taken over as interim coach. Bayern are sitting comfortably at the top of the table in their group and their main goal in the next few games is to play more organized and get some stability in defense (though they are missing Hernandez and Süle). Bayern won't go all out here and open space for Olympiacos - they have the big match against in Dortmund in mind, so after having probably a 2-0 lead, they will sit back and save their energies. Olympiacos will have a hard time scoring here.

#15 l UCL l Atalanta - ManCity l under 3,5 l 1,81 l 8,29 Euro l Pinnacle
ManCity is in the same situation as Bayern, not form-wise, but table-wise. They will take first place in this extremely weak group. And they have bigger things coming up in the next days, e.g. playing Liverpool on Sunday. So they won't waste any energy here, probably rotating a bit. We saw yesterday with Liverpool what happens then. ManCity will want to control the game, maybe take the lead and then sit back to get back to UK asap and prepare for Liverpool. They might be even satisfied with a draw here, a loss won't do no harm as well in the end.

I bet on under sometimes but it depends on the teams who are playing. If they are evenly match probably they cant score that much if both teams defense is good. Or both teams are not really good I bet under too but if a strong team versus weak team not a chance I will go over.

Agreed with the poster who said unders for goals in any league is very risky.
I barely bet on german league games but most of the time I see over 2 goals scored by each team every time.

I would say skip German leagues to go under 2.5 goals. German and for example dutch leagues are known for lots of goals.
I sometimes like to gamble unders as well but mostly Italian, Spanish and French leagues.

I avoid gambling on unders in football.
In my opinion, there is not any point in betting for an under. It is not fan at all and you get stressed everytime a team tries to score a goal. Football is about watching a lot of goals scored in a match and not the opposite.

Found another winner here. Was pretty comfortable as Wehen scored the equalizer only in injury time. Hamburg could have scored a dozen here, but were just too pathetic to put the ball over the line.

Bank: 440,57 Euro
W/L: 2-9
Yield: -59,43%

Adding two matches from Champions League here:
 
#12 l UCL l Dortmund – Inter l under 2,5 l 2,07 l 8,81 Euro l Pinnacle
I expect Inter to play ultra-defensively. All they want is probably  a draw here. If they happen to lose, they should take care not losing the H2H as it might be important in the end. Dortmund isn’t convincing me lately and I expect thm to have a hard time scoring here.

#13 l UCL l Valencia – Lille l under 2,5 l 1,83 l 8,64 l Pinnacle
Very important match for both. While Valencia could eventually live with a draw, Lille needs to win here badly to have any hope for promotion to the Playoffs. Problem is, they are probably too weak to get anything going in Mestalla and opening a shootout with the hosts might not be a good idea. Both teams weren’t very successful in finding the back of the net of their opponents in this years CL campaign scoring only 2 goals each so far. Expecting both teams to take a more careful approach at first with the game being more open the closer we get to the final whistle, but that may be too late for 3+ goals.

That would mean that it's un-risky to take over 2,5 in these kind of games, no ? Wonder why everyone is still going to work every day.


Not forcing myself, but sticking with under 2,5 mainly and you won't find lots of odds below 2,00 for under 2,5 in german leagues


Well, found at least one under this time Lots of goals were scored in GER1+GER2 yesterday - only 2 unders in 9 games with an average of 3,89 goals per game.

Bank: 427,16 Euro
W/L: 1-9
Yield: -79,64%

Only one under for today that I like out of 5 matches:

#11 l GER2 l Wehen - Hamburg l under 2,5 l 2,57 l 8,54 Euro l Pinnacle

Wehen promoted this season and learned that their offensive-minded playing style won't work in this league. So they switched to a more defensive approach. And it paid off, they are 2-2-0 since then with 1-3 over/under. Last two matches finished 0-0. I don't think they will score today against powerhouse Hamburg. If Hamburg manages to score 3 then is to be seen.

Doing parlays with smaller odds is not the best because it only takes one to lose everything.  Straight bets is always better even if OP is mostly getting losses and only wins like 1-3 times at least he's winning some of it back while on parlays this isn't always possible unless he always win most of his leg then cashes out those parlays before the losing leg comes in. I'm guessing OP is forcing himself to take odds above 2 because it only takes a 50% win rate to recover while on lower odds you'll need to go slightly above since you're getting less. 

It's too risky to take under 2.5 in big matches especially if a strong team against a weak team will make a lot of goals. Why not take under 3.5/3 is a little safe even though the odds are smaller between @1.3-1.5 and it would be better if you make a parlay.

3-3, I guess even a monkey could do better, unders just suck big time

Bank: 451,97 Euro
W/L: 0-5
Yield: -100%

But I have to get to 100 bets, lets see how long it takes until I find a winner.

#6 l GER2 l Aue - Heidenheim l under 2,5 l 2,06 l 9,04 Euro l SBO
#7 l GER2 l Fürth - Darmstadt l under 2,5 l 2,00 l 8,86 Euro l SBO
#8 l GER2 l St. Pauli - Karlsruhe l under 2,5 l 2,19 l 8,68 Euro l SBO

Going with under in all GER2 matches on Saturday as all those teams are underish teams in my book (Aue is pretty overish this season, but normally they are clear under team). Often times when two underish teams meet, there is some kind of goal festival, hope this is not the case tomorrow.

For GER1, I took these unders:

#9 l GER1 l Leverkusen - Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,73 l 8,51 Euro l Pinnacle
I wouldn't be surprised to see loads of goals here, but those under odds are very good. Gladbach on away games has a tendency for unders and Leverkusen wasn't very sharp offensively lately.

#10 l GER1 l Frankfurt - Bayern l under 3,5 l 2,03 l 8,34 Euro l SBO
Bayern isn't super confident at the moment, they won the last 3 games, but played poorly. There weren't a lot of matches going over 3,5 when Bayern visited Frankfurt in recent years and I don't see a lot of goals this year as well.

It all comes down the league and the team and their current form. I usually focus on moneyline bets since I achieved maximum success with them, but I have achieved limited success with various prop bets including unders by doing my research.

Example : https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_leagues_ordered_by_number_of_goals.php

I love this site and I highly recommend it to anyone searching for soccer statistics.