The paradox of arbitrage betting (and how to make money on it) - page 3.

Japinat

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I presume you mean sports betting, right?

Quote from: Boristhecat on March 09, 2022, 07:30:20 AM

~snip~
But there is a problem that bookmakers (most of them) prohibit arbitrage bets and most likely exchange information about the players who make them in order to get rid of them later. Is there a solution to this problem?

There's no way they will know that you are doing arbitrage betting if you are doing it on two different sites.
Arbitrage betting in the first place is not illegal, so why would the bookmakers or sportsbooks care about that?

It's an opportunity, but a rare opportunity as it's not easy to find it and I find it very difficult that's why I didn't pursue that kind of betting.

Also, most sportsbooks (crypto sportsbooks) promote anonymous betting, so how would they know that you are the same person who bet on the other site?

madnessteat

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Quote from: Boristhecat on March 09, 2022, 07:57:42 AM

Quote from: madnessteat on March 09, 2022, 07:34:13 AM

I've never been involved in arbitrage betting, but what prevents you from using the account of a friend or distant relative with a different surname to participate in betting on the second site. As I understand it, they obviously will not be able to trace that you are engaged in arbitrage if you make bets under different IP addresses using VPN.

Big data. At a distance of 100-500 bets, but in fact earlier, you will be calculated and get a ban on both accounts even if you use different devices, VPNs, or even "work" together with someone real from another country. In addition, I'm not saying that all other methods are bad, I just "invented" (i think I'm not the first here) another way.

I love math paradoxes and I find this one very interesting - you make an arbitrage bet but it's not really arbitrage (you don't bet on two mutually exclusive events) but still make a profit.

If your strategy works and you're worried about losing money if your account is banned you can use multiple accounts and constantly look for new sites to work on. I heard a story once that one enterprising guy registered a lot of his fellow villagers in one of the testnet and earned very well)

Mauser

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Quote from: Boristhecat on March 09, 2022, 07:30:20 AM

Conclusion: if you find an opportunity to make an arbitrage bet, then you can bet only on one of the outcomes and on average you will still be in the black plus avoid problems with ToS of bookmakers.

This would be one solution to avoid being flagged as an arbitrage gambler, but you are still taking risks here. If the outcome you bet on didn't come then you lost your money. Choosing the bookie that offers the best odds for your bet is a good idea and will make you a lot more money in the long run. The thing with arbitrage bets is that they are usually risk free with a much smaller payout. The risk free bet enables you to bet a lot of your money on it as there is no real risk of losing your money. How about you look for a partner to the trades? If your friend bets one leg of the arbitrage and you bet the other than there shouldn't be an issue with the TOS. I tried myself to look for such arbitrage bets in the past but couldn't really find any. Are you looking at not so popular sports and less frequent matches?

AicecreaME

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Quote from: Boristhecat on March 09, 2022, 07:30:20 AM

For example, let's take the simplest case when we have the opportunity to make an arbitrage bet and get money without risking anything:
There are two outcomes of the event: 1 and 2, and let's say that at bookmaker A we can bet on outcome 1 with odds of 2.05, and at bookmaker B we can bet with the same odds on outcome 2.

It turns out that if we make two bets (for example 100$) on both events, we will get a guaranteed profit:

100x2.05 - 200 = 5$ net profit from a bet of $200

100x2.05 - either bet on event 1 or bet on event 2 wins
200 - money spent to place both bets

But there is a problem that bookmakers (most of them) prohibit arbitrage bets and most likely exchange information about the players who make them in order to get rid of them later. Is there a solution to this problem?

I think yes: the probability that of the two events 1 and 2 the first or the second will happen is the same. This means that if we bet only on event 1 (or 2) we will (on average) either win $105 or lose $100.

(105 - 100)/2 = 2.5 $ net profit from a bet of $100

Conclusion: if you find an opportunity to make an arbitrage bet, then you can bet only on one of the outcomes and on average you will still be in the black plus avoid problems with ToS of bookmakers.

This is what some people do to achieve a somewhat sureball win in betting. Putting your bets on both teams will still make you a profit even a little amount because the bet you won will be the bet you made on the other side. The only bonus is the remainder apart from the base bet. This is preferred by some, while others do not because of the complications of things. Personally, I wouldn't try arbitrage betting. I would rather bet on a single team that I researched and trust upon to avoid the complexity. After all, high risk, high reward. Although this is just my personal perspective because I believe in risking what I can only afford to lose. I do not bet and invest beyond what I'm scared of losing. This is to ensure myself that I won't have regrets later on and I will still have something left if ever worse things happen. If you want this kind of way as an extra profit, you could do this. But still do it with caution because everything has its costs.

Boristhecat

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Quote from: madnessteat on March 09, 2022, 07:34:13 AM

I've never been involved in arbitrage betting, but what prevents you from using the account of a friend or distant relative with a different surname to participate in betting on the second site. As I understand it, they obviously will not be able to trace that you are engaged in arbitrage if you make bets under different IP addresses using VPN.

Big data. At a distance of 100-500 bets, but in fact earlier, you will be calculated and get a ban on both accounts even if you use different devices, VPNs, or even "work" together with someone real from another country. In addition, I'm not saying that all other methods are bad, I just "invented" (i think I'm not the first here) another way.

I love math paradoxes and I find this one very interesting - you make an arbitrage bet but it's not really arbitrage (you don't bet on two mutually exclusive events) but still make a profit.

Oshosondy

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Gamble responsibly

I prefer to bet on sport, most especially football where arbitrage betting or what you call it is not possible. If you take win for match bet A and you take win for match bet B, if the end result is draw, the person will both lose on both matches and have minimum losses. I am not a person that take betting special, I bet on what I can afford to lose and either win or lose. I will prefer to go for a single bet rathe than complicating the whole thing.

madnessteat

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I've never been involved in arbitrage betting, but what prevents you from using the account of a friend or distant relative with a different surname to participate in betting on the second site. As I understand it, they obviously will not be able to trace that you are engaged in arbitrage if you make bets under different IP addresses using VPN. Or if using VPN is forbidden by the rules to involve your friend for betting.

Boristhecat

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For example, let's take the simplest case when we have the opportunity to make an arbitrage bet and get money without risking anything:
There are two outcomes of the event: 1 and 2, and let's say that at bookmaker A we can bet on outcome 1 with odds of 2.05, and at bookmaker B we can bet with the same odds on outcome 2.

It turns out that if we make two bets (for example 100$) on both events, we will get a guaranteed profit:

100x2.05 - 200 = 5$ net profit from a bet of $200

100x2.05 - either bet on event 1 or bet on event 2 wins
200 - money spent to place both bets

But there is a problem that bookmakers (most of them) prohibit arbitrage bets and most likely exchange information about the players who make them in order to get rid of them later. Is there a solution to this problem?

I think yes: the probability that of the two events 1 and 2 the first or the second will happen is the same. This means that if we bet only on event 1 (or 2) we will (on average) either win $105 or lose $100.

(105 - 100)/2 = 2.5 $ net profit from a bet of $100

Conclusion: if you find an opportunity to make an arbitrage bet, then you can bet only on one of the outcomes and on average you will still be in the black plus avoid problems with ToS of bookmakers.

Topic: The paradox of arbitrage betting (and how to make money on it) - page 3. (Read 430 times)