Topic: The psychology of a HODLer - page 3. (Read 5915 times)

like i said, it's a religion.

Here's another tangent on holder psychology:

What is this slave mentality? The governments are not our parents giving us "allowances", they exist to serve the people and they're doing a damn bad job these days. It's time to separate money and state!

   ________
  |        |
  |        |
   \      /
    |    |___________________________
    |    |                           |
    |    |___________________________|
    |    |
   /      \
  |        |  <---- hammer
  |________|

<== THWACK! ==>
     ____
      ||   
      ||
      ||      <---- nail
      ||
      ||
      \/

Then get the fuck out of here then. Do you really think you are saving anyone? Everyone here knows that they can win or lose. It's idiot trolls like you that have turned this forum into a Bitcoin Ghetto.

This is critical in understanding the psychology of the holder. Greed and fear are reversed. Bitcoin becomes "the money" and fiat "the investment". Selling is actually driven by greed and not fear since it is done with the objective of actually acquiring more bitcoin by engaging in a buy fiat low sell fiat high strategy that more often than not can fail.

Hi, long time hodler here (I did sell and spend BTC over the last 3 years, but had I never sold or spent any, I'd have only 50% more than I have now... I consider that pretty stubborn tight hodling. I held on all the way from $32 to $1.96 or whatever it was in late 2011, even buying more on the way down. Of course, had I sold and bought back in at the right times I would now have 10,000% or more than what I have now)

I'll try to explain my psychology... can't speak for every hodler out there:

First, let's begin by explaining that I think crypot is better money that fiat. I had gotten into Bitcoin because it was technically fascinating to me. Then I learned a bit about money in general and become a sound money advocate. I think this might be a key difference between you (let's make that some hypothetical you) and me: you "think in fiat", I "think in BTC". I try to increase my crypto-stash, you try to make a fiat-profit. You go to sleep with fiat, I go to sleep with BTC. You can't understand how people can hold on to BTC during a month-long bear-market, I can't understand how people can "wait for the next dip" in BTC bull markets.

Furthermore: greed had gotten the better of me at times (during 2012 and 2013 mainly) and I saw people increase their BTC-stash by large percentages by selling high and buying low, so I tried that in order to acquire more BTC. I failed miserably because the market got away from me repeatedly. The attempt failed more often than not (it was mostly a bull market after all, so what do you expect given a non-experienced trader like me). Those experiences stuck with me and I have decided that holding is the best strategy for me (and selling a little bit for fiat/metal at times in order to not have to hear "see, I told you so, you should've sold" from friends and also of course because of fear).

Also: I think I'm quite a bit more relaxed than you picture the average hodler to be: Bitcoin could go to 0 and I'd still have a good life after that. I'd be quite sad and angry for a while for sure (depending on the circumstances, of course), but I'd be able to get on with my life, both financially and psychologically.

About that "religious devotion": I really do think crypto will change (is already changing) the world for the better. You might call that naive or romantic or whatnot, but I do believe that. And believe me: I ponder the dangers crypto and bitcoin (might) face every day and reassess my views on a regular basis, trying to keep an open mind. There have indeed been times when I thought some bitcoin 2.0 alt could steal the show and I'm not ruling it out 100% (would it be so bad? After all it would be way better than bitcoin!). My belief that BTC will remain the main carrier of value in the crypto space and the most secure blockchain for quite a while has lately been reinforced, though. Even to the point where I sold 1/3rd of my alts (mainly LTC, PPC) last week, something I had only once done before. So I don't "discard any possibilities" and "say stuff to myself". I try to assess reality and make projections... with varying success, of course.

;tldr: It's not desperation or mania, it's just a different (possibly wrong) assessment of reality and projection of the future.

A Bitcoin Prayer
Our Satoshi, who art in hiding
Hallowed be thy name
Thy protocol done
Wallets will come
On clients as they are on paper
Give us this day our daily Bitcoin
And forgive us our speculation
As we forgive those who use silk road
And lead us not into no confirmation
But deliver us from fiat
For thine is the blockchain, the power and the glory
For ever and ever

Anon
[/quote]

Amen

A Bitcoin Prayer
Our Satoshi, who art in hiding
Hallowed be thy name
Thy protocol done
Wallets will come
On clients as they are on paper
Give us this day our daily Bitcoin
And forgive us our speculation
As we forgive those who use silk road
And lead us not into no confirmation
But deliver us from fiat
For thine is the blockchain, the power and the glory
For ever and ever

Anon

Take a look at the holders and more often than not their activity level on his forum is in the 500+ range. This is an indicator that they have been with Bitcoin since early 2012 or 2011 and in some cases 2010 or even 2009. This means they initially got into Bitcoin in the single digits or below in some cases cents or even fraction of a cent.

I suspect in addition most of the following is true:
They have managed to keep a significant portion of their initial bitcoin, other wise they would not still be around.
They have sold the rest at a sizeable profit in fiat terms but at prices far below the current market, low double digits, single digits, even below etc, and deeply regret having done so.
They have more than taken out their initial fiat investment.
They have sizeable unrealised capital gains in bitcoin that would trigger a very ugly tax bill should they sell. The depends on the jurisdiction, but would require a drop in the market in many cases over 30% just to break even.
They have been through multiple bit bull and bit bear markets.
Bitcoin may account for a very significant portion if not the majority of their net worth.
They have done their research and believe there is a very high likelihood that bitcoin will appreciate by a few orders of magnitude higher in the coming years.
They have been exposed to one or more of the following MTGox, Bitcoinica, pirateat40, another failed exchange, wallet service etc. They may have escaped unscathed or suffered a loss. This will lead to an increase fear of trusting their BTC to any exchange.  
They can sleep better, and have lower blood pressure, being long in a bear market than short in a bull market.  

All of this leads to a very high perceived risk of selling vs the possible gain of buying back at a much lower price. So the safe strategy is HOLD.

No, this is an incorrect opinion. the value of 400$ per btc is derived from having that btc + hodling on to those btc for couple of years. So unless you actually held that coins all that time and didn't sell or lose, then yes, they'd be worth that much. But the fact is, that it is very hard to just hold and not sell when the price grows to like $30 per coin

Also, at the time of the loss, $2500 would be able to buy back every coin that he lost and then some. So he did not lose $300k, he lost *potential* to maybe have them several years later, that is different. You just lost this potential today, because you didn't sell your house and didn't buy cheap coins at $300 - see, you just lost millions!

$10 dollar coins, wow.  Where was I lol.  Do you guys think I am too late to profit off bitcoin.  I always read about the older investors getting really cheap coins.  What about a newb like me, is the big time profiting over?

I bought another 250btc at that time though to cover my loss. And Zhou Tong compensated me with 75btc.
I stopped worrying about the $7000 a long time ago (if you can call 2 years a long time).

In my opinion he lost 250(btc)x430=$__

Saying that he lost $2500 because he bought at $10 is kinda like saying bill gates is broke cause it's a time question of when the dollar collapse(Yes, I do realize he's diversifying, it's not literally..)

these were $10 coins, so $7000 is a much bigger loss. I gambled away like 500 back then; having 200 at some stupid site like bitcoinica was common.

Wow 250 btc.

I've held onto my Bitcoins through all this (again)
I'm just not willing to put then on an exchange - I lost $7000 and 250btc when Bitcoinica collapsed. I learnt my lesson.
I have my Bitcoins now and they are mine.

A bitcoin in the hand is worth two in the exchange.

isn't this a religious statement as well?

No you weren't, you were looking to pick an argument like a child. No one looking for answers uses a passive aggressive tone with the person from whom they're seeking answers.

Hodlers are long.

Ok I am sure you aren't really looking for an answer, but I'll answer anyway, pretending you actually want to know. Bitcoin is in no situation - in fact, it is stronger than ever, th network is growing at an amazing rate, bad exchange got weeded out, we have serious coverage in respectable media, and businesses are multiplying by the day. It was designed to work despite world-wide ban, so some countries taking a hostile approach is only a minor delay on the way to domination. Instead of 5 years it will take 6, big deal.

With that in mind, consider that owning bitcoin is the same as having some stock in this booming industry. Why would you sell when the fundamentals are greater than ever and the price is bottoming out at 25% of the all time high? Of course, you might for a short-term speculation or if you don't see the fundamentals (they are not measurable by the standards you are used to, and it is actually hard to see the real potential bitcoin network has at this point - not everyone is a visionary, some people need to be shown the end result application; thing is, when it will be available, the price would be not in three or four, but at least five digit range - because when everyone "gets it", demand would be way higher than when only a few understand).

So, tldr answer - we hold because we *know* bitcoin is just now raising from it's infant years. Stronger than ever. Short-term price is of no importance, unless you want to play the roulette, then it's fine, just don't try to judge those who see beyond 5-minute ticker. Right now (everything below $600) is a great buying opportunity, in 2015 people would brag that they bought bitcoins in three digits, mark my words.