The REAL bubbles - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Walsoraj

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 25, 2013, 11:53:04 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on August 25, 2013, 09:22:25 AM

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1

nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.

-a parable, by sir Walz

¹see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back.

lulz

ps, economy must grow. loans must grow to make possible. difficulty in repayment will scale with increasing loans.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Walsoraj on August 25, 2013, 09:22:25 AM

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1

nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.

-a parable, by sir Walz

¹see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back. Compound interest stops compounding in case of a default or in case of a remittance.

Walsoraj

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Ultranode

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1

nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.

-a parable, by sir Walz

¹see: the magic of compound interest

S3052

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 24, 2013, 02:27:14 PM

Quote from: S3052 on August 23, 2013, 04:50:44 AM

Quote from: deadgiveaway on August 22, 2013, 03:23:56 AM

Quote from: S3052 on August 17, 2013, 02:50:59 AM

Quote from: vokain on August 17, 2013, 02:49:14 AM

Bubbles are artificial Wink

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

That's exactly the point.
And even if all central banks have as number one priority to keep the stock market bubble alive, they can't prevent the bubble from popping big time eventually.
And it will be very nasty.

Dow jones 400 we are coming.

That's like saying 80s fuel prices are coming back. They're not.
The debt based money supply has as much to do with the stock market as it has with any other sector.

The solution is simple: Periodic remittance of loans, be it in the private sector or the financial sector. And this is happening all the time, cyprus was just one of the more visible ones.
This is something no Libertairan Doomsday Cheerleader is willing to admit: The system actually has mechanisms which can keep it sustainable. You just can't profit from it individually.

That is your very valid opinion.

I agree to disagree with you.

The system that they have build is not sustainable and will burst dramatically in the next years.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: S3052 on August 23, 2013, 04:50:44 AM

Quote from: deadgiveaway on August 22, 2013, 03:23:56 AM

Quote from: S3052 on August 17, 2013, 02:50:59 AM

Quote from: vokain on August 17, 2013, 02:49:14 AM

Bubbles are artificial Wink

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

That's exactly the point.
And even if all central banks have as number one priority to keep the stock market bubble alive, they can't prevent the bubble from popping big time eventually.
And it will be very nasty.

Dow jones 400 we are coming.

That's like saying 80s fuel prices are coming back. They're not.
The debt based money supply has as much to do with the stock market as it has with any other sector.

The solution is simple: Periodic remittance of loans, be it in the private sector or the financial sector. And this is happening all the time, cyprus was just one of the more visible ones.
This is something no Libertairan Doomsday Cheerleader is willing to admit: The system actually has mechanisms which can keep it sustainable. You just can't profit from it individually.

S3052

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Quote from: deadgiveaway on August 22, 2013, 03:23:56 AM

Quote from: S3052 on August 17, 2013, 02:50:59 AM

Quote from: vokain on August 17, 2013, 02:49:14 AM

Bubbles are artificial Wink

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

That's exactly the point.
And even if all central banks have as number one priority to keep the stock market bubble alive, they can't prevent the bubble from popping big time eventually.
And it will be very nasty.

Dow jones 400 we are coming.

sukiho

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wrong post, but since Im here and the topic is bubbles I will speculate that we are at the start of the next one now

deadgiveaway

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Quote from: S3052 on August 17, 2013, 02:50:59 AM

Quote from: vokain on August 17, 2013, 02:49:14 AM

Bubbles are artificial Wink

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

xxjs

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

If you think that 13 in jan was on the base and 130 in july also, that means the parameters for the exponential baseline is 10x per half year, which means 100 x per year. Sounds a bit too high. 10x per year will still take us to world domination rather quickly. That means 130 by year end.

sgbett

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The thing about april 2013.. its never gone anywhere near back to baseline, let alone below. Sure everyone and their uncle saw the exponential rise was unsustainable, but back out a year and the original long term trend seems to be solid.

The low after the ATH was $50?

Does that mean it was only in bubble territory around mid march when we hit $50 for the first time, or maybe even higher.

That would imply that the push from $12 at the backend of last year was fairly legit growth.

I'm about as permabull as you can get but even i cashed out a little on the way up to $200+ cos it seemed overblown.

I think we have reverted, and the past few weeks growth are a resumption of that first phase of growth that took us past the previous ATH of ~$30 not rushing to buy more. Just happy to be a part of it.

As ever it all depends on whether the protocol fails. If it doesn't then all these peaks and troughs are just going to end up looking like the normal gyrations of a typical growth stock in its early days. See you at $1m guys Wink

xxjs

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...or I should say, the baseline is also modified by the long time speculators.

xxjs

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Bubbles can easily exist, but on a baseline of an exponential appreciation, based on the sum of the holding preferences of all users. You can't really decide where that baseline is, but you can have some assumption. Then when the speculators get ahead of themselves there is a rise, followed by a slump that can go under the baseline. In the long run, at least before the user base starts to saturate, it will deviate from the baseline only in short lived bubbles (or antibubbles (what is an antibubble)).

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: notme on August 20, 2013, 08:31:23 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 20, 2013, 07:34:21 PM

Quote from: S3052 on August 20, 2013, 04:20:27 PM

Basically, a bubble is a irrational, exuberant rise and a crash to where it started.

Bitcoin instead started at 0.01-0.06 $ and is still 1,000 - 10,000x higher today.

So in your opinion a bubble is only a bubble after it popped? In common sense that's a contradiction.

A bubble is only confirmed to be a bubble after it has popped. Labeling it a bubble before it meets the definition of bubble is premature.

Interesting, I guess the pirate ponzi wasn't a ponzi until it collapsed either.

notme

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 20, 2013, 07:34:21 PM

Quote from: S3052 on August 20, 2013, 04:20:27 PM

Basically, a bubble is a irrational, exuberant rise and a crash to where it started.

Bitcoin instead started at 0.01-0.06 $ and is still 1,000 - 10,000x higher today.

So in your opinion a bubble is only a bubble after it popped? In common sense that's a contradiction.

A bubble is only confirmed to be a bubble after it has popped. Labeling it a bubble before it meets the definition of bubble is premature.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: S3052 on August 20, 2013, 04:20:27 PM

Basically, a bubble is a irrational, exuberant rise and a crash to where it started.

Bitcoin instead started at 0.01-0.06 $ and is still 1,000 - 10,000x higher today.

So in your opinion a bubble is only a bubble after it popped? In common sense that's a contradiction.

ArticMine

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Quote from: Walsoraj on August 20, 2013, 05:48:12 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on August 20, 2013, 05:45:24 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on August 20, 2013, 04:38:05 PM

i wonder where bitcoin would be if there were no difficulties extracting fiat from Gox? do you think charts showing the April and 2011 crashes would overlap better?

Which 2011 "crash"? The one from the peak in February 2011 or the one from the peak in June 2011? I actually believe April 2013 chart is a better fit to the February 2011 one.

june

To answer this question lets compare the June 2011 market on MTGox to the April 2013 market on an exchange that is not only not having withdrawal problems but may have some minor deposit issues Virtex in Canada. See this thread https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/whats-going-on-with-cavirtex-89-cad-per-btc-273286

MT Gox May - October 2011: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-05-01zeg2011-10-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Virtex February 22 - August 21 2013: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/virtexCAD#rg180zczsg2013-02-22zeg2013-08-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

This market is very different from the aftermath of the 2011 June crash. It may have more in common with the aftermath of the February 2011 crash. As for the impact of the MTGox withdrawal problems it may turn out to temporally depress the price on other exchanges in an otherwise bullish recovery.

Walsoraj

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Ultranode

Quote from: ArticMine on August 20, 2013, 05:45:24 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on August 20, 2013, 04:38:05 PM

i wonder where bitcoin would be if there were no difficulties extracting fiat from Gox? do you think charts showing the April and 2011 crashes would overlap better?

Which 2011 "crash"? The one from the peak in February 2011 or the one from the peak in June 2011? I actually believe April 2013 chart is a better fit to the February 2011 one.

june

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: Walsoraj on August 20, 2013, 04:38:05 PM

i wonder where bitcoin would be if there were no difficulties extracting fiat from Gox? do you think charts showing the April and 2011 crashes would overlap better?

Which 2011 "crash"? The one from the peak in February 2011 or the one from the peak in June 2011? I actually believe April 2013 chart is a better fit to the February 2011 one.

Walsoraj

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Ultranode

i wonder where bitcoin would be if there were no difficulties extracting fiat from Gox? do you think charts showing the April and 2011 crashes would overlap better?

S3052

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 20, 2013, 12:47:19 PM

Quote from: S3052 on August 20, 2013, 12:39:46 PM

Quote from: polarhei on August 20, 2013, 09:28:05 AM

There is currently not enough evidence to point bitcoin is in bubble as there are many buyers, not only the mtgox, but may be dangerous as the market is not fully ready to use mathematical being to count.

I currently notice three major players, two in my place and the btc-e. The btc-e has been doing better than gox at the panic time.

It does not really look like a bubble.

You still haven't told us how you think a bubble does look like.

ok. here we go:

Tulip bubble

Japan housing bubble

South sea stock

Basically, a bubble is a irrational, exuberant rise and a crash to where it started.

Bitcoin instead started at 0.01-0.06 $ and is still 1,000 - 10,000x higher today.

Topic: The REAL bubbles - page 2. (Read 7004 times)