Topic: The REAL bubbles - page 3. (Read 7004 times)

You still haven't told us how you think a bubble does look like.

It does not really look like a bubble.

There is currently not enough evidence to point bitcoin is in bubble as there are many buyers, not only the mtgox, but may be dangerous as the market is not fully ready to use mathematical being to count.

I currently notice three major players, two in my place and the btc-e. The btc-e has been doing better than gox at the panic time.

yes.. and the should fall with the deflation rate.

We are in deflation or soon will be globally.

These effects are mostly money-flow based and are not entirely pure of other corresponding price impacts.
For example: Bond interest tends to track inflation





Prices that are linked to inflation (hard assets) should rise with the inflation rate.

thanks

Great question too

this makes a lot of sense

I think chances are high that bitcoin will find a low around $60 the coming months. If this materializes that means a drop of -40% from the current $100 on bitstamp. That's called a crash in traditional markets. So I think one can say bitcoin is still in a bubble today.

However, I agree that price will likely be higher than the current $100 in 1 year and have surpassed the all time high of $266 in 2 years. In a traditional market it takes decades for bubbles that deflated to reach new all time highs so from that perspective bitcoin is not in a bubble today.

I agree that gov bond market is likely close to default. Before that however interest rates of gov bonds should go up strongly, just like in Greece happened. Like in Greece stocks and to a lesser extend real estate will go down in such event. Gold may, in contrast to 2008, not go down and just like in Greece go to a strong premium as people flee banks and gov bonds. But agreed, chances are 50/50 gold will first go down too.

However waiting for the above event to buy bitcoin seems unwise to me since it can take years before it starts unfolding, as Japan proved, and in such time bitcoin has easily 10 times more users and a 10 times higher price, in contrast to gold.

So I would say biggest bubble is gov bonds, then stocks, then real estate in many areas, and although gold is certainly priced on the higher end historically, it will likely be the next great bubble the coming years. What seems most undervalued to me today is bitcoin considering it's market cap is still only $1 billion.

thats too easy... come on

Personally, I believe that BTC will outperform most assets in the next 12 months. Is this clear enough?

LOL HAHAHAH, I just laughed out loud for real. 

i dont know what you are saying, but i know i won this argument and the discussion is now over

thanks for your participation

for significant periods of time, yes.
but I am also referring to the BTCUSD rate only at this stage, and in some point the USD will be far weaker. Net, even if both fall, as the USD should fall harder, BTCUSD will rise.

But again, we will analyse all this on a daily / weekly basis as noone can predict the next years exactly today. some things will change along the way that require to verify / adjust the forecast frequently.

so what you are saying without saying is btc will be immune, at least partially, to general asset depreciation when key interest rates go up? dunno... that's a risky proposition, if that is indeed what you maintain

you have a great point, definitely.

However, it all depends on your time horizon.
One thing I learned painfully over the first years of analyses and trading is that you should not assume certain market correlations hold forever. Instead you need to analyze each market separately, and only use the correlations with other assets as one out of many indicators.

when it comes to the Bitcoin forecast I do not want to get into specifics here as this would be unfair to paying subscribers ( a new report will come out in the next 24 hours and I am sure it will be very interesting as something happens with BTCUSD).

Net, there are different time frames and some of them warrant to be long bitcoins , even if in some point a bigger correction could come. But you can still sell then..

Yea, ok. bitcoin has lots of potential, agree. but why on earth would you buy pre-crash? rising interest rates = mad dash towards dollars. everything else tanks.

imho: save your dollars and buy tons more bitcoins post-burst. then sit around and wait for inevitable wave of inflation.

bottom line, stupid to buy and hold right now if you KNOW a bond collapse is coming. be patient. noobs

there are two effects with different impacts:
1) the overall deflation of all assets which can also impact BTC as you suggested above
2) bitcoins infancy with still huge potential. just imagine every citizen of the world would have 0.001 BTC...

here an overlay (with different axis, still needed :-))

huh? bond burst results from rising interest rates... If that happens, virtually all assets including gold, houses, BITCOIN, etc, should go down, no?

bond bubble is not good for bitcoin, unless you intend to sell before rates go up and re-buy at bottom. good luck timing that.

now we are onto something interesting..

We never discussed about a SPLIT.

Stocks are split regularly, but in BTC this does not really work. Any idea?
If there is no split, BTCUSD will be like Warren Buffet's stock. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Current price 173,220.00 $