Topic: The reason why bitcoin will never *stay* below 5000$ again. PROVE ME WRONG - page 3. (Read 2504 times)
October 23, 2018, 01:08:01 AM
Looks like I was right.. now look what will happen to Bitcoin price....
September 17, 2018, 11:14:10 AM
now here is why bitcoin wont go down
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
Why wouldn't miners sell at a loss? Lots of investors sell at a loss, eventually, once the pain of being underwater gets bad enough. I remember reading about mining operations back in 2014 whose operational costs were heavily leveraged. They were forced to liquidate everything because of the bear market.
Some people are hard to explain even the simplest of things. They are like living in their own universe, with its own laws, which is to say, their laws. Miners are not only going to sell at a loss as they don't have a lot of choice having to pay their bills in fiat, they will in fact be mining at a loss. Many miners in the past had been mining at a loss for some time expecting future price growth just like any other producer out there does when the prices plunge for some reason.
Yes, I also remember a story about some Scandinavian miner (name is welcome) who had to stop their operation and sell out because they couldn't keep up with the competition from the Chinese miners, with their cheap electricity (likely subsidized by the local government) and early access to most advanced miners. Bitmain, anyone?
September 16, 2018, 10:24:42 PM
Bitcoin good days are coming and it will never get low in the future but the price will increase more and I know a tragedy happened for Bitcoin holders and investors in last couple of months when Bitcoin price went down most people thought that this is a great and rare chance to invest thinking that the price would double in no time but Bitcoin price decreased further for many political and financial reasons and all dreams were destroyed instantly but I think we can still hope for the best in the future even most investors have faced many losses recently many experts idea is that Bitcoin will be fine due to the high demand it is gaining from major industries and price of bitcoin will increase by time
September 15, 2018, 04:03:02 PM
There market will get better with time but it will it is not to predict how things will go. However, I do not think that bitcoin will fall below 5000 dollars
September 15, 2018, 03:34:40 PM
The only reason of not dropping price below 5000 usd is that mining won't be profitable.
That's not the "only" reason, but a very strong one. The reason #1 is the one I posted.
This is a very weak argument really. No one gives a fuck about mining costs, let alone there being a single cost of mining in the first place. If anything, whatever bitcoin price might be (5k or 1k), there will always be enough miners as mining will always stay profitable at any price. If mining is no longer profitable for some miners, they just leave while the rest picks up the slack instantly taking their share of the reward pie (as the reward remains the same). No offense intended, but honestly, when people bring up this argument about costs of mining, you can be certain that they don't have a clue about how everything works regarding prices, costs, and other economic matters.
As to your claim in the OP, anyone with enough bitcoins (like the mtgox dude) can crash the price to 1k or even below and keep it there as long as he sees fit. There is no reason to prove you wrong as it is just a matter of someone with deep enough pockets, for example, Satoshi and his likes, choosing to dump enough coins. There is nothing to prove here.
No - it is important because people who are heavily involved in mining who happens to have a considerable wealth, will always try to manipulate the price above their profitability rate.
Manipulating up a 100B$ market is easier than manipulating it down.
Simple as that, if you disagree read again because it's a very simple concept.
I'm not going to argue over this point any further as only time will tell and only time can actually prove or disprove your point. Just in case, I hope you are right. However, how much are you going to stake personally that bitcoin won't drop below 5k? Also, explain what you mean by staying below 5k? Are you deliberately playing on words here as staying below 5k is not the same as temporarily dropping below that level? Staying means a certain amount or length of time, so how much exactly, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, in a row or occasionally?
September 15, 2018, 01:15:53 PM
now here is why bitcoin wont go down
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
Why wouldn't miners sell at a loss? Lots of investors sell at a loss, eventually, once the pain of being underwater gets bad enough. I remember reading about mining operations back in 2014 whose operational costs were heavily leveraged. They were forced to liquidate everything because of the bear market.
I've also heard of miners (and recently too) who had much lower costs than that.
2. trading. since november 2017 and retested end of june 2018. no trader has sold below $5800. there has been 10 months of oppertunity for anyone who is happy to sell below $5800 to actually sell below $5800... no one has.
The $5,800 bottom came only a couple months ago. Give it time.
3. looking at the UTXO data over 65% of coins have moved/changed hands since the $5,800 price point. and they have not sold below $5800. the other 35% are older coins. which some say could be lost keys, held in trust/for retirement. locked in bankrupcy legal blackholes(mtgox). so in short 2 thirds of the community dont want to sell for less because they have ben active enough to show they had oppertunity. but have not sold when they had the chance
Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. If there has been sufficient demand to keep price above $5,800 it doesn't logically follow that there is no one willing to sell below $5,800. If the demand decreases, sellers could push price further down.
Anyway, I'll continue to hold my coins. I'm just playing devil's advocate and pointing out that this is all speculation.
September 15, 2018, 01:01:47 PM
Really appreciate you thought and also it is a very informative article and I want to add just one thing bitcoin has its own standard limit and it will never cross that.
September 15, 2018, 12:27:07 PM
Current Market cap is 120b $ (actually real market cap much lower than that due to lost btc and so on); that could be 1000 people with 120m$ hidden. Anyone who has approximately that amount of btc would be very able to buy the market would it temporarily drop significantly below 5000$ per btc, due to the very limited (and shrinking) actual supply of bitcoin and availability in the exchanges.
There's these school of thought I believe in, it says "In Cryptocurrency everything is possible" it has been proven to be true every time it's been put to test.
Example, you wrote this post August 06 and today is September 15. Since then bitcoin has lost nearly $7billion dropping market cap to ~$113Billion. Hope you know this market cap can also drop to ~$87billion at anytime and if that happens bitcoin will drop to around ~$5000 not saying this will happen but it's a probability.
You are exactly right on the part that in cryptocurrency anything is very possible. The price of Bitcoin could go below 5000$ and can as well stay ahead 6000$. And investors should not be carried away by investing all their hard earn cash, kindly use your investment strategy.
September 15, 2018, 12:04:07 PM
Bitcoin market will recover soon and it will show most panic sellers and who made negative predictions that they are wrong . Due to bitcoin price drop even top cryptocurrency investors got panicked and sold for a lower price and in that time countries like USA, India kept fueling the situation ignoring the bad effect on investors and benefits that the country could have gained by using it and for the positive side significant businesses in various areas trying to implement Bitcoin with there core business processes because tech experts know digital currency is something extraordinary when compared to fiat paper currencies so doesn't matter what the world thinks now the future will definitely welcome bitcoin with open hand
September 15, 2018, 11:32:11 AM
Most of the time it wont go under 5000$ and some are very sure about that and they even invest there life savings on bitcoin so this is the last chance to gain what most have lost but not to abandon the market or you wont get anything. Bitcoin price seems to fail and that is due to media, governments and other financial reasons that we have today and among them government restrictions and media news are main reasons why bitcoin price started to fall recently but now countries are changing there view about crypto assets and instead of thinking they are too bad for the economy major governments are finding ways to deal with them to make profits in in many ways
September 15, 2018, 08:32:19 AM
This is the main concern of many people because there huge investments depends on bitcoin prices and I can say bitcoin price is rising fine now and it will be strong in the future and I am saying this because even as we speak Bitcoin is getting more followers that the past so unlike several years ago now more individuals posses at least some amount of Biitcoin in there wallets to use as investments or to make payments and with that bitcoin might become more productive and usable in the future so definitely it will rise than falling again
September 15, 2018, 07:48:11 AM
No one can predict certainly that bitcoin will never go under that amount and I too cannot do that because we saw unthinkable happen since we came to the crypto market but I do think still there is a possibility we can make profits from bitcoin investment because in the past Countries tried make restrictions against Bitcoin and some tried to ban and with the price fall many thought Bitcoin will disappeared but now it is recovering like it didn't even care what happened and the possibility is high that bitcoin soon will gain it's previous price very easily without any problem but it depends how external factors reacts on bitcoin in the future
September 13, 2018, 02:11:53 AM
now here is why bitcoin wont go down
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
2. trading. since november 2017 and retested end of june 2018. no trader has sold below $5800. there has been 10 months of oppertunity for anyone who is happy to sell below $5800 to actually sell below $5800... no one has.
as for those that did sell at $5800 in november and june they sold, they are out they took their funds and left. the buyer of those coins now has a cost of $5800 and they wont stupidly sell for less.
3. looking at the UTXO data over 65% of coins have moved/changed hands since the $5,800 price point. and they have not sold below $5800. the other 35% are older coins. which some say could be lost keys, held in trust/for retirement. locked in bankrupcy legal blackholes(mtgox). so in short 2 thirds of the community dont want to sell for less because they have ben active enough to show they had oppertunity. but have not sold when they had the chance
4. so since the november and retested a few times. people with coins and mining coins have to a majority of over 65% collectively agreed they wont sell below $5800.
now lets imagine that the $5800 could be broken.
the idea is that of the 35% that didnt move/spend/sell even though their costs are below $5800 is because they:
have not checked the price for a year and didnt realise the price
lost their keys.
not ready to sell yet
now we all know that the 35% doesnt belong to one person. and if it was a group and they wanted to collectively collude. they would have done so already. they had many chances to group up.
but if one person had 5000btc to sell down the market volume of bitfinex to $5800 or 2000btc to sell down the market of GDAX. before they even get to sell their last coin. the market buyers wishing to buy over $5800 would be grabbing coins before 5800 and the price wont get to what the seller wants to push it down to, in short it would flash crash and then the buyers will see it as a discount opportunity and recover the price back up.
it would require alot of coins to tank the price and then perpetually keep it down to fight off the buyers who will be counteracting those efforts.
this worry is the whole thing about the "what if MTGox,, what if satoshi" .. well as i said earlier. they have had plenty of chances while the price is above $5800 to sell
but because 10 months of opportunity has shown no desire to do it and the mining costs show pools wont. id say thats a good case and percentage we wont see the bottom fall out of the market
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
2. trading. since november 2017 and retested end of june 2018. no trader has sold below $5800. there has been 10 months of oppertunity for anyone who is happy to sell below $5800 to actually sell below $5800... no one has.
as for those that did sell at $5800 in november and june they sold, they are out they took their funds and left. the buyer of those coins now has a cost of $5800 and they wont stupidly sell for less.
3. looking at the UTXO data over 65% of coins have moved/changed hands since the $5,800 price point. and they have not sold below $5800. the other 35% are older coins. which some say could be lost keys, held in trust/for retirement. locked in bankrupcy legal blackholes(mtgox). so in short 2 thirds of the community dont want to sell for less because they have ben active enough to show they had oppertunity. but have not sold when they had the chance
4. so since the november and retested a few times. people with coins and mining coins have to a majority of over 65% collectively agreed they wont sell below $5800.
now lets imagine that the $5800 could be broken.
the idea is that of the 35% that didnt move/spend/sell even though their costs are below $5800 is because they:
have not checked the price for a year and didnt realise the price
lost their keys.
not ready to sell yet
now we all know that the 35% doesnt belong to one person. and if it was a group and they wanted to collectively collude. they would have done so already. they had many chances to group up.
but if one person had 5000btc to sell down the market volume of bitfinex to $5800 or 2000btc to sell down the market of GDAX. before they even get to sell their last coin. the market buyers wishing to buy over $5800 would be grabbing coins before 5800 and the price wont get to what the seller wants to push it down to, in short it would flash crash and then the buyers will see it as a discount opportunity and recover the price back up.
it would require alot of coins to tank the price and then perpetually keep it down to fight off the buyers who will be counteracting those efforts.
this worry is the whole thing about the "what if MTGox,, what if satoshi" .. well as i said earlier. they have had plenty of chances while the price is above $5800 to sell
but because 10 months of opportunity has shown no desire to do it and the mining costs show pools wont. id say thats a good case and percentage we wont see the bottom fall out of the market
September 13, 2018, 02:08:13 AM
OP is wrong
the topic is good. but his reasoning lacks...
because his whole comment is based on market cap. and he talks about it as if there is a stockpile of dollars held somewhere holding the price up.
sorry there isnt
bitcoins price is made up from a seller having coins and finding a buyer that agrees with the price. the price moves depending on the price agreed.
market cap is just a multiplication of that price.
EG i can make 5 trillion coins. sell 1 coin for $1 and have $5trill cap.. that does not mean there is actually $5trill holding up the price. there is only $1
now there is also no central holding of the dollars to back it up. the person that sold they have taken the funds and moved on.
but lets pretend there was a central store
if i tried to sell my coins. i would not get 5trillion. i would end up with 0.0000000000002 per coin ($1) if sold all the coins to get to that $1 held
in short market caps are MEANINGLESS!!!
the topic is good. but his reasoning lacks...
because his whole comment is based on market cap. and he talks about it as if there is a stockpile of dollars held somewhere holding the price up.
sorry there isnt
bitcoins price is made up from a seller having coins and finding a buyer that agrees with the price. the price moves depending on the price agreed.
market cap is just a multiplication of that price.
EG i can make 5 trillion coins. sell 1 coin for $1 and have $5trill cap.. that does not mean there is actually $5trill holding up the price. there is only $1
now there is also no central holding of the dollars to back it up. the person that sold they have taken the funds and moved on.
but lets pretend there was a central store
if i tried to sell my coins. i would not get 5trillion. i would end up with 0.0000000000002 per coin ($1) if sold all the coins to get to that $1 held
in short market caps are MEANINGLESS!!!
September 13, 2018, 12:26:22 AM
The only reason of not dropping price below 5000 usd is that mining won't be profitable.
That's not the "only" reason, but a very strong one. The reason #1 is the one I posted.
This is a very weak argument really. No one gives a fuck about mining costs, let alone there being a single cost of mining in the first place. If anything, whatever bitcoin price might be (5k or 1k), there will always be enough miners as mining will always stay profitable at any price. If mining is no longer profitable for some miners, they just leave while the rest picks up the slack instantly taking their share of the reward pie (as the reward remains the same). No offense intended, but honestly, when people bring up this argument about costs of mining, you can be certain that they don't have a clue about how everything works regarding prices, costs, and other economic matters.
As to your claim in the OP, anyone with enough bitcoins (like the mtgox dude) can crash the price to 1k or even below and keep it there as long as he sees fit. There is no reason to prove you wrong as it is just a matter of someone with deep enough pockets, for example, Satoshi and his likes, choosing to dump enough coins. There is nothing to prove here.
No - it is important because people who are heavily involved in mining who happens to have a considerable wealth, will always try to manipulate the price above their profitability rate.
Manipulating up a 100B$ market is easier than manipulating it down.
Simple as that, if you disagree read again because it's a very simple concept.
September 13, 2018, 12:10:24 AM
Bitcoin will never go below 5000$ again because it is expanding at the moment in the business world in a high rate as a digital currency and soon its price will rise to the previous level or more so better to buy now without thinking twice and like you have mentioned ethereum price too is low and doing ethereum investments too will be very profitable in the future but for any now is the time to buy and hold
September 11, 2018, 05:46:59 AM
It wont fall again because even Bicoins price dropped but due to many negative effects it had to face from the world but the world understanding towards Bitoin is changing so we can see many industries and businesses are trying to connect Bitcoin with there core business processes and that can give a good place in the near future to increase it's price and expand more in the globe so I think the possibility of Bitcoin to go under 5000$ is minimum in the future
September 10, 2018, 04:47:59 PM
The only reason of not dropping price below 5000 usd is that mining won't be profitable.
That's not the "only" reason, but a very strong one. The reason #1 is the one I posted.
This is a very weak argument really. No one gives a fuck about mining costs, let alone there being a single cost of mining in the first place. If anything, whatever bitcoin price might be (5k or 1k), there will always be enough miners as mining will always stay profitable at any price. If mining is no longer profitable for some miners, they just leave while the rest picks up the slack instantly taking their share of the reward pie (as the reward remains the same). No offense intended, but honestly, when people bring up this argument about costs of mining, you can be certain that they don't have a clue about how everything works regarding prices, costs, and other economic matters.
As to your claim in the OP, anyone with enough bitcoins (like the mtgox dude) can crash the price to 1k or even below and keep it there as long as he sees fit. There is no reason to prove you wrong as it is just a matter of someone with deep enough pockets, for example, Satoshi and his likes, choosing to dump enough coins. There is nothing to prove here.
No - it is important because people who are heavily involved in mining who happens to have a considerable wealth, will always try to manipulate the price above their profitability rate.
Manipulating up a 100B$ market is easier than manipulating it down.
Simple as that, if you disagree read again because it's a very simple concept.
September 10, 2018, 11:16:00 AM
Current Market cap is 120b $ (actually real market cap much lower than that due to lost btc and so on); that could be 1000 people with 120m$ hidden. Anyone who has approximately that amount of btc would be very able to buy the market would it temporarily drop significantly below 5000$ per btc, due to the very limited (and shrinking) actual supply of bitcoin and availability in the exchanges.
I think what we witnessed in last december will happen again and at a greater extent. Don't ask me when, but that's a given.
Bitcoin has been chosen.
Why? Possibly positioning.
Price won't give a fuck on whether it can be used everyday to buy stuff. Its purpose it for wealthy billionaires to keep part of their wealth inaccessible through offline wallets.
Whether tx take 1 hours to go and cost 10 bucks each.
Whether the nodes get a little bit more or a little bit less centralized.
All that matters is the one reason I stated above.
Everything else is just smoke for sardines.
I think what we witnessed in last december will happen again and at a greater extent. Don't ask me when, but that's a given.
Bitcoin has been chosen.
Why? Possibly positioning.
Price won't give a fuck on whether it can be used everyday to buy stuff. Its purpose it for wealthy billionaires to keep part of their wealth inaccessible through offline wallets.
Whether tx take 1 hours to go and cost 10 bucks each.
Whether the nodes get a little bit more or a little bit less centralized.
All that matters is the one reason I stated above.
Everything else is just smoke for sardines.
but i think everything is possible in crypto, so we are not recommended to really trust what we trusted or analyzed before, because it can be wrong anytime
September 10, 2018, 11:11:37 AM
Current Market cap is 120b $ (actually real market cap much lower than that due to lost btc and so on); that could be 1000 people with 120m$ hidden. Anyone who has approximately that amount of btc would be very able to buy the market would it temporarily drop significantly below 5000$ per btc, due to the very limited (and shrinking) actual supply of bitcoin and availability in the exchanges.
I think what we witnessed in last december will happen again and at a greater extent. Don't ask me when, but that's a given.
Bitcoin has been chosen.
Why? Possibly positioning.
Price won't give a fuck on whether it can be used everyday to buy stuff. Its purpose it for wealthy billionaires to keep part of their wealth inaccessible through offline wallets.
Whether tx take 1 hours to go and cost 10 bucks each.
Whether the nodes get a little bit more or a little bit less centralized.
All that matters is the one reason I stated above.
Everything else is just smoke for sardines.
I also believe that Bitcoin will not stay below $5000 because the demand is more powerful than the manipulators and the dumpers.It is not like fiat currency where inflation kicks in. Bitcoin is inflation proof and it will climb no matter how hard they dump it. I think what we witnessed in last december will happen again and at a greater extent. Don't ask me when, but that's a given.
Bitcoin has been chosen.
Why? Possibly positioning.
Price won't give a fuck on whether it can be used everyday to buy stuff. Its purpose it for wealthy billionaires to keep part of their wealth inaccessible through offline wallets.
Whether tx take 1 hours to go and cost 10 bucks each.
Whether the nodes get a little bit more or a little bit less centralized.
All that matters is the one reason I stated above.
Everything else is just smoke for sardines.
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