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Topic: The smile patrol - page 5. (Read 7283 times)

thezerg
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Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 03:35:25 PM
#27
Quote from: ?? on ??
That's why 50btc is a boringly small amount to put on the line.  jcpham will be ecstatic if a BTC is at USD100 in October because 50BTC won't be material.  So he has to sell 50 at a discount.  It's not as if he won't be skipping at the Sum(holdings) - 50 being worth USD100 each.

Yes, so as I posted previously wondering if he or some other early adopter with more coins then cash really does create an instrument with some significant volume, a reasonable option cost, etc it may be well received.

Quote from: ?? on ??
It's not as big a potential "missed opportunity" as you may think.  Myopia is definitely not the problem.  Assuming a reasonable IRR, the NPV of $550 - cost basis in three months is still worth a couple posts on a thread.  Maybe not the pain of reading smoothie's trolling, but that's another issue.

By myopic I just meant that he is looking only at his side of the deal.  But like any option, smoothie's side may also be good.  Personally I don't like it at 25%...

Quote from: ?? on ??
And if it's at USD100 on or near Halloween, I'll be selling enough to make it not worth nearly that much.  Roll Eyes

:-) If its at USD100 that quickly it will be there because major financial players entered the market, so they may gobble your volume like it did not exist.  But of course anything above 11 is a win for both parties.

OmegaNemesis28
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 03:34:36 PM
#26
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: BTCurious on July 18, 2012, 09:57:26 AM
Quote from: ?? on ??
I hate that the thread turned sour as well. I'd echo reeses comments and say that math is in my favor, any time I can sell a couple coins for 2x, 3x, maybe 11x what it cost me, I win. If I got some money upfront for it, that's a bonus as I now have your money in my possession to do with as I please. We won't even go into mined coins, just set that notion aside and look at the financials of the deal.
Actually, there's a bit more detail to it than that. It's called the time value of money, and it basically means having money now is worth more than having money in the future, because right now you can make more money with that money.

So yes, while you, right now, can buy coins for $9, it also means your coins are locked until the end of October, and can't be used to make more money. It's very possible that you could have made more than this $2 per coin with it if you didn't go into this trade, perhaps even by simply waiting for the price to rise.

So what smoothie does actually makes sense, assuming he's certain enough about the price being over $11 then.

While I agree that I'm probably loosing out in potential profit, an $11 /per sale is profitable to me. Always will be, from this point forward, nothing can change it. He's laughing, I'm not; he says it is a joke. I say it isn't a joke. I'm EXTRA willing to take the loss now for his money, NOW.

I do agree that $11 lock in this moment is great.
However, if it were set for next month or early September would be better. Because, looking at Bitcoin, it was on a steady incline up until the other day when it shot to $9. Even after that fiasco, it went back to $9 from 8 and seems to be returning to what it was doing. We could see $10 by the end of week, if not the next.
Obviously, anything can happen that can derail this incline but $11 in October is risky business.

If you've got the 50 coin, why not I suppose though :p
smoothie
legendary
Activity: 2492
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 03:20:45 PM
#25
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: thezerg on July 18, 2012, 11:02:47 AM
If his position was not defensible there would be no stock options or futures market.  Thinking you got the best of the deal due to its structure alone is myopic.

You essentially just sold a covered call.  Since you are making a profit at the call price its a very good strategy especially when the market is flat or down, and I think you got a GREAT price for the sale of this option.  

But if a BTC is worth 100 bucks in October you will be less happy with your call at 11.

That's why 50btc is a boringly small amount to put on the line.  jcpham will be ecstatic if a BTC is at USD100 in October because 50BTC won't be material.  So he has to sell 50 at a discount.  It's not as if he won't be skipping at the Sum(holdings) - 50 being worth USD100 each.

It's not as big a potential "missed opportunity" as you may think.  Myopia is definitely not the problem.  Assuming a reasonable IRR, the NPV of $550 - cost basis in three months is still worth a couple posts on a thread.  Maybe not the pain of reading smoothie's trolling, but that's another issue.

And if it's at USD100 on or near Halloween, I'll be selling enough to make it not worth nearly that much.  Roll Eyes

Butt hurt? lol....

Dude by all means PLEASE push the price down (if you can) to sub $11 prior to Halloween or near there.

I'll thank you for the gift then.

 Grin Grin Grin
imsaguy
vip
Activity: 574
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Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 03:17:10 PM
#24
Quote from: ?? on ??
And if it's at USD100 on or near Halloween, I'll be selling enough to make it not worth nearly that much.  Roll Eyes

gotta pay for your van somehow

smoothie
legendary
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Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 02:51:48 PM
#23
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 18, 2012, 02:28:47 PM
If I back out of the deal (which I won't). The mods of this forum have every right to permanently ban me from this forum.

They already do.  The proper thing to do would be to "ban yourself" and leave forever, never creating another account.

Well then I guess everything is set then.

Futures here we come!
smoothie
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Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 02:28:47 PM
#22
Here I will do you one better:

If I back out of the deal (which I won't). The mods of this forum have every right to permanently ban me from this forum.

Deal is on for 10/31/2012.

This is more of an experiment to see how I do and how you do in the trade 3.5 months from now.

Win or lose it will be fun for me.

 Grin Grin Grin
thezerg
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 12:29:58 PM
#21
Quote from: ?? on ??
I'd also like to point out that without some type collateral/principle/earnest now, it's pretty difficult to consider it any type of futures deal. My unique situation allows me to "put my money where my mouth is" and profit, regardless. Now that I've opened my mouth, I'll pay 50BTC just to make it go away, frankly. I'd like to keep up my good reputation because it actually means something to me and I'm not here to talk shit and fuck about.

I made the deal, provided counter terms, they were accepted, a renege was made on the 25%. I'm still willing to send 50btc to someone if they want to escrow, you can work out the cash with smoothie. 25% is what it takes for what is most likely one hell of a good deal, today. The rocket appears to be taking off so to speak, yet I'm only still looking for $137.50 in escrow, which would, in fact secure coins in October, at 11$ /per. The price was 1$ less when I said it yesterday.

Whatever. Troll or participate, it doesn't matter to me. Smiley

Jcpham, I don't read it that way:

Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:51:34 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
I'll accept that $11 /per offer for October 31st. The coins will be waiting on you. You can pay now if you'd like (in full or a partial payment of 25%) and I'll hold on to them for you until that date. I can even find someone to escrow the coins until then if you would like.

Deal. I will buy them on Halloween from you and yes we will use an escrow.


You should have said, "you must pay in full or 25% now".  But you said "if you'd like" -- well I guess he didn't like :-).  You are lucky he's not being a jerk and trying to hold you to the contract as stated.  Of course as originally stated there was also no back out clause.  It was basically a crazy trade -- happening today with a settle date in October. 

Why don't you put up a real call option with a reasonable fee, 6 month span (exercisable at ANY TIME during 6 months) and see if you get any takers?  Personally I'd be tempted at a much lower rate but very afraid of counterparty risk (the escrow party).  Your risk is relatively low, if the call is not exercised and the escrow steals the BTC, you gain the call cost and lose final price*quantity in USD.  But if BTC does rocket the escrow could end up holding a LOT of money in BTC which would be a LOT more tempting to disappear with.  Too bad the double signed acts are not avail yet!  So you'd have to figure that out...

Anyway, if you are a miner looking to lock in a price to reduce uncertainty (similar to all producers of goods the world over), then think about it and post a real offer.



imsaguy
vip
Activity: 574
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Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 11:50:57 AM
#20
Quote from: ?? on ??
I'd also like to point out that without some type collateral/principle/earnest now, it's pretty difficult to consider it any type of futures deal. My unique situation allows me to "put my money where my mouth is" and profit, regardless. Now that I've opened my mouth, I'll pay 50BTC just to make it go away, frankly. I'd like to keep up my good reputation because it actually means something to me and I'm not here to talk shit and fuck about.

I made the deal, provided counter terms, they were accepted, a renege was made on the 25%. I'm still willing to send 50btc to someone if they want to escrow, you can work out the cash with smoothie. 25% is what it takes for what is most likely one hell of a good deal, today. The rocket appears to be taking off so to speak, yet I'm only still looking for $137.50 in escrow, which would, in fact secure coins in October, at 11$ /per. The price was 1$ less when I said it yesterday.

Whatever. Troll or participate, it doesn't matter to me. Smiley

I'll throw it in an Armory wallet if it really makes you feel better.
thezerg
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 11:02:47 AM
#19
Quote from: BTCurious on July 18, 2012, 10:47:51 AM
Quote from: ?? on ??
While I agree that I'm probably loosing out in potential profit, an $11 /per sale is profitable to me. Always will be, from this point forward, nothing can change it. He's laughing, I'm not; he says it is a joke. I say it isn't a joke. I'm EXTRA willing to take the loss now for his money, NOW.
He's laughing because he doesn't know how to put his stance in words properly. His position is easily defensible. It might be that this is a good deal for both of you, it depends a lot on your personal time value of money.

If his position was not defensible there would be no stock options or futures market.  Thinking you got the best of the deal due to its structure alone is myopic.

You essentially just sold a covered call.  Since you are making a profit at the call price its a very good strategy especially when the market is flat or down, and I think you got a GREAT price for the sale of this option.  

But if a BTC is worth 100 bucks in October you will be less happy with your call at 11.

BTCurious
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 10:47:51 AM
#18
Quote from: ?? on ??
While I agree that I'm probably loosing out in potential profit, an $11 /per sale is profitable to me. Always will be, from this point forward, nothing can change it. He's laughing, I'm not; he says it is a joke. I say it isn't a joke. I'm EXTRA willing to take the loss now for his money, NOW.
He's laughing because he doesn't know how to put his stance in words properly. His position is easily defensible. It might be that this is a good deal for both of you, it depends a lot on your personal time value of money.
BTCurious
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
Re: The smile patrol
July 18, 2012, 09:57:26 AM
#17
Quote from: ?? on ??
I hate that the thread turned sour as well. I'd echo reeses comments and say that math is in my favor, any time I can sell a couple coins for 2x, 3x, maybe 11x what it cost me, I win. If I got some money upfront for it, that's a bonus as I now have your money in my possession to do with as I please. We won't even go into mined coins, just set that notion aside and look at the financials of the deal.
Actually, there's a bit more detail to it than that. It's called the time value of money, and it basically means having money now is worth more than having money in the future, because right now you can make more money with that money.

So yes, while you, right now, can buy coins for $9, it also means your coins are locked until the end of October, and can't be used to make more money. It's very possible that you could have made more than this $2 per coin with it if you didn't go into this trade, perhaps even by simply waiting for the price to rise.

So what smoothie does actually makes sense, assuming he's certain enough about the price being over $11 then.
smoothie
legendary
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Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 07:20:03 PM
#16
Quote from: ?? on ??
I hate that the thread turned sour as well. I'd echo reeses comments and say that math is in my favor, any time I can sell a couple coins for 2x, 3x, maybe 11x what it cost me, I win. If I got some money upfront for it, that's a bonus as I now have your money in my possession to do with as I please. We won't even go into mined coins, just set that notion aside and look at the financials of the deal.

I understand. I'm doing this more for lulz than anything else.

Perhaps some profit too. Who knows where the price will be at that point.

 Grin Grin Grin either way i'm happy!
smoothie
legendary
Activity: 2492
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Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 06:53:56 PM
#15
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 06:49:45 PM
Not all of us "gamble" to make millions. Some of us do it for the mere fun of it, hence the smaller amount. Problem?

No problem.  Just making it clear you make claims and pronouncements even you don't believe.  And you're a coward.  I didn't say 100,000 coins because I thought it was a bit excessive to fleece you that thoroughly.  Plus, you don't have it.  Sad

Oh that would explain why I'm taking up someone on a 50btc futures exchange on 10/31/2012?

Aww you have to resort to name calling? "coward"? Good job you just showed me your immaturity right there. That's cool. I don't cry when I don't get my way like you.

Duh I don't have 100k btc...you could talk to pirate though  Wink
smoothie
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Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 06:49:45 PM
#14
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 06:46:30 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 06:39:36 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:42:40 PM
Quote from: reeses on July 17, 2012, 04:35:28 PM
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:17:49 PM
Pirate's announcement of interest rates cut for August 1st and beyond tells me that his profit margin is either getting diminished or he wants to up his profit margin to have more "pull" in the market.

Either way these next 6 weeks should be interesting in bitcoin price terms.

I say at the end of August we will have hit $12-$15/bitcoin.

I'll sell a bunch to you today for $11.  All that profit will be yours!

Where did I say I wanted to buy at $11?

How about this I'll accept your offer in October okay? Let's say Halloween (October 31st). I'll buy 50 BTC at $11 each on that day from you.

Deal?

Chicken?

Troll?

Chicken Troll?

 Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

I see that the noble jcpham took you up on your offer.

Room enough for your original friend?  Why be chickenshit over only 50btc, though?  Raise the stakes.  How about 100?  1000?  10,000?  Name your number, and I'll take you to the boards. Smiley

Aww you want in on the deal too?

Okay here I'll buy 0.01 btc from you at $11/btc. Sound good?

LOL

Edit: On Oct 31st, 2012

I figured you were all talk, troll, both about your prediction and your "pile of coins".  No commitment to what comes out of your...keyboard.  So shameful.

I did stick to my deal. But then again you were too slow. Someone took me up on the offer. First come first serve, come after...get trolled.  Grin Grin Grin

I assumed you meant me when you did your "from you" (emphasis yours) in reply to me.  But if you can't afford 1,000 btc of what you think is a sure bet, I understand.  We can't all be good at math.


Not all of us "gamble" to make millions. Some of us do it for the mere fun of it, hence the smaller amount. Problem?
smoothie
legendary
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Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 06:46:30 PM
#13
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 06:39:36 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:42:40 PM
Quote from: reeses on July 17, 2012, 04:35:28 PM
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:17:49 PM
Pirate's announcement of interest rates cut for August 1st and beyond tells me that his profit margin is either getting diminished or he wants to up his profit margin to have more "pull" in the market.

Either way these next 6 weeks should be interesting in bitcoin price terms.

I say at the end of August we will have hit $12-$15/bitcoin.

I'll sell a bunch to you today for $11.  All that profit will be yours!

Where did I say I wanted to buy at $11?

How about this I'll accept your offer in October okay? Let's say Halloween (October 31st). I'll buy 50 BTC at $11 each on that day from you.

Deal?

Chicken?

Troll?

Chicken Troll?

 Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

I see that the noble jcpham took you up on your offer.

Room enough for your original friend?  Why be chickenshit over only 50btc, though?  Raise the stakes.  How about 100?  1000?  10,000?  Name your number, and I'll take you to the boards. Smiley

Aww you want in on the deal too?

Okay here I'll buy 0.01 btc from you at $11/btc. Sound good?

LOL

Edit: On Oct 31st, 2012

I figured you were all talk, troll, both about your prediction and your "pile of coins".  No commitment to what comes out of your...keyboard.  So shameful.

I did stick to my deal. But then again you were too slow. Someone took me up on the offer. First come first serve, come after...get trolled.  Grin Grin Grin
smoothie
legendary
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Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 06:42:12 PM
#12
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 05:29:14 PM
Quote from: myrkul on July 17, 2012, 05:25:29 PM
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:51:34 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
I'll accept that $11 /per offer for October 31st. The coins will be waiting on you. You can pay now if you'd like (in full or a partial payment of 25%) and I'll hold on to them for you until that date. I can even find someone to escrow the coins until then if you would like.
Deal. I will buy them on Halloween from you and yes we will use an escrow.

Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 05:22:24 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Until October then, I suppose.  Grin
Yes Oct 31st 2012 we will finish the deal. 50btc for $11 each.

Quoted to ensure posterity. Consider this to be contract witnessed.

+1

I mean, AFAIK someone owes me 550 bucks it seems. I think my point on futures didn't go un-noticed. But anyways, you guys have fun. I'd would've enjoyed the cash now to have to play with, I'm sure there is a wikipedia link or something that explains why I wanted the money now.

All in the future man...be patient it will come.  Grin Grin Grin


EDIT: If I gave you the money now it would be no fun because I could easily buy bitcoins for less than $9 each right now.
smoothie
legendary
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 06:39:36 PM
#11
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:42:40 PM
Quote from: reeses on July 17, 2012, 04:35:28 PM
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:17:49 PM
Pirate's announcement of interest rates cut for August 1st and beyond tells me that his profit margin is either getting diminished or he wants to up his profit margin to have more "pull" in the market.

Either way these next 6 weeks should be interesting in bitcoin price terms.

I say at the end of August we will have hit $12-$15/bitcoin.

I'll sell a bunch to you today for $11.  All that profit will be yours!

Where did I say I wanted to buy at $11?

How about this I'll accept your offer in October okay? Let's say Halloween (October 31st). I'll buy 50 BTC at $11 each on that day from you.

Deal?

Chicken?

Troll?

Chicken Troll?

 Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

I see that the noble jcpham took you up on your offer.

Room enough for your original friend?  Why be chickenshit over only 50btc, though?  Raise the stakes.  How about 100?  1000?  10,000?  Name your number, and I'll take you to the boards. Smiley

Aww you want in on the deal too?

Okay here I'll buy 0.01 btc from you at $11/btc. Sound good?

LOL

Edit: On Oct 31st, 2012
smoothie
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Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
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Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 05:29:14 PM
#10
Quote from: myrkul on July 17, 2012, 05:25:29 PM
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:51:34 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
I'll accept that $11 /per offer for October 31st. The coins will be waiting on you. You can pay now if you'd like (in full or a partial payment of 25%) and I'll hold on to them for you until that date. I can even find someone to escrow the coins until then if you would like.
Deal. I will buy them on Halloween from you and yes we will use an escrow.

Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 05:22:24 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Until October then, I suppose.  Grin
Yes Oct 31st 2012 we will finish the deal. 50btc for $11 each.

Quoted to ensure posterity. Consider this to be contract witnessed.

+1
myrkul
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
FIAT LIBERTAS RVAT CAELVM
Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 05:25:29 PM
#9
Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 04:51:34 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
I'll accept that $11 /per offer for October 31st. The coins will be waiting on you. You can pay now if you'd like (in full or a partial payment of 25%) and I'll hold on to them for you until that date. I can even find someone to escrow the coins until then if you would like.
Deal. I will buy them on Halloween from you and yes we will use an escrow.

Quote from: smoothie on July 17, 2012, 05:22:24 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Until October then, I suppose.  Grin
Yes Oct 31st 2012 we will finish the deal. 50btc for $11 each.

Quoted to ensure posterity. Consider this to be contract witnessed.
smoothie
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Re: The smile patrol
July 17, 2012, 05:22:24 PM
#8
Quote from: ?? on ??
Until October then, I suppose.  Grin

Yes Oct 31st 2012 we will finish the deal. 50btc for $11 each.
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