Theory on Ghash situation. price manipulation.

ShakyhandsBTCer

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 20, 2014, 09:45:16 AM

Quote from: Este Nuno on June 20, 2014, 04:05:58 AM

Quote from: ABitNut on June 19, 2014, 10:54:29 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 19, 2014, 03:32:40 PM

I also find it strange that one of the bitcoin developers announced selling a huge stash of their bitcoins over this whole 51% fear. I can understand why one would do that, but why announce it? Sounds like a joined effort to spread FUD..

He said he consulted a lawyer and was advised to announce it to prevent any possible liabilities. I'm buying that, it sounds reasonable to me.

Heh, I could see a lawyer saying something like that. But in reality there's no way you could be held liable for something like that. It's like saying I'm going to be selling half my gold because I work at a goldsmith's shop.

either way, I can't think of anything that rips away confidence in Bitcoin more than its own developers starting to split. the good news is, next estimated difficulty change is 20%, and theres no way most of that is coming from Ghash. we need large difficulty changes now to diversify the network.. so keep it comin'

This would only hold to be true if the new miners being brought online are not going to ghash, or are going to ghash at a lower rate then their current network share.

cccarnation

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It didn't really react the last times. Ghash also never approached 50% of the hash rate, but 50% of block rewards over a timeframe of 24 hours, which is a huge difference. Ghash's share of hashing power never significantly exceeded 40%.

QuestionAuthority

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 20, 2014, 09:45:16 AM

Quote from: Este Nuno on June 20, 2014, 04:05:58 AM

Quote from: ABitNut on June 19, 2014, 10:54:29 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 19, 2014, 03:32:40 PM

I also find it strange that one of the bitcoin developers announced selling a huge stash of their bitcoins over this whole 51% fear. I can understand why one would do that, but why announce it? Sounds like a joined effort to spread FUD..

He said he consulted a lawyer and was advised to announce it to prevent any possible liabilities. I'm buying that, it sounds reasonable to me.

Heh, I could see a lawyer saying something like that. But in reality there's no way you could be held liable for something like that. It's like saying I'm going to be selling half my gold because I work at a goldsmith's shop.

either way, I can't think of anything that rips away confidence in Bitcoin more than its own developers starting to split. the good news is, next estimated difficulty change is 20%, and theres no way most of that is coming from Ghash. we need large difficulty changes now to diversify the network.. so keep it comin'

Understand two things:

First: He is raising awareness of a very big problem with Bitcoin. The problem has always been there and we've always known it. LukeJr killed an altcoin (CoiledCoin) using a mining attack just because he could do it so we know it works. I appreciate a warning coming from a respected developer because it carries more weight and people will listen.

Second: As difficulty rises your ability to make money drops. Difficulty will keep increasing. Can it go down? Yes, but take a look at this chart to see how likely that is: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AiFMBvXvL2dtdEZkR2J4eU5rS3B4ei1iUmJxSWNlQ0E

As difficulty increases and the reward drops small time miners will need to go to a pool that has the lowest fees to make a profit over their mining costs. This will allow anyone to take over the network that is willing to charge nothing. You might say, a government wouldn't need to run a pool for free when they could just buy the equipment and destroy the network. Yes, but why would they buy the equipment when they can just use your equipment for a lower cost? Difficulty changes, as you say, will not diversify the network. They will have the reverse effect and concentrate the network toward anyone willing to run a pool and charge nothing.

VolanicEruptor

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Quote from: Este Nuno on June 20, 2014, 04:05:58 AM

Quote from: ABitNut on June 19, 2014, 10:54:29 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 19, 2014, 03:32:40 PM

I also find it strange that one of the bitcoin developers announced selling a huge stash of their bitcoins over this whole 51% fear. I can understand why one would do that, but why announce it? Sounds like a joined effort to spread FUD..

He said he consulted a lawyer and was advised to announce it to prevent any possible liabilities. I'm buying that, it sounds reasonable to me.

Heh, I could see a lawyer saying something like that. But in reality there's no way you could be held liable for something like that. It's like saying I'm going to be selling half my gold because I work at a goldsmith's shop.

either way, I can't think of anything that rips away confidence in Bitcoin more than its own developers starting to split. the good news is, next estimated difficulty change is 20%, and theres no way most of that is coming from Ghash. we need large difficulty changes now to diversify the network.. so keep it comin'

Este Nuno

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amarha

Quote from: ABitNut on June 19, 2014, 10:54:29 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 19, 2014, 03:32:40 PM

I also find it strange that one of the bitcoin developers announced selling a huge stash of their bitcoins over this whole 51% fear. I can understand why one would do that, but why announce it? Sounds like a joined effort to spread FUD..

He said he consulted a lawyer and was advised to announce it to prevent any possible liabilities. I'm buying that, it sounds reasonable to me.

Heh, I could see a lawyer saying something like that. But in reality there's no way you could be held liable for something like that. It's like being required to say I'm going to be selling half my gold because I work at a goldsmith's shop.

ABitNut

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 19, 2014, 03:32:40 PM

I also find it strange that one of the bitcoin developers announced selling a huge stash of their bitcoins over this whole 51% fear. I can understand why one would do that, but why announce it? Sounds like a joined effort to spread FUD..

He said he consulted a lawyer and was advised to announce it to prevent any possible liabilities. I'm buying that, it sounds reasonable to me.

fryarminer

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on June 19, 2014, 03:32:40 PM

I also find it strange that one of the bitcoin developers announced selling a huge stash of their bitcoins over this whole 51% fear. I can understand why one would do that, but why announce it? Sounds like a joined effort to spread FUD..

This is an excellent point!!

ShakyhandsBTCer

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It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin

Quote from: fryarminer on June 19, 2014, 02:34:03 PM

Quote from: eid on June 19, 2014, 01:05:51 PM

Quote from: Este Nuno on June 19, 2014, 12:12:45 PM

One thing that I don't understand is how people buying Cex.io shares effects Ghash's total hashing power.

The way I'm thinking of it is that this is hashing power that's already 'working' as it were and people are just buying the rights to mining that's already being done anyway. Is this not correct?

I guess when they get more revenue, they buy more hardware.

That would make sense. But the hashing power that they do not sell I am sure they use to hash for themselves. They wouldn't turn it off until someone buys it.

They would keep their unsold GH/s running as long as they produce more revenue then electric costs.

VolanicEruptor

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I also find it strange that one of the bitcoin developers announced selling a huge stash of their bitcoins over this whole 51% fear. I can understand why one would do that, but why announce it? Sounds like a joined effort to spread FUD..

Este Nuno

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amarha

Quote from: eid on June 19, 2014, 01:05:51 PM

Quote from: Este Nuno on June 19, 2014, 12:12:45 PM

One thing that I don't understand is how people buying Cex.io shares effects Ghash's total hashing power.

The way I'm thinking of it is that this is hashing power that's already 'working' as it were and people are just buying the rights to mining that's already being done anyway. Is this not correct?

I guess when they get more revenue, they buy more hardware.

Yeah, that's a good point.

By buying shares on Cex.io you're indirectly contributing to their hashrate in a delayed fashion.

fryarminer

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Quote from: eid on June 19, 2014, 01:05:51 PM

Quote from: Este Nuno on June 19, 2014, 12:12:45 PM

One thing that I don't understand is how people buying Cex.io shares effects Ghash's total hashing power.

The way I'm thinking of it is that this is hashing power that's already 'working' as it were and people are just buying the rights to mining that's already being done anyway. Is this not correct?

I guess when they get more revenue, they buy more hardware.

That would make sense. But the hashing power that they do not sell I am sure they use to hash for themselves. They wouldn't turn it off until someone buys it.

eid

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Quote from: Este Nuno on June 19, 2014, 12:12:45 PM

One thing that I don't understand is how people buying Cex.io shares effects Ghash's total hashing power.

The way I'm thinking of it is that this is hashing power that's already 'working' as it were and people are just buying the rights to mining that's already being done anyway. Is this not correct?

I guess when they get more revenue, they buy more hardware.

Este Nuno

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1000

amarha

One thing that I don't understand is how people buying Cex.io shares effects Ghash's total hashing power.

The way I'm thinking of it is that this is hashing power that's already 'working' as it were and people are just buying the rights to mining that's already being done anyway. Is this not correct?

Guido

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Quote from: fryarminer on June 19, 2014, 06:59:14 AM

I absolutely agree with the OP. I was thinking of posting the same thing myself.

Ghash reaches 51%, price of bitcoin crashes.
Ghash suddenly drops to around 30%.
Price of bitcoin goes back up.
Now Ghash is getting closer to 51% again.
Watch btc price crash again.

Someone is manipulating the btc price to keep it in the 500s.

btc should be around $1000 by now with all the good acceptance it's had lately: Apple, Google, Yahoo, Expedia, etc., etc.... Even the Feds have given it recognition as something they can auction off.

+100

BitCoinDream

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Quote from: desired_username on June 19, 2014, 04:09:02 AM

Quote from: Willisius on June 17, 2014, 09:37:55 PM

Now folks are losing faith, including Peter Todd

1.) Who the fuck is Peter Todd?

2.) New folks tend to buy CEX.IO shares or mine directly at Ghash because that's the biggest.

Human ~~stupidity~~ greed...

Welcome to free market Wink

fryarminer

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Activity: 686

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I absolutely agree with the OP. I was thinking of posting the same thing myself.

Ghash reaches 51%, price of bitcoin crashes.
Ghash suddenly drops to around 30%.
Price of bitcoin goes back up.
Now Ghash is getting closer to 51% again.
Watch btc price crash again.

Someone is manipulating the btc price to keep it in the 500s.

btc should be around $1000 by now with all the good acceptance it's had lately: Apple, Google, Yahoo, Expedia, etc., etc.... Even the Feds have given it recognition as something they can auction off.

desired_username

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Quote from: Willisius on June 17, 2014, 09:37:55 PM

Now folks are losing faith, including Peter Todd

1.) Who the fuck is Peter Todd?

2.) New folks tend to buy CEX.IO shares or mine directly at Ghash because that's the biggest.

Human stupidity...

ShakyhandsBTCer

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It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on June 17, 2014, 03:15:09 PM

26% of the hash rate is unknown and 32% is Ghash.IO. Their hash rate dropped the exact percentage that unknown increased. I'm sure happy that one evil actor doesn't have control of most of the mining power. I feel much better now.

https://blockchain.info/pools

Bitfury pulled a large portion of their mining capacity. They said they were going to redirect to other pools, however they likely started to solo-mine.

boliu

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wont be surprising that most of unknown are ghash

bitshul

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Isn't it quite likely that big miners have intentionally pulled their capacity away from GHash and are now appearing as 'unknown'?

I know that if I had mining resources in a pool that was close to 51%, I would think about moving them to protect the network (as long as I didn't lose too much by doing so).

Topic: Theory on Ghash situation. price manipulation. (Read 2869 times)