I don't get it. With the 5k sellof, why didn't price drop more on Finex? Isn't this fishy?
Or are there dark orders in their orderbook?
Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 14. (Read 62097 times)
The swap rate is falling fast. May reach 0.03%/day.
I'll admit that I was wrong. I thought the credit bubble would hold. So far we've seen a partial unravel. If the price were to drop to say 440, we'd see another small to major crash (at least on Bitfinex).
impressive thread, very prophetic.
side note, what's the FDIC doing about this?
side note, what's the FDIC doing about this?
We had another liquidation despite no new Bitfinex low,
My strong suspicion is now that the report we got about someone's position not having been liquidated at the prior cascade even though his liquidation price was met was a common phenomenon. I'm guessing that Bitfinex decided to split one single liquidation somehow to limit its impact. How else would we have ~5k BTC sold at once even though the price did not go below the former 451 low?
Anyway, a decrease from 30 million to 21 million is quite a deleveraging. Things are much less unhealthy now, in my view.
My strong suspicion is now that the report we got about someone's position not having been liquidated at the prior cascade even though his liquidation price was met was a common phenomenon. I'm guessing that Bitfinex decided to split one single liquidation somehow to limit its impact. How else would we have ~5k BTC sold at once even though the price did not go below the former 451 low?
Anyway, a decrease from 30 million to 21 million is quite a deleveraging. Things are much less unhealthy now, in my view.
Down to 21m now!
Okay so what's the general sentiment over here about the recent developments? The credit bubble seems more or less alive and well, still. Do you think that amount of loans will ever stop to exist? Could it really be impeding another rapid growth of the Bitcoin price (bubble)?
I think we won't see much downside from here. The swap rates have returned to sane levels, around .06-.08% per day, about half of the peak rates. This is still a lot per year but its not nearly as much as before. With lower interest, there is less selling pressure from long positions. Also I feel like some people loaning money will take this opportunity to buy cheap capitulation priced coins, as they won't be able to make as much from loaning the money out anymore. Overall I am very satisfied with this development; I think it was very healthy for the price of bitcoin and removed some weak hands and unskilled speculators.
i'm not sure how much we can glean from those numbers (and i don't know how honest BFX is about them either). we stopped at the 450 level, but it looks like from bfxda there is still 9-10 million maybe (just eyeballing) taken out above 450. so if we break that, gonna have to consider the possibility of more margin call-fueled drops, depending how far we go and how long swaps have been bleeding people.
but imo, better to look at the TA than swaps anyway. i think you'll see signals before the selloff begins.... still looks bearish from here.
Begging forgiveness for the newb question which has probably been answered a million times:
How can bitfinex collect on the loans? What enforcement power do they have?
How can bitfinex collect on the loans? What enforcement power do they have?
There is something called margin call and force liquidation to protect the exchange and lender.
I think we won't see much downside from here. The swap rates have returned to sane levels, around .06-.08% per day, about half of the peak rates. This is still a lot per year but its not nearly as much as before. With lower interest, there is less selling pressure from long positions. Also I feel like some people loaning money will take this opportunity to buy cheap capitulation priced coins, as they won't be able to make as much from loaning the money out anymore. Overall I am very satisfied with this development; I think it was very healthy for the price of bitcoin and removed some weak hands and unskilled speculators.
Maybe... before the crash, yesterday, though, the spreads weren't all that crazy either... just the amount of leverage. The leverage has stayed pretty flat which is good, but I think there is a lot more room to burn.
Feel like you are losing your shirt... contact the CFPB... http://www.consumerfinance.gov/complaint/
P.S. -- this is a joke.
P.S. -- this is a joke.
Begging forgiveness for the newb question which has probably been answered a million times:
How can bitfinex collect on the loans? What enforcement power do they have?
How can bitfinex collect on the loans? What enforcement power do they have?
enforcement power? the fact is that you are but an entry on a ledger to them. (without implying anything about fractional reserve
)now, if you want to talk about usury law, i could foresee some legal issues (without knowing the details), but the question is, who is regulating them, and would anyone do anything about it? still the wild west here!
Begging forgiveness for the newb question which has probably been answered a million times:
How can bitfinex collect on the loans? What enforcement power do they have?
How can bitfinex collect on the loans? What enforcement power do they have?
I believe they said in the past that they bought the code and based the platform on it, but that the actual code the platform is built on was written from scratch.
But that doesn't make any sense. Why would they pay for something they didn't use?
That was worded confusingly.
What I've heard is that the code was bought from Bitcoinica, but that it was entirely rewritten. (e.g. buy the code as "inspiration" and build platform from scratch)But this is all hearsay, anyway.
Looking at the enormous quantity of longs on Bitfinex I would have expected a MUCH bigger crash, maybe it's still gonna happen.
This is nothing we haven't seen before...
I mean, still 24M in longs, who the fuck is still long now? from where? still from months ago?
This is nothing we haven't seen before...
I mean, still 24M in longs, who the fuck is still long now? from where? still from months ago?
Based on the outstanding loan from yesterday, I am going to venture a guess that at least one whale has bite the dust.
I do not think the down trend is over, if the price hit 350-400 price level, there will be more whale going bust.
I sincerely hope bitfinex is not using customer money to trade for their own account.
I think we won't see much downside from here. The swap rates have returned to sane levels, around .06-.08% per day, about half of the peak rates. This is still a lot per year but its not nearly as much as before. With lower interest, there is less selling pressure from long positions. Also I feel like some people loaning money will take this opportunity to buy cheap capitulation priced coins, as they won't be able to make as much from loaning the money out anymore. Overall I am very satisfied with this development; I think it was very healthy for the price of bitcoin and removed some weak hands and unskilled speculators.
Maybe... before the crash, yesterday, though, the spreads weren't all that crazy either... just the amount of leverage. The leverage has stayed pretty flat which is good, but I think there is a lot more room to burn.
I think we won't see much downside from here. The swap rates have returned to sane levels, around .06-.08% per day, about half of the peak rates. This is still a lot per year but its not nearly as much as before. With lower interest, there is less selling pressure from long positions. Also I feel like some people loaning money will take this opportunity to buy cheap capitulation priced coins, as they won't be able to make as much from loaning the money out anymore. Overall I am very satisfied with this development; I think it was very healthy for the price of bitcoin and removed some weak hands and unskilled speculators.
Don't get Zhou Tonged!
Code:
Bam! Bam! (Zhou Tong man)
Now You got No funds (No funds)
Cuz you got Zhou Tonged!!!
This Move puts me in position
So put 5k get 10k leverage (Thats right)
If I go long then I make Big Profits (Cmon man)
If the price drops then I Lose all my shit (Aw shit)
ZhouTonged!!!
What a Bum Bum
Bam Bam Dilla
Now You got No funds (No funds)
Cuz you got Zhou Tonged!!!
This Move puts me in position
So put 5k get 10k leverage (Thats right)
If I go long then I make Big Profits (Cmon man)
If the price drops then I Lose all my shit (Aw shit)
ZhouTonged!!!
What a Bum Bum
Bam Bam Dilla
I believe they said in the past that they bought the code and based the platform on it, but that the actual code the platform is built on was written from scratch.
But that doesn't make any sense. Why would they pay for something they didn't use?
That was worded confusingly.
What I've heard is that the code was bought from Bitcoinica, but that it was entirely rewritten. (e.g. buy the code as "inspiration" and build platform from scratch)But this is all hearsay, anyway.
God, where have I seen this all before...?
The best thing about it? Bitfinex is actually built on Bitcoinica code, although I hear they changed a whole lot of it.LOL!
at least they got rid of this guy:
oh, end for the old times sake or anyone who "got zhou-tonged": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z9Jwp2x86o
Man the term "zhou-tonged" should be in websters.. (just checked wikipedia it's not there)..
I think that term will stick with me for the rest of my life
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