THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... - page 5.

tadamichi

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武士道

Quote from: HardFacts on June 21, 2022, 03:13:58 PM

WRONG

Bitcoins run up in price was during the MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING by the Federal Reserve that followed the financial crisis of 2008. Bitcoin really started trading on any significant scale when things were near rock bottom already, and financial assets only went up due to Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3, and zero interest rates...

I expect Bitcoin will CRASH HARD during a financial crisis, just like it did in March 2020, but WORSE...

The time I would consider purchasing Bitcoin is IF IF Bitcoin survives the crash, it will be very very cheap. Bitcoin, stocks, and all financial assents will have nowhere to go but up when Federal Reserve starts massive money printing again.... This would be speculation on my part, make quick money if it goes up again, then get out.

So your strategy is rather to worship the printer than to find a way out of it, while being a crash prophet at the same time, sounds inspiring. And then you call other people emotional.

Idk if you’re aware that your crash strategy requires huge amounts of capital to pull of, because it’s hard to stay liquid during economic collapse. Also you can’t know the political consequences it will have on assets, there’s no bailouts for shrimps. You definitely have a winner’s mentality and long term vision, you’re outsmarting the whole world.

You probably already lost more opportunities to make profit by waiting for a crash, than an actual crash can bring you. And in the years you wait for crashes, inflation will already outrun you.

Quote from: HardFacts on June 21, 2022, 03:13:58 PM

I do NOT view Bitcoin as a long term investment.

This is a positive note, with your motivations you just mentioned.

HardFacts

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Quote from: DooMAD on June 21, 2022, 10:42:36 AM

Given that Bitcoin was born out of a global financial crisis, I'd imagine it'll do just fine.

WRONG

Bitcoins run up in price was during the MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING by the Federal Reserve that followed the financial crisis of 2008. Bitcoin really started trading on any significant scale when things were near rock bottom already, and financial assets only went up due to Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3, and zero interest rates...

I expect Bitcoin will CRASH HARD during a financial crisis, just like it did in March 2020, but WORSE...

The time I would consider purchasing Bitcoin is IF IF Bitcoin survives the crash, it will be very very cheap. Bitcoin, stocks, and all financial assents will have nowhere to go but up when Federal Reserve starts massive money printing again.... This would be speculation on my part, make quick money if it goes up again, then get out. I do NOT view Bitcoin as a long term investment.

buwaytress

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Quote from: HardFacts on June 20, 2022, 10:10:25 AM

I also REALLY thought that institutional money going into Bitcoin would change everything Shocked

Institutions were starting to get very interested in the run up to Bitcoins highs... But that is not going to happen now, almost no institution is going to risk it now that they have seen a fast crash and Bitcoin losing more than 66 % of its value...

Michael Saylor will most likely be getting a margin call soon that will collapse Micro Strategies. This will be a giant, red flag, massive warning to any company thinking about investing in Bitcoin.

I never did. I understand the excitement behind it but institutional interest in Bitcoin actually quietly ramped up in 2016, and all the way up to 2017. I only got clued in because I was just starting up my freelancing at the time and there were curiously a lot of jobs with PEs and hedge funds and offshore companies readying themselves up for a toe-dipping into Bitcoin (not crypto, mind you, Bitcoin).

These guys weren't going to wait for some ETF to get in and load up!

They are what caused the 2017 top, and ensuing crash over the next 2+ years. So point is, they already saw a crash, lived through it, weathered it, and then other institutions became public in the last rally.

66% down? They've lived through 85%, they expect it.

You'll still get the stragglers coming in for the next rally, before the behemoths of old money also shake the dust off and concede.

ChrisPop

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Quote from: Welsh on June 21, 2022, 03:21:36 AM

I don't recall anyone ever advertising Bitcoin as a stable currency, and institutions/companies would've absolutely known this. In fact, I actually suspect this is why some of them got involved in the first place. El Salvador for example, likely got involved anticipating a upward trend, so they can better their country very quickly. Obviously, at the moment the opposite has happened, but if they were to hold on long enough to see x2/x3 their money, they could really launch their country, quicker than they would be able to elsewhere.

Perhaps I'm not up to the news but I did a quick search on Google (a shallow one though) and it looks like El Salvador hasn't issued their Bitcoin bonds yet. They are still blocked by bureaucracy and politics as far I see. If they can manage to successfully market the bonds at these prices they would be well positioned for the next bull market. Well, that's not a sure thing of course, but yet 5x'ing their money when BTC gets to $100k would be quite a treat Cheesy

Quote from: Welsh on June 21, 2022, 03:21:36 AM

They'll be back, but the volatility has always been a issue for companies to start accepting Bitcoin. It's why the likes of Steam, Wikipedia and various other companies pulled out after a certain period. This isn't anything new at all.

Aren't there payment processors out there who instantly change Bitcoin to fiat in the backend for a fee? I know at least one that offers a solution like this for ecommerce websites. This way businesses who do not want to stack up on Bitcoin can enable users pay using crypto and offset the volatility risk.

BlackHatCoiner

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Farewell, Leo

Quote from: HardFacts on June 21, 2022, 08:41:08 AM

The one unknown is how Bitcoin will do in a financial crisis...

Actually, that's known. Bitcoin was born in the 2008 financial crisis (a year later to be precise) as said above, and got away with it pretty neatly. You can look on the charts, it's been one of the astutest investments since the beginning of the crisis. It has also experienced financial cathode, which began in late 2012 IRC and it is now experiencing depression.

The only thing it hasn't yet experienced is prosperity.

DooMAD

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Quote from: HardFacts on June 21, 2022, 08:41:08 AM

DooMAD had the best point out of anyone in this whole thread... Bitcoin could go up again when the Federal Reserve reverses course, and starts money printing and blowing up the stock market bubble again. Bitcoin has been following the NASDAQ pretty well.

To be clear, that's not the point I was making. My argument was that whatever the Fed might momentarily be doing, it doesn't instill any confidence on my end that the US (or any other nations for that matter) are turning their economies around any time soon.

I'm not making any predictions about Bitcoin's short-term price movements or the impact the Fed may or may not be having on it.

Quote from: HardFacts on June 21, 2022, 08:41:08 AM

The one unknown is how Bitcoin will do in a financial crisis...

Given that Bitcoin was born out of a global financial crisis, I'd imagine it'll do just fine.

HardFacts

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on June 21, 2022, 02:43:01 AM

Logic never was his strong point.

I am one of the ONLY people here using Logic, most people here are completely and utterly emotionally invested in Bitcoin...

DooMAD had the best point out of anyone in this whole thread... Bitcoin could go up again when the Federal Reserve reverses course, and starts money printing and blowing up the stock market bubble again. Bitcoin has been following the NASDAQ pretty well.

The one unknown is how Bitcoin will do in a financial crisis... If Bitcoin survives, I would look at buying some Bitcoins when the Federal Reserve starts the money printing again. Bitcoin could shoot up like crazy if it does not collapse completely before then Grin

Welsh

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Quote from: HardFacts on June 20, 2022, 10:32:00 AM

Of course they knew about huge volatility. BUT, Bitcoin was being advertised to institutions as now more stable, DIGITAL GOLD, INFLATION HEDGE, and that the huge crashes were a thing of the past.

That narrative is now dead. It would take a very long time for institutional money to trust Bitcoin as being stable again...

I don't recall anyone ever advertising Bitcoin as a stable currency, and institutions/companies would've absolutely known this. In fact, I actually suspect this is why some of them got involved in the first place. El Salvador for example, likely got involved anticipating a upward trend, so they can better their country very quickly. Obviously, at the moment the opposite has happened, but if they were to hold on long enough to see x2/x3 their money, they could really launch their country, quicker than they would be able to elsewhere.

They'll be back, but the volatility has always been a issue for companies to start accepting Bitcoin. It's why the likes of Steam, Wikipedia and various other companies pulled out after a certain period. This isn't anything new at all.

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: DooMAD on June 20, 2022, 07:12:14 PM

So then why all the song and dance about how this time is different "because tight money" if you think they're going to abandon tight money? Kind of undermines your whole argument, doesn't it?

Logic never was his strong point.

Quote from: HardFacts on June 20, 2022, 07:32:23 PM

The bad part is that is where out of control inflation, and possibly hyper inflation of the US Dollar sets in.

Sounds like a great argument to get out of USD and USD based investment vehicles, and in to something like, oh I don't know, bitcoin. Wink

Quote from: ChrisPop on June 21, 2022, 01:38:11 AM

I don't want to put straw on fire, but if people actually read the terms & conditions of Celsius, it was clearly stated that Celsius can/will lend your crypto to third parties.

Absolutely. All these platforms are the same. The next to go I think will be BlockFi, which has Terms of Use nearly word-for-word identical to those of Celsius. And don't forget exchanges like Coinbase, which file legally binding SEC documents stating that all their users are treated as "unsecured creditors". But their CEO made a tweet saying funds are safu, so nothing to worry about! Roll Eyes

ChrisPop

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on June 19, 2022, 10:44:53 AM

Go and ask all the people who were getting 20% returns on Celsius how "guaranteed" their returns are. The fact is that nothing which is offering those ridiculous returns is risk free, as thousands of people have recently found out by losing everything.

Exactly! I was extremely reluctant of participating in Celsius offerings. Realistically speaking such a public business with wide reach like Celsius offering 10-20% APY must raise some red flags. In traditional finance higher returns = higher risk. While that might be true in popular, widely advertised opportunities/businesses/assets, risk is subjective to the knowledge and experience of the individual.

I don't want to put straw on fire, but if people actually read the terms & conditions of Celsius, it was clearly stated that Celsius can/will lend your crypto to third parties. But let's be serious, how many retail "investors" actually read the T&Cs? That is why Celsius had a massive focus on their marketing game --> Offers upon offers, bonuses over bonuses just to put your money in there.

NotATether

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Well Peter Schiff's staunchest lieutenant has been suspiciously silent for the past 12 months, I wonder if he has been hiding inside his GOLD RESERVE BURROWS while we were experiencing the great bull run? Grin

Quote from: HardFacts on June 18, 2022, 06:40:12 PM

Now is the time when we see worthless companies and worthless Cryptos collapse. Indeed, several crypto lenders have already collapsed and even more are in the process of collapsing. The Federal Reserve must fight inflation and will NOT be saving the markets this time. Bitcoin has ZERO intrinsic value, it is only worth what someone else will pay for it. Without the speculative bubble of the past 14 years to support Bitcoin, will go close to its value of ZERO.

You are in your usual pessamistic mood about BTC, I wonder why you didn't mention such things as monkeypox and forced FEMA tents as one of the causes of our future downfall? Tongue

But nobody's going to miss the crypto lenders and speculators, they were never part of the movement. People only saw them as the heads because they had the most money. Now that the heads are cut, watch the weeds paradoxially grow in grassroots.

HardFacts

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Quote from: DooMAD on June 20, 2022, 07:12:14 PM

So then why all the song and dance about how this time is different "because tight money" if you think they're going to abandon tight money? Kind of undermines your whole argument, doesn't it?

You are correct... The Federal Reserve reversing course and printing massive amounts of money could make the Stock Market and Bitcoin go up by a huge amount again, just like March 2020...

The bad part is that is where out of control inflation, and possibly hyper inflation of the US Dollar sets in.

DooMAD

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Quote from: HardFacts on June 20, 2022, 11:40:53 AM

The Federal Reserve will absolutely reverse course, cut interest rates back to zero, and do massive money printing again when the financial crisis starts later this year. Timing is impossible to predict, but I do not think that it will not take two years, my best guess would be this fall of 2022.

So then why all the song and dance about how this time is different "because tight money" if you think they're going to abandon tight money? Kind of undermines your whole argument, doesn't it?

BitcoinGirl.Club

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Farewell LEO: o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: Haunebu on June 19, 2022, 04:50:28 AM

BTC is a cryptocurrency that always bounces back no matter what which is another fact that I have learnt over the years.

Bitcoin from zero to $20k at current price. Does it looks like Cryptos collapse? One can argue it collapsed from $65k to this price today. But haven't we seen this many times that we can not even finish counting? OP seemed to coming from ATH to current price. Bitcoin does not have other value for him rather than compering it with worthless fiat.

HardFacts, I consider it this way, 1 BTC is 1 BTC. It has survived against every odd from last over 10 to 11 years. As long as internet exists it will survive. An email seemed impossible for people who were in postal service. Internet was once a bubble. Give bitcoin one more decade, there will be no talk about its disappearing.

Hispo

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on June 20, 2022, 10:41:37 AM

Quote from: HardFacts on June 20, 2022, 10:32:00 AM

-snip-

It is so interesting the fact this guy woke up after a long period of inactivity in his golden mansion earned with his flawless market instinct to warn us all (helpless investors trapped in a crypto "cult") to stop shoving our money into a furnance. Roll Eyes

You gotta give some credit to this act of pure altruism, o_e_l_e_o.
Other people is his position would enjoy their fortune selfishly and in silence instead bringing some sense to us. Wink

HardFacts

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Quote from: DooMAD on June 19, 2022, 12:14:33 PM

And they'll abandon "tight money" the moment it suits them. I give it two years tops before the rampant printing resumes.

Consider me "warned". Roll Eyes

Hi DooMAD,

It is good to see you still here after all this time !!! I have to give you an A for team spirt and persistence

I also agree with you on this one. The Federal Reserve will absolutely reverse course, cut interest rates back to zero, and do massive money printing again when the financial crisis starts later this year. Timing is impossible to predict, but I do not think that it will not take two years, my best guess would be this fall of 2022.

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: HardFacts on June 20, 2022, 10:32:00 AM

BUT, Bitcoin was being advertised to institutions as now more stable, DIGITAL GOLD, INFLATION HEDGE, and that the huge crashes were a thing of the past.

Yes, because huge financial institutions base their investment decisions on which ads show up in the Facebook feeds of their employees and whatever the top cRyPtO iNfLuEnCeRs are shilling on YouTube that week. Roll Eyes

Stop embarrassing yourself with this wild and obviously bullshit speculation. Institutions knew exactly what they are buying, and the smart ones are buying more.

You spouted the exact same nonsense that bitcoin was dead and everyone should buy gold instead 2 years ago when bitcoin was ~$8,000. I'll see you again in a few years when bitcoin "dumps" to $50k and you show up again to tell everyone it's definitely dead this time. Roll Eyes

HardFacts

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on June 20, 2022, 10:23:29 AM

Are you honestly suggesting that at absolutely no point in time, any large institutions which were investing in bitcoin looked at the price charts prior to the last year and realized that bitcoin is prone to big swings in price?

Of course they knew about huge volatility. BUT, Bitcoin was being advertised to institutions as now more stable, DIGITAL GOLD, INFLATION HEDGE, and that the huge crashes were a thing of the past.

That narrative is now dead. It would take a very long time for institutional money to trust Bitcoin as being stable again...

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: HardFacts on June 20, 2022, 10:10:25 AM

But that is not going to happen now, almost no institution is going to risk it now that they have seen a fast crash and Bitcoin losing more than 66 % of its value...

Are you honestly suggesting that at absolutely no point in time, any large institutions which were investing in bitcoin looked at the price charts prior to the last year and realized that bitcoin is prone to big swings in price? In among the entire investing arms of firms like MicroStrategy, Grayscale, Tesla, Galaxy, Voyager, Square, and countless others, there wasn't a single employee which knew that bitcoin sometimes goes down in price? Not a single person which clicked on Coinmarketcap and said "Hey boss, look at this chart." This is an insane suggestion, even more insane than all the Peter Schiff nonsense you parrot without a second though. Anyone with half a brain knew that a dump was coming at some point. Bitcoin was never just going rise exponentially indefinitely.

This dip is a boon for institutions. If they were buying at $60k, then they are definitely buying at $20k. And all the newbies panic selling are the ones handing their hard earned bitcoin over to these institutions at discounted rates.

HardFacts

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Quote from: Z-tight on June 19, 2022, 12:16:13 PM

Let me get to it, i thought when we started having institutional investors coming into our network in their numbers that it would bring some stability,

I also REALLY thought that institutional money going into Bitcoin would change everything Shocked

Institutions were starting to get very interested in the run up to Bitcoins highs... But that is not going to happen now, almost no institution is going to risk it now that they have seen a fast crash and Bitcoin losing more than 66 % of its value...

Michael Saylor will most likely be getting a margin call soon that will collapse Micro Strategies. This will be a giant, red flag, massive warning to any company thinking about investing in Bitcoin.

Topic: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... - page 5. (Read 1577 times)