Topic: This graphic was posted 3 years ago and predicted the $10,000 date (Read 1262 times)

Nope. They really are just betting on the price. No bitcoin involved whatsoever.

But they need to SELL bitcoin to make cash on the short side?
They cannot sell it before they have it... unless they can lend them like with stocks

No the futures will be cash settled. No real bitcoin needed.

But how can they short? They cannot lend coins, they need to buy them before dumping them? And they need to buy tens of thousands and spread them over different exchanges...

I say this is mostly FUD!
Why should they short the shit out of corn when there is so much more money to be made on the long side?? I'm sure Wall Street is going to inflate Bitcoin as much as the stockmarket. There is BTC, a still very empty storage tank which could grow so much more in value. They will long it!
Shorters will get rekt imo!
Bitcoin will teach them a tough lesson. Honeybadger does not care!

Looks like someone is really nervous about current bitcoin prices and they want to facilitate shorting bitcoin:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-04/the-next-big-short-hedge-funds-prepare-to-trade-against-bitcoin

We'll see how it goes. We have certainty whales on our side (those of us that are near %100 BTC just want to see it go higher) which will fight the shorts and try to liquidate them. But its clear someone up there wants to short it into oblivion, we'll see who wins. Everyone that has been calling tops for 2017 has been proven wrong thus far, it just keeps going higher. The psychological "collectible" effect of the 21 million limit is very strong and creates a permabull market now that a lot of people are catching up with it. Im on a position where I don't really care if there is a crash, I wouldn't lose money and i know long term we are going higher, would liquidate some of my alts to buy cheaper anyway.

That chart has so far obviously been very accurate in terms of long term growth. Though it seems 2018 and 2019 might be the landslide and I think Bitcoin will head above the chart line for the next few years, starting now.

The heard has just started its run and we can hear them from afar. And as far as the bear's no, they can't disturbed anything right now, 2018 will remain very bullish whether this kind of prediction exists or not. As I said, 2017 and breaking $10,000 is just the beginning for bitcoin and it will make another milestone I'm pretty sure of that. So we all need to be prepared when the you hear the heards amazing run. Wall Streets, financial institutions and now CME futures contracts then Nasdaq too in Q2 of 2018. They have already set a precedence and other's will follow suit as well. Let's see it the graph and the predictions holds true till the end of 2018. And we can all come back here again and discuss. 

Yeah it seems we are going to get some serious bulls in the next year and while it is doubtful the prediction in the chart is going to become true at the expected time frame I think we can all agree we are about to see one of the biggest bull runs on bitcoin history, so we need to get ready and be prepared to sell went bitcoin reaches our target price.

Yes incredible, the prediction is matched. People know bitcoin will be increase every years.
So now many investors believe bitcoin will make more value in profit for them. It will help the price up.

That was quite an insanely accurate $10k prediction. The price at the beginning of 2017 was off A LOT though... And basically everything else between then and now. Only their $10k prediction was accurate...

So, although this is quite an impressive prediction, it's not useful for the future, as it's not accurate most of the time.

If it's correct, I'd be very happy though 

I am sure that bitcoin price will grow another few years. It seems to me that the reason for this is not only the whales. It involved the American government. Perhaps they began to turn the bitcoin bubble in order to gather in it the entire American debt and collapse prices. This will allow them to zero out us debt. We will wait for the capitalization of bitcoin will amount to billions.

Funny how everyone was so negative about the projections made by the OP back then. Right now, almost everyone--including the non-believers at Wall Street--are now looking to bank on the bitcoin craze with their own investments. I feel like everyone right now is on the verge of making stupid decisions just so that they wouldn't miss on the craze of bitcoin they ignored back when it was struggling to get a boost in 2014. We're on the stage of people pouring over their hard-earned money into something they don't fully understand because successful investors (with testaments) tell them so. This will still cause another massive gains in prices and could still follow the projections made by the OP of the graph.

The momentum hasn't shifted for the bears' favor yet. This is all bulls' game for the next years to come and Wall Street would make it look more promising.

It got the trend right. As for the "big whales" - the hedge funds have billions at their disposal and dwarf all the whales. And most hedge funds are kicking themselves this year because they missed the big trade of 2017.

Ok this is my overall view:

In late 2018 to early 2019, fancy LN wallets that even your grandma will be able to use will be starting to be widespread, which will look like this:

https://webmshare.com/OXNbm

This will alleviate people complaining about high fees and slow transaction times. Note that most people are idiots that leave their coins in Coinbase, so if they just want to transact bitcoin, they just care about the bitcoin going from A to B really fast and cheap, and these wallets will allow for that. Anyone with real capital in bitcoin doesn't care about that, but even myself if I wanted to pay 10 bucks with bitcoin, would use LN because I don't really care that much about having army grade encryption + maximized decentralization to send 10 bucks around the world. LN may be a decent tradeoff for such small amounts. So with the mainstream users happy, and with the big capital also happy because no blocksize increase, I think we could keep going higher. Of course it's yet to be seen how viable this is to maintain with 1MB as more and more blocks get filled with LN transactions and then we'll have new drama when the whales oppose to hardfork once again to increase the blocksize but we'll see how it goes.

Of course the segwit risk is still there... but I haven't seen "the whales" supporting BCH and are staying legacy, so they must have a plan and it doesn't include altcoins. In any case im keeping a decent amount of BCH because I have a gut feeling which may be ridiculous but here we go: I think CSW has satoshi's keys..  (or some) even if he isn't satoshi, he was part of the thing. These funds must be locked somewhere until X years, maybe to avoid tax related stuff since after 10 years in some countries tax crimes expire (I think). Another reason why I think he was involved is because satoshi released bitcoin on windows, and he comes across as a "windows guy". And of course, I doubt CSW is stupid enough to try to pull a satoshi and take it this far if he didn't knew that the real part of the satoshi "team" wasn't dead, or allowed him to play this role, otherwise he would be at constant risk of being ridiculed by the real satoshi.
If he (or they) moves some coins in 2020, BCH may pump and who knows the consequences of that. Of course maybe this is incredibly stupid and nothing happens, it's just another theory that I have. If after 2020 CSW has not provided real proof of being satoshi, then we can totally discard that he has anything but a bluff.

Pretty incredible but given all of the many graphs and predictions it's pretty likely one of them was going to get it right. Still it will be interesting to follow his graph for a while and see how well it holds up for the following months or years.

My hands were shaking when I saw this graph as if it tells me to grab more BTC. This man nailed it straight, is this man still alive until now ? I really want to shake his hands and give me my personal regards.
Then if the graph he showed to us will predict the price of bitcoin in 2020 and in the next more years to come, whta would become of us if only we can hold for at least 10 BTC. He was hacked recently and now resolving the issue, we wait for further notice.

Also notice the corrections have been getting shallower and shorter in duration.

https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd (choose 1D chart time period)

Btw set the above chart to logarithmic Y axis to get a less emotional view of the recent price action!

-40%: June 11 - July 16
-40%: Sept 1 - 15
-33%: Nov 7 - 12
-22%: Nov 29 - 30 (presuming the bottom of the correction is already in)

Thus if the $8800 bottom of current correction holds, then we can see that the bubble is accelerating (i.e. corrections are shallower and shorter in duration), so it means the blow-off top is likely coming now in December.

However, if we instead stall here at this level with a horizontal trading range, then we would be forming a new plateau from which to rise higher in 2018. In that case, the altcoins would likely accelerate w.r.t. BTC as they normally do when BTC stalls.

I’m hoping for the stall because I hold some altcoins. Given that altcoins such as LTC have not yet made their run to 0.03 - 0.5, I think it is possible that BTC needs to plateau first. However, altcoins such as BCH already had significant runs to 0.3+. There is so much going on with Wallstreet (Mainstreet of the investor world) coming into cryptocurrency, I have a difficult time believing this level is the blow off top already. However, I do think BTC is a bit hyperventilated and ahead of itself, and probably needs to stall for a while here. If so, then my altcoins should do well, as BTC investors diversify out temporary.

Possible reasons for the plateauing and stall would be that BTC has finally reached the 10X threshold from the last bubble peak 2013. $10,000 was a pyschological level. Perhaps also to take breather while the Wallstreet futures are implemented and require some time to ramp up.

A major risk to the crypto sector remains SEC action against ICOs, but the government probably moves slowly. They probably also need to coordinate with other major governments. They might also be waiting for the European Mifid II financial services regulation to come into effect in 2018.

If we could establish a new plateau here at $10,000, that would also form the likely extent of the bottom of any future crypto winter. If not, then yes anything above the 2013 peak could be the bottom.

So what we have right now is probably a battle between those afraid of crash to $2k and those who think BTC has much more room to run in 2018. Thus that contention would be another reason for a stall as the bears and bulls slug it out. Rather at the blowoff top, too many newbies should be very bullish and the smart money will be pulling the rug without saying anything.

I am not certain. We could have seen the blowoff top already at $11,400.

To put this all into more perspective, view the logarithmic chart for the entire BTC history:

https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/

You can see the peakiness/verticalness of BTC is declining on each bubble. We have a much more stable and epic move in BTC now, than those prior nascent overaccelerations. And the reason is of course widespread adoption as a financial speculation.

That logarithmic chart makes me think we have another year or more to go on an epic run for crypto as everybody and his 5th uncle realizes they want to get into this new phenomenon that has increased from $10 in 2013 to $10,000 in 2017. IOW looking at the logarithmic chart, for us old timers who got in at $10, we see a relatively calm rise in the price over a long-enough period of time, but  for the newbies coming in they think the price rise is insane, as they’re comparing it to other large marketcap paradigms such as the stock market. They would not be comparing BTC to a pinksheet stock, because an individual pinkshit stock doesn’t have a $200B mcap. An individual pinkshit stock wouldn’t have the widespread public awareness that Bitcoin has.

Look at this following updated version of the chart from the OP (sorry images aren't displaying on my posts bcz I’m a “newbie" lol who has been here since 2013):


The slope (trajectory) of the curve on the dip between 2013 until 2017 was less vertical then from 2011 to 2013. This gives me another thought for the possible outcome at this juncture. We may have indeed topped out at $11,400, but the green price curve for the dip could be much more shallower and more horizontal basically hugging the red line. As I had already stated, mathematically I expect the red line to adjust upwards compared to that quoted updated chart above (presuming the author will update it?), given the rise of the price since that quoted chart was computed on January 3, 2017. Such would be consistent with the plateauing that occurred in 2013 which lead to another peak later in 2013 which was 5X higher in price.

Another thought is the eventual death of altcoins? If Bitcoin scales out (at least in terms of the use case of financial speculation and altcoins never really deliver adoption otherwise), then perhaps the marketcap of Bitcoin rises to dominate the altcoins again? Which had not been the case until June 15 when the Scalepocalypse was muted with the NYA agreement on SegWit. But since early Nov this reversal stalled presumably due to the failure of SegWit2X and the pump of BCH:

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage

So does that reversal resume and the altcoins continue to diminish w.r.t. to Bitcoin with SegWit, or not because 1MB is insufficient for transaction volume scaling even with Lightning Networks? I’m betting altcoins still have another run w.r.t. BTC and BTC is overheated at $11,400. I’m not sure if BTC to $25k first or after such. My vision is that we have a big mess and the speculation is far ahead of the reality of adoption as a payment system. So I think we get more speculation in altcoins and we get an overshoot for BTC in 2018 to $25+k, then the SEC and other major governments attack ICOs, Wallstreet will be short, most of the altcoins go to ~0 because they're difficult to short, and the entire sectors moves down but not so extremely so as in 2011 and 2014. If we reach $40k, then maybe we correct down to $10k. The more shorting, the more buying support on the way down. Again this means most altcoins are going to end up empty bags in the end game, unless they have some capability that Bitcoin does not which is had widespread use case. But short term altcoins may have another run. Longer-term the speculations will move from altcoins more to ecosystem startups as BTC dominance is established and the BTC price is rising more slowly as time goes on, thus an actual regulated crowdfunding investment model. The wildcard is the potential for theft of SegWit by miners in cahoots with whales due to the “pay to anyone” feature of SegWit, restoring the immutability of Satoshi’s protocol.


Thoughts?



Wallstreet is bringing in the sheep now. No way they will shoot the goose that is laying the golden egg until they’re massively short.

Read this:

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-declines-9200-factors-another-strong-rally/

Investors with large size can’t enter an investment until they see an exit strategy. Now with the liquid derivatives coming, they have that exit strategy. So now Bitcoin moves up to a much larger scale of markecap.

I would tend to agree with this.  How low do you think we fall back..?  2-4k?

And it says that the price was over $4,300 by the beggining of this year, and it is fake, because it was less than $800 when the year started.

Anyway, it is fine, we are not looking for accurate speculations, because they dont exist, and if someone tells you that they are 100% sure about the price in just a few months, they are lying.

But do you really think that we are going to see a price over 100 thousand dollars? i see it very difficult, who knows if all the big whales are going to sell out at 50k? we can not speculate over that.

if they decide to do so, then the price is obviously going to crash.