Topic: This is what some of you actually believe. - page 2. (Read 4144 times)

Um, seriously, Unicorns riding bicycles will never happen
But what about cucumbers should there be unicorns?


Look around there are actually people who call this bubble the "bitcoin sigularity" "financial singularity", etc...

are you saying I cant believe?

Money won't mean the same thing. If we all became machines the only thing that would matter would really be raw matter and the ability to control it so we can use it for processing power. A post scarcity economy would probably be prevented because of this. But it essentially would be damn near post scarcity because if everyone are machines or at least enhanced, extreme education, communication, merged consciousness all come to the table and completely change the human experience.

And this has something to do with speculation... because?

 

But seriously, Kurzweil's singularity will simply never happen - there is ALWAYS a bottleneck somewhere inside or outside of the system.

I do like the idea of living your life at the speed of light though, essentially immortal until you log out.

Will money matter if we see the singularity?

I don't think that self-aware machines require anything we call life in the biological sense.

And i think that our technological advancement is limited by the bandwidth of applied brain power.
There are only so many humans working on any particular problem while the amount of things to find out only increases.
I think that any shape of this growth will depend on how humanity will develop. I mean, in 50 years we could be colonizing the solar system, which gives us room to breed and produce more scientists.
On the other hand the increase in technological knowledge allows us to extend our own capabilities which is considerably speeding up the process.
But i think a real singularity is out of  the question. We will just have to deal with the occasional paradigm shift, if we can deal with it.
I think we are riding a linear surfboard on a log scale so to us it always looks as if the future is impossibly steep, untill we get there.

In the end i think that we can achieve synthetic conciousness. But i don't want to speculate about the properties of such a conciousness. It depends on a lot of factors and not all can be predicted if it's anything like an emergent phenomenon, which i think it may be.

I'm not sure why you think self aware machines are an impossible transformation per se. I find that a process like evolution takes any chance it can get. Whatever works, works.
Life itself is not much more than machines building more machines.
And if life can make a brain then you can make a brain with a machine.

Well, I think the Kurzweillean singularity is a plausible scenario. He's a bit selective in some of his statistics, and has made some predictions that have been plainly wrong (e.g. the solar singularity which isn't progressing on his schedule). But the basic insight is sound I expect (Unless the peak-economiclally-recoverable-energy limit is hit like some people expect). I don't think he's an idiot.

But you don't need to believe any of that to anticipate BTC to be a commodity more valuable than it presently is.  Yes, we know the risks. There's a good chance it will be a zero eventually. But there's also a good chance it could ultimately be regarded as a co-equal asset class with gold. By which I mean it's market valuation could equal that of gold. All gold in the world is roughly $10T US. In order for bitcoin to have that same valuation, it would be $1M/bitcoin (using 10M BTC, or half that value at 20M BTC).

Tipler is just the most delusional transhumanist.  It is right that other concepts aren't that far fetched but they are still irrational.

This can be demonstrated on the graphic I posted in OP which basically comes from the book on transhumanism. It discards the limitation on resources, the Hubbard peak and the tendency for laws of accelerated change to topple out at some point. Kurzweil may not be as delusional as Tipler but he still is an Idiot on my book.
The next requirement, so called self-aware machines are an impossible transformation in a cybernetic sense. I am not saying that it is impossible to enable mechanical life but it would case to be machines at this point, since a machine is by definition a lifeless object. So that leaves us with the conclusion that machines inventing new machines isn't possible either.

Mind you the floor is high, we could reach a tremendous level of technological sophistication but it will not be subject to hyperbolic growth, at optimistically exponential, realistically sigmoid and pessimistically bell-shaped. (Yes we could actually die out too)

Tripler is an idiot that doesn't understand basic mechanisms like entropy and speed of light.

None of that mumbo jumbo is required for transhumanism.
This Tripler person seriously thinks that entropy of the universe will in the end decrease to zero.
My guess is he hasn't kept up with physics for the past 50 or so years.

Tipler is interesting - The Physics of Immortality especially:  a book worth reading, and one I consider to be on an intellectual plane with Jaynes' Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind.

After that I'll grant you he fell pretty much all the way down your "religious superstition" rabbit hole.  Still, whatever one might believe, worth reading.

Since everybody is spamming anyway I think I can be excused this incident. 

It pinnacles in a construction called Tiplers Omega Point. (Google it if you are interested) That's the realm of religious superstition.
That and hyperbolic development of any kind hasn't been observed to result in anything other than a disaster, historically. Plus technological progress is proven to be subject to exponential curves during the beginning and sigmoid curves overall.

Oh hey it's Mucus with more bear stuff.

Should have posted this in your other thread that's already full of fail.

I'm not mad, overall I've earned money from this bubble. Not as much as I would like but I am not complaining.

The following response shalt be considered the end of this thread. OP is free to lock it afterwards:

Cool story, bro. You sound mad.

What is bullshit about transhumanism?
There is no way of stopping it, imo.

Transhumanism is actually already happening to various degrees. There are all kinds of useful implants and genetic therapies appearing on the market. Doesn't mean a singularity will happen like Kurzweil goes on about. Eventually our computers/smartphones will be thought controlled and probably just seamless implants in our skulls that won't even be visible. Thought controlled computing already exists. Even some crazy brain to brain interfaces for rats let them SHARE brains. It is incredible.

OK, I'll bite.

Turn it upside down and the same case applies with just as much fervour.

Market cap of $1T, price of $50K/BTC @ 21M coins mined in a few long years, after the expected ups and downs.

That's nowhere near a singularity Mr Kurzweil

If you know transhumanism is bullshit you should be able to draw your conclusions from there. IF not welcome to the south sea.