Topic: This is why you shouldn't use martingale (Read 2486 times)

Martingale are fun when you win It is the same with gambling even if most gamblers probably like losing as much as winning, they are looking for the thrill of putting their faith in lady luck

Just Ouch that is painful but reading posts above guess it's not as bad
One years salary for some people down the drain for the normal folk though

That is more or less it. Very simple. I mean, as random as the results are, they seem to have some patterns within. Using the same method, most sessions felt very similar, no matter the seed. The thing is, it's hard to explain, but sometimes it 'felt' like my method would not work on rare occasions. I don't know how to explain it. As if it was "alive" and had moods. I know, that sounds hokey... Many times, I would walk away mid-session if the results did not feel right.

And I must've misunderstood about the payout results being related to the wins on an account. Also, I have since verified the results of my last session from Hell.   

That's close enough.  It looks like the 390060 account has played a little more since you posted that, but the other two are spot on.


I noticed your pattern.  It seems to be pretty simple: switch hi/lo on every loss, leave it the same on a win.  But sometimes you stop alternating on a loss, and I couldn't work out why or when.  Is that just gut feel?


I don't think so.  Every time you hit 'randomize' you get a new random seed, which isn't based on the history of your account at all.  The accounts which change hands for lots of coins are the ones with a large loss from investing.  Investors on pay commission on new profits, not on profits made after a big loss.  So while you're recovering investment losses, all profits are commission free.  Such accounts are worth up to however much they will save their new owner in commission.


Not sure why you struck that out, but I'd be happy to walk you through the verification process.  The first place I'd refer you to however is the 'Fair?' tab on the site, and the verifier linked at the end of that tab.

No worries man.  
Water under the bridge...

On another note, if there is someone out there that can ELI5 how to verify how my rolls were provably fair, I would be forever in their debt. I know JD is on the level, but I have never even *came close* to losing 11 bets in a row before that unlucky streak.

I would just like to learn more about the math of the whole thing.


Thanks,
DiceMiner

Please note that I didn't specifically refer to you as a degenerate - merely my perception that whales seem to be degens.

Thanks for clearing that up Doog.
I am the guy we are talking about here (390060 / 443793 / 444612)
I hope the guy that called me a "degenerate gambler" got to read this part.

Anyways, to prove my legitimacy, here is some info that only Doog would be privy to:

--------------------------------
--- 390060 -------
--------------------------------
bets: 13,593
wins: 6,915
losses: 6,678
luck: 100.81%
wagered: 2,622.21936140
(profit): 279.64896255

--------------------------------
--- 443793 -------
--------------------------------
bets: 2,755
wins: 1,380
losses: 1,375
luck: 100.22%
wagered: 1,408.70396357
(profit): 132.72196976

--------------------------------
--- 444612 -------
--------------------------------
bets: 4,006
wins: 1,986
losses: 2,020
luck: 99.28%
wagered: 1,584.80297668
(profit): 50.38480271


Anyhow, I came here to say, for anyone thinking of trying this, it's not only just a matter of pure Martingale. There's a little pattern that I took a while to feel out. Most sessions, the pattern seems to work and every once in a while, when it just doesn't "feel right", I log off, randomize seed and come back later.

I have seen in the chat rooms that people are selling their accounts. Doog, is there any worth in an account with a win ration like the 3 I have been playing with? I think I remember reading somewhere that it affects one's payout ratio when they invest.


Thanks,
DiceMiner


P.S. For anyone that happened to witness it, I was also the guy that accidentally won a 20x bet while aggressively 'galing a few weeks ago. I forgot that I had it set on 4.95% (instead of 49.5%), but luckily won about 13 BTC on my third or fourth bet. And yes, you better believe I contributed to the Rain-Jar that night!  

Some people have nothing but time, my friend. Especially when it comes to turning a profit in gambling. Time is an illusion. The only time now is party time!

Not that I know of. Doesn't really work out because most people don't have enough money (and the house limit) to afford really long and unlucky streaks. The only way is to possibly have a 1 satoshi starting bet which would mean you'd survive something like ~ 23 losses in a row with a 1+ BTC deposit. But it would take you an eternity to actually make much profit.

Has anyone successfully used a half martingale approach to their gambling? You take the martingale and cut it in half effectively doubling your longevity.

Haha. He must've thought the guy won, but who would be making this marketing ploy exactly?

It shows a martingale gone wrong so it should push people away of playing a martingale

No, it's not. According to internet sources, going 50%-49% gives you better odds than martingale.

That same player has won over several 100btc in the past week or 2. Gotta lose sometime. Sorry to see it, i was there when it happened.

Could be a marketing ploy to get other people to martingale

I bet that he will be back as well

They were very lucky if they withdrew hundreds of btc from a 0.5-64 martingale

Maybe they won most of it Martingale-ing it and this was just their loss streak?   Martingale is only foolproof if you've got a hell of a lot of funds to gamble and can keep going until you win.

he will be back. no doubt about it.



i may try this 

Let's hope for the investors that someone else has access to the funds as well or maybe he choses 4 persons and they can have access to the address if 3 of them sign in together : his mother, his best friend, his partner and a trusted escrow for exemple

I think I can answer:

He has 500 btc loaded each time in the hot wallet.

Deb has access to the funds and *probably* someone else.