This is why you shouldn't use martingale - page 2.

Light

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Quote from: dooglus on April 21, 2014, 02:52:20 AM

It's looking like that 64 BTC loss was this player's last bet. They've already withdrawn hundreds of BTC of profit over the last few weeks. Maybe they have the discipline required to quit while they're ahead!

Good for them - some people have a lot of luck (at least more than me). That's why I love being the house - don't need to rely on luck maths will help you out. Anyways, I'm not so sure, from what I've seen whales seem to be degenerate gamblers who eentually give some/most of it back before quitting.

By the way, doog just out of curiosity how much do you keep in the hot wallet? Do you have a dead man switch in case something happens to you and Deb?

dooglus

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Quote from: Light on April 20, 2014, 07:18:11 PM

Well at least as an investor martingalers are great as although they may take money in the short term you can guarantee that one day you'll get their whole stack.

It's looking like that 64 BTC loss was this player's last bet. They've already withdrawn hundreds of BTC of profit over the last few weeks. Maybe they have the discipline required to quit while they're ahead!

dooglus

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A few facts that haven't been mentioned here:

* That losing sequence went 1/16, 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 - so 11 losing bets in a row.

* That guy had been coming to the site day after day, and winning 10 BTC each day on 3 different accounts. So 30 BTC per day.

* This is the first time he busted - previously he only got up to 64 twice and won it both times.

* He's still around 460 BTC *up* overall.

* Here's a chart of the combined profit against number of rolls from the 3 accounts:

So while it's true that in general martingale isn't a winning strategy, in this case it all worked out pretty well for him!

Edit: here's a list of the bet details:

Quote

+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+
| betid | bet | high | nonce | time |
+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+
| 1063871599 | 64.0000 | 0 | 23 | 09:59:27 |
| 1063871035 | 32.0000 | 1 | 22 | 09:59:17 |
| 1063870799 | 16.0000 | 0 | 21 | 09:59:13 |
| 1063870573 | 8.0000 | 1 | 20 | 09:59:09 |
| 1063870357 | 4.0000 | 0 | 19 | 09:59:05 |
| 1063870086 | 2.0000 | 1 | 18 | 09:59:00 |
| 1063869842 | 1.0000 | 0 | 17 | 09:58:56 |
| 1063869565 | 0.5000 | 1 | 16 | 09:58:51 |
| 1063869383 | 0.2500 | 0 | 15 | 09:58:48 |
| 1063869197 | 0.1250 | 1 | 14 | 09:58:45 |
| 1063869067 | 0.0625 | 0 | 13 | 09:58:43 |
+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+

Edit 2: here's a list of all his bets over 20 BTC. Notice he won 2 out of 3 at 64 BTC and 9 out of 12 at 32 BTC!

Quote

+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+
| betid | uid | bet | date | profit |
+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+
| 954417255 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-01 04:47:48 | 31.36 |
| 972923827 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-04 10:07:09 | 31.36 |
| 979554255 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-05 10:04:31 | 31.36 |
| 997244196 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-08 07:21:56 | 31.36 |
| 1001940814 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-09 05:42:09 | -32 |
| 1001941194 | 390060 | 64 | 2014-04-09 05:42:15 | 62.72 |
| 1019802937 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-11 23:58:17 | 31.36 |
| 1025835234 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-12 23:45:06 | 31.36 |
| 1025845181 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-12 23:47:22 | -32 |
| 1025845427 | 443793 | 64 | 2014-04-12 23:47:25 | 62.72 |
| 1041768962 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-15 11:33:18 | 31.36 |
| 1041786397 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-15 11:37:03 | 31.36 |
| 1057748701 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-18 04:03:02 | 31.36 |
| 1063871035 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-19 09:59:17 | -32 |
| 1063871599 | 444612 | 64 | 2014-04-19 09:59:27 | -64 |
+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+

FanEagle

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who the hell needs long term give me 10 minutes off green martingale and we are done.

Light

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Quote from: Rulishix on April 20, 2014, 11:09:11 PM

Martingale is good in the right hands and if you use the right strategy but it's still dependent mainly on luck. A lot of fucking luck!

The are no 'right hands' or 'right strategy' when it comes down to dice based gambling. Since you have no control over the outcome (ie no skill is required) hence the whole thing is entirely chance based meaning that martingale is just as -EV as any other 'strategy' and will lose in the long term.

Rulishix

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Martingale is good in the right hands and if you use the right strategy but it's still dependent mainly on luck. A lot of fucking luck!

boumalo

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Quote from: Light on April 20, 2014, 07:18:11 PM

Quote from: koshgel on April 20, 2014, 06:07:18 PM

Quote from: cp1 on April 20, 2014, 11:20:00 AM

Quote from: DiamondCardz on April 19, 2014, 06:46:14 PM

Strange, although it doesn't change anything it's unlike the human mind to decide that after getting a low your best bet is to bet low the 2nd time round. If she didn't change at all that losing streak wouldn't have happened.

I was thinking that too. And what if that person had started off the other way, they would have won every bet.

Each roll is an independent event. Doesn't matter what she chooses.

Yeah she would have eventually hit a losing streak and lost - even if now she avoided it, it is inevitable and she would have busted. Well at least as an investor martingalers are great as although they may take money in the short term you can guarantee that one day you'll get their whole stack.

If she bet low instead of high or the other way around it will probably not have been the same result anyway...

Playing a martingale is the same as betting a big amount to win a small amount

Light

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Quote from: koshgel on April 20, 2014, 06:07:18 PM

Quote from: cp1 on April 20, 2014, 11:20:00 AM

Quote from: DiamondCardz on April 19, 2014, 06:46:14 PM

Strange, although it doesn't change anything it's unlike the human mind to decide that after getting a low your best bet is to bet low the 2nd time round. If she didn't change at all that losing streak wouldn't have happened.

I was thinking that too. And what if that person had started off the other way, they would have won every bet.

Each roll is an independent event. Doesn't matter what she chooses.

Yeah she would have eventually hit a losing streak and lost - even if now she avoided it, it is inevitable and she would have busted. Well at least as an investor martingalers are great as although they may take money in the short term you can guarantee that one day you'll get their whole stack.

DiamondCardz

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Quote from: koshgel on April 20, 2014, 06:07:18 PM

Quote from: cp1 on April 20, 2014, 11:20:00 AM

Quote from: DiamondCardz on April 19, 2014, 06:46:14 PM

Strange, although it doesn't change anything it's unlike the human mind to decide that after getting a low your best bet is to bet low the 2nd time round. If she didn't change at all that losing streak wouldn't have happened.

I was thinking that too. And what if that person had started off the other way, they would have won every bet.

Each roll is an independent event. Doesn't matter what she chooses.

Clearly, you didn't read what I said properly before posting. Like the majority of your posts, probably something to do with your PrimeDice signature, I guess. Anyway, I'm aware that it doesn't matter, I was commenting that it was unlike the human mind to do that.

koshgel

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Quote from: cp1 on April 20, 2014, 11:20:00 AM

Quote from: DiamondCardz on April 19, 2014, 06:46:14 PM

Strange, although it doesn't change anything it's unlike the human mind to decide that after getting a low your best bet is to bet low the 2nd time round. If she didn't change at all that losing streak wouldn't have happened.

I was thinking that too. And what if that person had started off the other way, they would have won every bet.

Each roll is an independent event. Doesn't matter what she chooses.

cp1

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Stop using branwallets

Quote from: DiamondCardz on April 19, 2014, 06:46:14 PM

Strange, although it doesn't change anything it's unlike the human mind to decide that after getting a low your best bet is to bet low the 2nd time round. If she didn't change at all that losing streak wouldn't have happened.

I was thinking that too. And what if that person had started off the other way, they would have won every bet.

phpTaskForce

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We have developed automated script based on martingale's betting system, and it plays hi-lo game on freebitco.in.
Only a few users have experienced more than 12 losses in row.
However, others had more luck and they've doubled their profit very easily using our script.

Chances for loosing the bet 12 or more times in row are very small,
but even if there is a slightest probability that some event can happen then it will happen in limited time period.

phpTaskForce Team

Pony789

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Quote from: TwinWinNerD on April 19, 2014, 07:55:53 PM

Quote from: zolace on April 19, 2014, 07:49:46 PM

See as long as there is a max profit you cant beat the house. its not only edge that effects you, is the Max limit, the amount of money you have to bet. if the investment is 31,000 you will need a max cap of 1 million to beat the house. Since Dice sites have limites I dont bet is only good to do small bets

What if I told you that you can't beat the house even if you had no maxbet restriction?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29

Exactly.
What people don't understand is "rare" events do happen.

gondel

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Hi,
I tried the martinagle system some times and i always lose! It is just one of the fastest losing systems Cheesy

BR,

Gondel

member1

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That's a lot of money..

Some people gets their lessons on the hard way...

zeeshanblc

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24 reds few times, once 25reds, not martingale just fixed autobot just to see how many times it will be under 50. Martingale just not worth it

koshgel

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Losing 9 in a row isn't even that unbelievable.

I've seen 20+ losses in a row.

Only gambling noobs use martingale

Nobitcoin

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In holiday we trust

A very nice example... Maybe get a few people to think while playing on those dice games.

Light

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Quote from: zolace on April 19, 2014, 07:49:46 PM

if the investment is 31,000 you will need a max cap of 1 million to beat the house.

Actually, that maximum may not be enough - you'd need an infinite amount of money and a limitless maximum bet in order to be able to guarantee a profit. Unlikely as it is, it is possible to lose n times in a row (probability prior to rolls occurring is 1/(2^n)), so unless you have money to cover the previous loss (ie infinite) you'll eventually bust in the long term.

TwinWinNerD

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CEO Bitpanda.com

Quote from: zolace on April 19, 2014, 07:49:46 PM

See as long as there is a max profit you cant beat the house. its not only edge that effects you, is the Max limit, the amount of money you have to bet. if the investment is 31,000 you will need a max cap of 1 million to beat the house. Since Dice sites have limites I dont bet is only good to do small bets

What if I told you that you can't beat the house even if you had no maxbet restriction?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29

Topic: This is why you shouldn't use martingale - page 2. (Read 2563 times)