This last rally Leg has been also bought by retail?

Lucius

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Quote from: fillippone on March 26, 2021, 01:57:02 PM

There has been recently a huge debate about exchange balances going down. Of course less BTC available for sale means prices going up.

Someone buys all these BTCs, through OTC or on the open market, and the fact is that these coins do not return to the exchange as was once the case in the past. While the average Joe is probably investing now to sell when the price reaches a magical $100k, big investors obviously have some other plans - but again, we know their coins are stored in custodial cold storage.

We can conclude that the liquidity of crypto exchanges is lower than before, but again we should not forget that we are currently at 18.66 million mined BTC, and even that 20% is lost (3.72 million) and 50% of what is available is saved as a long-term investment (7.47 million), we have at least as much BTC (7.47 million) left on the market. I may be wrong, but I think that no matter what, there is still a fairly large amount of BTC available at all times - at least I haven't read anywhere that anyone complained that they couldn't buy as much BTC as they wanted.

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Quote from: SquallLeonhart on March 22, 2021, 01:36:54 PM

On top of that, they just buy and hold, which means they are not helping the market long term, sure when they buy it the price goes up but after that the market is again retail buyer and retail seller so we could end up having more retail sellers since price is higher and everyone wants that money, so they are not helping long term neither. Long story short, companies are a good thing for us, but they are not a great thing, they are just decent, sure it helps but it is not as big of a deal as people make it out to be.

Interesting point.
There has been recently a huge debate about exchange balances going down. Of course less BTC available for sale means prices going up. But I do hodling is not good per se.
If Laszlo, Hal and the hothead had only hodled, instead of spending Bitcoin to spread the Satoshi Gospel, today we wouldn’t be here.

SquallLeonhart

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Quote from: Lucius on March 22, 2021, 06:30:58 AM

Interesting numbers, who would say that retail lead compared to institutions in Q1 2021, but all thanks to 3 times less investment when it comes to funds if we compare Q4 2020 with Q1 2021. I have to admit that this definitely breaks the theories that ordinary people stopped buying BTC because of its high price, obviously in this case we can apply the old saying "Vires in numeris".

We can assume that the share of retail will now increase even more due to stimulus checks, of course assuming that part of these funds will spill over into crypto as has been the case in the past.

Retail is always the bigger one, but companies end up doing it all together at once and that is why it looks like they lead. Normally, every single day, we lead as retail and they are behind, nearly every single day, but then one day they come in and spend a billion dollars and get out so it looks like they beat us that day.

On top of that, they just buy and hold, which means they are not helping the market long term, sure when they buy it the price goes up but after that the market is again retail buyer and retail seller so we could end up having more retail sellers since price is higher and everyone wants that money, so they are not helping long term neither. Long story short, companies are a good thing for us, but they are not a great thing, they are just decent, sure it helps but it is not as big of a deal as people make it out to be.

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Quote from: doomloop on March 21, 2021, 02:41:13 PM

I would have even preferred that there are more of retail investors than we have all these big institutions; that way the coins will be more distributed than one institution holding a bunch of it.

But anyway, it is good that we now have lots of institutions, there are still pros to every cons, in lots of ways they have contributed in the level of trust people have in this.

I feel your reason but your last paragraph has answered it and that is better for the market and bitcoin. The institutional investors are the reason price is high making up the high cryptocurrency volume. And we have not heard the bubble kind of discussion about bitcoin because the market is getting less unstable unlike 2017 when it was majorly buy and dump investors mainly for gains. Confidence has been increased and more huge buyers are looking to hodl and that will push price further higher because of limited availability.

Lucius

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Interesting numbers, who would say that retail lead compared to institutions in Q1 2021, but all thanks to 3 times less investment when it comes to funds if we compare Q4 2020 with Q1 2021. I have to admit that this definitely breaks the theories that ordinary people stopped buying BTC because of its high price, obviously in this case we can apply the old saying "Vires in numeris".

We can assume that the share of retail will now increase even more due to stimulus checks, of course assuming that part of these funds will spill over into crypto as has been the case in the past.

doomloop

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Institutions has contributed to the increase indeed, but whether institutions or no institutions, we are still going to find the market heading towards the high price as it did, the only thing is that it’s going to take time for us to reach there, but it’s definitely going to reach there. I would have even preferred that there are more of retail investors than we have all these big institutions; that way the coins will be more distributed than one institution holding a bunch of it.

But anyway, it is good that we now have lots of institutions, there are still pros to every cons, in lots of ways they have contributed in the level of trust people have in this.

AndySt

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Quote from: so98nn on January 17, 2021, 06:40:53 AM

It is interesting to see the charts around 2012-13, 2016-17 ans 2020-21. See the stock to flow chart in black feature, it clearly states the period when bitcoin halving happened after which bitcoin has been raised both in the price and market cap very swiftly and like a straight wall. Best to notice huge amount of USD inflow happens during the year end and its multi-fold just before and after the halving happens. I am going to take the reference of this for my next investment plan during halving which is around 2024.
Whether the last leg is bough by retail or large pvt corporation for the investor like me they are big bone and motivation. Number one thing they will not allow the bitcoin market cap to fall down so yeah the whole analysis is cool.

I am not sure that the tools of conventional market analysis are applicable to bitcoin due to the fact that the market is new and immature and the influence of many additional factors that do not and cannot have an impact in other market sectors. We can and should draw parallels with previous periods, because we need to focus on something, but no one will be surprised if everything happens contrary to previous experience Wink

Personally, I'm not surprised by anything and I'm ready for anything, because it's bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

fillippone

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Maybe we are now on a different leg than the one I was referring to in the OP, but apparently retail still play a good part in the price action:

Retail Bitcoin Traders Rival Wall Street Buyers as Mania Builds

Quote

The cryptocurrency market’s little guys are going toe-to-toe with the big banks as Bitcoin continues to surge to new highs, data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggest.

I will try to put my hands on that report as well and share here on the forum. Stay tuned.

so98nn

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It is interesting to see the charts around 2012-13, 2016-17 ans 2020-21. See the stock to flow chart in black feature, it clearly states the period when bitcoin halving happened after which bitcoin has been raised both in the price and market cap very swiftly and like a straight wall. Best to notice huge amount of USD inflow happens during the year end and its multi-fold just before and after the halving happens. I am going to take the reference of this for my next investment plan during halving which is around 2024.

Whether the last leg is bough by retail or large pvt corporation for the investor like me they are big bone and motivation. Number one thing they will not allow the bitcoin market cap to fall down so yeah the whole analysis is cool.

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Quote from: jacafbiz on January 15, 2021, 05:18:16 AM

I have a feeling we are at the early 2017 again, the price is likely to move between $25k to $40k for 3 months for this to be the new floor respected by the market before we pump to $50k and above. The money buying and pumping the price is not retail money, agreed some of them might have bought this pump but for me the mega pump is coming and my take is that we will likely touch $250k which would be the top

Yes, I agree with you.

Many expect the bitcoin price to hit $ 100,000. Therefore, this scenario is unlikely. The market almost always plays against the crowd.

A bear market is now also unlikely. We see that the bitcoin price does not fall below $ 30 thousand and is confidently holding at the level of $ 35 thousand.

This means that the price of bitcoins will reach levels well above the normal $ 100,000. Soon enough, we'll see Bitcoin at $ 250,000 - $ 300,000.

The rise in the price of Bitcoin will be accompanied by serious shocks. Our world will change dramatically.

fullhdpixel

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Quote from: Welsh on January 14, 2021, 07:12:08 PM

Quote from: crwth on January 12, 2021, 08:05:24 AM

What can be extracted from this is that as more and more retailers adapt to this, without FOMOing, we could stay in this 25k to 45k range for a long time. That's what I think could happen, especially as seen in the current events and happenings.

As long as miners and HODLers don't sell their BTC, it will definitely drive up the price even more. That's if the demand is still there. Spot on analysis. Cheesy

That would be a pretty sweet deal, sign me up! In all seriousness, I'm usually quite publicly pessimistic about Bitcoins short term value, but more optimistic about its future worth. However, this is the first time in a long while, that I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin might not give too much up on its current price. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you, reaching for the 45k, but I think a 25-30k is definitely something I can get behind.

If you are optimistic about the future and pessimistic about the short term, you probably realize that there are times when it should go up in the short term as well Cheesy

. I mean if you are optimistic about the future that means it will go up in the future according to you, that "future" should come one day and it should go up one day and that Is about right now.

I believe as long as these huge corporations keep investing billions of dollars into bitcoin, there should not be a shock to anyone that it will definitely go up in value and stay there as well. There are companies accepting bitcoin more and more, and there are corporations spending more to buy every day, that Is why many people think bitcoin will not go down a lot, sure it could have some falls we have seen 40k to 32k for example, but that "crash" may not come up again.

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I have a feeling we are at the early 2017 again, the price is likely to move between $25k to $40k for 3 months for this to be the new floor respected by the market before we pump to $50k and above. The money buying and pumping the price is not retail money, agreed some of them might have bought this pump but for me the mega pump is coming and my take is that we will likely touch $250k which would be the top

Smartprofit

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Quote from: Mauser on January 15, 2021, 03:49:54 AM

Quote from: Smartprofit on January 15, 2021, 02:57:00 AM

If the new US President Joe Biden announces new measures to stimulate the US economy (i.e. continue to issue US dollars), then the bitcoin price will continue to rise.

In any case, the main task of the government is to prevent hyperinflation. Thus, the new dollars will not be allowed into the consumer market. Instead, the stock market will rise and Bitcoin will rise.

Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has no limits to further growth. Bitcoin can be worth $ 50,000, it can be worth $ 100,000 or $ 500,000.

I fully agree with you, a strong dollar will increase bitcoin prices as well. Overall the upside potential of bitcoins is so much higher than for stocks, bonds or any other financial asset. The only thing I would compare to the recent bitcoin rally are maybe Stock Options, but with options you have a lot of risk to not end up in the money and then they are just worthless. As for bitcoins you will always have these coins even if there is a price drop.

Yes, assuming a significant depreciation of the US dollar and its withdrawal from monetary circulation, then Bitcoin can be effectively used as a currency.

This makes Bitcoin a more promising investment than stocks, bonds, etc. For Bitcoin, the only catastrophe will be the complete destruction of the Internet's structure and serious problems with energy supply.

The main threat to Bitcoin is effectively functioning central bank currencies (CBDC). A complete rejection of cash, a system of social ratings, reputation tokens, complete control over the lives of the inhabitants of the Earth can make owning bitcoin meaningless.

However, this is a very pessimistic scenario.

Mauser

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Quote from: Smartprofit on January 15, 2021, 02:57:00 AM

If the new US President Joe Biden announces new measures to stimulate the US economy (i.e. continue to issue US dollars), then the bitcoin price will continue to rise.

In any case, the main task of the government is to prevent hyperinflation. Thus, the new dollars will not be allowed into the consumer market. Instead, the stock market will rise and Bitcoin will rise.

Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has no limits to further growth. Bitcoin can be worth $ 50,000, it can be worth $ 100,000 or $ 500,000.

I fully agree with you, a strong dollar will increase bitcoin prices as well. Overall the upside potential of bitcoins is so much higher than for stocks, bonds or any other financial asset. The only thing I would compare to the recent bitcoin rally are maybe Stock Options, but with options you have a lot of risk to not end up in the money and then they are just worthless. As for bitcoins you will always have these coins even if there is a price drop.

Smartprofit

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Quote from: fillippone on January 14, 2021, 07:04:53 PM

Grayscale has just resumed buying Bitcoins , this is going to help the rhetoric of institutional buying.
Of course, I hope it is a sort of rotation between the various category of Bitcoin buyers: institutional, then retails, and institutional again!

Liquidity has been ample on the exchanges, so I hope the organic growth can go on.

If the new US President Joe Biden announces new measures to stimulate the US economy (i.e. continue to issue US dollars), then the bitcoin price will continue to rise.

In any case, the main task of the government is to prevent hyperinflation. Thus, the new dollars will not be allowed into the consumer market. Instead, the stock market will rise and Bitcoin will rise.

Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has no limits to further growth. Bitcoin can be worth $ 50,000, it can be worth $ 100,000 or $ 500,000.

Welsh

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Quote from: crwth on January 12, 2021, 08:05:24 AM

What can be extracted from this is that as more and more retailers adapt to this, without FOMOing, we could stay in this 25k to 45k range for a long time. That's what I think could happen, especially as seen in the current events and happenings.

As long as miners and HODLers don't sell their BTC, it will definitely drive up the price even more. That's if the demand is still there. Spot on analysis. Cheesy

That would be a pretty sweet deal, sign me up! In all seriousness, I'm usually quite publicly pessimistic about Bitcoins short term value, but more optimistic about its future worth. However, this is the first time in a long while, that I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin might not give too much up on its current price. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you, reaching for the 45k, but I think a 25-30k is definitely something I can get behind.

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on January 10, 2021, 08:29:34 AM

Yeah, somehow I have a feeling miners aren't exactly holding onto that many of their mined coins--true, some of them could be very bullish on bitcoin and could be waiting for an even higher price to sell at, but these big mining farms are businesses. They're not really in business to gamble on bitcoin's price like that (that's my guess anyway).

I guess whatever way you look at it they would be taking a risk. Although, you would assume that mining companies would be in it for the long term, and therefore might even benefit form offloading their earnings frequently to try, and get more capital to invest either in more Bitcoin, or in equipment to increase their profit in the long run. It would be a hard decision to make, and without knowing the calculations, I'm not sure which would yield more results.

fillippone

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Grayscale has just resumed buying Bitcoins , this is going to help the rhetoric of institutional buying.
Of course, I hope it is a sort of rotation between the various category of Bitcoin buyers: institutional, then retails, and institutional again!

Liquidity has been ample on the exchanges, so I hope the organic growth can go on.

Silberman

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Quote from: magneto on January 12, 2021, 04:40:20 PM

Excellent analysis and compilation of evidence. Well done.

Quote

What I mean is that: is it possible that the last leg in this rally hasn't been fueled entirely by the institutional, as the main narrative tends to convince us, but also there is a consistent inflow from retailers, which, without FOMOing, have definitely contributed to the rise in price in the last, say 70% leg up from 25K to 42K.

Certainly.

I do think that institutional forces cannot be overstated - they are still the main driver of demand for BTC in this rally, especially since they are not just trading BTC in this rally but actually committing to holding it for the long term.

But retail investors, especially those trading on leverage, can have a great impact on the market as well. What they offer is consistent, bite-sized demand - which arguably is just as important in the long run to BTC adoption.

Great point, I have forgotten that in fact using leverage is very popular in this market and as such retail investors can exercise a great deal of influence over the market as well because not only they are trading with an amount of capital many times higher than what they could do otherwise, they can buy more bitcoin reducing its supply even further, if anything I think this explains the recent crash, most likely a whale sold some of their coins and this was enough to reduce the price somewhat then those that used the most leverage received margin calls making the price to go down even further and creating a domino effect in the process.

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Quote from: crwth on January 12, 2021, 06:19:11 PM

Quote from: Lucius on January 12, 2021, 09:29:43 AM

Maybe we can look for a reason in this "Bitcoin Crash Liquidates 262,344 Traders", and if I'm not mistaken something similar happened in March last year.

I believe that the reason for the crash in price last year is that a lot of people have been cashing out because of the pandemic that has happened. I'm not sure with the recent drop though.

That is exactly right, the crash due to pandemic was in everything in the world. The price of stocks went down like crazy, fiat became worthless all of a sudden because nobody had it anymore but at the same time since nobody had it, it was hard to sell things so people increased their prices to make due, the price of gold decreased like crazy, and oil price was just a joke, at some point people didn't had enough storage to get all the oil in the world, it was like 1% of the price it used to be, that crazy.

In that period bitcoin price crashed too, but it wasn't even that bad, it was around 9k and it dropped to under 4k for a bit and increased to 5k in less than a week, so it wasn't even a 50% drop honestly. So the pandemic did made everything go down a lot, but over time everything increased back to where it suppose to be once again in few months.

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Quote from: Lucius on January 12, 2021, 09:29:43 AM

Maybe we can look for a reason in this "Bitcoin Crash Liquidates 262,344 Traders", and if I'm not mistaken something similar happened in March last year.

I believe that the reason for the crash in price last year is that a lot of people have been cashing out because of the pandemic that has happened. I'm not sure with the recent drop though.

Quote from: Lucius on January 12, 2021, 09:29:43 AM

I'm not an expert, so let someone correct me if it's about different things - but the explanation for such a sudden drop may be just this :

A lot of people are even betting for BTC to move up but it failed and having leverage liquidated them. There's no explanation in the article that explains that drop but basically, liquidation is what you defined here. The chart tells everything as to how humans act with their investments but it doesn't tell anywhere the reason behind them.

Topic: This last rally Leg has been also bought by retail? (Read 566 times)