Topic: This last rally Leg has been also bought by retail? - page 2. (Read 525 times)

Excellent analysis and compilation of evidence. Well done.


Certainly.

I do think that institutional forces cannot be overstated - they are still the main driver of demand for BTC in this rally, especially since they are not just trading BTC in this rally but actually committing to holding it for the long term.

But retail investors, especially those trading on leverage, can have a great impact on the market as well. What they offer is consistent, bite-sized demand - which arguably is just as important in the long run to BTC adoption.

There is a big difference between retail and institutional and people mistake that. By retail usually what people mean is that "will you be able to go into amazon and buy something with bitcoin" type of stuff, as in people being able to buy things with bitcoin, as in "retail stores" and so forth and that is not the same as institutional investors because those are places like grayscale that buys billions of dollars worth of bitcoin instead.

So, people mistake what it is meant and they argue about the wrong stuff together, normally if you explained it to both of the parties that argue, that they are talking about different things, they would definitely make it a lot better and would figure out. I would say investors are in, all those wealthy ones, and they will keep coming in, but the online retail type of places, places where you can "spend" your bitcoin will not be around for a while.

When you look at the chart then it really seems almost insignificant, but people still pay much more attention to the numbers - a drop of $10 000 is for most a sign of panic, and believe me some still expect a correction of at least 50% or more. How to explain to someone that 2018 and 2021 have nothing in common and that we are still far from max ATH...

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Maybe we can look for a reason in this "Bitcoin Crash Liquidates 262,344 Traders", and if I'm not mistaken something similar happened in March last year.

I'm not an expert, so let someone correct me if it's about different things - but the explanation for such a sudden drop may be just this :

What can be extracted from this is that as more and more retailers adapt to this, without FOMOing, we could stay in this 25k to 45k range for a long time. That's what I think could happen, especially as seen in the current events and happenings.

As long as miners and HODLers don't sell their BTC, it will definitely drive up the price even more. That's if the demand is still there. Spot on analysis.

Can you also check on data with regards to the cause of dumping? Maybe after analyzing the data about it, we could foresee when it will go down, or something to that sense.

Which retreat?
Ah, yeah, I just noticed it:
https://twitter.com/HTDcris/status/1348580043723841537?s=20

As long as BTC doesn't cross the 50% of S2F value (around 13,500 now and rising fast) or the 200 weeks MA (around 8,200 now and rising fast), you shouldn't have to be concerned and see it only as a possibility to stack more sats.

Also, as detailed in OP, a certain rotation of buyers seems healthy for the uptrend.

This analysis is great and I got to know a quite lot of things about it. Seeing the number of big investors into Bitcoin now I also have a thought that the last rally leg will be brought by retailers

A few months ago, there was news that Chinese miners are having big problems selling BTC via OTC because the Chinese authorities have decided to regulate that part of the crypto trade as well. If there really is truth in that, then that might explain why fewer and fewer new coins are coming to market given how strong Chinese miners are in that regard.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-crypto-miners-struggle-to-pay-power-bills-as-regulators-clamp-down-on-otc-desks


Given how much Grayscale has been buying BTC for the past few months, can we conclude that their current absence in this segment just results in one such dip? Has some perhaps interpreted this in a way that big players might be out of the game or getting ready to make a profit?


I personally think that this is probably one of the options that should not be ignored, but what may make it less likely is the timing - people usually do not invest money in such things during the holidays, and even less after spending money on gifts and on New Year's Eve. But this year is different in that regard as well, so there may be truth retail are being a part of the last rally - especially since the mainstream media took a good bite out of the story that only the sky is the limit and that this time the whole thing is different than it was in the case of 2017.

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I don't know why, but even some media outlets keep writing Grayscale wrong...


One little retreat and people immediately start to be pessimistic, as if similar things haven’t been happening for years. I wonder what will happen if we go below $20k, Bitcoin dead again

Apart from Grayscale (
However 50k USD might not be reached in this cycle. See the downtrend started yesterday and now price is back to 34k and hoping to see this level holds.

These levels were newly touched so I dont expect much support levels at these prices, on the contrary to what other bullish investors might think. Hence I feel the price will fall a lot more probably stop at the levels of 20k-25k USD.

Even though I am a bull, I am not stubborn but sensible enough in such cases.

I think the drop in the bitcoin price was due to sales by institutional investors who bought in 2020 at $ 9,000, $ 12,000 and 19,000 and sold now at $ 40,000 - $ 41,000.  

At the same time, retail investors continue to hold bitcoins.  That is why the collapse of the Bitcoin price did not happen.  

Institutional investors are waiting for the Bitcoin price (retail buyers will start selling Bitcoin) to fall to continue shopping.  

This is my version.  This version may be wrong.
If it is possible to confirm or deny it, it would be useful information.

There has been a drop in the market but knowing these companies buying large amounts of bitcoin, I think that a bounce back is possible and a 50k mark is possible, anything beyond that is still a little bit impossible.

Apparently, but this influence is not just on the price but also on the people, the retail people that's what I mean. MicroStrategy buying thousands of Bitcoin may cause the supply to decrease as well as the price to increase. This will somehow signal retail investors of a bull run and many of them will probably jump in.

And as stated in the OP, there is a possibility that the most recent part of the rally was actually brought about by retail investors who are mostly operating during the weekends. Well, we cannot be 100% certain of this but there are signs of it. And this is great for the market and all of us. If there is strong buying from both institutional investors and retail investors, there'd be no other beneficiary but Bitcoin itself and those who own some.

FOMO is incoming there is no doubt in my mind about it, even if the research from the OP seems to suggest that retail investors were the responsible for the last growth I still do not think this is the FOMO we all know, to me this are just speculators coming late to the party, once FOMO comes I will not be surprised if we see the prices that people have been dreaming for years, at minimum I think 100k will be touched and quite honestly the price could go much higher than that.

I believe most institutional investors are in it for long term gains, rather than swing trading, so it's not all that surprising that they didn't lock in their profits yet. It will be interesting to see what happens once the market gets really crazy though, ie. whether they weather the storm or shed some coins to alleviate the subsequent crash and crypto-winter.




Yeah, I've been noticing the same thing. Lots of small but steady mainstream coverage. Usually that only happened a few months after an ATH was breached, towards the end of the bull market. Now it's more present. Seems like people are keeping a closer eye on Bitcoin these days. Presumably they finally caught on that Bitcoin only comes back stronger after each "death".

So, institutional investors could have dumped their coins in retails for up to x4 profit, but didn't? This is good to know. Also, I'm a bit surprised that retail investors joined the really so quickly, I thought they would do it much later, although it makes sense, because it looks like this time the media is covering Bitcoin's rally much more eagerly than before. I read some general economic news sites, and they report Bitcoin news a few times per day, especially if there's a lot of price action.

In my opinion, in the future we will see bitcoin at $ 50,000 and $ 100,000, however, there will now be a price correction in the market.

Organizations that bought bitcoin for between $ 19,000 and $ 20,000 most likely sold it for between $ 40,000 and $ 41,000 (to lock in their profits).  

I currently expect the price to drop to $ 20,000.  The US political crisis is probably over.  This is another reason for the fall in the price of bitcoin.  

$ 40,000 is a very high price for Bitcoin.  Further price increases are not organic growth.

I suppose you are referring to Stock-to-Flow Model. Just a (probably dumb) question: does it predict a S-curve adoption? Because it doesn't seem to me and I've been seeing that concept mentioned a lot lately.


I believe it is quite likely. Searches show there is no FOMO but it's on the way. Also, in countries with very high inflation like Argentina, Venezuela or Turkey they are at an ATH


Yes, look at how bullish he is: Michael Saylor goes nuts: he predicts a $15 million Bitcoin price.

They are just waiting for the price to go down so that they can buy at a better price and then sell them at a higher rate to make profit.


The correction might not happen , we didn't think about 40k did we ? But it did happen so I believe we won't have such an aggressive correction since the media is flowing with the 100k margin and people are panic buying.

As long as the people hold and the investors continue to pool in it we will have no problem maintaining the stability during the pandemic.

I think the aggressive buying is due to :
Government being foolish, giving excessive stimulus , riots , bad handling of covid cases etc ...they just presumed that soon enough we will have a very bad situation in all the countries and they at least need a stable thing like bitcoins. Even if it's Volatile the government cannot harm much now.

They are just keeping their companies safe and trying to make sure they don't lag behind.

Because of the holidays, presumably? Unlike us retail-coiners, businesses have business hours More interesting would be at which point they continue investing, assuming they haven't done so already.

The coming days will answer your question. we have not witnessed real corrections since we broke the $ 20,000, which is a matter of confusion.
I don't think there is enough money to keep demand high and the price increases.
The positive point is the stability of the price, not as it happened in the year 2017, where the collapse was rapid, which means that we may reach a real evaluation point at 30,000 + or _ within a short period of time, and we may find levels of $ 70,000 in the future.

Does you know why Grayscale stop buying bitcoin?

Yeah, somehow I have a feeling miners aren't exactly holding onto that many of their mined coins--true, some of them could be very bullish on bitcoin and could be waiting for an even higher price to sell at, but these big mining farms are businesses.  They're not really in business to gamble on bitcoin's price like that (that's my guess anyway).

I would imagine that at least some of the coins that the big institutional investors are buying are coming from the miners in off-exchange deals.  In fact I thought I'd heard something about just that a while back.

Anyway, I've been very interested in all of this deep-pocket, big-company bitcoin buying as well, though I haven't been paying attention to it in as much detail as you OP--so I thank you for the info you put into this thread.  It's definitely a seller's market right now because of all the big-boy buying.  I watched a Youtube video with the CEO of MicroStrategy last night, and man is he bullish on bitcoin.  Hopefully the market doesn't crash, because his company would take one hell of a hit on its books if that happened.