This should give FirstAscent a stroke... - page 6.

FirstAscent

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:18:31 PM

So what did he state?

He said this:

Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 06:20:53 PM

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

Do you support his statement? I'm not seeing a lot of confidence from you. Try to answer: yes or no.

myrkul

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:12:51 PM

Well, if the surrounding air heats up around an ice water mixture the mixture will stay at the freezing point of water while it doesn't make any statement about the temperature of the air.

Actually, it does. When the air melts the ice, it transfers heat energy from the air to the ice/water mixture. What do we call it when heat is transferred out of something?

Additionally, what does that say about the temperature of the air/ice/water system?

ElectricMucus

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So what did he state?
He just hinted at some of his derived conclusions and did not refute your argument. But you are guilty of the same tactic.

FirstAscent

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:12:51 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 11:07:53 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:06:04 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:57:51 PM

Are you in or out with regard to the lump of deniers I'm creating who support what myrkul said? I'd like to know.

Actually I am sceptical at both camps. So I would describe myself a sceptic not a denier, but I couldn't resist the temptation of attributing me to that group since the term is so ridiculous.

I'm not asking you if you're skeptical of climate science or not. I'm asking if you support myrkul's statement. Say 'yes' or say 'no' or admit you don't you know enough about the science.

Well, if the surrounding air heats up around an ice water mixture the mixture will stay at the freezing point of water while it doesn't make any statement about the temperature of the air. But if you measure the decay of the ice of the mixture you can extrapolate the temperature of the surrounding air.

Is that your point?

Myrkul made a specific statement. It is typical of his methods of argumentation. Do you support his statement or not? Yes or no.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 11:07:53 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:06:04 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:57:51 PM

Are you in or out with regard to the lump of deniers I'm creating who support what myrkul said? I'd like to know.

Actually I am sceptical at both camps. So I would describe myself a sceptic not a denier, but I couldn't resist the temptation of attributing me to that group since the term is so ridiculous.

I'm not asking you if you're skeptical of climate science or not. I'm asking if you support myrkul's statement. Say 'yes' or say 'no' or admit you don't you know enough about the science.

Well, if the surrounding air heats up around an ice water mixture the mixture will stay at the freezing point of water while it doesn't make any statement about the temperature of the air. But if you measure the decay of the ice of the mixture you can extrapolate the temperature of the surrounding air.

Is that your point?

myrkul

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Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 11:04:33 PM

Quote

Now, let me ask you: Let's assume this heat energy is directly or indirectly added by human action. What do you propose to do about it?

So you're going to defend your statement? I think that's great. Keep it up.

Are you going to answer my question?

And explain why melting ice doesn't absorb heat in your fantasy land?

FirstAscent

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:06:04 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:57:51 PM

Are you in or out with regard to the lump of deniers I'm creating who support what myrkul said? I'd like to know.

Actually I am sceptical at both camps. So I would describe myself a sceptic not a denier, but I couldn't resist the temptation of attributing me to that group since the term is so ridiculous.

I'm not asking you if you're skeptical of climate science or not. I'm asking if you support myrkul's statement. Say 'yes' or say 'no' or admit you don't you know enough about the science.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:57:51 PM

Are you in or out with regard to the lump of deniers I'm creating who support what myrkul said? I'd like to know.

Actually I am sceptical at both camps. So I would describe myself a sceptic not a denier, but I couldn't resist the temptation of attributing me to that group since the term is so ridiculous. Wink

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 11:05:11 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:01:38 PM

Seriously guys lets evaluate the method used in the paper to arrive at these conclusions.

If the method is flawed maybe we will find it and if we can reproduce the results we can verify it. It may be that doing this exceeds out abilities but at least it will be educational in contrast to firing insults at each other from our viewpoints.

Are you supporting myrkul with regard to his statement or not?

I don't think so, but then I haven't followed your debate long enough.

FirstAscent

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 11:01:38 PM

Seriously guys lets evaluate the method used in the paper to arrive at these conclusions.

If the method is flawed maybe we will find it and if we can reproduce the results we can verify it. It may be that doing this exceeds out abilities but at least it will be educational in contrast to firing insults at each other from our viewpoints.

Are you supporting myrkul with regard to his statement or not?

FirstAscent

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Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 11:00:58 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:43:21 PM

Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 06:20:53 PM

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

Let us quote this for posterity as a splendid example of a brainwashed libertarian climate change denier engaging in either manipulative deception or malignant stupidity. I invite any and all who wish to support myrkul in his statement above so that we may aggregate the lot of you into a single group. Don't be so quick to jump on his bandwagon without some consideration of what he's saying though.

Melting ice doesn't absorb heat in your world?

I'm not saying there isn't more heat energy. I'm saying it would make sense that the temperature stays roughly the same, even with the added heat energy, because melting ice absorbs heat energy in changing phase from ice at 32° to water at 32°.

Now, let me ask you: Let's assume this heat energy is directly or indirectly added by human action. What do you propose to do about it?

So you're going to defend your statement? I think that's great. Keep it up.

ElectricMucus

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Seriously guys lets evaluate the method used in the paper to arrive at these conclusions.

If the method is flawed maybe we will find it and if we can reproduce the results we can verify it. It may be that doing this exceeds out abilities but at least it will be educational in contrast to firing insults at each other from our viewpoints.

myrkul

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Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:43:21 PM

Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 06:20:53 PM

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

Let us quote this for posterity as a splendid example of a brainwashed libertarian climate change denier engaging in either manipulative deception or malignant stupidity. I invite any and all who wish to support myrkul in his statement above so that we may aggregate the lot of you into a single group. Don't be so quick to jump on his bandwagon without some consideration of what he's saying though.

Melting ice doesn't absorb heat in your world?

I'm not saying there isn't more heat energy. I'm saying it would make sense that the temperature stays roughly the same, even with the added heat energy, because melting ice absorbs heat energy in changing phase from ice at 32° to water at 32°.

Now, let me ask you: Let's assume this heat energy is directly or indirectly added by human action. What do you propose to do about it?

FirstAscent

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 10:53:05 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:43:21 PM

Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 06:20:53 PM

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

Let us quote this for posterity as a splendid example of a brainwashed libertarian climate change denier engaging in either manipulative deception or malignant stupidity. I invite any and all who wish to support myrkul in his statement above so that we may aggregate the lot of you into a single group. Don't be so quick to jump on his bandwagon without some consideration of what he's saying though.

Hey I am a climate change denier too, how dare you call me a libertarian! Cheesy

Are you in or out with regard to the lump of deniers I'm creating who support what myrkul said? I'd like to know.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 10:43:21 PM

Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 06:20:53 PM

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

Let us quote this for posterity as a splendid example of a brainwashed libertarian climate change denier engaging in either manipulative deception or malignant stupidity. I invite any and all who wish to support myrkul in his statement above so that we may aggregate the lot of you into a single group. Don't be so quick to jump on his bandwagon without some consideration of what he's saying though.

Hey I am a climate change denier too, how dare you call me a libertarian! Cheesy

FirstAscent

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Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 06:20:53 PM

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

Let us quote this for posterity as a splendid example of a brainwashed libertarian climate change denier engaging in either manipulative deception or malignant stupidity. I invite any and all who wish to support myrkul in his statement above so that we may aggregate the lot of you into a single group. Don't be so quick to jump on his bandwagon without some consideration of what he's saying though.

Those so far in support of what myrkul said:

- myrkul
- MoonShadow

fornit

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Quote from: myrkul on January 05, 2013, 06:20:53 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 06:12:03 PM

Please explain how your findings show the Arctic ice has not melted.

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

ouch!
i really want to unsee this posting right now!

myrkul

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Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 06:12:03 PM

Please explain how your findings show the Arctic ice has not melted.

Arctic ice melting actually supports a steady temperature model, because of the phase change cooling. All the water in a glass of icewater stays at 32° until all the ice has melted.

bb113

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Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 06:12:03 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 05, 2013, 06:05:33 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 06:02:47 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 05, 2013, 05:57:23 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 05:52:47 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 05, 2013, 05:49:50 PM

I don't know anything about the arctic ice. I am talking about the one paper I spent a good amount of time over the Christmas break assessing.

One paper? Out of many thousands.

I have a question for you: why do you not know anything about the Arctic ice?

I don't know anything about the arctic ice because I haven't spent the time to learn about it.

So you're basically out of the loop, essentially not seeing the forest for the trees, eh? Feel free to prove through your analysis of a few papers that warming isn't happening, while the world warms around us.

This isn't my position at all. My position is that the degree of uncertainty we have given the data available is many orders of magnitude greater than what is presented in the news, much greater than what was claimed by the authors of the paper I analyzed, and probably greater than what is commonly assumed by researchers in the field (here I extrapolate from my own field and evidence from the one paper).

Please explain how your findings show the Arctic ice has not melted.

They do not show that at all. What they show is that we should not blindly believe what is published in nature.

bb113

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 05, 2013, 06:10:32 PM

Can somebody here evaluate the stochastic model used in the original paper?

What is it called, and how does it work? Before this is done the debate here is pretty much pointless isn't it?
Lets see some formulas guys!

I'm not familiar enough with those methods, but it looks like they are saying that if two things are related (CO2 and temp) then they should be autocorrelated in the same way.
I may have misunderstood though. I do know that if you fit a line to autocorrelated data without accounting for it exaggerates our confidence in the trend since it soaks up the autocorrelation effect.

FirstAscent

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Quote from: bb113 on January 05, 2013, 06:05:33 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 06:02:47 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 05, 2013, 05:57:23 PM

Quote from: FirstAscent on January 05, 2013, 05:52:47 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 05, 2013, 05:49:50 PM

I don't know anything about the arctic ice. I am talking about the one paper I spent a good amount of time over the Christmas break assessing.

One paper? Out of many thousands.

I have a question for you: why do you not know anything about the Arctic ice?

I don't know anything about the arctic ice because I haven't spent the time to learn about it.

So you're basically out of the loop, essentially not seeing the forest for the trees, eh? Feel free to prove through your analysis of a few papers that warming isn't happening, while the world warms around us.

This isn't my position at all. My position is that the degree of uncertainty we have given the data available is many orders of magnitude greater than what is presented in the news, much greater than what was claimed by the authors of the paper I analyzed, and probably greater than what is commonly assumed by researchers in the field (here I extrapolate from my own field and evidence from the one paper).

Please explain how your findings show the Arctic ice has not melted.

Topic: This should give FirstAscent a stroke... - page 6. (Read 7367 times)