Author

Topic: Time series plots of daily merits over boards (Read 278 times)

legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
December 23, 2019, 09:51:30 PM
#8
Let's move further by finding potential outliers (from merit source applications, new merit sources, or shady things).

I only pointed out some potential outliers (daily). You are locals so you do know what happened in your local boards with those potential outliers.
I made analyses for some top local boards only.

1. Russian:
Code:
    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |     687.0      78.5     124.2      60.0      43.0      85.0       8.0    2766.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outliers are days have intra-day merits above 148.
Code:
. di 85-43
42

. di 42*1.5
63

. di 85 + 63
148
Most of outliers occured in 2018.
Code:
     +-------------------+
     |      date   merit |
     |-------------------|
  2. | 25jan2018    2766 |
  3. | 26jan2018    1002 |
  4. | 27jan2018     428 |
  5. | 28jan2018     228 |
  6. | 29jan2018     361 |
  7. | 30jan2018     562 |
  8. | 31jan2018     833 |
  9. | 01feb2018     388 |
 10. | 02feb2018     437 |
 11. | 03feb2018     291 |
 12. | 04feb2018     223 |
 13. | 05feb2018     246 |
 14. | 06feb2018     285 |
 15. | 07feb2018     216 |
 16. | 08feb2018     177 |
 17. | 09feb2018     185 |
 20. | 12feb2018     290 |
 23. | 15feb2018     158 |
 25. | 17feb2018     157 |
 32. | 24feb2018     160 |
 33. | 25feb2018     149 |
 34. | 26feb2018     191 |
 35. | 27feb2018     148 |
 38. | 02mar2018     209 |
 39. | 03mar2018     163 |
 40. | 04mar2018     155 |
 52. | 16mar2018     160 |
 76. | 09apr2018     187 |
154. | 26jun2018     350 |
237. | 17sep2018     247 |
238. | 18sep2018     195 |
240. | 20sep2018     153 |
342. | 31dec2018     163 |
     |-------------------|
413. | 12mar2019     180 |
430. | 29mar2019     232 |
458. | 26apr2019     171 |
462. | 30apr2019     253 |
493. | 31may2019     153 |
576. | 22aug2019     224 |
623. | 08oct2019     170 |
660. | 14nov2019     280 |
662. | 16nov2019     169 |
664. | 18nov2019     176 |
     +-------------------+

2. Indonesian
Code:
    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |     677.0      28.6      33.9      18.0       8.0      36.0       1.0     337.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outliers are days have intra-day merits above 78.
Code:
. di 36-8
28

. di 28*1.5
42

. di 36+42
78
Most of outliers occured in 2018, but in this board, it seems to have more outliers in 2019, maybe from new merit sources.
Code:
     +-------------------+
     |      date   merit |
     |-------------------|
  2. | 25jan2018     337 |
  3. | 26jan2018     265 |
  4. | 27jan2018     165 |
  5. | 28jan2018     109 |
  6. | 29jan2018     211 |
  7. | 30jan2018     125 |
  8. | 31jan2018     175 |
  9. | 01feb2018     170 |
 10. | 02feb2018     174 |
 11. | 03feb2018      91 |
 12. | 04feb2018      97 |
 16. | 08feb2018     125 |
 17. | 09feb2018     147 |
 22. | 14feb2018      95 |
 23. | 15feb2018      85 |
 27. | 19feb2018     109 |
 28. | 20feb2018     185 |
 29. | 21feb2018      80 |
 31. | 23feb2018     119 |
 32. | 24feb2018      97 |
 35. | 27feb2018      88 |
 36. | 28feb2018      84 |
 38. | 02mar2018      92 |
 42. | 06mar2018      81 |
 69. | 02apr2018      82 |
113. | 16may2018      78 |
209. | 23aug2018     109 |
234. | 17sep2018     133 |
247. | 30sep2018      85 |
322. | 15dec2018     156 |
     |-------------------|
353. | 15jan2019     130 |
356. | 18jan2019     108 |
358. | 20jan2019      91 |
372. | 05feb2019      83 |
381. | 14feb2019     138 |
400. | 05mar2019     117 |
426. | 31mar2019     140 |
441. | 15apr2019      96 |
443. | 17apr2019      95 |
445. | 19apr2019     136 |
446. | 20apr2019      81 |
457. | 01may2019      96 |
462. | 06may2019     190 |
465. | 09may2019      78 |
658. | 22nov2019      78 |
671. | 05dec2019      93 |
     +-------------------+

3. German
Code:
    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |     682.0      26.3      37.1      16.0       8.0      29.0       1.0     634.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outliers are days have intra-day merits above 61.
Code:
. di 29-8
21

. di 21*1.5
31.5

. di 29+31.5
60.5
There is a balance of oultiers distributed in 2018, and 2019. I am sure that the German board have some increasing effects from merit sources in 2019.
Code:
     +-------------------+
     |      date   merit |
     |-------------------|
  1. | 25jan2018      72 |
  2. | 26jan2018     118 |
  3. | 27jan2018     123 |
  4. | 28jan2018      93 |
  5. | 29jan2018      88 |
  6. | 30jan2018      70 |
  7. | 31jan2018     103 |
  8. | 01feb2018     120 |
  9. | 02feb2018     130 |
 10. | 03feb2018      99 |
 11. | 04feb2018     130 |
 12. | 05feb2018      76 |
 13. | 06feb2018     119 |
 36. | 01mar2018      80 |
 38. | 03mar2018      62 |
 46. | 11mar2018     130 |
 57. | 22mar2018      79 |
 75. | 09apr2018      90 |
140. | 14jun2018     103 |
168. | 12jul2018      80 |
178. | 22jul2018      61 |
209. | 23aug2018      71 |
215. | 30aug2018      64 |
233. | 17sep2018     634 |
264. | 18oct2018      88 |
268. | 22oct2018     133 |
270. | 24oct2018      89 |
271. | 25oct2018     107 |
272. | 26oct2018      75 |
283. | 06nov2018      63 |
285. | 08nov2018      61 |
289. | 12nov2018      70 |
298. | 21nov2018     109 |
300. | 23nov2018     112 |
305. | 28nov2018      78 |
307. | 30nov2018      71 |
     |-------------------|
348. | 10jan2019     177 |
371. | 02feb2019     113 |
373. | 04feb2019      73 |
378. | 09feb2019     106 |
383. | 14feb2019      76 |
384. | 15feb2019      75 |
388. | 19feb2019      90 |
396. | 27feb2019      62 |
398. | 01mar2019      76 |
425. | 28mar2019     180 |
441. | 13apr2019     152 |
457. | 29apr2019      87 |
459. | 01may2019      73 |
475. | 17may2019      70 |
495. | 06jun2019      85 |
496. | 07jun2019      76 |
516. | 27jun2019      62 |
537. | 18jul2019      94 |
544. | 26jul2019      82 |
566. | 17aug2019     197 |
579. | 30aug2019     161 |
608. | 28sep2019     138 |
645. | 04nov2019     199 |
655. | 14nov2019      61 |
656. | 15nov2019     130 |
657. | 16nov2019      88 |
659. | 18nov2019      66 |
670. | 29nov2019     108 |
671. | 30nov2019      68 |
674. | 03dec2019      72 |
675. | 04dec2019      68 |
677. | 06dec2019     138 |
     +-------------------+

4. Turkish
Code:
    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |     659.0      33.2      74.6      15.0       6.0      33.0       1.0    1434.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outliers are days have intra-day merits above 68.
Code:
. di 33-6
27

. di 27*1.5
40.5

. di 27+40.5
67.5
Most of outliers in Turkish board occured in 2018.
Code:
     +-------------------+
     |      date   merit |
     |-------------------|
  2. | 25jan2018    1434 |
  3. | 26jan2018     412 |
  4. | 27jan2018     187 |
  5. | 28jan2018     197 |
  6. | 29jan2018     211 |
  7. | 30jan2018     305 |
  8. | 31jan2018     129 |
  9. | 01feb2018     162 |
 10. | 02feb2018      88 |
 11. | 03feb2018     164 |
 12. | 04feb2018     106 |
 13. | 05feb2018     201 |
 14. | 06feb2018      84 |
 15. | 07feb2018     138 |
 16. | 08feb2018     142 |
 17. | 09feb2018     407 |
 18. | 10feb2018      68 |
 19. | 11feb2018     256 |
 20. | 12feb2018     110 |
 21. | 13feb2018      68 |
 23. | 15feb2018     483 |
 24. | 16feb2018     165 |
 25. | 17feb2018     142 |
 26. | 18feb2018     163 |
 27. | 19feb2018      70 |
 29. | 21feb2018     107 |
 31. | 23feb2018      70 |
 42. | 06mar2018      76 |
 43. | 07mar2018      73 |
 45. | 09mar2018      71 |
 47. | 11mar2018      89 |
 49. | 13mar2018     123 |
 51. | 15mar2018      76 |
 70. | 03apr2018      70 |
 77. | 10apr2018      92 |
 96. | 29apr2018      73 |
 97. | 30apr2018      88 |
 99. | 02may2018     122 |
101. | 04may2018      82 |
105. | 08may2018     111 |
106. | 09may2018     114 |
127. | 30may2018      75 |
132. | 05jun2018      94 |
137. | 10jun2018      75 |
150. | 23jun2018     180 |
152. | 25jun2018     151 |
153. | 26jun2018     116 |
171. | 14jul2018      91 |
185. | 28jul2018      92 |
207. | 21aug2018     124 |
233. | 17sep2018      88 |
234. | 18sep2018     401 |
235. | 19sep2018      89 |
237. | 21sep2018     120 |
242. | 26sep2018      79 |
249. | 03oct2018      78 |
     |-------------------|
407. | 22mar2019      86 |
468. | 30may2019      92 |
469. | 31may2019     158 |
470. | 01jun2019     108 |
477. | 08jun2019      91 |
493. | 24jun2019     110 |
497. | 28jun2019     126 |
599. | 12oct2019      87 |
633. | 15nov2019     445 |
634. | 16nov2019     208 |
636. | 18nov2019     157 |
637. | 19nov2019      96 |
641. | 23nov2019      78 |
642. | 24nov2019     108 |
644. | 26nov2019      70 |
647. | 29nov2019      92 |
649. | 01dec2019     130 |
     +-------------------+

5. Français
Code:
    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |     614.0      13.9      19.8       8.0       3.0      18.0       1.0     192.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outliers are days have intra-day merits above 41.
Code:
. di 18-3
15

. di 15*1.5
22.5

. di 18+22.5
40.5
There is a balance of outliers in 2018 and 2019, if we ignore early effects of merit system in January and February of 2018.
Code:
     +-------------------+
     |      date   merit |
     |-------------------|
  1. | 25jan2018     160 |
  2. | 26jan2018     166 |
  3. | 27jan2018     131 |
  4. | 28jan2018     112 |
  5. | 29jan2018     105 |
  6. | 30jan2018     192 |
  7. | 31jan2018     138 |
  8. | 01feb2018      69 |
  9. | 02feb2018      69 |
 11. | 04feb2018      44 |
 17. | 10feb2018      47 |
 45. | 10mar2018      50 |
 63. | 30mar2018      50 |
 68. | 06apr2018      51 |
162. | 21aug2018      71 |
185. | 17sep2018      95 |
218. | 25oct2018      51 |
247. | 23nov2018      45 |
265. | 11dec2018      55 |
278. | 24dec2018     103 |
282. | 28dec2018      42 |
     |-------------------|
303. | 18jan2019      46 |
310. | 25jan2019      51 |
314. | 29jan2019      51 |
324. | 08feb2019      45 |
344. | 28feb2019      43 |
345. | 01mar2019      41 |
379. | 05apr2019      45 |
381. | 07apr2019     111 |
382. | 08apr2019      65 |
386. | 12apr2019      43 |
400. | 26apr2019      45 |
414. | 10may2019      41 |
474. | 17jul2019      49 |
584. | 08nov2019      52 |
596. | 22nov2019      49 |
609. | 06dec2019      61 |
     +-------------------+

6. Pilipinas
Code:
    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |     555.0      11.8      18.9       7.0       3.0      15.0       1.0     331.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outliers are days have intra-day merits above 33.
Code:
. di 15-3
12

. di 12*1.5
18

. di 15 + 18
33
Most of outliers occured since the April of 2019. Lots of effects from merit sources in that board, definitely.
Code:
     +-------------------+
     |      date   merit |
     |-------------------|
  2. | 26jan2018      48 |
  3. | 27jan2018      46 |
  5. | 29jan2018      33 |
  6. | 30jan2018      51 |
 72. | 08apr2018      52 |
 75. | 12apr2018      55 |
 85. | 24apr2018      46 |
133. | 19jun2018      64 |
155. | 11jul2018      83 |
     |-------------------|
329. | 26apr2019      36 |
347. | 15may2019      61 |
352. | 20may2019      37 |
370. | 07jun2019      40 |
372. | 09jun2019     331 |
375. | 12jun2019      51 |
376. | 13jun2019      40 |
377. | 14jun2019      48 |
378. | 15jun2019      47 |
383. | 20jun2019      34 |
409. | 17jul2019      39 |
413. | 21jul2019      84 |
420. | 28jul2019      36 |
421. | 29jul2019      65 |
441. | 18aug2019      90 |
478. | 26sep2019      92 |
482. | 30sep2019      33 |
483. | 01oct2019      38 |
488. | 06oct2019      61 |
495. | 13oct2019      34 |
497. | 15oct2019      40 |
500. | 18oct2019      41 |
514. | 01nov2019      55 |
520. | 07nov2019      38 |
522. | 09nov2019      33 |
539. | 26nov2019      61 |
540. | 27nov2019      53 |
     +-------------------+
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
December 23, 2019, 08:34:14 AM
#7
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
December 23, 2019, 08:34:01 AM
#6
If you notice, you can see changes that imply appearances or increases of merit sources in some local boards.
  • I am not going in details, but with a glance at those time-series plots, I have some good signals for changes in Pilipinas, Polski, Arabic, and India boards.

legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
December 23, 2019, 08:33:48 AM
#5
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
December 23, 2019, 08:33:16 AM
#4
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
December 23, 2019, 08:31:47 AM
#3
Decided to make specific plots for some top boards, in terms of medians of merits (daily, weekly, monthly).

Details of stats, please see here: Daily, weekly, monthly merits over boards (24/1/2018 - 11/12/2019)

The spike in Meta boards comes from the Art Contest.
See:



legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
December 23, 2019, 04:14:42 AM
#2
Suggestion: add the link to https://i.imgur.com/XhqxLPk.png to the image, so it can be clicked for the bigger version.
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
December 22, 2019, 09:49:51 PM
#1
  • Period: 24/1/2018 - 11/12/2019
  • Updates: will be made each 6 months, with support to scrap data from @LoyceV.

I only upload the combined time-series plots for all main-boards. For specific plot for your board, please ask me.




Click on the link to get bigger version (Thanks LoyceV): https://i.imgur.com/XhqxLPk.png
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