Topic: Timeline over the next 2 months - page 2. (Read 6684 times)

The first month doubling of $450 to $900:

Half way though, the price has risen $225. $225 to go until June 20.

Right on target.

In 2011 they didn't have the history yet. Now the history gets confirmed more and more each time bitcoin has a peak and trough at 0.4

Still right on target.

Almost half way through the month and almost half way through the first doubling.

I commend your balls for taking a gamble on the price and I actually do hope you are right
Since it will be a new ATH to look forward too

Thanks, looks good, though if they'd sold at 0.4 in 2011, it would have been a mistake.

Check out SlipperySlope's Logistic model spreadsheet on Google Docs.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stephen-reeds-million-dollar-logistic-model-366214

You specifically want to look at this chart:



Rpietila and Slippery buy and sell at ±0.4.

We can't compare fiat and bitcoin inflation. USD inflation is defined in Keynesian meaning - by price index. BTC inflation is defined in austrian meaning - by total number of bitcoins. For user to prefer bitcoin it should have lesser inflation in Keynesian meaning. Which is already there: bitcoin has huge Keynesian deflation because of growing adoption. But there won't be any Keynesian BTC inflation even after BTC will take all the market, because the market itself will grow: World's GDP grows about 6% a year. Therefore BTC's buying power will grow 6%, which is more than BTC's austrian inflation after next halving.

tl;dr bitcoin's inflation rate is already and will always be under fiat's inflation rate.

everyone bought at 1200 dollars have been out for a long time ,and the left are true believers will not sell at 1200, so i think 1200 is not a problem.

That didn't happen with $266 last time.  We blew right through it without stopping.  As if it didn't exist.

April 2013 was a 80% correction (thank to the collapse of MtGox) in 90 minutes.
December 2014 was a 66% correction (the total, final correction, was around 70%).

So I believe the next big correction will be between 50 and 66%. The market is larger and the big actors willing to invest will have larger orders at low levels waiting to be filled just in case the price become a great bargain.
I do not think a 75% or an 80% correction have any serious probability to happen.
It would need a very serious pump and dump and without MtGox who would do it?

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The problem, IMHO, about doing a regression of the price trend is it will not take in account the changes in Bitcoin and Bitcoin ecosystem.
The major change, IMO, is the inflation differential between USD and BTC:
currently the differential is around 5% in favor of the USD, but it is largely compensated by the increase of adoption and demand from new actors entering the ecosystem.
until end 2012, the inflation  rate was > 25% per year for Bitcoin. Come the halving of the reward, it become 12.5% (a bit (10-20%) higher because of always increasing hashing power of the miners).
If you look at the logarithmic chart of the exchange rate, you can trace a line before and after the halving over the lows.
Of these two lines, the second is steeper. Seriously steeper.
This is because the differential of inflation is a lot smaller.

I have doubts the Fed is really tapering the QE. Just moving around the column where it write it.
Or maybe they are just playing bad cop, good cop, with the ECB. The Fed stop QE and the ECB start something to compensate for it. This could explain because Belgium have bought more US Treasury Bonds than its entire GDP in the last few weeks. In essence they are not really stopping QE (inflating the USD and/or € supply).

If indeed inflation of the currency supply is much higher, as actors become aware of this, they will start diversifying from $ and € in limited commodities like gold, silver, bitcoin, whatever govrnment and Central banks can not print in oblivion.

The point of no return will be when the inflation rate of bitcoin will become low enough to always be under the inflation rate of the major currencies (€, $, £, Y, RMB).
People will need to move their currency reserves to bitcoin, just to save their purchasing power.
If you lose 1% every year just not being in Bitcoin and you have millions of USD would you keep all of them or convert a part of them in BTC?
If you lose 1% every year and 20% or 50% because you are not the first to convert them in BTC, how much would you wait?

The next two years, as Andreas Antonopulous foresaw, will be a wild ride. ANd a lot of wealth will be transfered from some to someone else.

Just over $100 rise in the first week. We are right on target.

Do you mean that you think it'll fall back to $2-3K after hitting around $6K? I would have thought it would fall lower than that, maybe to around $1500, but I hope you're right & I'm wrong
.

The scenarios I developed have a similar timeframe.
The only serious difference is the top is between 4K and 6K $.
4K is 9x the long term trend now.
6k is 9x the long term trend in two months.

I will start selling at 4k and sell out at 6K.
The major correction should be between 2-3K $.

This without serious economic troubles.
News of some major economic problem (like with Cyprus) would propel the price higher.

April 2013 top would be a 175-180$ without Cyprus and MtGox.

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

We are still in bear market, and right now, this upward movement is called a A,B,C wave correction until proven otherwise.

If eBay and PayPal implement Bitcoin this year, that is going to make a huge difference for sure. It may also help spark Amazon and other merchants into jumping on board, further pushing the value (as they become more usable) up.

Low volume so far, and the breather we're taking now after just <20% upwards, says differently. Oh, that, and that in this bear market about every major LT indicator gave a bearish signal. It'll take a while to get out of that, I think, but we'll see.

I don't think so. In the last weeks there have be plenty of very good news and a larger adoption is right around the corner. It is as if it's an elastic tensed veeeery much. At the release it wil skyrocket fast and violently.

Agreed. Next bubble inflection point vertex February 2015 (if we're lucky), otherwise fall 2015.

Geez Elwar that's a big prediction, but you have been pretty much on the mark in the past so here's hoping

Re: Where is the money going to come from: Everywhere.

The more people use bitcoin the more people hear about it the more new people use it. It spreads like a ring in a pond.

And as for having a "reason" to buy in? To make money, obviously. Different money men make money in different ways, and some of them will do it the same way we do. Just with bigger numbers.