Is it possible to win in casino? BlackJack, myths, legends and reality.
Just imagine you are going to buy a new car and look through the theft insurance options to choose from. The car costs $100,000. The theft probability is about 0.01% per year, according to statistics. How much are you willing to pay for insurance? We’ll get back to this question a bit later.
Each casino player has got their reasons for gambling, which can be divided into several types, namely entertainment, relax, excitement and thrill, dreaming as well as winning. As for myself, I like to play games which provide a high jackpot, when each bet is a small lottery ticket, which inspires me to dream for a couple of minutes about my potential opportunities. For me it’s some kind of time purchased to “legitimately” dream about different things.
Those players, who intended to win, have used to go through a long journey, full of great ideas, experimentation, joy, frustration and ... mathematics, since only the mathematics is able to provide some reliable chances to win in gambling on long-term basis. It takes some time to realize key concepts, particularly risk management, personal risk tolerance, simple and complex chances probability and combinatorics. as well as probability and mathematical statistics differences, Returns-to-Players (RTP), Bankroll, Risk-of-Ruin (RoR), Wagering Value (WE), House Edge (HE), Expected Value (EV) concepts.
Is it sufficient to realize and to be aware of the above in order to constantly win in gambling? Unfortunately, no.Gambling has been there for hundreds of years. Gambling facilitators, particularly casinos, betting companies, sweepstakes and lotteries have long learned the self-protection against possible fraud, deception and cheating as well as countering themselves from talented players, who might take an advantage of using the loopholes to win in certain game. There are lots of security methods available. Nevertheless, the first and most important one is mathematical game rules and their strict observance, as well.
That being said in a nutshell,
there is no common long-term guaranteed money earning ways available in gambling.
For example, a certain way of playing some BlackJack games types is deemed the most well-known “winning strategy” in casinos among highly-experienced players. Card counting. Just few people are aware of it, but this method is highly popularized in films, books, YouTube videos, articles, guides and forums. I can definitely say that in real BlackJack it is possible to achieve player’s math advantage. In a way, not that easy, still possible.
Basic requirements are as follows:
- Offline casinos only - physical cards and their shuffling.
- 4-8 game decks and reshuffle no earlier than 6.5/8 of card pool.
- The game rules should meet the standard S17-DAS requirements (payments 1-1 in case of Push, 3-2 in case of BlackJack, split on any pair for x2, double for x2).
- The table bets range and discretization should allow a spread of 1-12+
- Total betting limits must be comparable to the target bankroll.
- Skill and some experience in any card counting system and bets management.
It worth noting that it could be quite difficult to find a real casino with tables, which completely meets the above criteria when it comes to a real play session:
- Casinos low-bets zones restrict the spread limit for bets to 1-10, for example, the minimum bet is $10 while the maximum one is $100.
- If the spread is higher, for example $1-$100, the game rules are slightly altered, for example, the payment for BlackJack is 5:4, and not 3:2, etc. Other option - it could be forbidden to split on any pair, leaving just splits on 10-J-Q-K-A, with hitting just one card after split.
- Two terrible ways - Ante for hand or players-losing in the case of Even-Push, be sure to avoid playing BlackJack in this case - this is a pure ripoff.
- One of the modern suppression methods is amount of decks in card pool increase over 8 and reshuffle at only 30-40% of the pool.
In multiple online casinos are used common rules for s in BlackJack. Therefore, for those players, whose gambling awareness is at the level of watching movies, reading relevant books and online casinos-based experience, visiting a real casino, which provides low-bet zones BlackJack tables with modified rules and in premium + tables or VIP – rooms, where the “normal” rules are available, but require some prerequisites, for example to be a regular or well-known visitor and to possess a certain club card level, becomes a great surprise.
But let’s assume you have got all up-to-date live casinos list, which provide normal game rules tables as well as you have a great chance to instantly teleport between them. In other words, let's say you have found a great chance to win in the casino just by finding the right game rules on the correct tables in the right casinos’ halls.
Is this enough to constantly win in gambling or casino? So, you’ve already spent about a year of training (it’s possible to learn Hi-Low True Count + Base Strategy + Bets-Management + Bets-Deviations just for a few months of daily training), you are able to play perfectly due to being aware all the gaming halls which provide the right conditions as well.
Well, unfortunately, that’s still not enough.Lots of people are sure it’s possible to earn money by playing BlackJack the professional way. Professional way currently means doing nothing else but BlackJack, while long term means now, in a month, in a year and and further. In theory it is possible, but the real life tell you otherwise, since the chances are too small. The “long-term” part is where it all collapses. For this particular game strategy, it’s stopped by casinos in a rather simple way:
- Standard BackOff - once the dealer realizes you count the cards and he does it fast, he immediately informs about that, just in a couple of minutes, which results in the following: (a) you will be restricted from the bet change while playing BJ, or (b) you will be prohibited to play BJ at the current casino, (c) you will be asked to leave the current hall or (d) to leave the casino. No one will beat the shit out of you out in dark basement but your game will be immediately stopped for sure.
- Blocked List - most countries require to provide certain ID just to enter casino. There are both gaming companies and data trading associations. Getting BackOff/Ban in several casinos marked “BJ counter”, 100% means you will fail to get into certain casino of the same company (network), 70-90% in the same association casino as well as about 30-40% in other casinos, even if they don’t belong to the same organization or association, since the current data is actively bought and sold on a daily basis.
- CSM, a.k.a. random generator. Continuous Shuffle Machine – these days more and more casinos equip themselves with this cutting edge technology. The key aspect is it dramatically reduces Deck Penetration, the dealer just carefully takes out the cards played and then throws them into the machine after either each one or two or three hands. Full manual reshuffle is completely eliminated from the game while the required 5/8 - 6.5/8 turn into 1/90 or 1/180. Currently the advantage is unattainable, therefore it doesn’t make any sense to counting the cards.
Let’s suppose you managed to overcome all of the above:
- You have been training a complicated card-count system, not just HLTC (Hi-Low True Count) which is easy-to-notice, but for example Revere RAPC or Wong Halves for several years.
- You use your own or advanced betting and deviation to the bets system method instead of using the betting strategies, which haven’t been published everywhere and in each bets strategies brochure.
- You are incredibly enduring, sober, rational and able to apply all the current skills in deeply stressful situations with multiple distractions.
- You have found out a small sub-list of those tables, which failed to have CSM in that secret and current casinos list with appropriate and quite normal game rules, which you have got from the previous sections.
- You have an infinite valid or similar IDs reserve and/or you have learned the way to remove yourself from the counters’ registries and databases.
Is it now enough to win at the casino all the time? Hmm.. you have done quite serious work, but I still have some bad news for you.
This is still not enough, although you are very close to reach your goal.
Now we’ll make a small assumption, which we’ll discuss in more detail a bit later. All the current advanced card counting and alternative deviations systems to the basic game and bets strategy will reduce Backoff chances very much, and with several additional efforts you will decrease that chances a lot. For example you will get the required 3-4 hours instead of 5-10 minutes before BackOff. It is quite hard, but possible within certain terms, which we are going to discuss a bit later.
As you remember I mentioned mathematics and its connection with gambling at the beginning of the current post. Let’s suppose you meet all the criteria listed, namely you play blackjack perfectly on a complex bet-strategy, with all counting and deviations tricks, you have found satisfactory game rules as well as required bets tables and you have got estimated 3-4 hours of play as well. Now, you will need certain money amount for betting.
How much money do you think you need to win at the casino while playing blackjack professionally? The question is a bit philosophical and depends on multiple parameters, primarily on risk tolerance. Let’s look through a benchmark, and say your bankroll is $50,000, for example.
House Edge (HE) - in other words, the casino’s mathematical advantage is “ust 0.48%” while having normal game rules in S17-DAS Blackjack as well as perfectly executed “base strategy”. This is, by the way, the reason for such a great BJ popularity in the world. For comparison, at European roulette HE ~ 2.7%, slots got 2-5%, Baccarat has about 1.5%, while in most poker games the current indicator is about 3%. A comparable figure for most large bookmaker organizations is 1-3% to compare with.
What does House Edge mean? HE = 1% simply means the casino will earn 1% of the games turnover on average, on a large bets number. On the other mathematical abstraction hand, this means that every bet you lose average 1% of the bankroll of your money.
The current indicator is strictly mathematical and depends on the game rules s well as the strictest “basic strategy” implementation by the player within the current game rules. I guess the majority of those, being interested in BlackJack, are familiar with the current table, particularly the actions necessary to be performed while having certain dealer’s cards and hand combination, if not – just google "BlackJack basic strategy" and you’ll be immediately provided with thousands of both articles and picture-tables. And these rules are important to get your lowest HE. For example, you will immediately increase HE from 0.48% to about 0.65% if you just don’t split pairs of deuces against the dealer’s visible four, etc.
HE will be about 3% if failed to follow the basic strategy, but play common Soft-17 rule against the dealer. A real average slightly drunk player provides the casino with an estimated 5% Gross Profit per table while considering the fact that players often play even worse than Soft-17 in real casinos.
I.e. you improve your game by 10 times in comparison with the ordinary player just by being sober and fulfilling the “basic strategy”. But that is not enough. You count cards and change bids when the “deck is in your favor” - you raise bids, when “in favor of the dealer” - you drop to the minimum bet, depending on the bets-system. For this you are required to have the bets spread 1-12, mentioned at the beginning, and then you bet for example, $40, on the “neutral” deck, then decrease to $10 on the “true count minus four”, and rise to $80, on the count +4, raise above +8 and then bet $120, etc. There are a lot of betting strategies related materials available on the Internet.
What benefits does this provide you with? Perfecting the Hi-Low strategy, is able to reduce HE from 0.48% to -1.5%. Negative HE is a player’s advantage. You convert negative HE into the desired EV - Expected Value by certain deviations in both high-betting strategies and a satisfactory bankroll. Skipping some complex calculations, I can definitely say it can really reach 1-2%, depending on both certain parameters and game. Card count strategies are applicable to almost all card games types with both physical cards and decks, not just to BlackJack. BJ provides the lowest HE by default, therefore, the counting provides the most outstanding performance.
EV is about 2%. Is it much or not? It depends on (a) bankroll as well as (b) certain hands played, and as a result (c) the hands speed or amount per hour. Good casino provides on average about 100 hands at a full table per hour. If you play alone with the dealer, the amount can reach up to 300 hands.
$50,000 bankroll can be converted to about $100-125 per hour while having an average professional RoR, equal to about 2.5%, playing BJ-S17-DAS, with a reshuffle of 6.5/8 and at speed 150 hands per hour.
RoR = 2.5% will mean that you will have a probability of about 2.5% entire bankroll loss within a month if playing two game sessions every day for about four hours. Do you remember about the car insurance question at the beginning? RoR definition nature is very individual and does not fit into any system framework. There are certain psychologists works out there, related to the current subject, but they can’t be deemed scientific.
It is important to realize this is not Net Profit yet since you will still have certain expenses, namely flights, hotels, taxis, restaurants, clothes, currency exchange fees in different countries, etc. Remember the assumption about especially agreed 3-4 hours before BackOff? It is achieved in a small team only, at least two or three persons. In practice, three persons team used to play in large casinos, in those of them providing the tables, sufficiently satisfying to the terms, can hope to get a slightly larger “profit” equal to $50k bankroll, due to hands amount increase as well as several tables available during pre-count, while reaching $200+ per hour.
So, we are talking about the expected value (mathematical expectation). But this doesn’t mean getting additional $800 in your pockets every time while playing in casino for 4 hours. But your income will be approximately equal to the hours number, spent playing during each month, multiplied by the expected value (mathematical expectation) a month. It is quite complicated to provide a rate above 160 hours per month due to both fatigue as well as the need to change locations and fit into the staff shifts in casinos as well.
If you are ready to take risks by increasing RoR, for example, from 2.5% to 5% - the income will increase linearly, although in reality it is quite hard to perform since both the tables limits and bets denomination are hard to be changed in order to fit to each player, according to their desire. Therefore, the players have to choose RoR options “available” while adapting to the game’s rules in each particular hall.
A few years of training for three people with a $50k bankroll will provide a theoretical income of the expected $200*160 hours = $ 32,000 which significant part will be used in order to organize the events, flights, transport and hotels. Certain part of funds will be reserved in new bankrolls, another part will be used to pay for contractors as well as and information intermediaries operation.
So, there will be about $15,000 left, which will be divided to pay to each of three team members while providing everyone with both about $5,000 per month as well as certain risk to lose all.
Is it worth it? I mean, Is such individual income sufficient, given both the risks, the need for team training and organization as well as difficulties? Everyone decides this himself.
That’s why I’ve mentioned
“there is no common long-term guaranteed money earning ways available in gambling” at the very beginning of the current post since the scenario about the most famous winning way in wide circles - definitely not “common”, but rather “individual” here is shortly written. Besides it is not “guaranteed” because of RoR.
I should've mentioned that only few teams achieve even this result, even just formal try to do that, from all those who had wanted to and had started on this road.
So, if talking about “individual ways”, there are two players communities, who don’t give up on finding out new ways to beat casinos despite all counteractions.
The first community - “players” - amount is really huge. Lots of players are just dreaming to find out the way to win in the casino. They all are striving achieve this without making any effort. They will be happy to buy any “software”, “training”, “winning strategies”, “secrets”, thereby providing easy money both to scammers and casinos.
The second community is quite small. For example, such little-known bloggers, as DiscountGambling, which has been operating since 2009 while being engaged in learning and analyzing all card games rules found, as well as using simulations on a professional mathematical-statistical software and making HE and EV calculations for them. Some individual scientists, producing monographs on mathematics and considering the games mathematics as the scientific research subject. AskGamblers portal is deemed the largest community. Let's call them “researchers” in order to separate them from those “players”, being mentioned earlier.
Let’s ask ourselves - does it make any sense to do such a research, if there are no guarantees? Well, new casinos are being established every day, new games appear as well as new loyalty programs are being developed regularly, therefore small and almost invisible errors may be available everywhere. “Researchers” are constantly looking for them. Also there are some “errors free” methods and strategies as well, but they mostly relate to sport books and sports poker, although sports poker cannot be deemed a gambling in a since it more relates to chess than cards.
So, all the methods mentioned can be divided into the following:
- Arbitration strategies for both finding and playing sports betting, focused on the difference in odds between different bookmakers, popularly known as “forks”.
- Trading strategies on bets exchanges and totes, focused on the odds difference regarding the event both before it starts and during live.
- Sweepstake bets search and placement within certain circumstances, given the financial leverage use at the required time in order to manipulate the players expectations.
- Search for casino bonus programs “bugs”, when there is an opportunity to get certain non-deposit bonus and then to withdraw it any available way.
- Search for casino loyalty programs “bugs”, when there is certain RakeBack available, which provides a great chance to get certain advantages while playing low HE games.
- Search for math errors in new games, including card ones, first of all, when a negative HE value can be achieved while using the retired cards counting systems.
- Search for events, when some kind of promotional event is held, within which the awards amount provides certain advantage in comparison with the participation conditions, for example, BlackJack “fan-tournaments”, which imply the award amount to provide the winner with certain advantage in EV.
- Search for small lotteries (of all types, including raffle), which imply the legal advantages to be achievable due to the bets volume in comparison with other players.
It should be clearly realized the new “ways” found are not published, but are secretly exploited by those who found them, with seldom exceptions. These topics relate to both speculations and frauds, including fake stories and secrets sale to players. Well, tbh usually this is quite murky theme.
Also, I totally exclude from this review any illegal methods, like hacking, botting, abusing etc.
Mostly real methods a usually legal, but founded ways just effective before they are fixed or prohibited by developers or service organizers since all gambling services providers reserve the right to refuse the customers to be provided with their services without any explanation. Therefore, long-term stories amount is too low.
So, the conclusion here is
“there are no long-term winning strategies out there”. No matter “common” or “individual”. But with a certain approach, good mathematical skills plus some experience, bankroll availability, discipline, as well as reasonable RoR acceptance and awareness of your own risks could be considered as a reasonable background and may evolve into a kind of hobby later. That being said, “Researching” might be a way to entertain yourself , but never the method of long-term guaranteed income.
P.S. Why all this? Because nowadays hundreds of new gambling projects appeared. With grow of interest to blockchain and cryptocurrencies, all these crypto-casinos, quasi-casinos, coin games, totes and other gambling become a new “fuel” for “researchers”. And there is some interesting stories available, and I gonna post them a bit later, just because this very first article happened to be huge and I’ve decided to split all material into several posts instead.
