To what extent are Russians capable of storing their riches in Bitcoin?

wxa7115

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Quote from: nullama on February 28, 2022, 06:23:46 PM

The storage of wealth should have happened long time ago, at least before their currency halved in value.

Today they still have the option to provide goods and services for Bitcoin though.

True, we need to prepare ourselves before the storm comes, because once it does then it is already too late to do anything, those that were smart enough to see that something like this could happen had years to prepare themselves for this event and most likely they are the ones that are benefiting the most, or at least they are the ones that are losing the least.

But anyone hoping to exchange their rubles for any other currency will find out they will not only have to deal with the accumulated losses sustained by the currency already, but they will also need to pay a premium in order to exchange their rubles, after all who is buying rubles at the moment instead of selling them?

dothebeats

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It'll be hard for Russian residents to acquire bitcoin at this point. Their banking system has been disconnected from most parts of the world, and if they were to buy bitcoin they would have to do p2p deals which is hard considering the value of the Ruble going down so hard. They would have to find for workarounds in order to get crypto, but idk if people outside Russia would still like to deal with the said currency.

Quote from: Kakmakr on March 04, 2022, 03:40:19 AM

Putin will never seize the funds from his own citizens, because he needs no rebellion under his own citizens when he is fighting a war against the Ukraine. He can however seize the funds from people that appose him and those who are not willing to fight in this war. Roll Eyes

If worse comes to worst for Putin, he might as well just do that and just threaten the population. People would likely just comply and not risk dying, but history tells us that that is not always the case.

Kakmakr

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Putin will never seize the funds from his own citizens, because he needs no rebellion under his own citizens when he is fighting a war against the Ukraine. He can however seize the funds from people that appose him and those who are not willing to fight in this war. Roll Eyes

I think the average citizen will only withdraw their funds from the Banks and then be able to transfer it to some foreign exchange to be able to convert it to Bitcoin. (Using the local exchanges will be stupid, because the government can block those accounts)

I will also not leave the bitcoins on the foreign exchanges, because the Russian hackers will start to target these exchanges. My advice will be to convert the bitcoins and then withdraw it from the exchange and to keep it on a paper wallet or a hardware wallet. (Cold storage)

Eatfaster

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I think it takes not only events, but also time. Residents accepting bitcoin as a safe-haven fund requires too many conditions that can be trusted. I think the design of bitcoin is not ready to exclude anyone. Whoever has the opportunity to trust Bitcoin deserves to own Bitcoin.

kryptqnick

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I think that for now, selling rubbles for cryptos should be possible (but I don't know that in practice and I can see online that, even if it is, it's harder than it used to be), especially since Russian crypto exchanges are largely in the grey zone (not something official). If I had rubles, I'd go for cryptos right now. If I didn't believe in Bitcoin, I'd go for USDT. Fiat doesn't have the stability people expect it to have when something like what has happened occurs, but stablecoins can still provide some guarantees, compared to ruble. And not all Russian banks are out of SWIFT. In fact, the biggest of them aren't, I believe.

NelfiNovita

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Looks like people in Russia will not collect Bitcoin at a time like this.
Maybe only for people in Russia who will exchange their Bitcoins to fiat currencies because of the very complicated circumstances that they are today. Russian people need fiat money for their daily needs because Russian people can only work in their country. Several countries have already repatriated some Russian residents to their families in Russia, Russian people who work abroad will lose their jobs so this is what makes Russian people sell their Bitcoins to meet their daily needs.

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on March 03, 2022, 11:09:54 AM

Situation is changing very fast, there are rumors that putin plans to turn Russia into a North Korea style dictatorship. If that happens, I don't think crypto will be legal in Russia, despite the most recent legislation.

I don't know how they can ban cryptocurrency. It's unlikely to be North Korea, more likely to be something like China with bans on most of the internet. But banning cryptocurrency is not going to happen here. More than 40 years ago, Russia criminalised speculation in foreign currency and the sale of Western goods. For example, a box of gum could land you in prison for several years. But you could always buy dollars or jeans in the centre of any big city. The same will be true of cryptocurrency.

hatshepsut93

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Situation is changing very fast, there are rumors that putin plans to turn Russia into a North Korea style dictatorship. If that happens, I don't think crypto will be legal in Russia, despite the most recent legislation.

vickyes

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There are still very few people who know who bought Bitcoin, but it is undeniable that this is an important event that drives the evolution of cryptocurrencies forward.
At least now some people are starting to think about how to effectively hedge funds.

killerfrost

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The flexibility in trading is partly due to the way they look for the right place for the asset. Personally, I'm leaning towards the possibility that sanctions on Russia will change the face of the economy Russia has built. It's really sad that BTC is responding to these issues, but it happened anyway, and hopefully in the future it will be back to normal.

Ozero

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Quote from: e_abrams on March 01, 2022, 12:44:19 PM

So before the war in Ukraine started Russia reached the decision to recognize BTC as a foreign currency and not a digital asset. Putin has commented that the central bank and the government will be working together to reach a consensus. This is not exactly legalization but not exactly a ban either. Either way, I imagine a lot of Russians stored their money in crypto.

You only refer to the intention in Russia on February 18 to submit to the State Duma a new bill that will regulate cryptocurrency, and for violation of its strict rules, according to this bill, criminal liability will be established. There is much to rejoice. Putin has already promised many things both to his people and in the international arena. And when he didn't fulfill what he promised, he promised again, but in a different way. Therefore, apparently, from the promised people of Russia can only count on criminal liability.
Due to the military invasion of Ukraine, Russia is now losing about $20 billion every day due to sanctions. The seven largest banks in Russia are cut off from SWIFT. 70 percent of assets are blocked abroad. The civilized world closes the sky for Russia, refuses to buy its goods and imposes an embargo on Russian goods. Citizens of Russia now need to think about how to avoid hunger, they will not be able to eat bitcoins, and their ruble is already turning into paper.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: Fortify on March 01, 2022, 03:03:16 PM

You came up with the ultimate irony, that there is currently little means for Russians to do this even if they wanted to right now. I'm not sure what Russian cryptocurrency exchanges are active but with Visa and MasterCard now banning their transactions it leaves few methods to fund bitcoin purchases. Besides that, Russians are more used to storing their wealth in dollars or gold in times of crisis - but the exchange rate they'll get right now is much lower than last week. Sadly all Russians are going to have to pay for Putin's murdering rage.

I see no irony here. No matter what wants one to purchase, if his money is locked in a crippled banking system, he cannot do much.
And the window of opportunity - e.g. actual sellers of Bitcoin for the plummeting RUR - may be closing; after a certain level of inflation it may become bad business to sell no matter how big the premium is.
I also don't think that XAU or USD can be bought in "better conditions".

Yes, sadly the Russians pay for this and may do for long time. But it's their own president, their own army invading there. And the polls tell that 50% of the Russians do agree with this war.

Fortify

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on February 28, 2022, 06:34:21 AM

Quote from: BenjaminGlover on February 28, 2022, 06:23:22 AM

However, is this even possible? What would a Russian do in this situation? Are they able to just transfer their Rubles to exchange, purchase Bitcoin, and then transfer it to a wallet?

Since Russia banks are out of SWIFT, Russians will not be able to transfer their rubles to most of the exchanges, hence I think that they don't have much of other choices than finding other individuals inside Russia willing to sell Bitcoin for RUR.

Quote from: BenjaminGlover on February 28, 2022, 06:23:22 AM

And, if so, is it attainable? Will someone who has worked their entire lives and saved money for their family's future trust a strange technique to transfer that money to a USB stick?

Bitcoin price has quite a history of going up and down. One needs to have been reading and trusting Bitcoin for long term - the past charts show that for minimum 4 years it was usually a good investment.
But right now? No. One may need to access the money "tomorrow". Also, as I said, it won't be easy to find sellers.
Right now Russians would better exchange their fiat in any other currency. But I think that they've already missed that train too...

PS. Keeping the private keys/seed on an USB stick is unsafe. Paper or steel are better, usually kept in multiple places.

You came up with the ultimate irony, that there is currently little means for Russians to do this even if they wanted to right now. I'm not sure what Russian cryptocurrency exchanges are active but with Visa and MasterCard now banning their transactions it leaves few methods to fund bitcoin purchases. Besides that, Russians are more used to storing their wealth in dollars or gold in times of crisis - but the exchange rate they'll get right now is much lower than last week. Sadly all Russians are going to have to pay for Putin's murdering rage.

e_abrams

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So before the war in Ukraine started Russia reached the decision to recognize BTC as a foreign currency and not a digital asset. Putin has commented that the central bank and the government will be working together to reach a consensus. This is not exactly legalization but not exactly a ban either. Either way, I imagine a lot of Russians stored their money in crypto.

Flexystar

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Though SWIFT is out of option I think they will still go for p2p options as it won’t need SWIFT. They can choose from hundreds of wallets available through online platforms. Debit and credit cards are still gonna work in the Russia as it won’t be affected by SWIFT as of now. Apart from this, wallets like payeer, PayPal, AIRTM, and some Chinese apps will surely workout the whole trading thing.

We have actually advanced so perfectly in the payment system that we ourselves created lot of loop holes.

So I don’t think they could really stop transferring the funds into crypto. It’s easy if they think.

TribalBob

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Quote from: BenjaminGlover on February 28, 2022, 06:23:22 AM

Bitcoin appears to be an obvious solution for preserving your wealth in this circumstance.

I don't think so, bitcoin is not a solution if war continues, there will be many impacts that will be obtained by the Russian people if the value of the ruble is increasingly worthless, bitcoin is difficult to trade if their internet dies, the best way to make peace between russia and ukraine

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on March 01, 2022, 03:43:01 AM

Don't rule out completely the option that some Russians may need to sell BTC for fiat (RUR, USD, EUR) for their daily spending.

Quote from: ABCbits on March 01, 2022, 04:42:04 AM

While i agree with your logic, i managed to find some BTC seller who accept RUB at HoldHodl[1]. But obviously the rate isn't fair. At time of writing the post, those seller charge 4-30% higher.

[1] https://www.hodlhodl.com/offers?search=1&side=buy&country=RU&include_global=checked&price_currency=RUB

As per above for @NeuroticFish I don't rule out from the start poeple selling BTC for RUB, since pretty obvious poeple have been doing so both in Venezuela and Turkey despite the huge depreciation of the currency but my point was that this is limited, you can't have billions worth of BTC suddenly changing hands and the few with serious connections through bank accounts and exchanges are able to slowly convert fiat to BTC and sell it while jacking up prices (as per your example) bit by bit, till it reaches the point of equilibrium.

Probably less than half of the pump is driven by this but at the same time, I don't exclude breaking 50k in a matter of days, even if it's not real demand and more likely FOMO.

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Quote from: Zlantann on March 01, 2022, 08:07:42 AM

Russians would be willing to store their wealth in any other means, be it gold, Bitcoin, properties or foreign stocks. But anyone acting now is acting a little bit late. This is because the rubles has already lost 30%. But it could be smart one now because as long this invasion continue the currency will still loose more value

Anyone accepting the Russian currency now is venturing into a risky long time investment. He is hoping that someday, maybe after the war the Russian economy will bounce back and its currency would regain value. But selling Bitcoin for the Russian rubles is not a bad investment because Russia would surely bounce back.

This is their options for now because there are limitations toward using their currency outside their country and even if they are on their own country still they can feel their economy starting to fall down due to the increasing sanctions of their own currency.

Now they are into bitcoins but for sure others are now thinking more ways to make their money safe and avoid to get decreased in value due to this incidents.

Zlantann

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Russians would be willing to store their wealth in any other means, be it gold, Bitcoin, properties or foreign stocks. But anyone acting now is acting a little bit late. This is because the rubles has already lost 30%. But it could be smart one now because as long this invasion continue the currency will still loose more value

Anyone accepting the Russian currency now is venturing into a risky long time investment. He is hoping that someday, maybe after the war the Russian economy will bounce back and its currency would regain value. But selling Bitcoin for the Russian rubles is not a bad investment because Russia would surely bounce back.

tyz

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Quote from: BenjaminGlover on February 28, 2022, 06:23:22 AM

And, if so, is it attainable? Will someone who has worked their entire lives and saved money for their family's future trust a strange technique to transfer that money to a USB stick?

Look at the Waves-Token price. The prices has risen by 100% in the last seven days and over 40% today alone. Most of all top 100 coins. Waves has a Russian origin (but is a international project today) and from this origin there is still a good Rouble <-> BTC integration on a cheap, easy to use decentralized exchange. It is clear that many Russians are trying to get their money to safety this way at the moment. Other options, like centralized exchanges, are currently inaccessible for most Russians due to the sanctions and SWIFT limitations.

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