Topic: To what level will Bitcoin fall after reaching $100K (or higher)? (Read 1082 times)

No matter how low did Bitcoin drop from the highest ? Yet this will happen  again maybe In the future but not this year as we have seen how high it reached this year and how much is the lowest up to now .
And besides I don't care about how much it fell but instead how much it will grow this year or the next .

If that's the case, it will affect to the mooning as well. Only thing that troubles me, is that we are focusing on the worth of bitcoin, and not the actual tech. And with we seem to be happily sacrifice the core fundamentals for altar of greed. We want our leaders and influencers to adapt it so much that we now rely on them, and fear rejection because it affects the price. And we want our institutional investors, so we happily jump trough any regulatory loop, and there's now just too much money involved not to fight regulations. We are under a microscope and more the value rises, more under a thumb we will be.

If doesn't even matter who is president or who is in charge, unless we have a dictator in charge, because bitcoin would crumble under a dictatorship if we have put all the power in their hands before that.

It's about fighting corruption vs not fighting corruption. And regulations are the only way to go when fighting it.

Before there wasn't as much money involved, corruption wasn't really a problem. People just mainly used cash money, and all the money laundering focus was on cash. No one even thought that this would become as big, that governments would get involved, so there wasn't a plan for the fact that people would artificially centralize the whole thing around the value and because of that, also around the governmental oversight. And hell with the fundamentals.

At some point, fundamentals of it could be mostly lost, and some people will point out that emperor has no clothes, and it's hard for me to even think what happens then. Will people just trust the value because they don't completely understand what happened? It's a tool against repressive dictatorships to move value without banks involved, but what if USA for example becomes to that dictatorship? We have a presidental candinate that admires dictators and say how smart they are.

Now most of the value at this point is based on the governmental acceptance of bitcoin and because of that, we have institutional investors. And if country like USA would reject it, because trump's enemies use it, and he wants to have his own coin or something silly like that, imagine what happens then. Bitcoin is a democracy in action, it's users accepting the right chain, trump doesn't believe, or understand democracy. This will become a problem under his rule.

Normally the price of BTC is difficult to predict, because Basically things are always very unstable and unexpected, yes, we hope for the best, letting ourselves be surprised is what many are looking for,  but we can also hope that the next ATH will surprise us and maybe reach $80k and from there nothing more will happen  , there you see the concept that it is a rise , a new ATH and a cycle of a new ATH is fulfilled, even for that scenario we must be prepared, because how much is what we are used to? to a higher ATH, and well I hope that it happens that way, very juicy , very high and incalculable for now, but we must keep that scenario in mind.

Looking at previous cycles after the bull season ends and the bear season begins, bitcoin typically dumps 70%-85% of its value from its ATH. But I also think that with the approval of ETFs and the participation of traditional institutional investors, I think the correction of bitcoin will be significantly reduced. It's hard to give a specific number because we don't know what bitcoin's highest ATH was in this cycle but I think the maximum drop of this cycle is 30%-50%.

I believe bitcoin will move like the stock market and will be more stable. We will no longer see the massive bitcoin dumping like before and this may make some people regret it but also others enjoy it.

The huge volatility is one of the things that makes bitcoin so interesting, it would be sad if that volatility went away.

How low Bitcoin would drop after hitting $100K was hard to say, but the current trends meant that the drop may not be as steep as in previous cycles. I would say that $30k would be the lowest it can fall. While sharp corrections have always occurred with Bitcoin, this time around, there may be some cushioning to fall, given the maturing market and increased investor confidence. It simply means there could be a possibility for a dip after $100K, but it may not crash like before, assuming major players are holding their positions.

Large corrections are typically part of bitcoin's price cycles, but impending bear markets may be less extreme according to some analysts, with institutional interest on the rise and Bitcoin ETFs gathering steam.

This is true, the bigger the increase the bigger the fall. Do you know the reason why this happens? The main reason is the "wall", because support will not be covering just one place, and let alone having multiple places. When price spends a lot of time in a single place, then we are going to have huge walls not only a bit lower, but also a lot more lower and there would be plenty of walls to break for the price to crash, not that it can't but the longer you are at some place, the harder it becomes.

But when the price increases like crazy, then it is going to be something terrible for the support, because you won't have too much walls anywhere and when it tries to go down, the yare not facing any trouble and just going down without interruption too much.

Remember 2022 bear period, it didn't go from 70k to under 20k within few days, but did fall 10k in a day, and another 10k in another day. Because it didn't have any support that is keeping it high, because it wasn't established yet.

If we can spend years above 100k then yeah we could keep it going above 100k but we won't and it will fall and we will not be ready for it and this is why we will see a lot more lower prices and very quickly.

Importantly we should know that the price of Bitcoin is usually influenced by some factors which is such that we can control because it's mostly beyond the control of retail traders and investors, so we can't tell but speculate what the price could fall to because the last time, it happened thia was the first time Bitcoin had such fall and since then its not been that bad so its very likely that it may not happen again but we still have to do our own research and stick to our own strategy so as to stay profitable in the markets.

sometime the harder the rally goes, the harder as well the dump will happen.

but arguably last bearish, it was so bad due to the collapse of certain company . if there's nothing like that in this bullrun around I doubt market will dump as much, I see more and more pattern of stability with BTC after the approval of ETF and right now ETF has been a big thing, the hype just didn't fade. MSTR as one of the big bitcoin holder also keep gaining massive increase in valuation.
things might be different this time around that maybe BTC price will stabilizes if it reached $100k, who knows, but one thing for sure, BTC market cap just keep going closer and closer to gold.
at some point I think BTC will lose its volatile nature.

Well we have been guided before, I don't know if you will remember the S2F model before in 2021, it came outside but it was heavily discussed it here and members here are like 50/50 or in the fence about that modelling prediction and they were right because it predicted that we will be reaching $100k in 2021, but the highest that we got is around $69k (which has been broken in this cycle already).

So as much as we want to listen to different speculation in this bull run, we should really be open as to how big it will be. Or worse, can he really reach 6 digits? So everything is wide open and the best thing is to just accumulate and hold and not sell our Bitcoin. Be observant and expect the unexpected.

We can't possibly know about these, these are all in theory talks and we can't just keep on trying to figure out what will make this tick working. I understand you may not feel the best welcome about this right now but we need to make sure things aren't always that crazy looking, there are many things that will not be too simple for us to understand so the best thing to do right now would be just keep trying to deal with what we can reach, which is the all time high in the near future.

I know it doesn't look that crazy right now and we are talking about just about 20% or so increase and not that far away, but even that would be more realistic thing to look for. If you keep looking for something much bigger then you are not going to get the best out of this situation. This is why I keep trying to do the best I can do, and because of this I try to do get the best I can get, and this turns out to be a fine situation for me, I do not get much in return about worrying.

Maybe we don't want to be guided by the predictions and speculation of Bitcoin experts outside the forum, as you said at several points, maybe it can be used as our own speculation where we often see the phenomenon after a new halving/ATH occurs and is created, this will lead us to think that after that Bitcoin will experience a significant drop in value as has happened.

Personally for my speculation, maybe I can say the price of Bitcoin will fall to the level of $50k or $30k, that's not happening now, maybe next year or the year after, I think so.

I do not believe we are going to see 4k ever again, that was long long time ago and can't make a come back at all. Remember, our latest bear run was in 2022 and not in 2018, and during 2022 we have seen the price crash to about 15-16k prices if I am not wrong, which is five times bigger than last bottom.

I believe we are not going to be five times higher than 5k, because that would be lates t all time high, but I do not believe we are going to see under 50k ever again after we start the bull run. I am not saying right now, we can still crash right now, which I doubt we will but I am not planning on seeing that part. I am saying we are going to have hard time seeing under 50k after the bull run starts. So if you ever see bitcoin price at 100k+ then be sure under 50k is no longer possible.

 Bitcoin is a volatile coin and the Op said it himself that it has gone as low as $3,709k in 2018,  so there's always a good chance of it going low again even if it surpasses the $100k mark but to place a particular figure on it will be hard. My wildest guess will be around $60-70k.

Maybe we should even start from where we are currently, as the market remains as more volatile like before, there is more likeness on seeing the market before the end of the year to go dip but not lower than $55,000 while before the end of this year also, we are expecting to see the market getting to more than $100,000 but before any of these could come to pass, we have to first understand the reason on why we should be more sensitive on the current pattern and direction in which it is taking before any of the shift.

Please note: The 2018 high was much closer to ~$20K.

Most financial bear markets historically lose ~85 to 90% of their previous value, and BTC's early ones followed a similar pattern, so the last one ended higher than expected. If the BTC market gets close to $200K this time, then a low of $20 to $30K is possible, especially when the evil Tether scam finally collapses into a stinking pile of lies.

You are right, but usually the distribution period in BTC is usually fast, that is, the new ATH arrives and remains for a short time, then the price falls, of course as they sell BT or do so very quickly and then the offer is not so clear, people already think they bought at the most expensive moment and as they saw that it did not rise any more they abstained from buying, that is very common, that is why sometimes a fall can be very strong and hard, other times a correction occurs and the price continues to rise, that is why we must analyze very well when the price rises how the conditions are in the world, wars and important fundamentals.

Apart from selling actions there are still other activities that can prompt the price of Bitcoin to fall immensely like some negative news might turn out in the future just like it did in the past and caused commotion in the price of Bitcoin before the price came back stronger. When we talk about selling actions affecting the price of Bitcoin it's mostly when bigger investors sells that it do have a great impact but if it is just about minor investor's selling it can't lead to a heavy correction.

However, Inasmuch as investors have different investments targets, the market will continue to experience rise and fall since as people are buying more, the price increases and when they sell the price reduces. Demand and supply is what makes the market to be balanced so if the demand is lower definitely the supply will also be lesser and it won't have much positive impact in the price. But when the demand is higher, the supply increases and it will have a great positive impact in the price as well.

Selling action at a certain price will definitely occur, but it is always difficult to predict exactly how much selling pressure will be at that time. We are quite used to people taking profits when bitcoin's new ATH is reached, so a correction is very unlikely to be avoided. Even if there is buying interest at that time, the strength may not be as great as we hope, as a result demand and supply are not balanced.

Such a situation must be based on the experience that occurred when Bitcoin made its last ATH, then there was a fairly deep correction. Indeed, no one can predict whether market demand will be strong enough to maintain the price of Bitcoin when it touches $ 100k or not. because there will be quite a lot of traders and investors who might sell when that price is reached.
Correction will definitely be unavoidable, but hopefully, the market's ability is strong enough not to fall too deep.

Bitcoin is an asset that is traded 24 hours non-stop with high trading volume. The price is volatile and it is very possible for it to rise 5% in one day and fall 5% in the same day. The price of bitcoin is very volatile and anything can happen. You are right about the bitcoin market habits, every time bitcoin rises high then a price decline or correction will follow from behind.

In fact, traders and investors who have benefited from the increase in price will sell their bitcoins. The greater the selling pressure, the easier it is for bitcoin to see its price fall. But either way, it is difficult to say anything definite about its price regardless of its past trading history.